THE MACRO (ECONOMIC) DETERMINANTS OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION: A SURVEY by Michael J. Greenwood
International Migration and Economic Development
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Transcript of International Migration and Economic Development
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International Migration and Economic Development
Robert E.B. LucasBoston University
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Adult Migrants In EU-15 By region of origin (2000)
Data Source: OECD Database on Expatriates and Immigrants, 2004
W Europe
E EuropeFormer Soviet
N & C AmericaS AmericaS Asia
E Asia
Middle E
N Africa
SS Africa
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Given widening income and demographic gaps
migration pressures will continue to grow
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Medium Population Growth ProjectionsAnnual Growth 2005-2050: Ages 15-29
<-1%<0%
<1%<2%
>2%
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Pressures to emigrate often reflect
– failure to create jobs– failure to maintain security
Emigration option is a critical safety valve
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Average Unemployment RatesSelect Countries of Origin: 1990-2004 (approx).
RomaniaTurkey
MoroccoAlgeria
TunisiaSuriname
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
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Refugees Originating Per Thousand Population (2003)
<0.1
<1<10
>10
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Despite growing economic gaps,migration has grown less quickly
than trade and financial flows
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1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
1
2
3
4
5
6
7E
xpor
ts (
Trill
ion
US
200
0$)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Mig
rant
s (1
00 M
illio
n)
Global volume of exportsGlobal stock of migrants
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Migration is not a substitute for development
Some risk of long-termdependence on migration
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Migrants are the big winnersDespite commercialization of migration
These gains to migrants are a form of development
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But migration can have important impacts on development at home
Not all impacts are positive
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Poverty alleviation greatestfrom low-skill
circular migration
• High levels of remittances reach poor
• Low skill workers at home benefit
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Reported Remittances Sent per Migrant (2000)
Source: IMF Balance of Payments Statistics and UN Trends in Migrant Stock
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
US
$
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But migration of low skilled workers to OECD
is largely from neighboring countries
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Low-Skill Migration Rates to OECD
<1%<2%<3%<5%<10%>10%
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Low Education Adult Migrants In EU-15 By region of origin (2000)
W Europe
Americas
E EuropeFormer Soviet
S AsiaE Asia
W Asia
N Africa
SS Africa
Data Source: OECD Database on Expatriates and Immigrants, 2004
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South-South Migration Dominates
For Low Skill Workers From Low Income Countries
Most is irregularCalls for bilateral/regional agreements
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High Skill Migration to OECD Growing RapidlyPercent of tertiary educated population abroad in OECD: 2000
<2%<5%<10%<20%>20%
Source: Mapped from Docquier and Marfouk (2005)
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Tertiary Educated, Non-OECD Adults In EU-15 By region of origin (2000)
Data Source: OECD Database on Expatriates and Immigrants, 2004
Europe
Former Soviet
C America
S America
S AsiaE Asia
Middle E
N Africa
SS Africa
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Low
MiddleHigh
Low MiddleHigh
Europe America0
5
10
15M
illion
s
Non-OECDOECD origin
High Skill Migration to N America DominatesExpatriates in OECD Countries: 2000
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Distribution of Tertiary Educated Population From E Europe in OECD: 2000
RussiaLatvia
MoldovaUkraine
HungaryPoland
RomaniaBelarusCroatia
Czech RepublicLithuania
AlbaniaSlovenia
EstoniaBosnia and Herzegovi
BulgariaSlovakia
Serbia and MontenegrMacedonia
0 20 40 60 80 100Percent
Other EuropeEU15 N America
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Migration policies of high income countries
• Not part of coherent development strategy
• Competition to attract highly skilled (students)
• Yet protect low skill sectors (agriculture)
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Low-Skill Temporary Migration Schemes Present a Dilemma
• Integration and rights of migrantsFamily separation & social effects
• Managing returnTransferable pension schemesMode 4 and contractingCost of re-entry (irregulars)