Introduction to Statistics and Data...

43
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 1 Introduction to Statistics and Data Analysis

Transcript of Introduction to Statistics and Data...

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

Chapter 1

Introduction to

Statistics and

Data Analysis

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

Section 1.1

Overview:

Statistical

Inference,

Samples,

Populations, and

the Role of

Probability

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 3

Introduction to Statistics

and Data Analysis

Why Study Statistics?

Answers provided by statistical approaches can provide the

basis for making decisions or choosing actions.

For example, city officials might want to know whether the

level of lead in the water supply is within safety standards.

Because not all of the water can be checked, answers must

be based on the partial information from samples of water

that are collected for this purpose.

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 4

Introduction to Statistics

and Data Analysis

Why Study Statistics?

As another example, a civil engineer must determine the

strength of supports for generators at a power plant. A

number of those available must be loaded to failure and their

strengths will provide the basis for assessing the strength of

other supports. The proportion of all supports available with

strengths that lie below a design limit needs to be

determined.

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 5

Introduction to Statistics

and Data Analysis

When information is sought, statistical ideas suggest

a typical collection process with four crucial steps.

(a) Set clearly defined goals for the investigations.

(b) Make a plan of what data to collect and how to collect it.

(c) Apply appropriate statistical methods to extract information

from the data.

(d) Interpret the information and draw conclusions.

These indispensable steps will provide a frame of reference throughout as we develop the key ideas of statistics. Statistical reasoning and

methods can help you become efficient at obtaining information and making useful conclusions.

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 6

Introduction to Statistics

and Data Analysis

Use of Scientific Data

History

• The Japanese Industrial Miracle The Japanese were able to succeed where other countries had failed-

namely, to create an atmosphere that allows the production of high-quality

products.

Much of the success of the Japanese has been attributed to the use of

statistical methods and statistical thinking among management personnel.

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 7

Introduction to Statistics

and Data Analysis

The Role of the Scientist and Engineer in Quality

Improvement

W. Edwards Deming (1900-1993) was instrumental in the rejuvenation of

Japan’s industry. He stressed that American industry, in order to survive,

must mobilize with a continuing commitment to quality improvement.

• From design to production, processes need to be

continually improved.

The engineer and scientist with their technical knowledge and armed with

basic statistical skills in data collection and graphical display, can be main

participants in attaining this goal.

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 8

Introduction to Statistics

and Data Analysis

The quality improvement movement is

based on the philosophy of:

“make it right the first time.”

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 9

Introduction to Statistics

and Data Analysis

1.5 A Case Study : Visually Inspecting Data to Improve

Product Quality

This study 1 dramatically illustrates the important advantages gained by appropriately

plotting and then monitoring manufacturing data. It concerns a ceramic part used in

popular coffee makers. This ceramic part is made by filling the cavity between two dies

of a pressing machine with a mixture of clay, water and oil. After pressing, but before

the part is dried to a hardened state, critical dimensions are measured. The depth of the

slot is of interest here.

Because of natural uncontrolled variation in the clay-water-oil mixture, the condition

of the press, differences in operators and so on, we cannot expect all of the slot measure-

ments to be exactly the same. Some variation in the depth of slots is inevitable but the

depth needs to be controlled within certain limits for the part to fit when assembled.

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 10

Introduction to Statistics

and Data Analysis

1.5 A Case Study : Visually Inspecting Data to Improve

Product Quality

Slot depth was measured on three ceramic parts selected from production every half

hour during the first shift from 6 A.M. to 3.P.M. The data in Table 1.1 were obtained

on a Friday. The sample mean, or average, for the first sample of 214, 211 and 218

(thousandths of an inch) is:

From a prior statistical study, it was known that the process was stable about a value

of 217.5 thousandths of an inch. This value will be taken as the central line of the chart.

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 11

Introduction to Statistics

and Data Analysis

1.5 A Case Study : Visually Inspecting Data to Improve

Product Quality

It was further established that the process was capable of

making mostly good ceramic parts if the average slot

dimension for a sample remained between the

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 12

Introduction to Statistics

and Data Analysis

1.5 A Case Study : Visually Inspecting Data to Improve

Product Quality

It was further established that the process was capable of

making mostly good ceramic parts if the average slot

dimension for a sample remained between the

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 13

Introduction to Statistics

and Data Analysis

1.5 A Case Study : Visually Inspecting Data to Improve

Product Quality

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 14

Introduction to Statistics

and Data Analysis

1.5 A Case Study : Visually Inspecting Data to Improve

Product Quality

What does the chart tell us?

The mean of 214.3 for the first sample, taken at approximately 6.30 A.M., is

outside the lower control limit.

Further, a measure of the variation in this sample:

range = largest − smallest = 218 − 211 = 7

is large compared to the others.

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 15

Table 1.1 Data Set for

Example1.2

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 16

Figure 1.1 A dot plot of stem

weight data

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 17

Figure 1.2 Fundamental relationship

between probability and inferential

statistics

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

Section 1.2

Sampling

Procedures;

Collection of Data

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 19

Table 1.2 Data Example 1.3

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 20

Figure 1.3 Corrosion results for

Example 1.3

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

Section 1.3

Measures of

Location: The

Sample Mean

and Median

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 22

Definition 1.1

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 23

Definition 1.2

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 24

Figure 1.4 Sample mean as a centroid

of the with-nitrogen stem weight

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

Section 1.4

Measures of

Variability

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 26

Definition 1.3

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

Section 1.5

Discrete and

Continuous Data

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

Section 1.6

Statistical

Modeling,

Scientific,

Inspection, and

Graphical

Diagnostics

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 29

Table 1.3 Tensile strength

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 30

Figure 1.5 Scatter plot of tensile

strength and cotton percentages

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 31

Table 1.4 Car Battery Life

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 32

Table 1.5 Stem-and-Leaf Plot of

Battery Life

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 33

Table 1.6 Double-Stem-and-Leaf

Plot of Battery Life

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 34

Table 1.7 Relative Frequency

Distribution of Battery Life

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 35

Figure 1.6 Relative frequency

histogram

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 36

Figure 1.7 Estimating frequency

distribution

Many continuous frequency distributions can be represented

graphically by the characteristic bell-shaped curve of Figure 1.7.

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 37

Figure 1.8 Skewness of data

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 38

Table 1.8 Nicotine Data for

Example 1.5

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 39

Figure 1.9 Box-and-whisker plot

for Example 1.5

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 40

Figure 1.10 Stem-and-Leaf plot

for the nicotine data

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 41

Table 1.9 Data for Example 1.6

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 - 42

Figure 1.11 Box-and-whisker plot

for thickness of paint can “ears”

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

Section 1.7

General Types of

Statistical Studies:

Designed

Experiment,

Observational

Study, and

Retrospective

Study