Interannual response of fish growth to the 3Interannual response of fish growth to the 3--D global D global NEMURO output with realistic atmospheric forcing. NEMURO output with realistic atmospheric forcing.

Part II: Pacific saury growthPart II: Pacific saury growthShin-ichi Ito FRA, Tohoku Natl. Fish. Res. Inst.Kenny A. Rose Louisiana State Univ.Maki Noguchi-Aita JAMSTEC/FRCGCBerard E. Megrey NOAA, NMFSYasuhiro Yamanaka Hokkaido Univ.Francisco E. Werner Univ. of North CarolinaMichio J. Kishi Hokkaido Univ.

contents1. NEMURO.FISH for saury2. 3D-NEMURO forcing3. PEST auto parameter tuning4. interannual analysis

NEMURO.FISH

Bioenergetics Model for herring and saury

change of weight

[ ]f

z

CALCALPEFSRC

dtWdW

⋅++++−=⋅

)(

E: excretion

C: consumption

R: respiration (loses through metabolism)

F: egestion

P: egg production

S: specific dynamic action(digesting food)

30

35

40

45

130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165

Kuroshio Extension

Oyashio Front

spawning groundin winter

spawning groundin spring & autumn

Mixed water region

Migration

Migration

Feeding groundin summer

Fishing groundin autumn

Life History of Pacific Saury with Oceanographic Features

Modified from Watanabe et al. (1989)

timing of migration

Kuroshiomixed water

region Oyashio

Feb. 115°C

Jun. 15KL<9.9cm 13°C9.9<KL<19.9cm 9°C19.9cm<KL independent

Nov. 15KL<24.0cm 13°C24.0<KL<29.0cm 15.5°C29.0cm<KL 18°C

Oct. 1KL<24.0cm 13°C24.0<KL<29.0cm 15.5°C29.0cm<KL 18°C

defined by KL and temperaturebased on Fukushima (1987)

Kosaka (2000)Ito et al. (2004): 3box modelMukai et al. (submitted):

temperature dependent migration

BeringPWS

WVCIOregon

3D-NEMURO output

Noguchi-Aita et al. (2004)

3D3D--NEMURO forcing & NEMURO forcing & result of NEMURO.FISH result of NEMURO.FISH 3D-NEMURO mixed layer temp.

3D-NEMURO prey densityKuroshio

Mixed water region

Oyashio region

ZSZLZP

saury wet weight

saury cannot grow enough, because prey density is too low in the 3D-NEMURO.

Parameter tuningad-hoc & PEST

applied PEST Software to the saury modelapplied PEST Software to the saury model

merit of the PEST is using PEST with no modification of the model source code.

model

PEST

calculate the error between observations

searchnew parameter

model outputs

new parameter

parameter tuning

saury (150E) pest for phal f's & ac

0

50

100

150

200

0 200 400 600 800

age (date)

wet

wei

ght

WobsWini tWpest+ac

3D-NEMURO has a bias (low zooplankton biomass level).low growth of fishparameter tuning with ad-hoc (manual)parameter tuning with PEST (automated)

obsad-hocPEST

PEST successfully reproduce the saury growth similar to the observation.

Table 1. Original and calibrated parameters; interception for the maximum consumption rate ac and half-saturation constants Kij for the saury bioenergetics model. i denotes fish type (1 for life stage 1, 2 for life stage 2 and 3 for life stage 3-9) and j denotes the prey type (1 for ZS, 2 for ZL and 3 for ZP).

parameters original precalibrated postcalibrated

ac 0.8 0.8 1.254080

K11 0.30 0.10 0.339301

K21 0.30 0.10 0.186160

K22 0.30 0.10 0.292740

K32 0.45 0.30 1.441980

K33 0.45 0.30 0.348197

Cmax

wet weight

ac

prey density

Cmax

K

C

interannual run with PEST tuned parameterinterannual run with PEST tuned parameter

W

KL

CF

Decrease increase1958-60 1967-691978-79 1985-861986-88 1998-991994-951999-2001

distinctive shift

Table 2. Forcing of numerical experiments. The model domains where interannual variations were prescribed as forcing factor are listed. The factors of no notification were fixed to climatologicalvalues. KR, MX, and OY denotes the Kuroshio area, mixed water region and Oyashio area, respectively.

experiment T ZS ZL ZPEX-AL all all all allEX-TAL all - - -EX-ZAL - all all allEX-ALKRKR KR KR KREX-ALMX MX MX MX MXEX-ALOYOY OY OY OYEX-TKR KR - - -EX-TMX MX - - -EX-TOY OY - - -EX-ZKR - KR KR KREX-ZMX - MX MX MXEX-ZOY - OY OY OYEX-ZSAL - all - -EX-ZLAL - - all -EX-ZPAL - - - allEX-ZPKR - - - KREX-ZPMX- - - MXEX-ZPOY - - - OY

sensitivity analysis for forcing

In the model it is quite easy to divide the effect of forcing factors.We performed additional 17 numerical experiments.

EX-AL

EX-TAL

EX-ZAL

Fig. 2.

a)

b)

c)

Temperature effect vszooplankton effect

6 of 8 distinctive shift were clearly reproduced by zooplankton varying case.

Only the 1978-79 and 1986-88 shifts are explained by temperature forcing.

Table 3. Response of saury wet weight in EX-AL, EX-TAL and EX-ZAL. The term "m." means major source for decrease of increase.

period EX-AL EX-TAL EX-ZAL

1958-60 decrease decrease m. decrease

1978-79 decrease m. decrease decrease

1986-88 decrease increase m. decrearse

1994-95 decrease m. decrease decrease

1999-2001 decrease decrease m. decrease

1967-69 increase increase m. increase

1985-86 increase increase m. increase

1998-99 increase increase m. increase

The effects of temperature and zooplankton show same direction except for 1986-88.6 of 8 distinctive shift were clearly reproduced by zooplankton varying case.

EX-AL EX-ALKR

EX-ALMX

EX-ALOY

Fig. 2.

a) d)

e)

f)

If look into the effect of each oceanic domain, the effects of the Oyashio area and mixed water region are important.Especially the effect of the mixed water region is significant.

However, the effect of both domains showed opposite direction in 1986-88, 1999-2001 and 1985-86.

EX-TKR

EX-TMX

EX-TOY

g)

h)

i)

Concerning about the temperature effect, the effect of the Oyashio region was highest.

Although the temperature effect in the mixed water region was secondary important, it showed opposite direction except for 1978-79 and 1994-95.Only in these excepted case the temperature effects became major source for decrease

EX-ZKR

EX-ZMX

EX-ZOY

Fig. 2 continue.

j)

k)

l)

Concerning about zooplankton effects, the effect of the mixed water region was highest.

Although the zooplankton effect in the Oyashio region was secondary important, it showed almost same direction except for 1999-2001 and 1985-86.

Comparisons of effects of zooplankton species showed the importance of ZP (not show).Moreover, the ZP density in the mixed water region is the most effective (not shown).

All

SST All

Zoo All

SST OY

ZP All

ZP MX

For the saury growth, SST in the Oyashio region and ZP in the mixed water region are most important.

Summary1. Parameter tuning with PEST

successfully reproduce the realistic saury growthmore observations are able to improve the model

2. For the saury growth, SST in the Oyashio region and ZP in themixed water region are most important.

However, in the actual ocean, there may be other effects, ex. competitions for prey zooplankton between other pelagic fishes.Especially, for saury, sardine predatory pressure on prey zooplankton is severe problem.

Future Perspectives1. Construct multi-species model of NEMURO.FISH

including sardine effectsPEST parameter tuning

2. Geographical and species comparison

FRA/APN/IAI/GLOBEC/PICES Workshop'Global comparison of sardine, anchovy and other small pelagics – building towards a multi-species model '

Date: 14-17 Nov. 2005

Objectives: Summarize the response of sardine, anchovy and other small pelagic fishes

to the global climate variability and seek effective model approaches to solve the mechanism of synchronicity and anti-synchronicity of them.

Agenda14 (Mon) Review of variability of growth and biomass of sardine and

anchovy in each region.15 (Tue) Review of NEMURO.FISH and other models related to fish

growth and population.16 (Wed) NEMURO.FISH hands on.17 (The) NEMURO.FISH hands on and discussion on future

collaborations

Why the zooplankton shows same direction ?The zooplankton effects in the mixed water region and Oyashioarea showed almost same direction, on the other hand the effectsof temperature showed opposite directions in almost case.

In primary, the zooplankton density, especially ZL and ZP, shows high value after severe winter because of higher nutrient supply.

Therefore, the zooplankton density in the mixed water region and Oyashio area has a tendency to show similar variation.

As a result, the zooplankton effects in both domains showed almost same direction.

Why the temperature effect shows opposite direction ?The temperature effects to saury migration.

If the mixed layer temperature in the Oyashio area is low, the migration to the Oyashio area is delayed but the southward migration to the mixed water region is advanced. As the result, the period of staying in the Oyashio region is shorten and the wet weight of saury decreases.

On the other hand, if the temperature in the mixed water regionis cold, although the southward migration to the Kuroshioregion is advanced, the northward migration to the mixed water region is not changed.

Therefore the response of saury to the temperature in the mixedwater region is not clear compared with that for the temperature in the Oyashio area.

Temperature & zooplankton effectsThe basic effect of temperature in the Oyashio region has two opposite character.

One is positive effect to elongate the staying time in the Oyashioregion; when the temperature in the Oyashio region is high, the saury can stay in there longer and grow up.

The other is negative effect through the primarily and secondary production; when the temperature in the Oyashioregion is high, the zooplankton density decreases and the saury cannot grow fast.

In this sense, the wide migration of saruy may be one of the strategy to keep their growth stable.