International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data
description
Transcript of International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data
![Page 1: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
International Workshop on
Subnational Population Projectionsusing Census Data
17 – 18 January 2013Beijing, China
![Page 2: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Session 4:Preparing subnational projections using a
bottom-up approach
• National projections with subnational components: an integrated approach
• Stand-alone subnational projections using the cohort-component method
![Page 3: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
National projections with subnational components: an integrated approach
Overview
![Page 4: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
National projections with subnational components
• A national projection with subnational components is usually performed by a central authority of the country, often in collaboration with regional or subnational institutions. One approach could be the simultaneous preparation of all subnational projections using the standard cohort-component method and software. In a second step, the national projection is then obtained by aggregating all subnational projections. For the latter, the projection software needs to have special functionality.
![Page 5: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Using Spectrum to generate subnational projections I
• Spectrum offers a special functionality to aggregate several projections into one for a larger area (country)
• Spectrum does not (yet) provide consistency mechanisms that guarantee that individual projections are consistent with and add up to the national total.
![Page 6: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Using Spectrum to generate subnational projections II
• Steps involved are:• Prepare independently projections for each
subnational entity (region, province) and save it. Include AIDS required.
• In order to aggregate the individual subnational projections, create a list of member regions and save it.
• Process the list.• Obtain the summary indicators.
![Page 7: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Using Spectrum to generate subnational projections III
![Page 8: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Using Spectrum to generate subnational projections IV
![Page 9: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Using Spectrum to generate subnational projections V
![Page 10: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Using Spectrum to generate subnational projections VI
![Page 11: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Using Spectrum to generate subnational projections VII
![Page 12: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Using Spectrum to generate subnational projections VIII
![Page 13: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
![Page 14: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Using Spectrum to generate subnational projections IX
![Page 15: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Using Spectrum to generate subnational projections X
![Page 16: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Using Spectrum to generate subnational projections XI
• Spectrum can be used for explorative subnational projections that can be compared and aggregated.
• Spectrum lacks some features that are required for a fully specified and consistent subnational projection program, such as an ability to enforce consistency with a given national projection and complete output by age )some indicators.
• The necessity to specify HIV/AIDS adds complexity.
![Page 17: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
National projections with subnational components: Multistate approach
• Another, more comprehensive and elegant, approach is to employ a multi-state or multi-regional projection framework. Here the subnational populations and their demographic characteristics enter the model together.
![Page 18: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
National projections with subnational components: Multistate approach
• The model has special – and demanding – requirements regarding (internal) migration. For each subnational area, migration needs to be fully specified in terms of immigration by sending subnational area and for emigration by destination area. Altogether, this forms a gross migration matrix with as many rows and columns as there are subnational regions. If international migration needs to be included, an additional virtual region could be added representing the outside world.
![Page 19: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Stand-alone subnational projections using the cohort-component method
Overview
![Page 20: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Stand-alone subnational projections
• There is a need for standalone population projections that benefit for the advantages of the cohort-component methodology but avoid the heavy administrative and organizational overhead of coordinated national population projections with subnational components.
• Such need arises from emerging and ad-hoc policy and planning requirements that need population projection data as its basis.
![Page 21: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Stand-alone subnational projections
• Standalone population projections can be prepared like a national population projection, using the same software.
• Migration needs to be dealt with in a more comprehensive way, by combining internal migration and international migration.
![Page 22: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Stand-alone subnational projections: Migration
• It is useful to prepare internal and international migration separately, but to combine both into net migration. As for national projections, it is advisable to formulate migration assumption in term of absolute numbers.
![Page 23: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Other software
• RUPEX US Census Bureau Rural-Urban Projection Program with EXCEL interface
• United Nations MORTPAK projection program PROJCT
• LIPRO multi-state projection program (LIfestyle PROjections)
![Page 24: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
USCB RUPEX
DescriptionThe program uses the cohort component method for projecting the population by age and sex. The projection is made following cohorts by single years of age, even if all or some of the input data are in five year age groups. Using interpolated values of central death rates from life tables, RUP estimates the number of deaths and subtracts them from each cohort. It also takes into account internal and international migration. Every year births are estimated using fertility rates and the female population in reproductive ages. The annual number of births constitute new population cohorts that are followed through in the future.
![Page 25: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
– Advantages: • Reliable and well tested methodology• Large user base• Professional support• On-site Training available• Integration with analysis tools
– Disadvantages• User interface somewhat non-intuitive (Excel based)• Data format of input file text based and not self
explanatory• Still in testing for Windows Vista/Win7
USCB RUPEX
![Page 26: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
United NationsMORTPAK Population Projection
![Page 27: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
LIPRO
• Multistate projection program developed by NIDI, Netherlands
• Although originally developed for household projections, the LIPRO computer program can be used for a wide range of calculations in multistate demography. LIPRO has been extensively used for various applications, in the Netherlands as well as in many other countries.
![Page 28: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
LIPRO
• Consistency algorithms exist and can be expanded.
• Powerful, but demanding.• No further development• Runs only under Windows XP
![Page 29: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
LIPRO
![Page 30: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
LIPRO
• Projection data must be prepared outside: age-specific rates of change for each region/unit. Their evolution over time can be controlled through a scenario module. Alternatively, the number of events by age and sex can be inputted; LIPRO will then calculate the rates/probabilities.Challenge: Age-specific migration rate matrix: Origin and destination, by age.
![Page 31: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
LIPRO
• Belgium - LIPRO household typology• China - population projections Shanghai• Marital status projections for England & Wales.• Spain - population projections Catalonia• Paper on: Internal migration scenarios and
regional population projections for the European Union. International Journal of Population Geography
• http://www.nidi.knaw.nl/Pages/NID/24/841.bGFuZz1VSw.html
![Page 32: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
PADIS-INT
![Page 33: International Workshop on Subnational Population Projections using Census Data](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062521/56816935550346895de0917e/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
PADIS-INTNew features and advantages1. Web-accessibility 2. Less environmental dependence: PADIS-INT does not rely on any operating
system (Windows, Unix, and Linux) and can be accessed by any browser3. Use of the latest technology, which enrich users’ interactive experience and
improve the robustness, efficiency, safety, and reliability of the system and its distributed deployment.
4. Simple data input and flexibility: Users only need to provide very basic data such as the age-sex distribution of the population in the starting year and other demographic variables in the future such as total fertility rate, age-pattern of fertility, life expectancy at birth by sex, net migration rate by sex, and age pattern of migration by sex.
5. Rich in graphics and outputs