Introduction to Commodities - Morgan Stanley · Introduction to Commodities. This slide is part of...

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This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented. Introduction to Commodities

Transcript of Introduction to Commodities - Morgan Stanley · Introduction to Commodities. This slide is part of...

This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented.

Introduction to Commodities

This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented.

Introduction to Commodities

The information provided herein may include certain non-GAAP financial measures. The reconciliation of such measures to the comparable GAAP figures are included in the Company’s Annual Reports on Form 10-K, Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and Current Reports on 8-K, including any amendments thereto, which are available at www.morganstanley.com.

This presentation may contain forward-looking statements. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which they are made, which reflect management’s current estimates, projections, expectations or beliefs and which are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. For a discussion of risks and uncertainties that may affect the future results of the Company, please see “Forward-Looking Statements” immediately preceding Part I, Item 1, “Competition” and “Regulation” in Part I, Item 1, “Risk Factors” in Part I, Item 1A and “Certain Factors Affecting Results of Operations” in Part II, Item 7 of the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended November 30, 2005, “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in the Company’s Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q for the quarterly periods ended February 28, 2006 and May 31, 2006 and other items throughout the Form 10-K, Form 10-Qs and the Company’s 2006 Current Reports on Form 8-K.

This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented.

Table of ContentsIntroduction to Commodities

Section 1 Commodities Overview

Section 2 Proprietary Trading

Section 3 Client-Driven Flow

Section 4 Structured Transactions

Section 5 Private Equity

This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented.

Introduction to Commodities

Section 1

Commodities Overview

This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented.

Commodities Overview

Markets Introduction to Commodities

1

Oil Liquids

• Crude Oil• Refined Products• NGLs• Tanker Freight• Index Trading

Natural Gas/ Power

• Natural Gas• Electricity• Coal• Emissions• Dry Freight

Base Metals

• Copper• Aluminium• Nickel• Zinc• Lead

Precious Metals

• Gold• Silver• Platinum• Palladium• Rhodium

Energy Metals

Our Markets

This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented.

Commodities Overview

Geographical CoverageIntroduction to Commodities

2

London

Tokyo

Singapore

Westchester (NY) Atlanta

Calgary

Shanghai

• Westchester (NY)

o North America

o South America

• London

o Europe

o Africa

o Middle East

• Singapore

o Non-Japan Asia

o India

o South Pacific

• Satellite Offices

o Tokyo

o Calgary

o Atlanta

o Shanghai

This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented.

Commodities Overview

Job FunctionsIntroduction to Commodities

3

• Client Coverage

• Trading

• Structuring

• Research/Analysis

• Traffic/Scheduling

This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented.

Commodities Overview

Business MixIntroduction to Commodities

4

Client-Driven Flow

Structured Transactions

Proprietary Trading

Physical Supply & Distribution

Private Equity

This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented.

Introduction to Commodities

Section 2

Proprietary Trading

This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented.

Proprietary Trading

Proprietary TradingIntroduction to Commodities

5

• Outright vs. Relative Value

• Trading Matrix

• Quality – WTI, Brent, Dubai, Gasoline and Jet Fuel

• Location – US Gulf, NY Harbor, Med, Singapore

• Time – September, December, 2007, 2010

• Volatility – ATM, Out-of-the Money, December, 2010

This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented.

Proprietary Trading

US Heating Oil – Gulf Coast and NYMEXIntroduction to Commodities

6

Pasadena, TXGulf Coast Heating Oil

New York HarborHeating Oil

Colonial Pipeline

This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented.

Proprietary Trading

US Heating Oil – Gulf Coast and NYMEXIntroduction to Commodities

7

US Heating Oil – US Gulf Coast and NYMEX Prompt Month - 01/01/1997 to 12/31/2000c/gal

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Jan-97 May-97 Sep-97 Jan-98 May-98 Sep-98 Jan-99 May-99 Sep-99 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00

US Gulf Coast NYMEX

This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented.

Proprietary Trading

US Heating Oil – Gulf Coast and NYMEXIntroduction to Commodities

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Heating Oil Differential: NYMEX – US Gulf Coast: 01/01/1997 to 12/31/1999c/gal

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This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented.

Proprietary Trading

US Heating Oil – Gulf Coast and NYMEXIntroduction to Commodities

9

Heating Oil Differential: NYMEX – US Gulf Coast: 01/01/1997 to 12/31/2000c/gal

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Jan-97 May-97 Sep-97 Jan-98 May-98 Sep-98 Jan-99 May-99 Sep-99 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00

This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented.

Proprietary Trading

US Heating Oil – Gulf Coast and NYMEXIntroduction to Commodities

10

Heating Oil Differential: NYMEX – US Gulf Coast: 01/01/1997 to 06/06/06c/gal

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-00

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-06

This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented.

Proprietary Trading

Differentials: NYMEX Gasoline less Heating OilAugust Contracts

Introduction to Commodities

11

Differentials: NYMEX Unleaded – Heating Oil (August Contracts)c/gal

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01/03 01/24 02/14 03/07 03/28 04/18 05/09 05/30 06/20 07/11

2003 2004 2005

This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented.

Proprietary Trading

Differentials: NYMEX Gasoline less Heating OilAugust Contracts

Introduction to Commodities

12

Differentials: NYMEX Unleaded – Heating Oil (August Contracts)c/gal

(15)

(10)

(5)

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01/03 01/24 02/14 03/07 03/28 04/18 05/09 05/30 06/20 07/11

2003 2004 2005 2006

This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented.

Proprietary Trading

Commodities are VolatileUS Markets: 1 Year Historical Price Volatility (As of 05/26/2006)

Introduction to Commodities

13

Market Instrument Historical Volatility

Natural Gas NYMEX Crude 1st Month 56.78%

Gasoline NYMEX RFG 1st Month 52.31%

Oil NYMEX Natural Gas 1st Month 31.24%

Bonds 10 Yr Treasury 16.07%

Equities S&P 500 9.69%

FX USD/EUR 9.15%

This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented.

Introduction to Commodities

Section 3

Client-Driven Flow

This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented.

Client-Driven Flow

Clients and ProductsIntroduction to Commodities

14

• Oil/Gas Producers• Refiners• Airlines• Petrochemicals• Railroads• Utilities

Corporates Government Entities Institutional Investors

• National Oil Companies• Municipalities• Tax Authorities

• Hedge Funds/CTAs• Passive Commodity Index

Trading by: • Endowments• Insurance Cos.• Pension Funds

Clients

Products

• Swaps• Options• Indexes• Physical Supply/Offtake

This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented.

Introduction to Commodities

Section 4

Structured Transactions

This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented.

Structured Transactions

MotivationsIntroduction to Commodities

15

Capital Driven

Optimization Outsourcing

Credit Driven

This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented.

Structured Transactions

Representative Structured TransactionsIntroduction to Commodities

16

Transaction Client

Monetizing Reserves

Monetizing Receivables

Monetizing In-the-Money Contracts

Contract Restructuring

Monetizing Working Capital

Supply Outsourcing

Credit Syndication

Structured Financing

One-Stop-Shopping La Paloma

This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented.

Introduction to Commodities

Section 5

Private Equity

This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented.

Private Equity

Private EquityIntroduction to Commodities

17

Production• Helios Fund – Operated Producing Properties• Gold Royalty Trust – Australian gold reserves• Exploration & Production – Non-operated undeveloped propertiesConversion• Oil Refineries • Gas Processing – gas liquids plants• Generation – 3 U.S. power plants, 1 European power plantInfrastructure• Transmontaigne – Terminaling and Distribution• Heidmar Shipping – Tanker pool, trans-shipment• Gas gathering and pipelineE-Commerce• Electronic Trading - ICE