International Cooperation on Energy Data Transparency, Outlooks, and Harmonization of Data Exploration, Production, Processing 2015 International Forum – Moscow

Fuad A Al-Zayer

Global Coordinator, Energy Data Transparency, IEF

Moscow| Nov 17-19 | 2015

Session : Scenario, Forecasts, & Statistics

• Directions for development of international systems of energy statistics

• Modern energy scenarios and projections

• Role of energy scenarios for strategic planning

• New approaches to improve energy scenarios, increasing their transparency

• Prospects for international cooperation

Presentation Flow

1. IEF Role on Energy Dialogue & International Cooperation

2. Energy Data Transparency (JODI)

3. Global Energy Outlooks Comparisons: IEA-IEF-OPEC Cooperation Model

Presentation Flow

1. IEF Role on Energy Dialogue & International Cooperation

2. Energy Data Transparency (JODI)

3. Global Energy Outlooks Comparisons: IEA-IEF-OPEC Cooperation Model

IEF Platform for Dialogue: Created by Ministers for

Ministers

IEF Member Countries

Global Oil and Gas

Supply & Demand

of

IEF Industry Advisory Committee (IAC)

Neutrality and Cooperation

Experts

Ministers

OPEC

G20

IEA

EU

UNSD Eurostat APEC OLADE

Officials

Academia

IGU

Producer

CEOs

Consumer

Transit

GECF

IEF Platform for Energy Dialogue

•Neutrality •Inclusion: Global Cooperation •Transparency (JODI)

Russia: Supporter of Energy Dialogue and IEF Platform

Presentation Flow

1. IEF Role on Energy Dialogue & International Cooperation

2. Energy Data Transparency (JODI)

3. Global Energy Outlooks Comparisons: IEA-IEF-OPEC Cooperation Model

JODI: Concrete Cooperation of International Organisation, Countries, and Industry

Why Do We Need Energy Data

Transparency (JODI)?

JODI was born in Early 2000 to Address Oil Prices Volatility

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%1

99

2

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Source: ICE

Source: OPEC World Oil Outlook 2014

35 35 32

27 29 30 30

29

23 23 24 26

6 6 6 6

3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5

1 1 1 4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2020 2035

%

Oil Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass Other Renewables

JODI Started with JODI-Oil: The Leader of Energy Sources

15

Bangkok Apr 01

Riyadh Nov 01

Mexico May 02

Osaka 2002

Cairo Oct 03

Doha 2006

Riyadh 2000

Bali Oct 04

Riyadh Nov 06

A’dam 2004

Rome 2008

Quito Jun 09

Cancun 2010

Kuwait 2012

Moscow 2014

Moscow Oct 10

Beijing Oct 11

KL Nov 09

Bangkok Sep 08

Riyadh Mar 08

Algiers Oct 07

J’burg Jan 07

Rabat Oct 12

Doha May 12

Caracas Aug 06

Ankara Nov 09

JT1

JT4

JT6

JT5

JT3

JT2

JT7

JC1

JC2

JC3

JC4

JC5

JC6

JC7

JC8

GDTC1

GDTC2

Public Release of JODI-Oil World Database

Riyadh Nov 05

JODE – JODI (permanent mechanism)

Launch of the JODE

Decision to make Database Public

Focus on Data Quality

Extended JODI Questionnaire

Public Release of Trade Data

19 November 2005 Launch of JODI Database by King Abdullah

2nd Edition JODI-Oil

Manual JODI-Gas Manual Launch JODI Gas

The Journey of JODI: Presence on International Stage

New Delhi Apr 15

JC12

GECF Joins Apr 14

JODI-Oil Launched: Riyadh 2005

JODI-Gas Launched: Moscow 2014

Russia Big Supporter of JODI

JODI Conferences: Key to Advance JODI

Forward

Regional Capacity Building: Key to Deliver

Goals of Energy Transparency

JODI Capacity Building: Plans for

2016

• Regional JODI Training Workshop for Asia and

Pacific Region.

• Regional JODI Training Workshop for CIS Region.

• Plans Underway Regarding a Host and

Translation of JODI Manuals.

Efforts to Extend JODI-Oil Reach

Increasing JODI-Oil Participating Countries

May 2014

101

May 2015

108

Armenia Belarus Gambia Niger Tajikistan the FYR of Macedonia Mauritius

Efforts to Extend JODI-Gas

Reach:

Increasing JODI-Gas Participating Countries

May 2014

77

May 2015

79

Iraq the FYR of Macedonia

JODI Featured regularly in

international media

JODI: High on the Political Agenda

The 4th Asian Ministerial Energy Roundtable

April 2011, Kuwait City

G8 Actions on Energy & Climate Change

May 2012, Camp David, USA

14th International Energy Forum

May 2014, Moscow

4th IEF-IGU Ministerial Meeting

November 2014, Acapulco Mexico

G20 Meetings and Summits

Feedback From Leaders

“...we commit to strengthen Joint Organisations Data Initiative by ensuring greater visibility, more complete and comprehensive data,…” - G20 Leaders Declaration: September 2013 “..The recent launch of JODI-Gas at the 14th IEF Ministerial was an important step to bring about data transparency to gas markets…” - Dr Aldo Flores-Quiroga, SG IEF at 4th IEF-IGU Mexico: November 2014 “ There was strong support for the progress on the usage and data capture, particularly with the launch of JODI Gas last year....” G20 ESWG Meeting Turkey February 2015

JODI: It is Not a Database. It is a

Commitment

• Supports Sound Decision-Making

• Encourages investments

• Reduces market volatility

• Ensures market stability

• Assist countries to structure legal and institutional

framework for improved industry Data Transparency

• Improves Forecasts & Outlooks

Presentation Flow

1. IEF Role on Energy Dialogue & International Cooperation

2. Energy Data Transparency (JODI)

3. Global Energy Outlooks Comparisons: IEA-IEF-OPEC Cooperation Model

IEA-IEF-OPEC Cooperation Model

• Cancún Ministerial Declaration in 2010.

• A joint Symposium is held in Riyadh annually to address this

issue.

• Joint work to harmonise basic concepts and make outlooks more comparable.

Annual IEA-IEF-OPEC Outlook Symposium

Outlook Comparisons: IEF- Duke University Report

Follow Up Technical Meetings Between IEA-IEF-OPEC on Data

• Discuss Differences of methods and definitions

• Harmonisation meetings between IEA, IEF, & OPEC– On Going

(3 meetings in 2015)

Upcoming Symposium 2016

• Date for Symposium set for Feb 16&17 2016

• To be held in Riyadh

• To be attended SG OPEC, Deputy ED IEA

• Presence of High Dignitaries, High Level Experts, etc.

Key Observations on Latest 2014 Outlooks

Assumptions on the impact of efficiency gains and lower prices differ

Data transparency aligns views on stronger OECD supply growth:

The low price environment is to test the near perfect IEA OPEC alignment on Canadian / US supply growth

Long term economic growth assumption differentials center on China and Russian GDP forecasts:

IEA and OPEC converge on OECD and non-OECD liquid demand:

2040

Dialogue on outlook projections remains important

Challenge for Investment Decisions: Oil demand Forecast gap could be as much 35.6 mb/d in 2040

Conclusion

• Energy Dialogue & International Cooperation is Key to Better Understand Global Energy Market

• JODI: Fundamental Deliverable of international cooperation

• IEA-IEF-OPEC Cooperation Model and Annual Symposiums: Good Working Model to Improve Energy Scenarios & Outlooks

• Russia: A Key Contributor to Energy Dialogue & (JODI)

Global energy demand continues to grow but at a slower rate:

IEA and OPEC differ on the role of Non-OPEC supply sources and NGLs

2040