Intergovernmental Oceanographic

Commission of UNESCO

Thorkild Aarup - Stefano Belfiore

IOC Secretariat

Regional Workshop on Disaster Risk

Reduction and Climate Change

“Challenges and Future Actions”

Cairo, 21-23 November 2009

Founded in connection with the International Indian Ocean

Expedition in 1960 as an UN body with functional autonomy

the IOC since then has worked to promote international

cooperation in marine research and protection.

• Monitoring the ocean and facilitating data exhange through

the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)

• Developing tsunami and other sea level-related warning

systems in vulnerable regions

• Building capacities in marine sciences and coastal planning

and adaptation

One planet, one ocean

Intergovernmental

Oceanographic Commission

(IOC) of UNESCO

UNESCO and climate change

Climate knowledge:

science, assessment,

monitoring and early

warning:

• WMO and UNESCO

convenors

UNESCO Plan of Action

on Climate Change

• Building and

maintaining the climate

change knowledge

base

• Promoting mitigation

and adaptation to

climate change

• Moving towards a

climate neutral

UNESCO

Global Ocean Observing System

GOOS is a series of observation and monitoring

programmes designed to:

• Monitor, understand and predict weather and climate

• Describe and forecast the state of the ocean,

including living resources

• Improve management of marine and coastal

ecosystems and resources

• Mitigate damage from natural hazards and pollution

• Protect life and property on coasts and at sea

• Enable scientific research

Implementation agents: GOOS

Regional Alliances

1st GOOS Regional Forum, Athens, Greece, 2002

2nd GRA Forum, Nadi, Fiji, 2004

3rd GRA Forum, Cape Town, S. Africa, 2006

4th GRA Forum, Guayaquil, Ecuador, 2008

SAON

SOOS

The Global Sea Level Sea Level Observing System

Core Network

Sea Level Station Monitoring Facility

Alexandria

The IOC has successfully coordinated the Pacific Tsunami

Warning System (PTWS) since 1965. In the aftermath of the

Sumatra tsunami on December 26, 2004, the IOC received the

mandate to assist all Member States in establishing three

more tsunami and other ocean related hazards EWS.

IOTWS

CARIBE-EWS

NEAMTWS

(NE Atlantic,

Mediterranean

and connected

seas)

IOC Coordination of Tsunami Warning Systems

Tsunamis in the NEAM zone Stefano Tinti

Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the

North Eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected Seas (ICG/NEAMTWS)

Pacific Ocean

73%

Indian Ocean

5%

Caribbean Sea and

Atlantic Ocean

6%

Mediterranean Sea

14%

Black Sea

2%

Regional Distribution of tsunamis 1650 BC to A.D 2008

~ 1100 events

Elevation maxima

Elevation minima

Stefano Tinti

End-to-End Tsunami Warning System

b

Seismology /

GPSSea Level

Simulation/

Modelling

RTWC

NTWC

Data collection

Data processing

Quality control

Network Management

Tsunami Watch

Network supervision

Focal Points

Tsunami Warning

All

Data

National Data Centers

Redundant Redundant

RTWC RTWC

NTWC NTWC

TWS ARCHITECTURE

Virtual seismic network for NEAMTWS for RTWCs

Existing RT station

Existing dial-up station

Existing off-line station

Non-public RT station

Required RT station

Seismic network of the ITWS

Coastal sea-level network of the ITWS

Status of TNCs and TWFPs

RTWCs

Centre Core coverage 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

IM (PT)Portugal, North-

eastern Atlantic

CEA (FR) France, Western

Mediterranean

DPC (IT) Italy, Adriatic Sea,

Malta, Libya, Tunisia

NOA (GR) Greece, Aegean Sea

KOERI (TK)

Turkey, Eastern

Mediterranean,

Black Sea

NTWC RTWCGFZ acting as back-up and data centre

Coastal flooding and erosion

Changes in mean sea level result in

changes in the frequency of flooding events

For San Francisco, a 1-in-100 year flooding event

has become a 1-in-10 year event!Courtesy of John Hunter, CSIRO Hobart

Coastal inundation hazards

Hazard Tsunami Storm surge Wind-driven

waves

Sea level

rise

Coastal

erosion

Frequency Decades to

centuries

Annual to

decadal

Annual to

decadal

Ongoing but

accelerating

Ongoing but

accelerating

Magnitude

(run-up)

From cm to

meters

1-2 meters or

more

1-2 meters or

more

Average

+0.5-1.7 cm

Several m/yr

Duration Hours to 1

day

Few hours to

few days

Hours to

many days

Ongoing Ongoing

Impact Inundation

and drainage

surges

Single event

inundation

Multiple

localized

inundations

Progressive

sea level rise

Progressive

Area Local run-up Hydrological

modelling

Terrain

modelling

Terrain

modelling

Long-term

trends

Warning Minutes to

hours

12 hours to 2

days

1-3 days Decades Decades

IOC

programme

TSU JCOMM JCOMM GLOSS ICAM

Coastal inundation end-to-end systems C

oas

tal

Flo

odin

g

Climate Change

Tsunamis

Storm Surges

Extreme Waves

Sea

Lev

el

Ob

servati

on

s

Co

ast

al B

ath

ym

etry

an

d i

nn

un

da

tion

Mo

del

lin

g

Sei

smic

Obs

Da

ta t

ran

smis

iso

n o

f

ob

serv

ati

on

s in

rea

l ti

me

Dis

sim

ina

tio

n o

f

wa

tch

& w

arn

ing

s

Wa

ve

pro

pa

ga

tio

n

mo

del

lin

g

ICZ

M/I

CA

M

Pla

nn

ing

Ad

ap

tati

on

Adaptation to climate and coastal

change

Objectives

• Identification of

vulnerable sites

• Implementation of

pilot projects in

adaptation

• National and

regional adaptation

strategies

Cape Verde, Gambia,

Guinea-Bissau,

Mauritania, Senegal

UNDP & IOC

$4 million (2008-2011)

CONTENT OF THE

GUIDELINES

The production of the guidelines has

been facilitated with the generous

support of the NOAA, the Government of

Flanders and the WMO.

http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0018/001832/183253e.pdf

THE ICAM CONTEXT

THE HAZARDS DESCRIBED

Rapid-onset hazards

Tsunami

Storm surge

Extreme wind-forced

waves

Cumulative, progressive

or “creeping” hazards

Long-term sea-level rise

Coastal erosion

IDENTIFYING AND QUANTIFYING THE HAZARDS

Define the geographical limits of the coastal management area.

Examine the historical records of coastal hazard impact events and shoreline change, also

the regional and ocean-wide seismic records.

Access information on hazard origins and propagation patterns, local, regional and far-field.

Acquire and compile data on nearshore bathymetry and coastal

topography.

Determine the spatial parameters of hazard impact – the exposure

(e.g., by modelling or post-impact observation).

Determine probabilities for hazard scenarios.

Display exposure and probability results as hazard maps.

Convey results of hazard assessment to risk and emergency

managers.

MEASURING VULNERABILITY

This section aims to guide the determination of the

social, physical, economic and environmental

vulnerabilities of coastal communities who may be

affected by the possible impacts of inundation. It

identifies the data requirements that are

appropriate to the scale the management unit and

the specific thematic dimension of vulnerability. It

describes how these data may be gathered then

processed to provide vulnerability levels for defined

inundation scenarios.

Procedures for vulnerability assessment in

respect of natural hazards are documented in

publications such as those of ISDR. While many

aspects of the vulnerability of coastal communities

to coastal hazards are common to community

vulnerability to natural hazards in general, the

section highlights consequences of hazard

impacts of particular relevance to coastal areas.

TRANSFER: Alexandria case study

•Vulnerability assessment of

coastal population based on

local statistics and survey data

(UNU-EHS) and the

assessment of physical fragility

via high-resolution earth

observation data (< = 1m)(EC-

JRC)

•Combination of satellite

imagery data and socio-

economic data based on local

statistics and survey conditions

within a city

Partners: EC/JRC, University of

Bologna, University of Alexandria,

National Authority for Remote

Sensing and Space Sciences

(NARSS)

ASSESSING THE RISK

This section provides guidance

in determining the likelihood of

specified loss and damage to a

coastal community, including its

population, economy,

supporting environment and its

institutional structures caused

by the impacts of the coastal

hazards.

ENHANCING AWARENESS AND PREPAREDNESS

Identify an appropriate early warning framework.

Raise awareness of the risk at all levels in the community.

Establish the key operational requirements of the early

warning system.

Prepare all levels of the community for emergency responses.

• MITIGATING THE RISK

Procedures and information that policy makers

should consider within ICAM when developing

a risk mitigation strategy for the coastal

hazards.

Summary of socio-

economic,

environmental and

institutional/political

trade-offs of various

hazard management

approaches.

www.ioc-unesco.org

Plan of action for the 50th Anniversary

Expo 2010

Shanghai

Exhibition with

UNESCO on “Safety

of settlements at risk

from the effects of

marine natural

hazards”

Expo 2012

Yeosu

2nd International

Symposium on the

“Effects of climate

change on the World’s

ocean”

JCOMM-IV

The IOC contribution

•Sustained efforts in

ocean and coastal

observations underpinning

climate monitoring and

adaptation

•Multi-hazard approach in

addressing coastal

hazards and extreme

events

Manuals and guides