INTERIM REPORT FOR THE Decadal Plan for Semiconductors€¦ · Decada an Interim Report....

Semiconductor Research CorporationSemiconductor Industry Association

Decadal Plan for SemiconductorsI N T E R I M R E P O R T F O R T H E

Acronym DefinitionsAI ArtificialIntelligence

aJ attojoule(10-18joules)

bps bit-per-second

CPU CentralProcessingUnit

CMOS ComplementaryMetal-Oxide-Semiconductor

DNA DeoxyriboNucleicAcid

DRAM Dynamic Random-Access Memory

FPGA Field-ProgrammableGateArray

GPU GraphicsProcessingUnit

IoT InternetofThings

ICT InformationandCommunicationTechnologies

I/O Input/Output

IPblock semiconductorIntellectualPropertycore

HW Hardware

NANDflash highest-densitysilicon-basedelectronicnonvolatilememory

Mbps megabit-per-second

MIMO Multiple-InputandMultiple-Output

mm-Wave millimeterwave

nJ nanojoule(10-9joules)

NVM NonvolatileMemory

R&D ResearchandDevelopment

SIA Semiconductor Industry Association

SRC Semiconductor Research Corporation

SW Software

Tbps terabit-per-second

THz Terahertz

Zettabyte 1021 bytes

ZIPS 1021 compute instructions per second

Decadal Plan Executive CommitteeJamesAng,PNNL

DmytroApalkov,Samsung

FariAssaderaghi, Sunrise Memory

RalphCavin,SRC

RameshChauhan,Qualcomm

AnChen,IBM

RichardChow,Intel

RobertClark,TEL

MaryamCope,SIA

DebraDelise, AnalogDevices

CarlosDiaz,TSMC

BobDoering, TexasInstruments

SeanEilert,Micron

KenHansen,SRC

BaherHaroun, TexasInstruments

Yeon-CheolHeo,Samsung

GilbertHerrera,SNL

KevinKemp,NXP

TaffyKingscott,IBM

StephenKosonocky,AMD

MatthewKlusas,Amazon

SteveKramer,Micron

DonnyKwak,Samsung

LawrenceLoh,MediaTek

RaficMakki,Mubadala

MatthewMarinella,SNL

Seong-HoPark,SKhynix

DavidPellerin,Amazon

DanielRasic,SRC

BenRathsak,TEL

WallyRhines, Mentor Graphics

HeikeRiel,IBM

KirillRivkin,WesternDigital

GurtejSandhu,Micron

GhavamShahidi,IBM

SteveSon,SKhynix

MarkSomervell,TEL

GilroyVandentop,Intel

JeffreyVetter,ORNL

JeffreyWelser,IBM

JimWieser, TexasInstruments

IanYoung,Intel

DavidYeh,TI&SRC

VictorZhirnov,SRC

ZoranZvonar, AnalogDevices

The Decadal Plan Workshops that helped drive this report were supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Advanced

Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) and Basic Energy Sciences (BES) Research Programs, and the National Nuclear

Security Agency, Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) Program. SIA and SRC are grateful for their support.

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Decadal Plan Interim Report

Semiconductors, the tiny and highly advanced chips that power modern electronics, have helped give rise to the

greatest period of technological advancement in the history of humankind.

Chip-enabled technology now allows us to analyze DNA sequences to treat disease, model nerve synapses in

the brain to help people with mental disorders like Alzheimer’s, design and build safer and more reliable cars

and passenger jets, improve the energy efficiency of buildings, and perform countless other tasks that improve

people’s lives.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the world has come to rely more heavily on semiconductor-enabled technology to

work, study, communicate, treat illness, and do innumerable other tasks remotely. And the future holds boundless

potential for semiconductor technology, with emerging applications such as artificial intelligence, quantum

computing, and advanced wireless technologies like 5G and 6G promising incalculable benefits to society.

Fulfilling that promise, however, will require taking action to address a range of seismic shifts shaping the

future of chip technology. These seismic shifts—identified in The Decadal Plan for Semiconductors by a broad

cross-section of leaders in academia, government, and industry—involve smart sensing, memory and storage,

communication, security, and energy efficiency. The federal government, in partnership with private industry,

must invest ambitiously in semiconductor research in these areas to sustain the future of chip innovation.

For decades, federal government and private sector investments in semiconductor research and development

(R&D) have propelled the rapid pace of innovation in the U.S. semiconductor industry, making it the global

leader and spurring tremendous growth throughout the U.S. economy. The U.S. semiconductor industry invests

about one-fifth of its revenues each year in R&D, one of the highest shares of any industry. With America

facing increasing competition from abroad and mounting costs and challenges associated with maintaining the

breakneck pace of innovation, now is the time to maintain and strengthen public-private research partnerships.

As Congress works to refocus America’s research ecosystem on maintaining semiconductor innovation and

competitiveness, The Decadal Plan for Semiconductors outlines semiconductor research priorities across

the seismic shifts noted above and recommends an additional federal investment of $3.4 billion annually

across these five areas. The interim report is included here, and the full report is scheduled to be released in

December 2020.

Working together, we can boost semiconductor technology and keep it strong, competitive, and at the tip of

the innovation spear.

JohnNeuffer

President&CEO

SemiconductorIndustryAssociation(SIA)

ToddYounkin

President&CEO

SemiconductorResearchCorporation(SRC)

Sincerely,

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Executive Summary

necessary generational improvements in the energy-efficiency with

which information is processed, communicated, stored, sensed

and actuated on. Long term sustainable ICT growth will rely on

breakthroughs in semiconductor technology capabilities that

enable holistic solutions to tackle information processing efficiency.

Disruptive breakthroughs are needed in the areas of software,

systems, architectures, circuits, device structure and the related

processes and materials that require timely and well-coordinated

multidisciplinary research efforts.

This Decadal Plan for Semiconductors outlines research priorities in

information processing, sensing, communication, storage, and security

seeking to ensure sustainable growth for semiconductor and ICT

industries by:

• informing and supporting the strategic visions of semiconductor

companies and government agencies

• guiding a (r)evolution of cooperative academic, industry and

government research programs

• placing ‘a stake in the ground’ to challenge the best and brightest

researchers, university faculty and students

The U.S. semiconductor industry leads the

world in innovation, based in large part on

aggressive research and development (R&D)

spending. The industry invests nearly one-

fifth of its annual revenue in R&D each year,

second only to the pharmaceuticals sector. In

addition, Federal funding of semiconductor

R&D serves as the catalyst for private R&D

spending. Together, private and Federal

semiconductor R&D investments have

sustained the pace of innovation in the U.S.,

enabling it to become the global leader in

the semiconductor industry. Those R&D

investments have nurtured the development

of innovative and commercially viable

products, and as a direct result, have led to a

significant contribution to the U.S. economy

and jobs.

The current hardware-software (HW-SW)

paradigm in information and communication

technologies (ICT) has made computing

ubiquitous through sustained innovation

in software and algorithms, systems

architecture, circuits, devices, materials,

and semiconductor process technologies

among others. However, ICT is facing

unprecedented technological challenges

for maintaining its growth rate levels

into the next decade. These challenges

arise largely from approaching various

fundamental limitations in semiconductor

technology that taper the otherwise

FigurecourtesyofAnalogDevices,Inc.

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The Grand ChallengeInformationandcommunicationtechnologiesmakeupover70%ofthesemiconductormarketshare.Theycontinuetogrow

withoutboundsdominatedbytheexponentialcreationofdatathatmustbemoved,stored,computed,communicated,secured

andconvertedtoenduserinformation.Therecentexplosionofartificialintelligence(AI)applicationsisaclearexample,andas

anindustrywehaveonlybeguntoscratchthesurface.

Havingcomputingsystemsmoveintodomainswithtruecognition,i.e.,acquiringunderstandingthroughexperience,reasoning

andperceptionisanewregime.Thisregimeisunachievablewiththestate-of-the-artsemiconductortechnologiesand

traditionalgainssincethereductioninfeaturesize(i.e.,dimensionalscaling)toimproveperformanceandreducecostsin

semiconductorsisreachingitsphysicallimits.Asaresult,thecurrentparadigmmustchangetoaddressaninformationand

intelligence-basedvaluepropositionwithsemiconductortechnologiesasthedriver.

Seismic shift #1

Fundamentalbreakthroughsinanaloghardwarearerequiredtogeneratesmarterworld-machineinterfacesthatcansense,

perceive and reason . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7

Seismic shift #2

Thegrowthofmemorydemandswilloutstripglobalsiliconsupplypresentingopportunitiesforradicallynewmemoryand

storagesolutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Seismic shift #3

Alwaysavailablecommunicationrequiresnewresearchdirectionsthataddresstheimbalanceofcommunicationcapacityvs.

datagenerationrates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Seismic shift #4

Breakthroughsinhardwareresearchareneededtoaddressemergingsecuritychallengesinhighlyinterconnectedsystemsand

ArtificialIntelligence. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Seismic shift #5

Everrisingenergydemandsforcomputingvs.globalenergyproductioniscreatingnewrisk,andnewcomputingparadigms

offeropportunitieswithdramaticallyimprovedenergyefficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Trends and driversCurrentlyinformationandcommunicationtechnologiesarefacingfivemajorseismicshifts:

The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) June 2020 report1 demonstrates that federal investment in semiconductor

R&D spurs U.S. economic growth and job creation and presents a case for a 3x increase in semiconductor-specific federal

funding. For every dollar spent on federal semiconductor research has resulted in a $16.50 increase in current GDP.

The Decadal Plan for Semiconductors complements this report and identifies specific goals with quantitative targets.

It is expected that the Decadal Plan will have a major impact on the semiconductor industry, similar to the impact of

the 1984 10-year SRC Research Goals document that was continued in 1994 as the National Technology Roadmap for

Semiconductors, and which later became the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors in 1999.

[1]SparkingInnovation:HowFederalInvestmentinSemiconductorR&DSpursU.S.EconomicGrowthandJobCreation,SIAReport,June2020

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Call to Action: Semiconductor Technology Leadership InitiativeMaintainingandstrengtheningtheleadershipoftheUnited

StatesinICTduringthisnewsemiconductorerarequires

asustainedadditional$3.4Bfederalinvestmentperyear

throughoutthisdecade(i.e.triplingFederalfundingfor

semiconductorresearch)toconductlarge-scaleindustry-

relevant,fundamentalsemiconductorresearch.(TheDecadal

PlanExecutiveCommitteeofferedrecommendationson

allocationoftheadditional$3.4Binvestmentperyear

amongthefiveseismicshiftsidentifiedintheDecadalPlan.

Thebasisofallocationisthemarketsharetrendandour

analysisoftheR&Drequirementsfordifferentsemiconductor

andICTtechnologies).

Theinvestmentsthroughnewpublic-privatepartnerships

mustcoverawidebreadthofinterdependenttechnicalareas

(compute,analog,memory/storage,communications,and

security)requiringmulti-disciplinaryteamstomaintainU.S.

semiconductortechnologyleadership.

Theseinvestmentsneedtobeorganizedandcoordinatedto

supportacommonsetofgoalsfocusedonmarketdemandto

providetechnologieswhichenablenewcommercialproducts

andservicesoverthecourseoftheprogram.TheDecadal

Planhasidentifiedfiveseismicparadigmshiftsrequiredto

accomplishthisoverarchingGrandChallenge.

A Note on Funding Strategic National Initiatives:

TheDecadalPlanservesasablueprintforpolicymakers

whorecognizethischallengeandseekguidanceonareasof

researchemphasisforscientificresearchagenciesandpublic-

privatepartnerships.

Semiconductor Technology Breakthroughs Rely OnHolistic Optimal Solutions

Driven by Hardware/Software Co-OptimizationInterlocked Multidisciplinary Research

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Seismic shift #1 Fundamentalbreakthroughsinanaloghardwarearerequiredtogeneratesmarterworld-machine

interfacesthatcansense,perceiveandreason.

Seismic shift #2 Thegrowthofmemorydemandswilloutstripglobalsiliconsupplypresentingopportunitiesforradically

newmemoryandstoragesolutions.

Seismic shift #3 Alwaysavailablecommunicationrequiresnewresearchdirectionsthataddresstheimbalanceof

communicationcapacityvs.datagenerationrates.

Seismic shift #4 Breakthroughsinhardwareresearchareneededtoaddressemergingsecuritychallengesinhighly

interconnectedsystemsandArtificialIntelligence.

Seismic shift #5 Everrisingenergydemandsforcomputingvs.globalenergyproductioniscreatingnewrisk,andnew

computingparadigmsofferopportunitieswithdramaticallyimprovedenergyefficiency.

Currentlyinformationandcommunicationtechnologiesarefacingfivemajorseismicshifts:

1. Introduction

TosupporttheDecadalPlandevelopment,aninternationalseriesoffiveface-to-faceworkshopshasbeenconductedtoassess

quantitativelyeachseismicshift,assigntargetsandsuggestinitialresearchdirections.Participantsandcontributorstothese

workshopsincludedacademic,governmentandindustrialdomainexperts.Theoutputoftheseworkshopshasguidedthe

recommendationsinthe2020DecadalPlanforSemiconductors.

Theseworkshopsprovidedhighlyinteractiveforumswherekeyresearchleadersevaluatedthestatusofnanoelectronicsresearch

andapplicationdrivers,discussedkeyscientificissues,anddefinedpromisingfutureresearchdirections.Thisisinstrumentalfor

the2020versionoftheDecadalPlanforSemiconductorstoreflectaninformedviewonkeyscientificandtechnicalchallenges

relatedtorevolutionaryinformationandcommunicationtechnologies,basedonnewquantitativeanalysesandprojections.

The primary objectives of the Decadal Plan include • Identify significant trends and applications that are driving Information and Communication Technologies and the

associated roadblocks/challenges.

• Assess quantitatively the potential and status of the five seismic shifts that will impact future ICT.

• Identify fundamental goals and targets to alter the current trajectory of semiconductor technology.

The Decadal Plan provides an executive overview of the global drivers and constraints for the future ICT industry, rather

than to offer/discuss specific solutions: The document identifies the what, not the how. In doing so, it focuses and

organizes the best of our energies and skills to the key challenges in a quantitative manner about which creative

solutions can be imagined and their impact measured.

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Seismic shift #1Fundamental breakthroughs in analog hardware are required to generate smarter world-machine interfaces that can sense, perceive and reason.

Analogelectronicsdealswithreal-worldcontinuouslyvariablesignalsofmultipleshapes(incontrasttodigitalelectronicswhere

signalsareusuallyofstandardshapetakingonlytwolevels,onesorzeros).Theanalogelectronicsdomainencompassesmultiple

dimensionsasshowninFigure1.Also,allinputshumancanperceiveareanalog,whichcallsforbio-inspiredsolutionsforworld-machine

interfacesthatcansense,perceiveandreasonbasedonultra-compressedsensingcapabilityandlowoperationpower(Figure2).

Thephysicalworldisinherentlyanalogandthe“digitalsociety”placesanincreasingdemandforadvancedanalogelectronicsto

enableinteractionbetweenthephysicalandcomputer“worlds.”

SensingtheenvironmentaroundusisfundamentaltothenextgenerationofAIwheredeviceswillbecapableofperceptionand

reasoning.Theworld-machineinterfaceliesattheheartofthecurrent information-centric economy.Asoneexample,thenext

waveoftheadvancedmanufacturingrevolutionisexpectedtocomefromnext-generationanalog-drivenindustrialelectronics,

thatincludessensing,robotics,industrial,automotive,medicaletc.Formissioncriticalapplications,thereliabilityofelectronic

componentsisapriority.Today,forexample,analogchipsconstitute80%offailuresinautomotiveelectronics,whichisten

timesworsethandigitalchips.

Figure1:TheDimensionsofAnalogElectronics

Conscious bits100 bps

8.75 Mbps

Figure2:Thebrain’sabilitytoperceiveandreasonisbasedonultra-compressedsensingcapabilitieswith100,000datareductionandalowoperationpower

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Theestimatedtotalanaloginformationgeneratedfromthe

physicalworldisequivalentto~1034bit/s.Asareference,

thetotalcollectivehumansensorythroughputpalesat

~1017bit/s(Figure3).Thus,ourabilitytoperceivethe

physicalworldissignificantlylimited.Therearetremendous

opportunitiesforfutureanalogelectronicsthataugmentthe

humansensorysystem,whichisexpectedtohavesignificant

economicandsocialconsequences.Examplesinclude,butare

notlimitedto,creatingmultimediathatspecificallytargets

humansensoryandcognitivesystems,includingnervous

systeminterfacesandcommunications.Thiscanresultin

newhuman-centrictechnologiessuchasmulti-sensing-based

medicaldiagnosticsandtherapy,completevirtualrealitywith

virtualaromasynthesizers,oractiveodorcancellationbased

onindoorairquality.

Todaytheabilitytogenerateanalogdataisgrowingfaster

thanourabilitytointelligentlyusethedata.Thissituationwill

becomeevenmoreseriousinthenearfuture,whendatafrom

ourlivesaswellasfromIoTsensorsmaycreateananalog

datadelugethatwillobscurevaluableinformationwhen

weneeditthemost.Sensortechnologiesareexperiencing

exponentialgrowthwithforecastsof~45trillionsensors

in2032thatwillgenerate>1millionzettabytes(1027bytes)

ofdataperyear.Thisisequivalentto~1020bit/s,thereby

surpassing the collective human sensing throughput.

Therefore,asignificantparadigmshifttowardsextractingkey

informationinthepredicteddatadelugeandapplyingitin

anappropriatewayiskeytoharnessingthedatarevolution.

Thus,theAnalog Grand Goalisforrevolutionarytechnologies

toincreaseuseful/actionableinformationwithlessenergy

anddatabitse.g.sensing-to-analog-to-informationreduction

withapracticalcompression/reductionratioof105:1.

Formanyreal-timeapplications,thevalueofsensory

dataisbrief,sometimesonlyafewmilliseconds.Thedata

mustbeutilizedwithinthattimeframeandinmanycases

locallyforlatencyandsecurityconsiderations.Therefore,

pursuingbreakthroughadvancesininformationprocessing

technologiessuchasdevelopinghierarchicalperception

algorithmsthatenableunderstandingoftheenvironment

fromrawsensordataisafundamentalrequirement.New

computingmodelssuchasanalog“approximatecomputing”

arerequired.ThisisalignedwiththeGrandGoal#5of

discoveringaradicallynew‘computingtrajectory’,outlined

later.Newanalogtechnologiescanalsooffergreat

advancementsincommunicationtechnologies.Evenin

computer-to-computercommunication,analoginterfaces

arerequiredatlongdistances.Theabilitytocollect,process

andcommunicatetheanalogdataattheinput/output(I/O)

boundariesiscriticaltothefutureworldofIoTandBigData.

AnalogtechnologyadvancementstotheTHzregimewillbe

requiredforboththesensingandcommunicationneedsof

thefuture.

Grand Goal #1:

Analog-to-informationcompression/reductionwitha

practicalcompression/reductionratioof105:1thatdrives

toapracticaluseofinformationversus“data”inaway

thatismoreanalogoustothehumanbrain.

Figure3:Trendinworld’sinstalledsensingcapacities

45 Trillion sensors in 2032

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Call for ActionTheanaloginterfacebridgesthephysicalanddigitalworlds.Ourcollectiveabilitytoaccesstheinformationofthephysical

worldthroughanalogsignalsis10,000trilliontimesbelowwhatisavailable,andradicaladvancesinanalogelectronicswillbe

requiredsoon.Newapproachestosensingsuchassensing to action,analog“artificialintelligence”(AI)platforms,braininspired/

neuromorphicandhierarchicalcomputation,orothersolutionswillbenecessary.Breakthroughadvancesininformation

processingtechnologies,suchasdevelopingperceptionalgorithmstoenableunderstandingoftheenvironmentfromraw

sensordata,areafundamentalrequirement.Newcomputingmodelssuchasanalog“approximatecomputing,”whichcantrade

energyandcomputingtimewithaccuracyofoutput(presumablyhowthebraindoes)arerequired.Newanalogtechnologieswill

offergreatadvancementsincommunicationtechnologies.Theabilitytocollect,processandcommunicatetheanalogdataat

theinput/outputboundariesiscriticaltothefutureworldofIoTandBigData.Additionally,analogdevelopmentmethodologies

requireastepincrease(10xorgreater)inproductivitytoaddresstheapplicationexplosioninatimelymanner.Altogether,

collaborativeresearchtoestablishrevolutionaryparadigmsforfutureenergy-efficientanalogintegratedcircuitsforthevast

rangeoffuturedatatypes,workloadsandapplicationsisneeded.

[2]TheDecadalPlanExecutiveCommitteeofferedrecommendationsonallocationoftheadditional$3.4BinvestmentamongthefiveseismicshiftsidentifiedintheDecadalPlan.ThebasisofallocationisthemarketsharetrendandouranalysisoftheR&DrequirementsfordifferentsemiconductorandICTtechnologies.

Invest $600M annually throughout this decade in new trajectories for analog electronics. Selected priority research themes

are outlined below.2

AnalogBioinspiredMachineLearning

THzRegimeAnalog

AnalogDevelopmentMethodology

Priority Research Themes

Trainableneuromorphicsignalconverters

Goal: 100,000:1 Data Reduction

Sensing to Action goalwillnotbepossiblewithoutintegratedsystem

solutionswithsignificantincreaseindesignmethodsandproductivity.

Analog-to-DigitalAnalog-to-Information

Sensing to Action

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Seismic shift #2The growth of memory demands will outstrip global silicon supply presenting opportunities for radically new memory and storage solutions.

RadicalnewsolutionsinMemory

andStoragetechnologieswillbe

needed for future ICT with major

innovationsindevices,circuitsand

architectures.Byendofthisdecade,

thecontinuingimprovementsinICT

energyefficiencyandperformancewill

stallastheunderlyingmemory,and

storagetechnologieswillmeetscaling

limitations.Atthesametime,training

dataforAIapplicationsisexploding

withnolimitinsight.Itisbecoming

increasinglyclearthatinfuture

informationprocessingapplications,

synergisticinnovationsfrommaterials

and devices to circuits and system-

levelfunctions,likelyusingunexplored

physicalprinciples,willbeakeyto

achievingnewlevelsofbitdensity,

energy-efficiencyandperformance.

Globaldemandfordatastoragegrows

exponentially,andtoday’sstorage

technologieswillnotbesustainablein

nearfutureduetoexcessivematerial

resources needed to support the

ongoingDataExplosion.Thus,new

radicalsolutionsfordata/information

storagetechnologiesandmethodsare

required.Figure4showstheprojections

ofglobaldatastoragedemand—both

a conservative estimate and an upper

bound.AsindicatedbyFigure4,future

informationandcommunicationtechnologiesareexpectedtogenerateenormous

amountsofdata,farsurpassingtoday’sdataflows.Currently,theproductionanduse

ofinformationhasbeengrowingexponentially,andby2040theestimatesforthe

worldwideamountofstoreddataarebetween1024and1028bitsasshowninFigure4.

Furthermore,asaresult,whiletheweight of a single bitinthecaseofultimatelyscaled

NANDflashmemoryis1picogram(10-12g),thetotal massofsiliconwafersrequiredto

store1026bitswouldbeapproximately1010kg,whichwouldexceedtheworld’stotal

availablesiliconsupply(Figure5).

ChallengeGlobaldemandforconventionalsilicon-basedmemory/storageisgrowing

exponentially(Figure4),whilesiliconproductionisgrowingonlylinearly(Figure5).

Thisdisparityguaranteesthatsilicon-basedmemorywillbecomeprohibitively

expensiveforZetta-scale“bigdata”deploymentswithintwodecades.

Figure4:Globaldemandformemoryandstorage(utilizingsiliconwafers),isprojectedtoexceedtheamountofglobalsiliconthatcanbeconvertedintowafers.

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Grand Goal #2a:

Developemergingmemoriesandmemoryfabricswith>10-100X

densityandenergyefficiencyimprovementforeachlevelofthe

memoryhierarchy.

Grand Goal #2b:

GrandGoal#3b:Discoverstoragetechnologieswith>100xstorage

densitycapabilityandnewstoragesystemsthatcanleveragethese

newtechnologies.

Inaddition,memory,suchasDRAM,isanessential

component of computers and further advances in

computingareimpossiblewithout‘reinventing’

thecomputememorysystemincludingdevice

physics,memoryhierarchyarchitectureand

physicalimplementation.Forexample,traditional

embeddednonvolatilememorycannolonger

bescaledbelow28nm,thusalternativesare

needed.Finally,newmemorysolutionsmustbe

abletosupportmultipleemergingapplications,

suchas,e.g.artificialintelligence,large-scale

heterogeneoushigh-performanceanddata-center

computing,andvariousmobileapplicationsthat

alsomeettheruggedenvironmentalrequirements

oftheautomotivemarket,etc.

Call for ActionRadicaladvancesinmemoryanddatastorage

arerequiredsoon.Collaborativeresearch‘from

materialstodevicestocircuitstoarchitectureto

processingandsolutions’forfuturehigh-capacity

energy-efficientmemoryanddata/information

storagesolutionsforthevastrangeoffuture

applicationsisneeded.


Figure5:GlobalSiwafersupply:1990-2020dataandfuturetrend.

Invest $750M annually throughout this decade in new trajectories for memory and storage. Selected priority research themes

are outlined below.3

Fast,dense,energyefficient,cost-effective,embeddednon-volatilememories

MemoryandStoragefornewinformationrepresentationparadigms

Memoryforquantumprocessors

Fundamentalnewstoragetechnologies(i.e.DNA)


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growingtrendonedgecomputingforAIsystemstocaterforprivacy

andfasterresponsetime,theexplosionofinformationgenerated

andstoredwillrequiretremendousgrowthoncloudstorageand

communicationinfra-structure.

Thecurrentstateofthedevelopedworldis

characterizedby(almost)always-available

communicationandconnectivity,whichhas

atremendousimpactonallaspectsoflife.A

manifestationofthisisCloudStorageandComputing.

Theabilitytogetdatafromanywhereandsendit

to everywhere has transformed both the way we do

businessandourpersonalhabitsandlifestyle.Social

networksareanexample.However,themainconcept

ofthecloudisbasedontheassumptionofconstant

connectivity,whichisnotguaranteed.Furthermore,

thedemandgrowsdailyforcommunicationtobecome

moreubiquitousaswebecomemoreconnected.An

alarmingtrendisagrowinggapbetweentheworld’s

technologicalinformationstorageneed,asjust

discussed,andcommunicationcapacitiesshownin

Figure6.Forexample,whilecurrentlyitispossibleto

transmitallworld’sstoreddatainlessthanoneyear,

in2040itispredictedtorequireatleast20yearsfor

thetransmission.Aglobalstorage-communication

cross-overisexpectedtohappenaround2022which

mayhaveatremendousimpactonICT.Evenwith

Seismic shift #3Always available communication requires new research directions that address the imbalance of communication capacity vs. data generation rates.

Figure6:TheGlobalCommunicationDataGenerationCrossoveroccurswhenthedatageneratedexceedstheworld’stechnologicalinformationstorageandcommunicationcapacities,creatinglimitationstotransmissionofdata.

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Grand Goal #3a:

Advancecommunicationtechnologiestoenablemoving

aroundallstoreddataof100-1000zettabyte/yearatthe

peakrateof1Tbps@<0.1nJ/bit.

Grand Goal #3b:

Developintelligentandagilenetworksthateffectively

utilizebandwidthtomaximizenetworkcapacity.

Call for ActionRadicaladvancesincommunicationwillberequired

toaddressgrowingdemand.Forexample,thecloud

technologiesmayundergosubstantialchangeswithemphasis

shiftingtowardedgecomputingandlocaldatastorage.

Broadbandcommunicationswillexpandbeyondsmart

phonestoimmersiveaugmentedreality,virtualmeetings

andsmartofficesettings.Newcapabilitieswillenrichuser

experiencesthroughnewusecasesandnewverticalmarkets.

Thisrequirescollaborativeresearchspanningabroadagenda

aimingatestablishingrevolutionaryparadigmstosupport

futurehigh-capacity,energy-efficientcommunicationforthe

vastrangeoffutureapplications.TheDOEOfficeofScience

publishedareportinMarch2020toidentifythepotential

opportunitiesandexplorethescientificchallengesof

advancedwirelesstechnologies.4

Challengeswouldincludewirelesscommunicationtechniques

expandingtoTHzregion,wirelessandwirelinetechnologies

interplay,newapproachestonetworkdensification,

increasingimportanceofsecurity,newarchitecturesfor

mm-wave,devicetechnologytosustainbandwidthandpower

requirements,packagingandthermalcontrol.

[4]https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1606539


Invest $700M annually throughout this decade in new trajectories for communication. Selected priority research themes are

outlined below.5

MIMOwith1000sofantennas

mm-Wavefiltersandisolators

“Wired”densityandefficiencycopperandoptical


mm-Wave CMOS

New physics of communication

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Seismic shift #4Breakthroughs in hardware research are needed to address emerging security challenges in highly interconnected systems and Artificial Intelligence.

encryptionstandardsresistanttoquantumattackmust

bedeveloped,withconsiderationgiventotheimpactof

thesestandardsonsystemperformance.Also,privacyhas

emergedasamajorpolicyissuedrawingincreasedattention

byconsumersandpolicymakersacrosstheglobe.Technical

approachestoenhancingprivacyincludeobfuscatingor

encryptingdataatthetimeofcollectionorrelease.

Inanotherdirection,deviceshavepermeatedthephysical

world,andthustrustinthesedevicesbecomesamatterof

safety.Securityhasthusneverbeenmoreimportant.Safety

Today’shighlyinterconnectedsystemsandapplications

requiresecurityandprivacyforproperoperation(Figure7).

Corporatenetworks,social-networkingandautonomous

systemsareallbuiltontheassumptionofreliableandsecure

communicationbutareexposedtovariousthreatsand

attacksrangingfromexposureofsensitivedatatodenial

ofservice.Thefieldofsecurityandprivacyisundergoing

rapidfluxthesedaysasnewusecases,newthreats,and

newplatformsemerge.Forinstance,newthreatvectors

throughtheemergenceofquantumcomputingwillcreate

vulnerabilitiesincurrentcryptographicmethods.Thus,new

Figure7:Systemsviewofsecurity(courtesyofYiorgosMakris/UniversityofTexasatDallas)

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andreliabilityofsystemsneedtoconsidermaliciousattacks

inadditiontothetraditionalconcernsofrandomfailures

anddegradationofphysical-worldsystems.Securityof

cyber-physicalsystemsneedstoconsiderhowtocontinue

tofunctionorfailgracefullyevenafterattacks.Weneed

intelligentalgorithmsthatsiftthroughcontextualdatato

evaluatetrust,todosecuresensorfusionovertime.Thisisa

difficultproblemascontextualdatahastremendousvariety

andquantity—thesystemsofthefutureareactuallysystems

ofsystemswithlimitlesspossibilitiesforcommunicationand

signaling.Forinstance,carscancommunicatewitheachother

andalsowithroadsideinfrastructure.Likehumans,weneed

toaugmentsystemswiththeintelligencetotrustornottrust

alltheyperceive.

Ourhardwareisalsochanging.Complexityistheenemyof

security,andtoday’shardwareplatformsarehighlycomplex

duetothedriversofperformanceandenergy-efficiency.

Modernsystem-on-chipdesignsincorporateanarrayof

special-purposeacceleratorsandintellectualproperty(IP)

blocks.Thesecurityarchitectureofthesesystemsiscomplex,

as these systems are now tiny distributed systems where

wemustbuilddistributedsecuritymodelswithdifferent

trustassumptionsforeachcomponent.Furthermore,

thesecomponentsareoftensourcedfromthird-parties,

implyingtheneedfortrustinthehardwaresupplychain.

Thepursuitofperformancehasalsoledtosubtleissuesin

microarchitecture.Forinstance,manyexistinghardware

platformsarevulnerabletospeculativeexecutionside-

channelissues,famouslyexposedbySpectreandMeltdown.

Drivenbytheseproblemsandothers,thefuturerequires

fundamentallynewhardwaredesigns.

ThemajorworkloadoftodayisAI.Manysecuritysystems,

forinstance,useanomalydetectiontoidentifyattacks

oremployfeatureanalysisforcontextualauthentication.

AI’scapabilitiescontinuetoincrease,andapplicationsfor

thesetrustedsystemscontinuetogrow.However,the

trustworthinessoftheAIforthesesystemsisunclear.Thisis

aproblemnotjustforsecuritysystemsbutevenforgeneral

systemswithimplicittrustassumptions,forinstance,visual

objectdetectioninautonomousvehicles.Researchershave

shownthatsmallperturbationstoanimagecanswayneural

networkmodelsintothewrongconclusion.Awell-placed

smallstickeronastopsigncanmakeamodelclassifyitas

aSpeedLimit45sign.6Otherapplicationsofdeeplearning

systemshavesimilartrustissues:theoutputofspeech

recognitionmightbemanipulatedwithimperceptibleaudio

changes,ormalwaremightgoundetectedwithsmallchanges

tothebinary.Thebrittlenessofdeeplearningmodelsis

relatedtotheirfamousinscrutability.Neuralnetworksare

blackboxeswithnoexplanationfortheirdecisions.Other

importantproblemswithneuralnetworksarealgorithmbias

andfairness.Approachesareneededtomakedeeplearning

systemsmoretrusted,explainable,andfair.

Finally,inthelastdecade,thesystemsthatwemustsecure

havebecomeimmeasurablymorecomplex.Thecloudhas

becomethestandardforoutsourcingcomputationand

storage,whilemaintainingcontrol.Wearestillgrapplingwith

securitychallengesarisingfromthecloud—multi-tenancy,

providerassurance,andprivacy—whilecloudofferings

continuetoincreaseincomplexity.Cloudsnowoffertrusted

executionenvironmentsandspecialized,sharedhardware

andsoftware.Atthesametime,interestinedgecomputing

isgrowingaswerealizecloudslacktheperformanceand

privacyguaranteesofnearbycomputeinfrastructure.The

heterogeneousnatureoftheedgeimpliestrustinedge

serviceprovidersisamajorissueand,ofcourse,thesecurity

ofIoTdeviceshasplaguedusforyears.Developingsecurity

mustbemadeeasierforresource-constrained,oftenlow-cost

devices.Evenifcareistakeninthesecuritydesign,difficulties

arisefromextremeenvironments,suchasmedicalimplants.

Tocompoundtheproblem,systemshavebecomemore

complicatedateverylevel—modernsystem-on-chipdesigns

incorporateanarrayofspecial-purposeacceleratorsandIP

blocks,basicallytinydistributedsystemswherewemustbuild

distributedsecuritymodelswithdifferenttrustassumptions

foreachcomponent.

[6]“Whatisadversarialmachinelearning?”byBenDickson–July15,2020https://bdtechtalks.com/2020/07/15/machine-learning-adversarial-examples/

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Grand Goal #4:

Developsecurityandprivacyadvancesthatkeeppacewith

technology,newthreats,andnewusecases,forexample,

trustworthyandsafeautonomousandintelligentsystems,

securefuturehardwareplatforms,andemergingpost-

quantumanddistributedcryptographicalgorithms.

Call for ActionThepaceatwhichtoday’ssystemsareincreasinginintelligence

andubiquityisastounding.Atthesametime,theincreased

scaleandcomplexityofthesesystemshaveforcedhardware

specializationandoptimizationtoaddressperformance

challenges.Alltheseadvancesincapabilitymustgohand-

in-handwithadvancesinthesecurityandprivacy.Examples

includesecuringweaknessesinthemachine-learningor

conventionalcryptography,protectingprivacyofpersonaldata,

andaddressingvulnerabilitiesinthesupply-chainorhardware.


Invest $600M annually throughout this decade in new trajectories for ICT security. Selected priority research themes are

outlined below.7

Securityandprivacyoffuturehardwareplatforms,whicharecomposedof

heterogeneousandspecializedcomponentsandinvolvenewparadigmssuchas

quantumandneuromorphiccomputing

Emergingcryptography,suchashomomorphicencryptiontosupportnewuse

casesandpost-quantumalgorithmstothwartnewattacks

SecurityfornewsystemarchitecturesthatcomputeatallpointsfromIoTtoEdge

toCloud,aswellasmassivelydistributedprocessingsuchasinblockchains


AIsystemsthatincorporatemechanismstoenabletrustandyetareascapableas

today’ssystems

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Seismic shift #5Ever rising energy demands for computing vs. global energy production is creating new risk, and new computing paradigms offer opportunities with dramatically improved energy efficiency.

Rapidadvancesincomputinghaveprovidedincreased

performanceandenhancedfeaturesineachnewgeneration

ofproductsinnearlyeverymarketsegmentwhetheritbe

servers,PCs,communications,mobile,automotive,and

entertainmentamongothers.Theseadvanceshavebeen

enabledbydecadesofR&Dinvestmentsbyboththeprivate

sectorandthegovernmentyieldingexponentialgrowth

incomputespeed,energyefficiency,circuitdensity,and

cost-effectiveproductioncapacity.Sustainedinnovation

insoftwareandalgorithms,systemsarchitecture,circuits,

devices,materials,andsemiconductorprocesstechnologies,

havebeenfoundationaltothatgrowthpace.Althoughthis

trendhaspersistedfordecadesbysuccessfullyovercoming

manytechnologicalchallenges,itisnowrecognizedthat

conventionalcomputingisapproachingfundamentallimits

intheenergyefficiencyandthereforepresentingchallenges

thataremuchhardertosurmount.Consequently,disruptive

innovationsininformationrepresentation,information

processing,communication,andinformationstorageareall

pressingandcriticaltosustainableeconomicgrowthandthe

UnitedStatestechnologicalleadership.

Asthecomputationsperyearincreases,thenumberofbits

usedtosupportthesecomputationsalsoincreases.Itis

projectedthatin2050wewillbedealingwithnearly1044

bits.AsshowninFigure8a,thetotalenergyconsumptionby

general-purposecomputingcontinuestogrowexponentially

and is doubling approximately every 3 yearswhiletheworld’s

energyproductionisgrowingonlylinearly,byapproximately

2%ayear.Therisingglobalcomputeenergyisdrivenby

evergrowingdemandsforcomputation(Figure8b)andthis

isinspiteofthefactthatthechip-levelenergyperone-bit

transitionincomputeprocessorunits(e.g.CPU,GPU,FPGA)

hasbeendecreasingoverlast40years(asmanifestedbythe

Moore’slaw),andis~10aJor10-17Jincurrentprocessors.

However,thedemandforcomputationgrowthisoutpacing

theprogressrealizedbyMoore’slaw.Inaddition,Moore’s

lawiscurrentlyslowingdownasdevicescalingisapproaching

fundamentalphysicallimits.Iftheexponentialgrowthin

computeenergyisleftunchecked,marketdynamicswilllimit

thegrowthofthecomputationalcapacitywhichwouldcause

aflatteningouttheenergycurve(the‘marketdynamics

limiting’scenarioinFigure8a).Thus,theradicalimprovement

inenergyefficiencyofcomputingisrequiredtoavoidthe

‘limiting’scenario.

Theunderlyingdifficultproblemisbit utilization efficiency in

computation,i.e.thenumberofsinglebittransitionsneeded

toimplementacomputeinstruction.ThecurrentCPUcompute

trajectoryisdescribedbyapowerformula(shownasinletin

Figure9)withanexponentboundedbyp~⅔.Thetheoretical

basisfortheobservedtrajectoryandforthevalueofthe

exponentisnotclearlyunderstoodandthusthetheoretical

basisforcomputationneedstobefurtherdeveloped.Asan

observation,ifitcouldbepossibletoincreasetheexponent

intheformulabyonly~30%,thecomputeefficiencyandthus

energyconsumptionwouldhavea1000,000ximprovement.

Thisisillustratedas“newtrajectories”inFigure9.

Grand Goal #5:

Discovercomputingparadigms/architectureswitha

radicallynew‘computingtrajectory’demonstrating

>1,000,000ximprovementinenergyefficiency.

Changingthetrajectorynotonlyprovidesimmediate

improvementsbutalsoprovidesmanydecadesofbuffer

(asshowninFigure8).Thiswouldbemuchmorecost

effectivethanattemptingtoincreasetheworld’senergy

supplydramatically.

17


[8]M.HilbertandP.Lopez,“Theworld'stechnologicalcapacitytostore,communicate,andcomputeinformation,”Science332(2011)60-65.

Figure8(a):Totalenergyofcomputing:Thesolidyellowlineindicatescontinuingthecurrentcomputingtrajectorywhileimprovingthedeviceenergyperformance.Thedashedyellowlineindicatesa‘marketdynamicslimited’scenariostoppingfurtherincreaseintheworld’scomputingcapacityandresultinginaflatteningouttheenergycurve.Theblueboxindicatesascenariowherearadicallynewcomputingtrajectoryisdiscovered.TheDecadalPlanmodel(yellowline)iscomparedtoindependentdatabydifferentgroups(circleddots):

[1]W.VanHeddeghemetal(UGhent),“TrendsinworldwideICTelectricityconsumptionfrom2007to2012”,ComputerCommunications50(2014)64

[2]IEA(2017),Digitalizationandenergy,IEAPublications,Cedex,Paris

[3]EuropeanCommission(2015),Eco-designpreparatory study on enterprise servers and dataequipment.Luxembourg:PublicationsOfficeoftheEuropeanUnion

[4]E.Masanet,etal(NorthwesternU,LBNL,KoomeyAnalytics),“Recalibratingglobaldatacenterenergy-useestimates”,Science367(2020)984

[5]H.Fuchsetal(LBNL),“Comparingdatasetsofvolumeserverstoilluminatetheirenergyusein datacenters”,EnergyEfficiency13(2020)379

[6]Malmodinetal.(Ericsson,TeliaCompany),“ThefuturecarbonfootprintoftheICTandE&MsectorsProceedingsofthe1stInternationalConference on Information and Communication TechnologiesforSustainabilityETHZurich,February14-16,2013pp.12-20

[7]A.S.G.AndraeandT.Edler(Huawei–Sweden),“Onglobalelectricityusageofcommunicationtechnology:Trendsto2030”,Challenges6(2015)117-157

[8]L.BelkhirandA.Elmeligi(McMasterU,Canada),“AssessingICTglobalemissionsfootprint:Trendsto2040&recommendations”,J.CleanerProduction177(2018)448

Figure8(b):World’stechnologicalinstalledcapacitytocomputeinformation,inZIPS,for2010-2050.Thesolidyellowlineindicatesthecurrenttrend(basedonresearchbyHilbertandLopez4).Thedashedyellowlineindicatesa‘marketdynamicslimited’scenariostoppingfurtherincreaseintheworld’scomputingcapacityduetolimitedenergyenvelope.Theblueboxindicatesascenariowherearadicallynewcomputingtrajectoryisdiscovered.

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Call for ActionRevolutionarychangestocomputingwillberequiredsoon.

Computationalloadscontinuetogrowexponentiallyas

evidencedbythegrowthin“artificialintelligence”(AI)

applicationsandtrainingdemands.Newapproachesto

computingsuchasin-memorycompute,specialpurpose

computeengines,differentAIplatforms,braininspired/

neuromorphiccomputation,quantumcomputing,orother

solutionswillbenecessaryandwillneedtobecombined

inaheterogeneousmanner.Thescopeofpotential

heterogeneouscomputingarchitecturesaredescribedina

recentNationalScienceandTechnologyCouncil(NSTC)report

ontheFutureofComputing.9Thisresearchwillrequire

across-disciplinary,cross-functionalapproachtorealize

commerciallyviableandmanufacturablesolutionswithmulti-

decadelongevitytoreplacethemainstreamdigitalapproach.

Thisdocumentisintendedtostimulatecollaborativeresearch

'frommaterialstoarchitectureandalgorithms'toestablish

revolutionaryparadigmsthatsupportfutureenergy-efficient

computingforthevastrangeoffuturedatatypes,workloads

andapplications.Foradditionalbackground,seetheDOE

OfficeofScience,BasicResearchNeedsforMicroelectronics

workshopreport.10

[9]https://www.nitrd.gov/pubs/National-Strategic-Computing-Initiative-Update-2019.pdf

[10]https://science.osti.gov/-/media/bes/pdf/reports/2019/BRN_Microelectronics_rpt.pdf


Figure9:ThecurrentCPUcomputetrajectory

Invest $750M annually throughout this decade to alter the compute trajectory. Selected priority research themes are

outlined below.11

Shannonframeworkforcomputation

High-dimensionalrepresentation

AIprocessors:“Cambrian Explosion” needs to happen!

DecouplethecomputepowerfromenergyconsumptioninQuantumComputers


Turing Shannon Approximate computing

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