INTRODUCING THE CAMKOX ARC

The Cambridge-Milton Keynes-Oxford (CaMkOx) Knowledge Arc is of vital economic importance in the UK; home to leading international universities and science and technology companies. This disaggregated ‘cluster’ of high growth industries across the Arc has the potential to expand and evolve to deliver a far greater contribution to the wealth of the region and the country as a whole.

Reflecting its significance, a strategic vision for the CaMkOx Knowledge Arc was delivered by the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC) and received Government support in the November 2017 Budget.

Transport infrastructure is central to the vision. The plans include a new east-west rail line connecting Oxford and Cambridge (‘The Varsity Rail Line’) by 2030 and the accelerated development of the Oxford to Cambridge Expressway Road.

Housing forms the other key plank of the strategy. The goal is to deliver one million new homes in the Arc by 2050, through settlement expansion and the development of up to five new towns or villages.

The delivery of transport infrastructure and housing is symbiotic: neither component of the strategy on their own will allow the Arc to achieve its economic potential. Our analysis demonstrates that the delivery of transport without the housing delivers a relatively limited expansion in skilled labour for many key businesses in the Arc.

Fulfilling this potential is not only key for the future prospects of the region, it is fundamental to the long term economic health of the UK as a whole. The NIC have therefore set out challenging targets for delivery and progress evaluation.

This paper is the first in a programme of research on the plans, progress and opportunities presented by the CaMkOx Arc, drawing on Bidwells’ unique experience in the region.

Executive summary

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In 2017 the Cambridge – Milton Keynes – Oxford (CaMkOx) Knowledge Arc formally came into being.

Following a strategic review, the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC) set out its recommendations to the Government in November 2017, Partnering for Prosperity: A new deal for the Cambridge-Milton Keynes-Oxford Arc, which were accepted by the Chancellor of the Exchequer in the Budget in the same month.

The CaMkOx Arc has been highlighted as offering a unique growth opportunity for UK wide benefit. The NIC note the area presents “a single, knowledge-intensive cluster that competes on a global stage”. The NIC sets out the vision for the Arc; to be the focus for accelerated economic development if treated as a holistic entity.

The cornerstone of securing the growth potential of the region is the delivery of significant infrastructure improvements in the form of two key transport developments: the Varsity Rail Line and the Expressway Road. The second essential strand of the Arc is the delivery of one million new homes by 2050. This combined strategy is essential to attract and retain internationally mobile talent and businesses in high growth industries.

The NIC recommendations, accepted in the November 2017 Budget include:• Funding to accelerate delivery of The

Varsity Rail Line, an east west rail line, helping to open the connection between Oxford and Bedford, and from Aylesbury to Milton Keynes by 2024;

• The formation of a new company to explore how to speed up progress with the east west rail connection between Bedford and Cambridge, with the aim of opening the link in the mid-2020s;

• A programme of work to develop plans for a new Cambridge South train station;

• A commitment to deliver The Expressway Road by 2030, with key elements funded through the next round of the Roads Investment Strategy

• The establishment of Cambridge as one of eight new Tech Nation hubs, as part of an expansion of the existing scheme; and

• Funding support for Oxfordshire to deliver 100,000 new homes in the county by 2031. This has been reaffirmed by the Housing secretary in his announcement of plans for up to five new garden towns or villages across the Arc delivering one million new homes by 2050.

The plan

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2024Oxford to Bedford sections fully open

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Varsity Line TimelineLate 2018 – Preferred route con�rmedCirca 2021 – Preferred alignment con�rmed2031 – New train services running

© Bidwells 2018Key connecting towns

THE PROPOSED VARSITY RAIL LINE

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Both the Varsity Rail Line and The Expressway Road represent major infrastructure projects which will entail complex planning and construction programmes.

At a macro level, The Varsity Rail Line is being planned in three sections: Eastern, Central and Western.The Western and Central sections, include the already completed Oxford to Bicester route. The delivery of the line from Bicester to Bedford is expected by 2023, and from Bedford to Cambridge by 2030. With proposals to extend the Eastern section from Cambridge to Norfolk and Suffolk.

The precise route of the new line from Bedford to Cambridge is yet to be agreed, as are the location and number of new stations along the line. The options under consideration are illustrated below. In the near term, there are proposals to expand rail services to Cowley in South East Oxford by 2019 to support new housing and accelerating The Varsity Rail Line programme to open a new station at South Cambridge by 2022, alongside the long-term local transport plans across the Arc.

The Expressway Road, a link between the M1 and Oxford, is currently at the planning and consultation stage. Three different routes under assessment with each option comprising a combination of upgrades to existing roads, including a link between the Black Cat roundabout and the A4421 and new construction. To be realised in sections and phases, full completion is currently scheduled for 2030.

The NIC also note that the success of the overall strategy, will also require improved connectivity north-south as well as east-west. It therefore recommends the Government should seek to introduce fast, direct services, to London to enable growth in the Arc between Bicester and Bletchley and improve connectivity between London and Aylesbury. The introduction of services of less than an hour into the capital are considered crucial.

The NIC’s proposals include not only the expansion of existing settlements, but also new settlements of between 10,000-150,000 new homes, potentially

with city standing. The NIC recommends the Government takes a lead on new settlements through a single delivery masterplan. This takes the political pressure away from local authorities and, in theory, provides a strategic approach to the Arc overall.

The fundamental components – transport and housing

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Expressway TimelineSummer 2018 – Final strategic business case Autumn 2020 – Preferred route announcedAutumn 2030 – Expressway fully operational

Core route options

© Bidwells 2018

Route ARoute BRoute CBlack Cat to Caxton Gibbet route options

Route optionsImprove Black Cat Roundabout and ongoing connections with A1 and A421

THE PROPOSED EXPRESSWAY ROAD

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The Government’s support for CaMkOx Arc is not surprising. The Cambridge, Milton Keynes and Oxford Arc is one of the most economically significant parts of the country, contributing just over £90 billion a year to the UK economy. An estimate provided by Cambridge Econometrics for the NIC suggests this has the potential to be increased to £250 billion with investment in homes and infrastructure.

As such the Arc will play a pivotal role in the country’s future economy. The national Industrial Strategy White Paper published in autumn 2017, reaffirmed in the November

2017 Budget, notes the importance of the life sciences and technology sectors in the country’s future fortunes. The key towns across the Arc are top five ranked for most indicators of high growth potential.

The economic impact of the area can be magnified further by achieving scale, whether through development in each location across the Arc, but importantly also through the enhancement of networks between universities, businesses and investors in technology and research orientated industries. Such networks are facilitated and enhanced by improved

transport links which provide the highly-skilled, high GVA clusters of Oxford, Cambridge and Milton Keynes with critical mass. The economic impact of such agglomeration of high value activity has significance for the UK as a whole. It also has the potential to establish the CaMkOx Knowledge Arc as a leader on the international stage.

At present, however, the potential of the area is not being reached due to current constraints of infrastructure and the damage this imparts to productivity and innovation between businesses

An Arc of international significance

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CaMkOx Arc road and rail options

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Delivery challenge – holding the government to accountIt is in the national interest that long-term potential is fulfilled. For this reason, the NIC is placing considerable emphasis on achieving progress quickly. The Commission called for a ‘new deal’ on infrastructure and housing between local authorities in the Arc and central Government.

This is encompassed in a series of recommendations to achieve this long-term vision, including:

• Giving councils new powers to provide greater certainty over future investments, and allowing them to raise finance;

• A jointly agreed plan for new and expanded housing settlements, supported by New Town Development Corporations and new infrastructure design panels; and

• The development of new statutory spatial plans and investment strategies for each sub-region, as part of a 50-year vision for the Arc as a whole

Finally, the NIC sets down a marker to the Government to maintain momentum in the final recommendation of the report:

“Recommendation 9: Government should work with local authorities and any new delivery bodies from across the Arc to prepare and publish a six-monthly update, with the first published in April 2018, enabling the Commission to assess the progress achieved in delivering the recommendations set out in this report.”

The due date for this first progress report looms. Announcements by the Minister for Housing on the delivery of new towns and villages in the Arc is a start. However, we hope the forthcoming update on achievements since the approval of the CaMkOx Arc will provide more tangible evidence on the work to date.

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CaMkOx Arc road and rail options

and institutions. Furthermore, the NIC report notes the need for “recognising the urgency of the Arc’s housing crisis and the constraints this is already placing on economic growth and competitiveness.”

Certainly, the shortage of homes presents challenges today for businesses to recruit staff who are facing increasingly unaffordable housing costs. However, our analysis finds that, in the absence of any new housing, the CaMkOx Arc transport infrastructure will only deliver an 8% increase in the 60 minute commute catchment area of Cambridge. For internationally orientated

businesses seeking to employ globally mobile talent, this presents a threat to future competitiveness. The delivery of housing and transport in tandem is therefore essential.

This is not just to address existing skills shortages, but to fulfil the future potential of the Arc. Analysis by National Endowment for Science, Technology and the Arts (Nesta), in its 2017 report The Future of Skills: Employment in 2030 points to a series of factors, such as technological changes, globalisation and demographic changes, that will affect employment,

reducing demand for some occupations and increasing it for others. Nesta notes cities such as Cambridge and Oxford have the lowest level of ‘at risk’ jobs in the country at 15%. Put another way, almost half of all jobs in Cambridge are expected to see an increase in demand due the domination of highly-skilled occupations, such as natural science professionals. The international potential is evident, but a holistic regional plan is needed to deliver on the vision.

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Bidwells Sue Foxley Research Director 01223 634 602 sue.foxley@bidwells.co.uk

Bidwells is a trading name of Bidwells LLP, a limited liability partnership, registered in England and Wales with number OC344553. Registered office: Bidwell House Trumpington Road Cambridge CB2 9LD. 0358