Internet Political Surveys: History & State of Play in the UK Joe Twyman Special Projects Director...
-
date post
21-Dec-2015 -
Category
Documents
-
view
213 -
download
0
Transcript of Internet Political Surveys: History & State of Play in the UK Joe Twyman Special Projects Director...
Internet Political Surveys: History & State of Play in the UK
Joe TwymanSpecial Projects Director
YouGov
In the Beginning
Face-to-Face Research• The foundation on which market research was built• The ‘Rolls-Royce’ of the industry
Mistakes made over 1992 General Election • Conservatives poll 8% more of the vote than Labour
The Internet – a Brave New World
22nd April 1993
World Wide Web Multimedia Graphical User Interfaces
The Internet – a Brave New World
Internet penetration was growing• January 1997 10% penetration• January 2007 63% penetration
Relatively low level of investment required
Barriers to entry crumble
Source: Ipsos-MORI Technology Tracker
What Had Gone Wrong?
Difficulty in getting respondents to take part
Passive Sampling• Free for all• Quantity not quality
Active Sampling• Targeted approach• Restrictions on those allowed to take part
The UK Internet Population
More men than women• 53% to 47%
More young than old• 63% under 45
More ‘middle class’• 66% ABC1
Source: Ipsos-MORI Technology Tracker
The UK Internet Population
6% over the age of 65• Equivalent to over 1,500,000 people
15% are DEs• Equivalent to over 4,000,000 people
How do you find these people?
How do you convince them to take part?
Source: Ipsos-MORI Technology Tracker
Finding the Right People
Recruitment via internet marketing• Time consuming• Costly
Recruitment through traditional offline recruiters• Hugely expensive• Very inefficient• No guarantee of quality
Strategic partnerships important
Internet Political Surveys
June 2001 British General Election
September 2001 Conservative Leadership Election
May 2002 London Local Election
April 2003 Scottish Parliament Election
June 2004 European Election
May 2005 General Election
October 2005 Conservative Leadership Election
May 2007 Scottish Parliament Election
Internet Research
Internet research is big business• Accounts for 7.9% of total European market research
business• Estimated to have been worth £383,000,000 in 2006• Increasing from 6.4% and £297,000,000 in 2005• Average UK connection speeds rising from 1.6mbs at
December 2005 to 3.8mbs by December 2006
Misunderstanding, scepticism and even hostility still remain
Source: Inside Research (Feb 2007) / Ofcom
Scepticism Remains
‘We're using the internet as a way in which we can reduce the costs of data collection for our clients while also improving the quality of what we do for them and the quality of the delivery of data through the internet.’
David LowdenChief Executive Officer – TNS
5th March 2007
‘It is still way too early for public opinion polling to go online. Internet polling is like the Far West, with no rules, no sheriff and no reference points.’
Leendert de VoogdManaging Director - TNS Opinion
27th May 2007
Source: TNS Website / International Herald Tribune
Future Direction
Supply is boosted by removal of barriers to entry and low running costs
Cost savings passed to clients who boost demand
Data no longer a ‘fine malt whisky’
Things Can Still Go Wrong . . .
Downing Street E-Petitions Website
‘An own-goal thought up by a prat’
Things Can Still Go Wrong . . .
1,811,289 ‘respondents’
We the undersigned petition the Prime Minister to Scrap the planned vehicle tracking and road pricing policy.
We the undersigned petition the Prime Minister to Make Jeremy Clarkson Prime Minister.
We the undersigned petition the Prime Minister to replace the national anthem with ‘Gold’ by Spandau Ballet.
MySpace ‘will give America its first presidential primary winner’
More than 55,000,000 American users of voting age
Things Can Still Go Wrong . . .
As for the Long Term Future?
Move to consulting and panel providers as technology becomes commonplace
The internet everywhere including mobile phones