Intergenerational Transfers, Aging, and the Economy

NNational ational TTransfer ransfer AAccountsccounts

Intergenerational Intergenerational Transfers, Aging, and Transfers, Aging, and the Economythe Economy

May 22, 2009May 22, 2009

Andrew MasonAndrew MasonUniversity of Hawaii at ManoaUniversity of Hawaii at Manoa

& East-West Center& East-West Center

National Transfer Accounts

Three Features of our Societies Three Features of our Societies Motivate the NTA ProjectMotivate the NTA Project► Changes in population age structure Changes in population age structure

Large national, regional, and global changesLarge national, regional, and global changes► Economic lifecycle Economic lifecycle

Extended periods of dependencyExtended periods of dependency Many other aspects of economic behavior are Many other aspects of economic behavior are

age dependentage dependent► Complex and varied intergenerational Complex and varied intergenerational

economic systemseconomic systems Families, firms, markets, the state, and civil Families, firms, markets, the state, and civil

society all play a role. society all play a role. Important implications for poverty, economic Important implications for poverty, economic

growth, and generational equity.growth, and generational equity.


Goals of the NTA ProjectGoals of the NTA Project

► Develop a system of economic accounts that Develop a system of economic accounts that quantifies intergenerational flows in a quantifies intergenerational flows in a comprehensive fashion. comprehensive fashion.

► Estimate the accounts with historical depth Estimate the accounts with historical depth for economies with different cultures, levels of for economies with different cultures, levels of development, economic systems and policies. development, economic systems and policies.

► Analyze and explainAnalyze and explain variation in the economic lifecycle and the variation in the economic lifecycle and the

intergenerational economic systems,intergenerational economic systems, macroeconomic effects of population aging,macroeconomic effects of population aging,

► Improve policy related to pensions, health Improve policy related to pensions, health care, education, and fertility.care, education, and fertility.


OutlineOutline

I.I. Population Age StructurePopulation Age Structure

II.II. Economic LifecycleEconomic Lifecycle

III.III. Flows and Lifecycle WealthFlows and Lifecycle Wealth

IV.IV. NTA and Intergenerational SystemsNTA and Intergenerational Systems


I. Population Age StructureI. Population Age Structure

►Population age structure is a feature of Population age structure is a feature of the demographic transitionthe demographic transition Very young populations due to high Very young populations due to high

fertility decline in infant and child fertility decline in infant and child mortality mortality

Large working-age share as large cohorts Large working-age share as large cohorts of children reached adulthoodof children reached adulthood

Old populations as old-age survival Old populations as old-age survival increases and fertility reaches low levels.increases and fertility reaches low levels.


-10

0

10

20

30

40

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Percent <25

Per

cen

t 60

+

1950

25-59 more than half

Percentage of population under age 25 and 60+; bubble proportional to population.

Source: UN World Population Prospects, 2006.

Younger


-10

0

10

20

30

40

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Percent <25

Per

cen

t 60

+


1960


-10

0

10

20

30

40

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Percent <25

Per

cen

t 60

+


1970

Large birth cohorts become workers


-10

0

10

20

30

40

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Percent <25

Per

cen

t 60

+


1980


-10

0

10

20

30

40

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Percent <25

Per

cen

t 60

+


1990


-10

0

10

20

30

40

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Percent <25

Per

cen

t 60

+


2000Pop Aging


-10

0

10

20

30

40

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Percent <25

Per

cen

t 60

+


2010


0

10

20

30

40

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Percent <25

Per

cen

t 60

+


2020


0

10

20

30

40

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Percent <25

Per

cen

t 60

+


2030


0

10

20

30

40

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Percent <25

Per

cen

t 60

+


2040


0

10

20

30

40

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Percent <25

Per

cen

t 60

+


2050Working ages declined


II. The Economic LifecycleII. The Economic LifecyclePer Capita Consumption and ProductionPer Capita Consumption and Production

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90

Rel

ativ

e to

lab

or

inco

me(

30-4

9)

Consumption

Labor Income

Note: Based on estimates for Costa Rica, Indonesia, Taiwan, and Thailand.


Population Age Distribution, 2005

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Pro

po

rtio

n

China

Kenya

Germany

3 Population Age 3 Population Age DistributionsDistributions


Aggregate LifecycleAggregate LifecycleGermany, Aggregate C and Yl

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

0.016

0.018

0.02

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Labor Income

Consumption

Kenya, Aggregate C and Yl

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

0.016

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Labor Income

Consumption

• Based on per capita profile for developing countries weighted by UN estimates of 2005 age structure.

• Two features are of interest

• Overall dependency: Total difference between labor income and consumption.

• Direction of IG flows: Do flows to children or the elderly dominate?


Lifecycle Deficit: Kenya 2005Lifecycle Deficit: Kenya 2005

• Intergenerational flows are heavily downward.

• Kenya’s LC surplus is much smaller than its deficit; extra consumption could be funded from asset income (or net transfers from the rest of the world). Impact on saving.

• Alternatively people could work more or consume less than in the standard profile. Difficult to balance without spending less on children. Impact on human capital.

-0.006

-0.004

-0.002

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Kenya


Lifecycle Deficit: Germany 2005Lifecycle Deficit: Germany 2005

-0.01

-0.008

-0.006

-0.004

-0.002

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Germany

• Intergenerational flows in both directions are important.

• Germany’s surplus is slightly smaller than its deficit; extra consumption must be funded from asset income (or net transfers from the rest of the world).

• Alternatively people could work more or consume less than in the standard profile.

• Note that results will differ when per capita lifecycle for Germany is used.


-0.006

-0.004

-0.002

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Germany 2050

Future Lifecycle Deficit: Future Lifecycle Deficit: Germany 2050Germany 2050

• Intergenerational flows to elderly have increased relative to flows to the young.

• Germany’s overall deficit has grown to 10% of labor income. Almost as large as Kenya’s 2005 deficit.

• How this will influence the German economy and other aging societies will depend on the systems used to reallocate resources across generations.


III. Flows and Lifecycle III. Flows and Lifecycle WealthWealth► Understanding the relationship between flows Understanding the relationship between flows

and wealth is very importantand wealth is very important Generational equity: What is the value of the IG Generational equity: What is the value of the IG

transfers we will receive from future generations as transfers we will receive from future generations as compared with the value of the IG transfers we will compared with the value of the IG transfers we will give to future generations?give to future generations?

Economic growth: One form of wealth is capital Economic growth: One form of wealth is capital which is a central element in economic growth. which is a central element in economic growth.

Fiscal sustainability: Implicit debt, a negative form Fiscal sustainability: Implicit debt, a negative form of wealth, is used to assess the sustainability of of wealth, is used to assess the sustainability of transfer programs (Generational Accounts, for transfer programs (Generational Accounts, for example).example).


Flows and Lifecycle Wealth: Flows and Lifecycle Wealth: A simple thought experimentA simple thought experiment► Your granary receives 10 Your granary receives 10

metric tons of grain metric tons of grain every Fall.every Fall.

► You sell all of the grain, You sell all of the grain, at a constant rate, during at a constant rate, during the subsequent 12 the subsequent 12 months.months.

► What is the average What is the average stock of grain (wealth)?stock of grain (wealth)?

Answer: Annual flow X (Date sold – Date purchased) 10 tons/year X ½ year = 5 tons.

Source: Wikipedia.


Flows and Lifecycle Wealth in Flows and Lifecycle Wealth in NTANTA►Under very special circumstances Under very special circumstances

(golden rule growth), wealth for any (golden rule growth), wealth for any intergenerational flow is given by: intergenerational flow is given by:

►Wealth = Annual flow X (Mean age of Wealth = Annual flow X (Mean age of inflow – mean age of outflow)inflow – mean age of outflow)

►Form of wealth depends on IG systemForm of wealth depends on IG system Saving leads to real assetsSaving leads to real assets Relying on transfers leads to transfer Relying on transfers leads to transfer

wealth (the present value of net transfers)wealth (the present value of net transfers)


-0.015

-0.01

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

10.6 41.9 79.1

Flows and Lifecycle Wealth: Flows and Lifecycle Wealth: Golden RuleGolden Rule

Note. Flows as a share of aggregate labor income.

Transfers to elderly:Annual transfer: 0.235 times aggregate labor incomeMean age of inflow: 79.1 yearsMean age of outflow: 41.9 years Difference 37.2 years

Old-age transfer wealth: 0.235 X 37.2 = 8.8 times aggregate labor income.Note: Assumes that upward and downward outflows have identical mean ages.


-0.015

-0.01

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

10.6 41.9 79.1

Flows and Lifecycle Wealth: Flows and Lifecycle Wealth: Golden RuleGolden Rule

Transfers to children:Annual transfer: 0.130 times aggregate labor incomeMean age of inflow: 10.6 yearsMean age of outflow: 41.9 years Difference -31.3 years

Child transfer wealth: 0.130 X -31.3 = -4.1 times aggregate labor income.Note: Assumes that upward and downward outflows have identical mean ages.

Note. Flows as a share of aggregate labor income.


Observations re Lifecycle Observations re Lifecycle WealthWealth► Lifecycle pension wealth includes Lifecycle pension wealth includes

Assets accumulated to fund retirement Assets accumulated to fund retirement Value of net transfers from future generations on which retirees Value of net transfers from future generations on which retirees

will relywill rely Bequests are treated separately.Bequests are treated separately.

► Child lifecycle wealth (debt) is value of net transfers received Child lifecycle wealth (debt) is value of net transfers received by future generations during their childhoodby future generations during their childhood

► Total transfer wealth provides a comprehensive measure of Total transfer wealth provides a comprehensive measure of the generational stance of transfers. Neutral if pension and the generational stance of transfers. Neutral if pension and child transfer wealth are equal and of opposite sign. child transfer wealth are equal and of opposite sign.

► In Germany example, neutrality realized if LC pension wealth In Germany example, neutrality realized if LC pension wealth consists of 4.09 transfer wealth and 4.87 capital. This level of consists of 4.09 transfer wealth and 4.87 capital. This level of capital would be insufficient to achieve golden rule growth. capital would be insufficient to achieve golden rule growth. Bequests can resolve this problem – capital not used to Bequests can resolve this problem – capital not used to finance lifecycle needs and is transferred from one generation finance lifecycle needs and is transferred from one generation to the next. to the next.


IG Flows and WealthIG Flows and Wealth

► Calculation of transfer wealth in more Calculation of transfer wealth in more realistic cases requires projection, forecast, realistic cases requires projection, forecast, or simulation of public and private transfers.or simulation of public and private transfers.

► Simulation studies consistently show that Simulation studies consistently show that the demand for wealth increases as the demand for wealth increases as populations age. populations age.

► However, the effect on assets (capital) is However, the effect on assets (capital) is sensitive to policy towards old-age support sensitive to policy towards old-age support systems. systems.


Simulation of Lifecycle Pension Simulation of Lifecycle Pension Wealth and Assets, China, 1960-Wealth and Assets, China, 1960-20502050

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

We

alt

h r

ela

tiv

e t

o la

bo

r in

co

me

Pension wealth (high)

Assets (high)

Pension wealth (low)

Assets (low)

China’s population and economic lifecycle for developing world, technological change of 2% per annum, open economy. High scenario: two-thirds of lifecycle pension wealth consists of assets. Low scenario: one-third of lifecycle wealth consists of assets. For a detailed description of the simulation model see Mason and Lee (2007).


Implications of Age Structure Implications of Age Structure and Economic Lifecycleand Economic Lifecycle► Changes in age structure have a direct effect on Changes in age structure have a direct effect on

standards of living by influencing the share of the standards of living by influencing the share of the population in the working ages – first demographic population in the working ages – first demographic dividend.dividend.

► Population aging leads to a decline in the share of Population aging leads to a decline in the share of the working ages, adversely affecting standards of the working ages, adversely affecting standards of living.living.

► However, population aging also leads to an increase However, population aging also leads to an increase in the demand for lifecycle wealth. If this is met in the demand for lifecycle wealth. If this is met through increased saving and a rise in K/GDP, the through increased saving and a rise in K/GDP, the result may be permanently higher standards of result may be permanently higher standards of living – a second demographic dividend.living – a second demographic dividend.

► Critical issue – old age support system.Critical issue – old age support system.


IV. National Transfer Accounts: A IV. National Transfer Accounts: A System for Measuring Intergenerational System for Measuring Intergenerational FlowsFlows► NTAs provide aggregate measures of the NTAs provide aggregate measures of the

economic lifecycle and intergenerational economic lifecycle and intergenerational economic flows economic flows

► Comprehensive approach:Comprehensive approach: All mechanisms for shifting resources from one age All mechanisms for shifting resources from one age

group to another are incorporated into the group to another are incorporated into the accounts. accounts.

Both public and private institutions are Both public and private institutions are incorporated. The role of the family is emphasized. incorporated. The role of the family is emphasized.

► NTA is consistent with and complementary to NTA is consistent with and complementary to NIPA and GA.NIPA and GA.


Important Features of NTAImportant Features of NTA

► NTA consists of 4 accountsNTA consists of 4 accounts Flow AccountFlow Account measures the economic flows to and measures the economic flows to and

from each age group during a calendar or fiscal from each age group during a calendar or fiscal year.year.

Asset Transfer Account Asset Transfer Account measures bequests and measures bequests and other asset transfers.other asset transfers.

Wealth Revaluation AccountWealth Revaluation Account measures the measures the changes in wealth due to changes in asset prices, changes in wealth due to changes in asset prices, interest rates, and public policy.interest rates, and public policy.

Wealth AccountWealth Account measures the wealth associated measures the wealth associated with each flow – assets and transfer wealth.with each flow – assets and transfer wealth.

► Emphasis to date is on the flow account. Emphasis to date is on the flow account. ► Flow account is governed by the flow identity.Flow account is governed by the flow identity.


The Flow Account IdentityThe Flow Account Identity

► InflowsInflows Labor IncomeLabor Income Asset IncomeAsset Income Transfer InflowsTransfer Inflows

► OutflowsOutflows ConsumptionConsumption SavingSaving Transfer OutflowsTransfer Outflows

Inflows Outflows

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )l aY a Y a a C a S a a

Lifecycle Deficit Asset-based Reallocations Net Transfers

Age Reallocations

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )l aC a Y a Y a S a a a


A Classification of NTA Reallocations.A Classification of NTA Reallocations.

Asset-based Age ReallocationsAsset-based Age Reallocations

TransfersTransfers

Capital and Other Capital and Other Non-Financial Non-Financial

AssetsAssets CreditCredit

PublicPublicPublic infrastructurePublic infrastructurePublic land and sub-Public land and sub-soil mineralssoil minerals

Public debtPublic debtStudent Student loansloans

MoneyMoney

Public educationPublic educationPublic health carePublic health care

Unfunded pension plansUnfunded pension plans

PrivatePrivate

HousingHousingConsumer durablesConsumer durables

Factories, FarmsFactories, FarmsPrivate land and Private land and sub-soil mineralssub-soil minerals

InventoriesInventories

Consumer Consumer creditcredit

Familial support of Familial support of children and parentschildren and parents

BequestsBequestsCharitable contributionsCharitable contributions

Source: Mason, Lee et al. (forthcoming); adapted from Lee (1994).Source: Mason, Lee et al. (forthcoming); adapted from Lee (1994).


The Elderly and Upward The Elderly and Upward Intergenerational FlowsIntergenerational Flows►Three important sourcesThree important sources

Private (familial) transfersPrivate (familial) transfers Public transfersPublic transfers Asset-based reallocations (saving)Asset-based reallocations (saving)

►An Exercise: Locate your country and An Exercise: Locate your country and explain why. (Handout Old-age IG explain why. (Handout Old-age IG Flow Chart)Flow Chart)


Old-Age IG Flow SystemsOld-Age IG Flow Systems

Saving

Public Transfers

FamilialTransfers


Old-age Reallocation System, Selected Countries.

0

50

75

100

75

75

50

50

25

25

0

0

25

100

100

Asset-based (%)

Public transfers (%)

Family Transfers (%)

US

Thailand

Costa Rica

JapanTaiw an

Korea

Familial transfers equally important in Thailand, Korea, and Taiwan (36-

40%). Net familial transfers near zero in US, CR, and J. Large

public transfers in CR and J. More

reliance on assets in CR & US.

Net public transfers to elderly are zero in

Thailand; about 25% in Taiwan and Korea.


Old-age Reallocation System, Selected Countries.

0

50

75

100

75

75

50

50

25

25

0

0

25

100

100

Asset-based (%)



US

Thailand

Costa Rica

JapanTaiw an

Korea

Reliance on assets in old-age


Old-age Reallocation System, 65 to 85-year-olds, Taiwan, 2003.

0

50

75

100

75

75

50

50

25

25

0

0

25

100

100

Asset-based (%)



65-year-olds67% assets, 2%

public, 32% private

85-year-olds23% assets, 39%

public, 38% private


Old-age Reallocation System, 75-year-olds, Taiwan, 1977-2003.

0

50

75

100

75

75

50

50

25

25

0

0

25

100

100

Asset-based (%)



1995-2003

1977-1994

Asset-based reallocations and public transfers have increased

over time; familial transfers have declined

precipitously.

NHI began in 1995; net public

transfers increased.


SummarySummary

► Intergenerational flows are largeIntergenerational flows are large►Magnitude and direction of IG flows are Magnitude and direction of IG flows are

changing in unprecedented wayschanging in unprecedented ways► IG systems vary widely and are changingIG systems vary widely and are changing► Important implications for Important implications for

Generational equityGenerational equity Standards of living Standards of living Investment in human and physical capitalInvestment in human and physical capital Fiscal sustainabilityFiscal sustainability


Further ReadingFurther ReadingConceptual FoundationsConceptual FoundationsLee, R. (2003). “Demographic Change, Welfare, and Intergenerational Transfers: A Global Lee, R. (2003). “Demographic Change, Welfare, and Intergenerational Transfers: A Global

Overview.” Overview.” GENUSGENUS LIXLIX(3-4): 43-70.(3-4): 43-70.Lee, R. D. (1994). The Formal Demography of Population Aging, Transfers, and the Economic Lee, R. D. (1994). The Formal Demography of Population Aging, Transfers, and the Economic

Life Cycle. Life Cycle. Demography of AgingDemography of Aging. L. G. Martin and S. H. Preston. Washington, D.C., . L. G. Martin and S. H. Preston. Washington, D.C., National Academy PressNational Academy Press: : 8-49.8-49.

Willis, R. J. (1988). Life cycles, institutions and population growth: A theory of the equilibrium Willis, R. J. (1988). Life cycles, institutions and population growth: A theory of the equilibrium interest rate in an overlapping-generations model. interest rate in an overlapping-generations model. Economics of Changing Age Economics of Changing Age Distributions in Developed CountriesDistributions in Developed Countries. R. D. Lee, W. B. Arthur and G. Rodgers. Oxford, . R. D. Lee, W. B. Arthur and G. Rodgers. Oxford, Oxford University Press. Oxford University Press. 106-38106-38..

Empirical StudiesEmpirical StudiesBloom, D. E. and J. G. Williamson (1998). “Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Bloom, D. E. and J. G. Williamson (1998). “Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in

Emerging Asia.” Emerging Asia.” World Bank Economic ReviewWorld Bank Economic Review 1212(3): 419-56.(3): 419-56.Bloom, D. E. and D. Canning (2001). Cumulative Causality, Economic Growth, and the Bloom, D. E. and D. Canning (2001). Cumulative Causality, Economic Growth, and the

Demographic Transition. Demographic Transition. Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing Worldand Poverty in the Developing World. N. Birdsall, A. C. Kelley and S. W. Sinding. Oxford, . N. Birdsall, A. C. Kelley and S. W. Sinding. Oxford, Oxford University PressOxford University Press: : 165-200.165-200.

Kelley, A. C. and R. M. Schmidt (2007). Evolution of Recent Economic-Demographic Kelley, A. C. and R. M. Schmidt (2007). Evolution of Recent Economic-Demographic Modeling: A Synthesis. Modeling: A Synthesis. Population Change, Labor Markets and Sustainable Growth: Population Change, Labor Markets and Sustainable Growth: Towards a New Economic ParadigmTowards a New Economic Paradigm. A. Mason and M. Yamaguchi. Amsterdam, Elsevier. A. Mason and M. Yamaguchi. Amsterdam, Elsevier: : 5-38.5-38.


Further Reading (Cont)Further Reading (Cont)Simulation StudiesSimulation StudiesCutler, D. M., J. M. Poterba, et al. (1990). “An Aging Society: Opportunity or Cutler, D. M., J. M. Poterba, et al. (1990). “An Aging Society: Opportunity or

Challenge?” Challenge?” Brookings Papers on Economic ActivityBrookings Papers on Economic Activity 1990(1): 1-56. 1990(1): 1-56.Lee, R., A. Mason, et al. (2003). “From Transfers to Individual Lee, R., A. Mason, et al. (2003). “From Transfers to Individual

Responsibility: Implications for Savings and Capital Accumulation in Responsibility: Implications for Savings and Capital Accumulation in Taiwan and the United States.” Taiwan and the United States.” Scandinavian Journal of EconomicsScandinavian Journal of Economics 105105(3): 339-357.(3): 339-357.

Mason, A. and R. Lee (2006). “Reform and support systems for the elderly Mason, A. and R. Lee (2006). “Reform and support systems for the elderly in developing countries: capturing the second demographic dividend.” in developing countries: capturing the second demographic dividend.” GENUSGENUS LXIILXII(2): 11-35.(2): 11-35.

NTA FundamentalsNTA FundamentalsMason, A., R. Lee, et al. (forthcoming). Population Aging and Mason, A., R. Lee, et al. (forthcoming). Population Aging and

Intergenerational Transfers: Introducing Age into National Accounts. Intergenerational Transfers: Introducing Age into National Accounts. Developments in the Economics of AgingDevelopments in the Economics of Aging. D. Wise. Chicago, NBER and . D. Wise. Chicago, NBER and University of Chicago Press.University of Chicago Press.

Lee, R., S.-H. Lee, A. Mason (2008). Charting the Economic Lifecycle. Lee, R., S.-H. Lee, A. Mason (2008). Charting the Economic Lifecycle. Population Aging, Human Capital Accumulation, and Productivity Population Aging, Human Capital Accumulation, and Productivity Growth, a supplement to Population and Development Review 33Growth, a supplement to Population and Development Review 33. A. . A. Prskawetz, D. E. Bloom and W. Lutz. New York, Population CouncilPrskawetz, D. E. Bloom and W. Lutz. New York, Population Council: : 208-208-237.237.

NNational ational TTransfer ransfer AAccountsccounts

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Intergenerational Transfers, Aging, and the Economy

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