Internet Dagarna 2000 · PDF fileInternet Dagarna 2000 October 24th 2000 © 2000, ......

1© 2000, Cisco Systems, Inc.

Internet Dagarna2000

October 24th 2000

Internet Dagarna2000

October 24th 2000

2© 2000, Cisco Systems, Inc.

Dennis DavidssonDennis DavidssonDirector Market Development

Public Carrier IP GroupDirector Market Development

Public Carrier IP Group

2© 2000, Cisco Systems, Inc. www.cisco.com


How Many of You

Have Seen This Chart ?

How Many How Many of You of You

Have Seen Have Seen This This Chart ?Chart ?

What’s Driving the Demand ?What’s Driving the Demand ?


VoiceVoice

DataData

What’s Driving the Demand ?


What’s Driving the Demand ?InternetInternet


InternetInternetInternetInternetInternetInternetInternetInternet

0–5,000 Hosts241 Newsgroups

Government Government and Academiaand Academia

19691969––19871987

300,000 Hosts1,000 Newsgroups

300,000 Hosts1,000 Newsgroups

CommercializationCommercialization19871987––19911991

36,700,000 Hosts71,618 Newsgroups

300,000,000 Web Sites

36,700,000 Hosts71,618 Newsgroups

300,000,000 Web Sites

Mosaic/WWWMosaic/WWW19911991––19991999

A Few Facts and Figures


How Many Emails Did

You Receive 10 Years

Ago ?

How Many How Many Emails Did Emails Did

You Receive You Receive 10 Years 10 Years

Ago ?Ago ?

A Little Closer to Home ...


5050––200200

11––2020

10 Years Ago10 Years Ago 00--22

Received Received per Dayper Day

5 Years Ago5 Years Ago

TodayToday

Increasing Volume ...


11––2020

5050––200200

00--2210 Years Ago10 Years Ago


5 Years Ago5 Years Ago

TodayToday

0-20-2

1–201–20

50–20050–200

1 KB1 KB

Average Average SizeSize

1–5 KB1–5 KB

10 KB–20 MB10 KB–20 MB

Increasing Payloads ...


10 Years Ago10 Years Ago 0-20-2


5 Years Ago5 Years Ago 1–201–20

TodayToday 50–20050–200

1 KB1 KB

Average Average SizeSize

1–5 KB1–5 KB

100 KB–2 MB100 KB–2 MB

0-2 KB0-2 KB

TotalsTotals

1–100 KB1–100 KB

5–400 MB5–400 MB

Increasing Challenge !


•IBM stops selling PCs in retail outlets

•33% of medical conditions are researched on web

•eBay accounts for 10% of US Postal Service’ small package volume!

•Fed Ex would need 20,000 customer service employees to replace its “online services” (InformationWeek 10/99)

•10 Million people are using Dialpad to make free, long-distance calls in USA

Surprising StatisticsSurprising Statistics


Bandwidth / Line RatesBandwidth / Line Rates

• Kbit/s 1 000 bits/s• Mbit/s 1 000 000 bits/s• Gbit/s 1 000 000 000 bits/s• Tbit/s 1 000 000 000 000 bits/s• 1 Tbit/s = 13 000 000 56K users


6.66.89.07.47.73.57.0

30.0

21.8

0102030405060708090

100

1996 1999 2001

Level 3FrontierQwestGTE (Qwest fiber)IXCWilliamsSprintMCI WorldComAT&T

U.S. Network CapacityU.S. Network Capacity

Total Total Bandwidth:Bandwidth:99.8terabits/second

21.7terabits/second

1.2terabits/second

Carrying capacity explodes by more than 8,000%Carrying capacity explodes by more than 8,000%

Fortune Magazine

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03Jan-00

Tier 1

ISP

Mbp

s

2 x OC48c

80 x OC192c

16 x OC48c

16 x OC192c

Internet Growth Drives The Timing of IP Trunk CapacityInternet Growth Drives The Timing of IP Trunk Capacity


1996Year

Line and Network Speeds (Gbit/s)Bandwidth Cost ($/Mbit/s)

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1996 1997 1998 2000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0.1

1

10

100

1000

Year

155M

622M

2,5G10G

TDM

Routers/Switches

Optical (WDM)

Innovation Is Driving Cost of Networking Down

Innovation Is Driving Cost of Networking Down

Source: Ryan, Hankin and Kent and Internal Data

0


Market Trends

• Fiber everywhere• Decreasing costs

of bandwidth• Optical

infrastructure• New services


SP Market ConditionsSP Market Conditions

• Service provider market is highly competitive and dynamic

• Service differentiation and cost of delivering the services key to survival and growth

• Requirements for highly scalable, cost-effective, flexible network


SP Competition in EuropeSP Competition in Europe

1990Fixed Networks < 70Mobile/Wireless < 30ISPs 0IP Telephony 0Global Networks < 10Total < 110

2000> 1,200> 150> 2,500> 50> 20> 4,000


Source: Electronicast, Internal Analysis

What runs over the Internet?What runs over the Internet?

File Transfer4%

WWW75%

WWW75%

Other15%

Other15%

UDP4%

Mail2%


19961996

Other35%

IPIP20%20%

SNASNA45%45%

% o

f WA

N T

raffi

c

200120012001

Other 10%

IPIP80%80%

SNA 10%SNA 10%

Source: Gartner GroupSource: Gartner Group

And, the winner is….


DS0

OC3/12

DS3DS3DS3

DS1

DS0DS0

DS1

DS1

DS0

OC48 OC48

3/1 DACS

SONETADM

DS3 DS3DS3

DS1

DS0DS0

DS1

DS1

OC48

Class 5Switch

Class 4Switch

Class 4Switch

Class 5Switch

3/1 DACS

SONETADM

OC3/12

CustomerPremise

CustomerPremise

LocalCO

Interexchange LocalCO

InfrastructureInfrastructure

• Rigid structure yields high cost per bit• Lower-margin services disfavor new investment


CustomerPremise

CustomerPremise

LocalCO

Interexchange LocalCO

OC-48cOC-48c

Ethernet WDM

OC-48c

EthernetDS1 DS1

OC-48c

~~~~~~ ~~~~~~

Optical InternetworkingOptical Internetworking

• Optimized infrastructure for data services• Statistical muxing over largest available pipe • “Flattened” network gives a 10x cost reduction


• Lower equipment cost• Lower operational cost• Simplified architecture• Scalable network

capacity

Traditional Model

Optical Internetworking

OpticalOptical

IP RouterIP Router

OpticalOptical

SONET/SDH

Big Optical Pipe

IP Services

ATM/FR

ATM/FR

IPIP

Optical InternetworkingOptical Internetworking


Internet Backbone EvolutionInternet Backbone Evolution

.

ATM

Early 1990s 1994-95 1996-97 1998-99 2000-01Early 1990s 1994Early 1990s 1994--95 199695 1996--9797 19981998--9999 20002000--0101

IPIP

PPP/HDLCPPP/HDLC

SONET/SDHSONET/SDH

FiberFiber

IPIP

ATM/FRATM/FR

SONET/SDHSONET/SDH

FiberFiber

IPIP

POSPOS

SONET/SDHSONET/SDH

FiberFiber

IPIP

POS MPLSPOS MPLS

FiberFiberDWDMDWDM

IPIP

POS DPT MPLSPOS DPT MPLS

FiberFiberDWDMDWDMOXCOXC

POS622Mbps

DWDM2.5Gbps POS

• Internet backbones have evolved to keep up with the explosive growth and leveraged new technologies

• Growth has been driven through increased number of users and access speeds

PPP Point to Point ProtocolPOS Packet Over SONET/SDHDWDM Dense Wave Division MultiplexingDPT Dynamic Packet TransportMPLS Multi-Protocol Label SwitchingOXC Optical Cross Connects

DWDM ChannelsDWDM terminals


POP EvolutionPOP Evolution

.

Late 1980s Early 1990s Mid 1990s 1998-99 2000-01 2001-02Late 1980s Early 1990s Mid 1990s 199Late 1980s Early 1990s Mid 1990s 19988--99 99 20002000--0101 20012001--0202

• POP architecture has evolved over the past few years to keep up with the explosive growth

• Number of access ports, speed of access and operational simplicity driving new designs

• POP consolidation of backbone, optical aggregation and content aggregation applications

SharedFDDI Ring

FDDISwitchXX XX

POS

EthernetATM

POSPOS

POS

GSRGSRGSRGSR

Cisco 75XX

Cisco 75XX

Cisco 75XX

Cisco 75XX

Cisco 75XX

Cisco 75XX

Cisco 75XX

Cisco 75XX

Cisco 75XX

Cisco 75XXDPT


BroadbandDSL, Cable, and Wireless

BroadbandDSL, Cable, and Wireless

DSL Cable Wireless

HubFiber Node

EnterpriseCampus

P2MPP2P

KTS

PBX

Remote Office, Branch Office

IP/TV TIBCO

POTS/PSTN

V

Resi-dential

PSTN

Internet

Node

Node SS7

25K HP

Dial

250KHP VV

VV

Resi-dential

Remote Office, Branch Office

PSTN

Internet


BroadbandCommon Network Design

BroadbandCommon Network Design

IPCORE

FEATURECORE

CABLE

ENDUSER

ENDUSERXDSL

LEASEDLINE

WIRELESS

EACH TECHNOLOGYNEEDS SPECIAL

DESIGN

TO EDGE


BroadbandFuture Network Design

BroadbandFuture Network Design

IPCOREEND

USEREND

USER

INTELLIGENTNETWORK

DEVICE

REPLACEEVERY

5TH YEAR

•Lower equipment cost•Lower operational cost•Simplified architecture•Scalable network capacity


Point-to-Point POS OverSONET/SDH DWDM or Dark Fiber UsingCisco GSR 12000

DPT RingsDark Fiber

Using Cisco GSR 12000 and

Cisco 7500

DPT RingsDark Fiber

Using Cisco GSR 12000 and

Cisco 7500

Optical IP NetworksCommon ArchitectureOptical IP Networks

Common Architecture

TDMTDM

TDMTDM

TDMTDM

TDMTDM

MetroMetroAccessAccess

MetroMetroAggregationAggregation BackboneBackbone MetroMetro

AggregationAggregationMetroMetro

AccessAccess


Basic Elements of the Metro Architecture

Basic Elements of the Metro Architecture

IP

Fiber Ethernet


A hole in the wallA hole in the wall

IP


Dennis DavidssonDirector Market Development

Public Carrier IP Group

e-mail: [email protected]: (408) 526-7860fax: (408) 527-2324

Thank You!Thank You!

Internet Dagarna 2000 · PDF fileInternet Dagarna 2000 October 24th 2000 © 2000, ......

Documents

Transcript of Internet Dagarna 2000 · PDF fileInternet Dagarna 2000 October 24th 2000 © 2000, ......