Interannual Deforestation Dynamics in Southern Madagascar Humid

Forests 2000 to 2005

Jan Dempewolf(1), Ruth DeFries(1), Sandy Andelman(2), Rasolohery Andriambolantsoa(3), Marc Steininger(2)

(1) Department of Geography, University of Maryland, United States(2) Conservation International, Washington DC, United States

(3) Conservation International, Antananarivo, Madagascar

National Workshop on Assessing Climate Change Impacts to Madagascar’s Biodiversity & Livelihoods with Recommendations for Adaptation

January 28th-31st, 2008, Antananarivo, Madagascar

Deforestation Detected by High Resolution Landsat Images 2000-2005

Data SourcesSatellite image: Earthsat, Landsat 7 ETM, Path 159, Row 075, Acquisition Date 2001-04-29; Band combination R-G-B = ETM Bands 5-4-3Deforested Areas (yellow polygons): Conservation International Center of Applied Biodiversity Science (CI-CABS) and partners, (Harper, et al. 2008; Steininger, et al. 2008; USAID)

Global-Scale Deforestation Monitoring

MODISon AQUA

MODIS on TERRA

Daily MODIS Image

Image source: Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL/NASA )

http://onearth.jpl.nasa.gov/

Image source: NASA

Image source: NASA

Yearly MODIS Composite Images

MODIS Composite Image 2005

Colors represent amount of green vegetation(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)

Yearly MODIS Composite Images

MODIS Composite Image 2005

Colors represent amount of green vegetation(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)

Yearly MODIS Composite Images

MODIS Composite Image 2005

Colors represent amount of green vegetation(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

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Year

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VI D

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om

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Annual Deforestation Rates

Area Deforested Annually in

Humid Tropical Forests of Southern Madagascar

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Are

a [h

a]

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2000

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Annual Deforestation Rates

Multivariate ENSO Index Anomaly (MEI): Deviation of average value from April to June from the long-term average since 1950.

Area Deforested Annually in

Humid Tropical Forests of Southern Madagascar

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

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a [h

a]

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2000

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6000

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Mul

tivar

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Annual Deforestation Rates

Multivariate ENSO Index Anomaly (MEI): Deviation of average value from April to June from the long-term average since 1950.

Precipitation: Minimum value of the 3-month moving average of monthly precipitation (Data source: Famine Early Warning System FEWS).

Area Deforested Annually in

Humid Tropical Forests of Southern Madagascar

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a [h

a]

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8000

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tivar

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Precipitation

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

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n [m

m]

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Conclusions

• Possible link between the El Niño phenomenon and rates of deforestation

• Hypothesis: Decreased precipitation during El Niño years facilitates destruction of forest through fire, accidentally or opportunistically

• Some global climate models suggest increased future El Niño frequency: increased threat to protected areas and biodiversity through deforestation

• Future work:

• Test hypotheses for mechanisms linking El Niño and deforestation

• Validation of results using field and high resolution satellite images

• Determine regions most sensitive to both El Niño – deforestation link and shifting species ranges to focus conservation efforts.

Things To Do

• Increase attention and focus resources on deforestation during El Niño years

• Provide incentives to locals maintain forest cover

Knowledge Gaps• Which are the regions a) most sensitive to increased deforestation and b) most important to maintain forest connectivity to accommodate shifting species ranges

Thank You!

Merci beaucoup !