Interagency Study on Cocaine Trafficking & Consumption in Brazil

Presented to Embassy Country Team

19 August 2002

Background• Study requested by Linear

Committee and US Interdiction Committee fall 1999.

• Over one hundred consultations with law enforcement officers, health officials, academics, and addicts; many meetings engaged scores of participants.

• Participating agencies: CNC, ONI, NAS, DIA, DEA HQ/Brasilia/Sao Paulo.

Cargo ship at Base Anzol, near Tabatinga Brazil

Brazilian Piper Saratoga

Areas of Brazil Visited

• April-May 2000, team visited Brazil’s Northeast, Amazon Basin, & West.

• July 2000, team visited Brazil’s Central West, South, and Southeast.

• During 1998 & 1999, team members visited a number of BR/BO and BR/PA border towns.

Team visited 25 cities throughout Brazil.

Trafficking Conclusions

90 – 110 MT of pure Cocaine base and HCl entered Brazil in 2000.

• Brazilian traffickers quickly adapted to lower Bolivian supplies by developing new routes.

• New shipments from Colombia (of HCl) and Peru (mostly base) largely compensated for slashed supplies from Bolivia.

Brazilian traffickers often fly cocaine into the country via the Amazon to its dry border with Paraguay.

Sources of Brazilian cocaine flow

• Colombia: Accounted for 50-60 MT in 2000, most by air with much of that via Paraguay and Suriname.

• Peruvian cocaine accounts for 20-30 MT of deliveries to Brazil, with much of that transiting Bolivia.

• Bolivia is increasingly becoming a transit country for Peruvian cocaine.

• Suriname increasingly a transit country for Colombia Cocaine to Brazil & Europe

• Some of the flow through Paraguay: involves arms-for-cocaine swaps.

Brazilian Cocaine Movement Corridors Amazon Southern

Sao Paulo: Hub of Brazilian Trafficking

• Most cocaine moves to the major markets in Sao Paulo and Rio.

• Cocaine arrives in Sao Paulo by air and land mainly from Paraguay, Mato Grosso do Sul, or Mato Grosso.

• Hub for both international trafficking—onward though Southeastern ports—and to supply large domestic markets.

Average annual Federal Police seizures1997-2000 (5.9 MT per year)

Remaining 23 states

38%

Amazonas9% Rondonia

9%

Mato Grosso 10%

Mato Grosso do Sul14%

Sao Paulo20%

Cocaine Consumption in Brazil

Based on a number of methodologies we concluded that Brazilians consumed

35 – 50 MT of pure cocaine in 2000.

Consumption Conclusions

Cocaine use has increased steadily since 1980.

– Cocaine use is particularly heavy along the traditional trafficking corridor.

– Cocaine use accelerated in the 1990s with the popularization of crack beginning in Sao Paulo.

– Since 1995 crack use has spread south to Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul.

– Crack use has not spread to Rio de Janeiro, but Rio is the second largest market in Brazil.

Cocaine use by region, metric tons 2000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

All Brazil SouthEast

South NorthEast

CentralWest

North

Baseline estimate Conservative estimate

Cocaine Use by State, metric tons 2000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sao Paulo Rio deJaneiro

Rio Grandedo Sul

Minas Gerais Parana SantaCatarina

Baseline Estimate Conservative Estimate

Cocaine Use

By Region By State

Trends in cocaine consumption

• Crack use is up, but cocaine HCl is still the most popular way to use cocaine.

– Most Brazilians choose HCl over crack because they have the education and personal support systems to understand the enormous risks of using crack.

– Crack is more socially destructive because it is so highly addictive and leads to violent behavior.

• The good news is cocaine injecting is off sharply, because of increased AIDS awareness and the growing crack abuse.

Lesson Learned from the Collapse of the Bolivian Coca Crop in 2000

The cocaine supply was down in 2000 but very difficult to detect because it was masked by changes in purity

1998 Situation: Most Cocaine from Bolivia

Cocaine Use Patterns

Exports from Brazil

• Of the 90 to 110 MT of cocaine entering Brazil, we assess 35 to 70 MT per year are exported.

– Up to 10 metric tons is exported to the United States.

• Most cocaine leaves Brazil via maritime conveyance, with some of that leaving via the Amazon.

Containerized port facilities, Manaus, Brazil

Departure countries for cocaine seized in Western Europe, by number of seizures, 1998

23%

3% 3% 3% 2% 1%

65%

Colombia Brazil Venezuela Chile Ecuador Argentina Others

Brazilian mobile inspection station, Base Anzol, Amazon River, Brazil

Key Findings

• Brazil faces a substantial cocaine threat:

– 90-110 MT Flow

– 35-50 MT Consumption

– 35-70 MT Exports

• Large by any account!

Sunset over port in Rio, Brazil

No Quick Fixes

• Improvements in interdiction in Colombia and the Caribbean will encourage more exports through Brazil.

• As we learned from the emergence of Beira Mar, the domestic market will continue to be fed.

Worldwide Cocaine Consumption

Presented to Embassy Country Team

19 August 2002

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

US Cocaine Consumption

Source: US National Household Survey, SAMSHA

Persons twelve and older who have used cocaine in the last month, or last year, 1979-2000Millions

Last year

Last month

US Cocaine Consumption

European Market Maturing

The dramatic increase in cocaine seizures in non-US markets outside of the Source Zone indicates a growing world markets outside the US.

– Press and other estimates indicate that Europeans consume 100 to 150 metric tons of cocaine

each year.

– There is also substantial cocaine consumption in Canada, Australia, South Africa, and Nigeria, with at least small amounts in virtually every country in the world.

Non-US Arrival/Transit Zone Seizures (U)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Met

ric to

ns

European Market Maturing

UK: Cocaine HCl and crack use, 1994-2000, percent of adult use past year

00.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.61.8

1994 1996 1998 2000

Cocaine HCl use,adults last year

Crack use, adults lastyear

Spain: Share of Emergency Room visits by Primary Drug of Use

0

20

40

60

80

100

1996 1997 1998 1999

Cocaine

Heroin

Growing Cocaine Abuse in Europe

Latin America, Most Dynamic Market

Survey data indicate the past-month consumption of cocaine more than doubled in Bolivia and Peru during 1992-98.

CNC estimates that Latin Americans consume over a 190 metric tons of cocaine and another 40 metric tons of HCl equivalent in coca leaf.

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Bolivia Chile Colombia Peru US Argentina

Cocaine HCl Cocaine Base/Crack

Percent of adults who used cocaine HCl or base/crack within the past year, by country.

Countries with highest annual prevalence for cocaine HCl use

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

United

Sta

tes

Domin

can

Repub

licSpa

in

Austra

liaChil

e

Bolivia

Irelan

d

Argen

tina

United

King

don

1998

2000

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1998

2000

Countries with highest annual prevalence for cocaine base/crack use

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1998

2000

Countries with highest annual Cocaine

Consumption (Metric Tons; 1998, 2000)