Introduction to Sustainable Development Lecture A.
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Transcript of Introduction to Sustainable Development Lecture A.
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Introduction to Sustainable Development
Lecture A
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Purpose of the Course
Introduce the Concept of Sustainability as the Foundation of Future Society
Provide a Foundation for Understanding and Implementing Sustainability Principles
Show the Importance of a Sustainable Community as the Key Concept
Indicate Methods for Implementing Sustainability in Various Social and Economic Sectors
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Reasons for this Course Humankind is profoundly affecting the Earth:
Destruction of ecosystems and biodiversityGlobal environmental problems: greenhouse warming,
ozone depletion, toxification, soil erosion, emissionsMass movements of materialsIntroduction of biological agents: estrogen mimickers,
genetically engineered productsHumankind does not understand or appreciate
the role of ecosystems for our health and in our economy
Humanity may be crashing the critical planetary ecosystems
How do we change direction at this critical point in time? Globally? In Poland?
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Proposed Solution -BrieflySustainable development or sustainability“Development that meets the needs of the
present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” [World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987; Our Common Future (Brundtland Report)]
Balancing environment, economy, and society’s needs
Sustainability Clarified: Satisfying lives for all within the means of nature—now and in the future. [Redefining Progress, 2002, www.rprogress.org]
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Some New Vocabulary
SustainabilitySubstitutabilityDeep EcologyFactor 4 and Factor 10Carrying CapacityEcological FootprintEcological RucksackAdaptive ManagementEcological EconomicsEnvironmental EthicsClean Production Industrial EcologyEco-efficiencyMIPS
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The Twin Problems: Population and Consumption
Human population has been growing exponentially since the beginning of the industrial revolution (1.7%/year)
Industrial production has also been growing at an exponential rate (3.5%/year 1970-2000)
World fertilizer consumption is doubling every 15 years. Total use now is 15 times greater than the end of WWII.
In this century, consumption of energy and materials will increase by a Factor of 12 (2000-2100) if growth in population continues at the same ratesBeyond the Limits to Growth, Meadows, Meadows, and Rander
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World Population Growth
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World Population Growth
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World Demographic Transition
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Population Growth over Time
1650: 0.5 billion 0.3%/year DT=250 yrs1900: 1.6 billion 0.5%/year DT=140 yrs1970: 3.6 billion 2.1%/year DT= 34 yrsResult: Superexponential growth, the rate of
increase is increasing1990: 5.4 billion 1.7%/year DT= 42 yrs2000: 6.0 billion 1.7%/year DT= 42
yrs
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World Industrial Production
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Percent Change in Industrial Production from Previous Year
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World Fertilizer Use 1950-2000
Year Total106 tons
Per PersonKg
1950 14 5.5
1960 27 8.9
1970 66 17.8
1980 112 25.1
1990 143 27.1
2000 141 23.2
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Worldwide Growth in Selected Activities 1970-2000
1970 2000
Population 3.6 billion 6.1 billion
Automobile Production 22.5 million 40.9 million
Oil consumption 2,189 MTOE 3,332 MTOE
Natural gas consumption 1,022 MTOE2,277 MTOE
Coal consumption 1,635 MTOE2,034 MTOE
Wind Energy Capacity(MW) approx 0 18,100
GDP ($-1999) $16.3 trillion $43.2 trillion
GDP ($-1999/capita $4,407$7,102
AIDS Deaths approx 0 21.8 million
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Key Lesson about Growth Rates
Apparently small growth rates have massive consequences
World population growth rate is ‘only’ 1.7%
Buy means 78 million new people per year
World population doubled since 1960!
Why?
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Doubling TimesGrowth Rate, %/year Doubling Time (years)
0.1 700
0.5 140
1.0 70
2.0 35
3.0 23
4.0 18
5.0 14
6.0 10
7.0 7
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Example: Nigeria’s Population
Population growth rate: 2.7%/year
Year Population (millions)
1990 118
2014 236
2038 472
2062 944
2086 1,888
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Rule of 72
72/Growth Rate in %/year = Doubling Time in Years
Nigerian Example: 72/2.7% = 26.7 years
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One more example: Paper!
Double a sheet of paper: the thickness is doubled.
Double the sheet of paper 40 times: how thick is it?
Thickness = 0.5 mm x 240 = 0.5 x 1.1 x 1012 = 5.5 x1011 mm
= 550,000,000,000 mm = 550,000 km
= distance from the Earth to the Moon!
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Impact=Population x Affluence x Technology
I = P x A x T
Impact (throughput) of a population on the planet’s sources and sinks equals the population times its affluence times the damage done by the technologies supporting the affluence. Environmental impact/person
Source: Paul Ehrlich
IPAT Formula
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Affecting IPAT OutcomesPopulation (P) : family planning, female literacy,
social welfare, role of women, land tenureAffluence (A) :
Capital stock/person: values, prices, full costing, what do we want?, What is enough?
Material throughput/capital stock: product longevity, material choice, minimum materials design, recycling/reuse/recovery, scrap recovery
Technology (T) :Energy/material throughput: End-use efficiency, conversion
efficiency, distribution efficiency, system integration, process redesign
Environmental impact/Energy: Benign sources, scale, siting, technical mitigation, offsets
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Some Evidence of Real ProblemsHumans are coopting 40% of terrestrial and
30% of aquatic Net Primary Production (NPP) (Vitousek et al 1986))
Humans are coopting 26% of all evapotranspiration and 54% of available water runoff, a net of about 30% of all the solar powered hydrologic cycle (Postel 1997)
Humans are moving 2x more material than all natural forces combined (Schmidt-Bleek 1997)
Atmospheric CO2 has risen from 290 ppm (early 1880’s) to 315 ppm in 1958, 345 ppm in 1990, 369 ppm in 2000
Falling grain production
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World Grain Production 1950-2006
YearTotal106 tons
Per PersonKg
1950 631 247
1960 824 271
1970 1,079 291
1980 1,430 321
1990 1,769 335
2000 1,840 303
2006 1,984 303
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What is Sustainable Development?_ Sustainable development is development that meets the
needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs [World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987; Our Common Future (Brundtland Report)]
_ Agenda 21: In order to meet the challenges of environment and development, States decided to engage in a new global partnership ... sustainable development should become a priority item on the agenda of the international community [UN Conf on Env Dev, Rio de Janeiro, June 1992]
_ ... is nondeclining human well-being over time [David Pearce, Economics of Sustainable Development, 1994]
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More on Sustainable DevelopmentA particular system that when considered in
isolation has a positive balance in relation to its own costs and benefits (Ravetz 1992)
Improving the quality of life within the carrying capacity or supporting ecosystems (WCU 1991)
The use of energy and materials in an urban area in balance with what the region can supply continuously through natural processes such as photosynthesis, biological decomposition, and the biochemical processes which sustain life (Lyle 1994)
Something is 'sustainable' if it has the capacity to continue. (Sustainable London)
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Lester Brown (Worldwatch Institute)
Over the long term for sustainability:Species Extinction <= Species EvolutionSoil Erosion <= Soil FormationForest Destruction <= Forest
RegenerationCarbon Emissions <= Carbon FixationFish Catches <= Regeneration Capacity
of FisheriesHuman Births <= Human Deaths
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Key Points
Sustainability is concerned with future generations, intergenerational justice, resources, environment
Three systems must be maintained in healthy a healthy relationship: ecological, social, and economic
Natural systems hold the key to human sustainability
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The Systems
Natural (N) Social (S)
Economic (E)
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Proto-Sustainable Systems
N E
S
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Truly Sustainable Systems
NE S
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Paradigm Shifts
NOW FUTUREConsumption ConservationDepletion StewardshipDivided IntegratedCentralized LocalArtificial NaturalUnhealthy HealthyLinear CircularImpersonal CommunityBland AestheticRights Responsibilities
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What is the connection between...?
Social problems– erosion of the family– educational system quality – crime and prisoners – decaying cities
Economic problems– unequal distribution of wealth– shift of productivity income, workers to
capital owners– technology driven “creative destruction”
Environmental problems– loss of natural capital: rainforest– greenhouse warming and ozone depletion– loss of soil, over-fishing, over-grazing, over-
foresting
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Thinking Sustainably: Observe Nature
There is no such thing as waste Live off current solar income Respect and foster diversity
A key lesson from this course!
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General Sustainability Principles
minimize resource consumption, use of non-renewables, pollution, toxics, waste
maximize efficiency, reuse, recycling, renewable resource use
foster conservation, understanding of natural systems functions, economic justice
focus on quality v. quantity, needs v. wants
redesign the economy and artifacts to mimic natural systems
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Waste = Pollution = Inefficiency = Lost $
Positive Correlation: environmentalism & economic prosperity
Germany– environmental technologies– environmental policy = economic policy– improved environmental quality =
improved competitiveness Japan
– 40% less energy in steel production than US, far less air pollution
– defy conventional wisdom– Research Agency of Innovative Technology
for the Earth: international competitiveness
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Perverse Economics Environmental damage actually add to GNP Depletion of natural resources adds to GNP (+ tax
credits!!) The polluter hardly pays Waste disposal is heavily subsidized Maximum ROI drives corporate decisions Discount rate maximizes today’s
consumption/depletion
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Strong vs. Weak Sustainability
Refers to different schools of thought
Strong: natural capital is irreplaceable
Weak: natural capital is substitutable by manmade capital
More discussion when we cover economic concepts
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SummaryExtraction of resource and environmental
damage continuing and even acceleratingWe are rapidly destroying adapted,
diverse ecosystems crucial to both our economy and our survival
Growth as a basic assumption of the economic system is mathematically and physically impossible
Sustainability can help us change course to live within the constraints of nature with a high quality of life, to change our thinking.
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“The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them.” - Albert Einstein