Introduction to Connected Cars and Autonomous Vehicles

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Connected Cars and Autonomous Vehicles A guide for happy motorists and contented passengers 1 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles Part 1 Introduction to the world of Connected Cars and Autonomous Vehicles

Transcript of Introduction to Connected Cars and Autonomous Vehicles

Page 1: Introduction to Connected Cars and Autonomous Vehicles

Connected Cars and Autonomous Vehicles

A guide for happy motorists and contented passengers

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Part 1 Introduction to the world of Connected Cars and Autonomous Vehicles

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About this presentation

2

This presentation was given to students and academic staff on March 28th 2017 at the University of Portsmouth.

©2017 Astius Technology Systems Ltd

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Bill Harpley MSc

• 30+ years in technology sector

• Founder of Astius Technology

• Organizer of Brighton IoT meetup group (700+ members)

• Initiator of Brighton node of the global Things Network

• Organizer of the Self-driving Cars & Autonomous Vehicles meetup group

https://uk.linkedin.com/in/billharpley

[email protected]

www.astius.co.uk

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1. The evolution of Connected & Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs)

2. An overview of Advanced Driver Assist Systems (ADAS)

3. User Experience and Safety issues

4. The benefits of CAVs

5. The influence of public policy

6. The global race towards deployment

7. Emerging opportunities from data

8. Obstacles to market development

9. What the future holds

10. Social and political impact

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Evolution of Connected & Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs)

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A century of innovation

• Both the Model-T of 1910 and the Tesla electric car of 2016 represent truly

transformational technologies.

• Expect the evolution from ‘manual’ to ‘connected’ vehicles to be every bit as

revolutionary as the shift away from ‘horse powered’ transport more than a

century ago.

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Key milestones towards driverless cars

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1950s

•RCA Labs steer model vehicles using embedded tracks

•General Motors Firebird concept car

•Chrysler Imperial is first car with cruise control

1960s

•UK Transport Research Lab develop driverless Citroen car

•Ohio State University launch project to develop driverless cars, activated by electronic devices embedded in the road

•Stanford University develop AI Laboratory Cart

1970s

•Funding for UK Transport Research Lab experiment withdrawn in 1970s

1980s

•In US the DARPA funded Autonomous Land Vehicle project launched

•EU EUREKA Prometheus’ driverless vehicle research project launched in 1987

1990s

•In 1994 Daimler Benz developed two cars which drove alongside regular traffic on a 3-lane Paris highway

•In 1995 CMU NavLab experiment drove van across the U.S. , with autonomous control 98% of the journey

2000s

•DARPA Grand Challenge programme begins in 2004

•Google launches its driverless cars project in 2009

•First autonomous transcontinental journey in 2010 from Parma (Italy) to Shanghai (China)

Research into driverless vehicles started in the 1920s

When driverless cars become mainstream post-2030 it will be the culmination of a century-old dream.

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Progress towards full autonomy

Society of Automotive Engineers: standard SAE J3016 defines six classes of vehicle automation.

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Levels of Vehicle Automation

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Technology Timeline

Multiple generations of technology will co-exist on our roads for many years.

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Overview of ADAS technology

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Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS)

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What is ADAS?

ADAS can be thought of as

a set of technologies

which provide improved

safety to the driver and

other road users:

• LIDAR • RADAR • Embedded Vision • GPS and Digital Mapping

We will talk about these in

detail in Part 2 of the lecture

Examples of ADAS applications

Cruise control

Assisted parking

Collision avoidance

Vehicle navigation

Assisted lane changing

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During the course of the next few slides

we will focus on collision avoidance

mechanisms for CAVs

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Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V)

Radar for hazard detection

Status message

V2V messages must be securely transmitted and processed. Reliable Encrypted Authenticated Ensure privacy (no tracking)

Vehicles transmit status messages to each other to improve traffic flows and increase safety. “Traffic jam ahead” “I have just put the brakes on” “Ice on the road ahead”

Secure these wireless links

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Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I)

“Spaces available in Broad Street car

park”

“Road works ahead”

“Traffic lights not working at junction

ahead”

ROADSIDE UNITS Status messages can be transmitted from kerbside infrastructure to warn of delays, hazards or provide useful advice to travellers.

“Road ahead closed. Turn left at junction”

Secure these wireless links

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Vehicle-to-Person (V2P)

Pedestrians and joggers

Horses (and other animals)

Cyclists, scooter riders and other 2-wheeled transport

Non-vehicular road users can indicate their presence by sending status messages to oncoming vehicles

Secure these wireless links

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Example: Nissan Leaf

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Nissan Leaf cars avoid collisions by utilising 12 cameras, five radars and four lasers to enable them to identify surrounding objects and calculate their position on the road to within a few centimetres.

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ADAS in Action

• ‘Tesla Autopilot predicts collision ahead seconds before

it happens’

– Watch this dashcam recording from within a Tesla car

of a road incident in the Netherlands

– http://www.kurzweilai.net/tesla-autopilot-predicts-

collision-aheads-seconds-before-it-happens

• Thanks to @HansNoordsij , an enthusiastic

champion of Tesla Model S and Nissan Leaf

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User Experience and Safety issues

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The handover problem

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Partially autonomous

Fully autonomous

EVOLUTIONARY

Car will handover control to the driver at critical point in journey or in event of an emergency.

REVOLUTIONARY

All decisions are made by the car. There is no requirement for human intervention at any point in the journey.

There are two approaches to the vehicle autonomy problem

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EVOLUTIONARY :: Controlled handover

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Corresponds to Level 3 of SAE taxonomy

Favoured by companies such as Tesla, Audi

How it works • Car has significant

decision making capabilities.

• It must handover control to driver in order to deal with critical events.

Disadvantages • Handover to

human may take 5-10 seconds.

• Driver needs to be fully alert and ready to take control.

• Simple idea but difficult to implement in practice

Criticisms • Level 3 has only

incremental benefits over Level 2. So may as well jump to Level 5.

• Humans can place too much faith in auto-control and become complacent

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REVOLUTIONARY :: Full vehicle autonomy

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Corresponds to Level 5 of SAE taxonomy

Favoured by companies such as Waymo, Volvo, Uber

How it works

• Car has complete autonomy over decision making.

• No requirement to handover control to driver at any point in the journey.

Advantages

• Brings mobility to people who cannot drive.

• Creates entirely new business models around mobility and vehicle ownership.

Criticisms

• Technically difficult to achieve.

• There are significant legal and regulatory issues to be addressed.

• Will take many years to implement

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User Experience (UX) for automotive applications is an extremely important focus for R&D. We will have more to say about this topic in Part 2, after we have discussed Safety standards.

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The benefits of CAVs

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The global opportunity

Connected Cars market represents major growth opportunity

• Markets & Markets estimate value of global market to be worth $47 billion by 2020 ( ~ £38 billion at today’s rate)

Greater public safety

•WHO state there were 1.25 million road deaths globally in 2013

•More than 200,000 people die through traffic accidents every years in China alone!

Major economic and social impact

•Reduction in accident injury and mortality costs

•More ‘free time’ for car users

•Changes in urban land use

It all amounts to a major global stimulus for R&D in this sector

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The UK opportunity

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Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)

commissioned a study from KPMG which claimed major benefits for the UK economy over the period 2014-2030

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Audience poll

• You have heard the impressive claims for the social,

economic and environmental benefits of CAV technology.

• QUESTION: what percentage of cars on the road

need to be fully autonomous (driverless) before we

can reap significant benefits of this technology

A. When 25% of all vehicles are driverless

B. When 50% of all vehicles are driverless

C. When 75% of all vehicles are driverless

D. When 100% of all vehicles are driverless

E. Never, it’s just too complicated

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The influence of Public Policy

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The role of UK Government policy

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What are the challenges

faced by UK policy makers?

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Policy challenges (1 of 2)

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Safety Testing

Privacy and Data

Insurance and Liability

Rules of the Road

Supporting Infrastructure

Need to work with EU and Automotive industry to develop standards

Devise rules for testing autonomous vehicles on public roads

Connected cars create vast quantities of data. Who owns it? Who has the right to use it?

Future infrastructure must support CAVs. Who will own it? Who will fund it?

Need to work with Insurance industry to develop framework for CAVs on public roads

Revise the Highway Code and define penalties for infringement

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Policy challenges (2 of 2)

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Cybersecurity Telecoms Regulation

Environmental Ethical Considerations

Social Impact

Electric Vehicles

OFCOM needs to develop policies which support growth of CAV market

Policy for Electric vehicles must be developed in parallel to CAV evolution

There is a growing threat of malicious attacks on CAVs and transport infrastructure

There is a need to develop a public debate on the ethics of autonomous vehicles

Foresight studies are required to understand the future impact of CAVs in cities and rural areas

We need policies to ensure that the environmental benefits of CAVs are maximised

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Policy development is a balancing act

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There is a need to plan over long time-scales ( to 2030 and beyond)

Government needs to build consensus as to what regulations are in the public interest

Be careful not to stifle innovation with “too much” regulation in early stages of market

Government must arbitrate between claims of many competing stakeholder views

Harmful policies

Helpful policies

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The strategic UK policy goal

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The Government has defined its key policy goal as

making the UK an attractive place for R&D

“The UK is one of the best countries for car makers and others to develop and test these technologies because of our: ● permissive regulations ● thriving automotive sector ● excellent research base and innovation infrastructure”

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Key policy initiatives

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2014 • Regulatory review

by Department of Transport

• £10m funding of driverless trials in Milton Keynes, Bristol, Greenwich

2015

• £200m funding for 'Intelligent Mobility' announced in budget

• “Pathways to Driverless Cars” policy document

• “Code of Practice for Testing Autonomous Vehicles” published

• Announced £20m competitive fund to stimulate R&D

• Established the ‘Centre for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles’ (CCAV)

2016

• New rounds of competitive funding announced by Innovate UK

• CCAV publishes results of consultation

• Key research reports published on CAV and traffic flow

2017

• Government publishes the Vehicle Technology and Aviation bill (second reading on March 6th)

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Mission of CCAV

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Mission of the Centre for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles

Devise a strategy to better inform Government decision making about CAVs

STRATEGY

DEVELOPMENT

Provide a single point of contact within Government for all external stakeholders

ONE-STOP SHOP

Ensure that Government funded projects meet key policy objectives

FUNDING

CO-ORDINATION

Review & amend regulations which may impede development of CAV sector

REGULATORY

REVIEW

Promote dialogue to reach consensus on Safety, Data Security and Privacy

CRITICAL

FACTORS

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Key authorities and projects

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Funding and oversight Demonstration Projects

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LUTZ Pathfinder vehicle

Used in the driverless trials in Milton Keynes

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Global perspectives

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USA

Ann Arbor trials began in 2012 conducted by University of Michigan

• Aim was to test the effectiveness of installing collision avoidance technology in vehicles to reduce accidents on the road.

• Trial was supervised by the University of Michigan Transportation & Research Institute.

• Motivation was to reduce traffic accident fatalities (~32,000 p.a. in U.S.). Wireless vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) technology employed to reduce the number of collisions between vehicles. – Can detect sudden braking of vehicle in front. – Sensor units were installed in 3000 vehicles.

• Wireless vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I ) technology was deployed at major road junctions.

– Static sensors and responders prevent collisions between vehicles and kerbside infrastructure.

• Initial trial cost $18m dollars to conduct and was judged to be a success

– it was subsequently expanded to include 9000 cars, buses and trucks.

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USA

• May 2015 DoT have mandated that V2V technology be fitted into all new vehicles, starting in 2016.

• September 2015 DoT have announced budget of $42m for a 'CV Pilot Deployment Program‘

• Extension of the Ann Arbor trial to New York, Tampa, Wyoming (east-west highway)

• New York City installed Vehicle to Vehicle (V2V) technology in vehicles that frequently travel in Midtown Manhattan, and Vehicle to Infrastructure (V2I) technology throughout Midtown. – Up to 10,000 cars and buses will be fitted with this technology

during the next year.

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USA

• MCity – dedicated CAV test site built by University of Michigan

– Cost $6.5 million to build

– Large 32 acre site

– Opened in July 2015

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MCity is a collaboration between:

• Transportation Research Institute • Michigan Department of

Transportation • Automakers - Ford, General

Motors and Toyota

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China

• Most of auto-industry is stated owned (often has foreign partners)

• Boundary between “public policy” and “private projects” can seem blurred (to an outsider!)

• Some commentators suggest that China has the potential to overtake the U.S. in driverless car research and development – China’s government has the ability to direct lots of capital into research. – limit or eliminate exposure of researchers and car makers to lawsuits

• First large scale commercial launch of fully driverless cars on public roads may happen in China

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China

• Hongqi HQ3 driverless car - modified sedan built by the National University of Defense Technology

• Employs cameras, sensors and onboard computer (did not use GPS)

• In 2011 this car navigated the route between Changsha to Wuhan

– 157 mile trip ( 248km ), three-and-a-half-hour drive

– Included navigating through highway traffic at an average speed of 54 miles per hour

– It overtook 67 cars on the journey

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China

• Yutong driverless bus trial (August 2015)

• Bus navigated between Zhengzou and Kaifeng – Distance of 20 miles (32km) with

passengers onboard

– Bus uses laser, radar, and camera systems on each side of the vehicle

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Germany

• Germany a significant player in the global automotive sector – Sector spends €34 billion on R&D – German R&D accounts for one-third of all global research expenditure on automotive technology

• Federal Ministry of Transport launched an “Automated Driving” Round Table in 2014 – Aim was to solicit input from broad range of stakeholders

(e.g. Insurance, Government, Auto-makers)

– Modify legal framework to permit testing on public roads (Germany is signatory to 1968 Vienna Traffic Convention)

– Focus currently on transition from “partially automated” to “highly automated driving”

– Emphasis on gradual evolution of technology

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Germany

Daimler driverless truck trial (Sept. 2015)

• Trial conducted on specially designated stretch of autobahn near Baden-Wurttemberg

• Required approval from the local state authorities

• Manually driven to trial and then switched over to auto-drive

• Reached speeds of 50mph (80km/h)

• Requirement that a human operator be on board to handle emergency situations.

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Germany

Wuppertal test zone ( started trials in 2016 )

• U.S. auto-component maker Delphi employs 700 people in the city

• Delphi is a major supplier of “Vehicle-to-Everything” collision avoidance technology

• Given approval by Wuppertal city authority to build a 17km long stretch of “test highway” – The special zone along public highway 418 will offer a realistic

mix of driving situations (e.g. fast stretches, traffic lights and pedestrian crossings)

– Requirement that a human operator be on board to handle emergency situations

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How does UK compare?

Level of resources committed by UK Government is dwarfed by countries such as China, Germany, U.S. and corporations such as Google (Waymo)

U.S. and China less hampered by ideology when it comes to promotion of strategic industrial goals

Most charitable assessment is that Government is being brutally realistic about what it can achieve

UK unlikely to be a major player in this market as it is arguably over-dependent on inward investment and overseas R&D

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Dawn of a new age

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The Declaration of Amsterdam

In April 2016 the Transport ministers of all EU nations gathered in Amsterdam. The purpose of the meeting was to sign an agreement which commits all member states to a common agenda that will allow autonomous vehicles to be driven on the roads of Europe.

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Emerging opportunities from data

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The automotive data lake

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Connected and autonomous vehicles (cars, taxis, trucks, buses) are

expected to generate great lakes of data

Image source: Intel

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The value of automotive data

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$750 billion

The overall value of car

data revenue may be worth

by 2030

Source: “Monetizing car data”, McKinsey (September 2016)

CAUTION: take this estimate

with a pinch of salt

There are many legal, privacy

and regulatory hurdles which

constrain these ambitions.

For this reason, a degree of

healthy scepticism is advisable.

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Potential applications

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Here are a few examples of Big Data applications built using automotive data

Real-time traffic management

Parking availability

Vehicle performance data

for predictive maintenance

Data to inform road

maintenance

Tailored in-car advertising

PAYG insurance policies

Location based retail

promotion

Resale of aggregated data

Real-time navigation

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A role for AI and machine learning

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Artificial Intelligence (AI) is already used in automotive applications such as Smart Parking, Driver alertness monitoring, Automated lane changing.

Audi and Nvidia have announced partnership to bring AI-controlled car to market by 2020 (SAE Level 4)

Audi virtual cockpit Audi AI test vehicle

Other auto-makers such as BMW, Volvo, Toyota and Mercedes are exploring use of AI / ML in connected cars

These types of AI applications employ neural networks. These need to be trained using large data sets, hence a role for Cloud Computing and Big Data.

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Obstacles to market development

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Data Privacy

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Who ‘owns’ data generated by (and within) a vehicle?

How much say should people have about personal data is used?

Should people be concerned about ‘anonymised’ data?

Does it matter in which jurisdiction data is stored?

Who should have access to this personal data?

These are a sample of the many issues that must be addressed.

The forthcoming EU General Data Protection Regulations will provide new safeguards to protect personal data.

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Trust in technology

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How do you feel about being driven by a robot chauffeur?

How would react if your child was killed by a self-driving car?

What if you think driving is “fun” and you hate driverless cars?

Perhaps you fear gridlock due to massive cyber-attacks?

How would you feel if you learned that personal data had been stolen?

What if driverless cars destroyed your means of livelihood?

There are many valid reasons to mistrust Connected and Driverless cars.

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Infrastructure needs

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Maximum benefit of CAVs will require significant investment in new road and

communications infrastructure

LONG TIME-

SCALES FOR

PLANNING AND

OPERATIONS

CAVs NEED

UNIVERSAL 4G

AND 5G MOBILE

COVERAGE

BILLIONS OF £

WORTH OF

INVESTMENT

REQUIRED

NEED FOR GLOBAL

AGREEMENT ON

STANDARDS

• 10-20 years to plan and build

• 30+ years of operational life

• Technology will evolve rapidly in that time frame

• Risk of economic isolation for ‘unconnected’ communities

• What policy interventions are required?

• Who will pay for infrastructure?

• Who will own the infrastructure?

• What operating models will be used?

• Need for detailed pan-European framework

• Desirable to have broad international agreement

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Cybersecurity

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Rigorous cybersecurity technologies and policy frameworks are needed to

protect connected vehicles and infrastructure.

PROVEN

ATTACKS

MULTIPLE

MOTIVES

THEFT

OF DATA

INFEASIBLE

TO TEST

Potential for major invasions of personal privacy and abuse of stolen data.

There have been a number of well documented attacks on connected vehicles (such as the Jeep and Tesla attacks)

Sheer complexity of software and hardware in CAV designs mean that it is impossible to guarantee safety and security.

Numerous criminal, activist groups and nation states involved in large scale cyber-hacks.

UK lags well behind other countries in developing policies to defend against

cyber-attacks on connected vehicles and transport infrastructure.

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Ethical questions

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Source: http://moralmachine.mit.edu

The MIT Moral Machine website allows you to work through these kind of issues for yourself.

A dog funs out into the road, followed by a

distraught child. What should the driverless

car do?

1. Run over the dog (and spare the child)

2. Run over the child (and spare the dog)

3. Swerve left onto the pavement (and risk killing pedestrians or collide with a lamp-post)

4. Swerve right and risk collision with oncoming vehicles

This is a legal and ethical minefield!

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Insurance and liability

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The insurance industry faces many disruptive challenges. These are driven by: • Rapid technological

changes • Changing demographics

• Shifting social attitudes towards car ownership

LIABILITY FOR

ACCIDENTS

BUSINESS

MODELS

CLAIMS

PROCESSING

VEHICLE SHARING

Driver of ADAS vehicle will still need insurance. Liability for driverless cars will shift to manufacturer.

Onboard tracking units have enabled insurers to offer ‘Pay per Trip’ insurance coverage.

Onboard vehicle “black box” will record data which led up to an accident. Simpler claims resolution.

Insurance B2C market may contract over time due to declining car ownership and rise in car sharing.

Most commentators predict that the global insurance industry will be forced to adapt to this new future. Expect some established players to ‘disappear’.

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Audience poll

• You have learned about a number of issues which will

impede the adoption of driverless cars

• QUESTION: having heard the evidence, which of

these issues to you feel is the No.1 show-stopper?

1. Data privacy

2. Trust in the technology

3. Regulations

4. Cyber security

5. Ethical questions

6. Insurance and liability

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What the future holds

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The future of urban mobility

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PEAK CAR

URBANISATION

ELECTRIFICATION

AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES

Driverless cars, vans, trucks, taxis, buses and rail transit systems will revolutionise urban transport networks.

A number of global factors are reshaping the future of urban mobility

Rising population and growth of mega-cities has created major challenge for urban mobility. • Air Pollution • Congestion • Traffic

accidents

‘Peak car’ usage may have already happened in some developed countries.

Demand for car ownership continues to rise in developing nations.

Electrification of urban transport vehicles requires: • Installation of

charging points • Upgrade in

capacity of local electricity grid

• More clean sources of energy

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Mobility as a service

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Mobility Services

Bike rental

Ride hailing

Ride sharing

Buses Light rail

Walking

Cycling

RECOMMENDATION Think about the role that CAVs could play in a broader redesign of urban transport systems.

• Smartphone apps provide better transport service information

• New business models give rise to services such as ‘Ride hailing’ of driverless cars

• Better access to travel information promotes easier ‘multi-modal’ journeys

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The car of the future

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https://www.toyota.com/concept-i/ http://www.discover-sedric.com/en/

All major motor manufacturers are developing futuristic ‘concept cars’.

Here are two examples from Toyota and Volkswagen.

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The taxi of the future

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There seems to be universal consensus that driverless taxis are the way forward.

In fact, they are already being trialled in major cities around the world.

http://nutonomy.com/

nuTonomy ( Singapore ) Uber (Pittsburgh, USA)

http://uber.com

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The transport revolution

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Driverless trains on metro networks and light rail systems have been around for

many years. But now the stage is set for a major Transport Revolution.

Driverless buses

Driverless trucks Rolls Royce autonomous ship Commuter drones

Hyperloop

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Social and political impact

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Economic impact

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INNOCENT BYSTANDERS

THE DRIVERLESS ECONOMY

Millions of unskilled workers around the world rely on driving jobs to make a living. What kind of work will they do instead?

Many other occupations such as car mechanics, hospitality workers and insurance back-office staff could lose their jobs.

Expect the deployment of autonomous vehicles to disrupt existing patterns of employment. This is true for both driving occupations and ancillary trades.

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Impact on cities

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Driverless vehicles are expected to have a huge impact on the way future cities are

designed and operated.

Improved

traffic flows

More options

for personal

mobility

Less need

for on-street

parking

Better air

quality

Fewer road

accidents

More green

space (fewer

car parks)

URBAN

SPRAWL

FEWER PEOPLE

USE PUBLIC

TRANSPORT

POTENTIAL BENEFITS RISKS

GREATER

SOCIAL

EXCLUSION

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Political impact

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As with all disruptive change, there will be

winners and losers.

• It’s inevitable that there will be social

and political changes (both good and bad)

• We need to adopt a “systems thinking”

approach and consider the social impact of

these changes

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Final conclusions

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After a century of research, driverless cars are about to become reality.

The SAE model provides a way to discuss the evolutionary path towards driverless cars

ADAS technology is widely used today and provides an important stepping stone towards the goal of fully autonomous vehicles

The UK government seeks to make the UK a major centre for R&D for autonomous vehicles (expect fierce global competition)

Smooth adoption of driverless technology is by no means certain. There are many practical, legal and ethical issues which need to be addressed.

Driverless cars are part of a broader Transport Revolution which will transform the cities of the future.

The driverless future will bring many benefits but also the possibility of social and political upheaval due to loss of driving as a source of employment.

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Final audience poll

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Which of these three propositions do you most agree with?

1. I would prefer to be able to sit behind the wheel of a car and drive to my destination

2. I would prefer to relax in an autonomous car and let it drive me to my destination

3. I am undecided as to which option I prefer at this point in time

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Advanced System Technologies in Urban Spaces™

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