International Migration Scenarios - OECD - PGD Expert Meeting
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Transcript of International Migration Scenarios - OECD - PGD Expert Meeting
MIGRATION SCENARIOSParis, 25 February 2015
It is NOT a luxury to think about the
future
The future is a playing field of power
It is a responsibility of leadership to be more reflective on the stories they are push
Foresight is way to create a shared sense of future and refresh our understanding of the present
Foresight in policy is essential to getting ahead of global emerging issues, addressing connected challenges and enabling global
collaboration
1979: OECD Global Futures
Three global scenarios - four critical issues (guiding principles and recommendations on each):1. The energy transition: diversify mix and reduce
dependency on oil
2. Help developed countries to adapt to new context and anticipate new values, new social demands, adapt to structure changes
3. Common efforts for the development of the Third World
4. New forms of international collaboration
IMPACT: institutional innovation (IEA, DAC) and more, better collaborationMETHODOLOGY: Scenarios as reframing devices NOT forecasting tools
1990: International Futures ProgrammeLooking beyond ‘business-as-usual’ projections
Examples:
– Ocean economy (ongoing)– Families to 2030 (2012)– Global Shock: risk governance (2011)– Bio-economy (2009)– Space 2030 (2005)– Security economy (2004)– Emerging risks (2003)– Future of Money (2002)
Impacts:
– Resetting research and/or policy agenda
– Forging shared understanding –silos/sectors
– Identifying emerging policy issues
– Addressing “orphan issues” what fall between the cracks
– Testing existing and developing new policy options
Long Term OutlooksConditional projection of evidence base – baseline “scenarios”
The OECD …
• … a forward looking organisation that supports it members in developing better policies for better lives.
• An upgrade of its core capabilities in strategic foresight was mandated by MCM 2013
– keeping abreast of the continuous evolution in leading edge foresight philosophies and methods whilst
– maintaining a pragmatic approach and developing practical tools suited for a new era of public policy making under unpredictable uncertainty.
OECD Development Centre
Future of livelihoods
Development of two scenarios
Automation proceeds
faster than expected
and affects ageing
societies in particular
Automated
North
Droughts
and
joblessness
in the
South
Droughts become widespread
and challenge the resilience of
livelihoods, particularly in the
regions with a large share of
young people
Foresight is not the same as
forecasting… We need both!
‘facts’
‘The Present’ ‘The Path’ ‘The Future’
Forecasting(projecting the past)
current realities(mental maps)
multiple paths alternativefuture images
Scenarios(reframing the present)
Mental models
Worldviews
Assumptions
Scenarios: Angela Wilkinson
Foresight is not the same as
forecasting… We need both!
Scenarios: Angela Wilkinson
Scenarios are structured, well thought-out stories describing a small set of possible and different futures
& how they might come about
Predictions
Projections
Preferences
Implicit expectations
Consequential
Challenging
Plausible
Disciplined anticipation
Always focussed – users and uses
A fast futures exercise
Based on the trends discussed and identified in the last 1,5 days
• Identification of critical uncertainties and drivers of change
• Imagination of stories of the future, different from projections on migration
• Discussion of policy implication for migration and development policies in the different scenarios
Backup
Working with different time “framings”,
not just a long term horizon
Even if you could know the future…
Foresight helps open-mindedness…
“we perceive something as
meaningful if it fits meaningfully
with a memory we have made of
an anticipated future”
David Ingvar
(neurobiologist)
Toolkit of modern futures methods
Method Future(s) Temporal stance Futures
thinking
Attitude
(normative
stance)
Intervention
Approach
Epistemology of uncertainty Output
Forecasting Single Linear:
Past-to-future
Closed Descriptive:
knowing/seein
g the future
Outside-in
and adaptive
Mathematical treatment of
uncertainty
Probable future
Visioning Single Backcasting :
future-back-to-
present
Closed Normative:
responsibility
for the future
Inside-out and
activist
Choices and values as basis
for coping with uncertainty
Preferable future
Scenarios Multiple Entangled:
multiple
temporalities
Open Descriptive/
critical:
creating
options for the
future
Outside-in
and can be
either activist
or adaptive
Cognitive biases, culture and
social processes introduce
additional uncertainties
including ambiguity and
ignorance
(set of) Plausible
futures
Diverse methods compared
John W. Selsky, Angela Wilkinson, Diana Mangalagiu (2012): Chapter 13: Using futures methods in cross sector partnership projects: engaging wicked problems responsibly, in Social Partnerships and Responsible Business: A Research Handbook, Routledge.
What are scenarios?
17
XPredictions
Projections
Preferences
Relevant + Consequential
Credible + Challenging
Coherent + Plausible
…stories describing the alternative future contexts of something developed for someone for some purpose
Inductive
Scenario 1
Scenario 2Scenario 3
Official
future
Alternative
scenario
Incremental Normative
Vision
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Deductive
Many scenarios “building” methods
Stories
Scenarios
Qu
alit
ative
Qu
antita
tive
Info
rma
tio
n
Possibility Plausibility Predictability
Evaluation regime
Hard SystemsModelling
Different approaches