Interim and Long-term Approaches for Assessing Wind’s Contribution to Capacity Adequacy PNW...

Interim and Long-term Approaches for Assessing

Wind’s Contribution to Capacity Adequacy

PNW Resource Adequacy PNW Resource Adequacy Steering Committee MeetingSteering Committee Meeting

July 21, 2008July 21, 2008

July 21, 2008 PNW Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting 2

WIAP Action 1 - Wind Capacity Value

Phase I: By July 2007, the Northwest Resource Adequacy Forum should reassess its 15 percent pilot sustained wind capacity value using currently available data on wind plant operation during periods of peak load.

Phase II: In 2008, the NWRA Forum should further refine the sustained peaking capacity value of wind power using the improved wind resource data set of Action 3 and other available data.


PHASE I: Interim Wind Capacity Value

• Council 2011 and 2013 Resource Adequacy Assessments– Wind Capacity Contribution to Resource

Adequacy equated to 5% installed capacity– Placeholder value– Supported by BPA’s wind capacity

analyses in the BPA control area


PHASE II: Long-term Plan to develop Wind Capacity Value

• Need sufficient years of hourly wind generation by wind site for GENESYS to perform Monte Carlo picks

• Ideally would like backcast wind generation simulation to ascertain performance of wind over historical cold snaps/heat waves


LONG-TERM OPTIONSSynthetic Data

• Assumes recent years of wind generation are representative of long-term history

• Use statistics from actual data to create synthetic wind

data • Advantage = this data set

can be created now

Backcast Simulation• Need clean Anemometer

Data for several decades– Stable location, altitude, or

way to adjust data

– On-site data preferable

• Need good Correlations between anemometer data and actual wind generation– Consider wind speed,

direction, lag time

• Allows analyses of historical cold snaps/heat waves


OPTION 1: Synthetic Data• Investigate long-term anemometer data

to test whether recent record of actual wind generation is typical of long-term record

• If so, use Synthetic Data

• If not, may still need to use Synthetic Data until credible Backcast Simulation is complete


OPTION 2: Backcast Simulation

• Results from BorisMetrics Contract provide starting point for more detailed analyses

• BorisMetrics Contract Purpose:− Evaluate Wind Generation that would have

been available to meet peak loads during historical cold snaps/heat waves

− Develop Backcast simulation of Hourly Wind Generation as input to the GENESYS Loss of Load Probability model


Borismetrics Work Identified Issues

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Pro

bab

ilit

y o

f O

ccu

ran

ce

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

Capacity Midpoint

Simulated Backcast East Gorge% NameplateHourly Data From 1/44 - 1/06

• Most frequent capacity factor is 15% of nameplate rather than 0%, as shown by the BPA Wind Capacity Analyses

• Was Gorge windier in the past, or is there a problem with the simulation?• Case of the missing zeros:

− "dummy" or surrogate variables to allow for generation facilities to be shut down for maintenance or other reasons.

− Problem identified: 40% of time when wind was blowing, there was zero wind generation.

Distribution of All Generation Data East Gorge Synthetic DataActual Boris Data

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 101

% of 100

% o

f to

tal

Mode is Zero, Over 4% is at zero

1/

1/ Probability of occurrence should be divided by 10


Borismetrics Work Identified Issues• Case of missing zeros

– Example: East Gorge Generation Dec 2006– Why is there so little generation when the wind is blowing?


Borismetrics Work Identified Issues• Can a unique function calculating generation based

on wind speed be determined?


Borismetrics Work Identified Issues• Pendleton Anemometer Data not Clean

Pendleton Ave Annual Anemometer DataHeight, reading method, and meter location are noted

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Year

Ave

An

nu

al W

ind

Sp

eed

(m

ph

)

37' manualT-107 bldg

53' manterminal bldg

20' manualterminal bldg

20' automaticterminal bldg

30' automaticterminal bldg


Next Steps• Form Technical Wind Assessment Team to:

– Investigate seasonal/annual variability of wind to determine if Synthetic Data Option is workable

– Investigate whether better Correlations are achievable using on-site wind anemometer data

• Check whether anemometer data is clean and of sufficient length

• If height of anemometer readings has varied; can adjustments be made to data?

• Is there sufficient anemometer and generation data to create credible backcast simulations?

Interim and Long-term Approaches for Assessing Wind’s Contribution to Capacity Adequacy PNW...

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