Intersolar rooftop PV
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Transcript of Intersolar rooftop PV
Off-grid Rooftop PV – An elegant alternative to the unreliable central
grid
November 6, 2012
Mumbai, India
Off-grid PV 2
Agenda
1. Overview
2. Rooftop PV – hope or hype?
3. Challenges
4. Takeaways
Off-grid PV 3
India – Staring Into Darkness
- Power deficit – more than 9%
- Capacity addition shortfall for 11th Plan Period – 26 GW
- Capacity addition required for -12th plan(2012-17)– 76 GW
- 13th plan (2018-2) – 93 GW
- One nation, on grid – not yet achieved
- Transmission and Distribution osses – 27 % +
- Majority of villages have no access to reliable and quality power
- Net loss of utilities – INR 88,170 Crores(~$17 Billion)
- Power cuts of 50%+
Generation Transmission Distribution
Sources: Planning Commission of India, KPMG
Off-grid PV 4
A window to the future..
Off-grid PV 5
Economic and environmental impact– Grim!!
July 30-31, 2012
The World’s Biggest Blackout happens in India
Affects 620 million people
7
World notices..
Off-grid PV
Off-grid PV 8
The solution ?
Distributed Power Generation
Off-grid PV 9
Why Rooftop PV?
• Reduced reliance on the grid
• Offsetting the usage of diesel generators, leading to lower pollution
• Max power generation at max load(for commercial segment)
• Consumption at the point of generation
• Significantly reduced transmission losses. – The Aggregated Technical and Commercial (ATC) losses in India are expected to be about 32%. – 1 kWh of power lost for every 3 kWh generated, which means 2 kWh of power from rooftop = 3
kWh of kWh from far-off thermal plant
• Operation and Maintenance – Easy and inexpensive
Off-grid PV 10
Off-grid or grid-tied PV?
Parameters Off-grid Grid-tied
Grid connection
Operates independent of the utility power grid
Connected to the utility power grid
Suitability Suitable when utility power is not easily accessible or cannot be installed
Used when selling power to utility or the system smaller than the minimum power load.
Storage required
Yes No
Cost Costlier– due to battery bank Less expensive
Installation Easy to commission Complex – restricted by the utility grid
Monitoring Important, but not critical Requires grid related monitoring, feedback and safety features
Off-grid PV 11
Why off-grid PV?
• No uncertainty about Feed-in-Tariff
• No off-taker risk(PPA risk) – losses of utilities at 88,170 Crores
• No need for net-metering
• System not dependent on the uptime of the grid
• Does not lead to destabilisation of the grid
• Ideal for non-electrified villages
Off-grid PV 12
Agenda
1. Overview
2. Rooftop PV – hope or hype?
3. Challenges
4. Takeaways
Off-grid PV 13
Rooftop PV market – Does it exist?
The Foundation - Demand Potential
Pillar 1
Policy/Regulatory support
Pillar 2
Financial Viability
Pillar 3
Technical Feasibility
Rooftop PV Market
Off-grid PV 14
The Foundation - Rooftop Potential
KPMG’s report – “The Rising Sun – 2012”
Estimate of potential – 4 GW by 2016-17Approach – Demand side economicsGrid parity - 2015-16Favourable trends for rooftop PV- Increase in power tariffs in many states- Transmission and Distribution losses of about 20%, which
can be avoided by rooftop PV- Target achievable subject to creation of enabling
environment by regulators and utilities
Off-grid PV 15
Grid parity for rooftop PV by 2015-16
Assumptionsa. Landed cost for consumer – 5.5 Rs/kWh in 2011-12b. Electricity price increase – 4%-5.5% per annumc. Solar price decline – 5%-7% per annum
Source : KPMG
Off-grid PV 16
An Alternate approach
Factors affecting installation- Affordability- Suitability of rooftop space
Residential Industrial Commercial Institutional Total0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
1.96.7 5.1
0.3
14.1
5.112.5 15.4
1.0
34.1
9.6
20.0
30.8
1.3
61.7
Estimate of potential in 2020
Conservative Scenario Realistic Scenario Optimistic Scenario
Rooftop PV Customer Segment
GW o
f pot
entia
l Ins
talla
tion
Potential for rooftop PV systems – Very high!!
Off-grid PV 17
Pillar 1 - Policy Support(MNRE)
• Capital subsidy : 30% and or Soft loans of 5 %• 90% in Certain states
• Accelerated depreciation• Channel partners for speedy disbursal of subsidies
Off-grid PV 18
Pillar 1 - Policy Support(State Level)
Off-grid
1. Kerala - 10,000 rooftop PV programme- 30% capital subsidy from MNRE- Rs.39,000 per system from Government
of Kerala
2. Tamil Nadu – 5 Lakh green houses
Grid Tied1. Gujarat - Gandinagar rooftop programme
2. Tamil Nadu- Generation based incentive for domestic roof owners
Off-grid PV 19
Pillar 2 - Financial Viability
• Accelerated depreciation benefit – Reduces system cost by another 23%
1 kW SystemWithout Battery(Rs. Lakhs) With Battery(Rs. Lakhs)
Capital Cost 1.25 1.7Capital Subsidy(30%) 0.378 0.51Capital cost after subsidy 0.882 1.19
Off-grid PV 20
Pillar 3 - Technology Feasibility
• PV system for rooftop – well proven
• Grid-interactivity – could be a problem, but not for off-grid projects
• Mounting of PV dependent on load bearing capacity of roof and structural stability
Off-grid PV 21
Rooftop PV market – Potential exists
Demand Potential
Policy/Regulatory
support
Financial Viability
Technical Feasibility
Market Attractiveness
Off-grid PV 22
Agenda
1. Overview
2. Rooftop PV – hope or hype?
3. Challenges
4. Takeaways
Off-grid PV 23
Challenges
• Financial – High upfront cost Rs. 1.5 Lakhs
• Regulatory/policy – delay in subsidy disbursal
• Infrastructural – Availability of roof-space without shadows(caused by trees and adjacent buildings), south facing roofs,
• Structural Constraints – load bearing capacity of roof, uneven roofs – special structures can lead to additional cost
Off-grid PV 24
Possible solutions
• Easier and low cost financing
• Leasing option– Pay as you go model or Build, Own, Operate and
Transfer(BOOT)
• Easier subsidy disbursal
• Use of standardised systems
Off-grid PV 25
Agenda
1. Overview
2. Rooftop PV – hope or hype?
3. Challenges
4. Takeaways
Off-grid PV 26
Summary
• Power crisis set to worsen
• Rooftop PV potential is huge
• Key to growth – Innovative business models
Rooftop PV growth – inevitable
Off-grid PV 28
Annexure
Off-grid PV 29
Indicative Cost breakup – Solar PV system
1 kW
1 Module ₹ 60,000
2 Inverters ₹ 25,000
3 Mounting Structure ₹ 10,000
4 Building and Civil works ₹ 10,000
5 Isolation Transformer ₹ 6,000
6 Wires and Electricals ₹ 1,000
7 Engineering & Project Management ₹ 3,000
8 Battery
Total ₹ 1,15,000
9 Contingency ₹ 0.10
Capital Cost ₹ 1,26,500.00
Capital subsidy - 30% ₹ 37,950.00
Landed cost after subsidy ₹ 88,550.00