Interagency Performance Evaluation Interagency Performance Evaluation Task Force (IPET)Task Force (IPET)

Summary & StatusSummary & Status

Dr. Ed Link, Director

IPET MissionIPET Mission

HAZARD

SYSTEM

CONSEQUENCES

Forensic Analysis and Risk Based System Wide Assessment

https://ipet.wes.army.mil http://www.mhclibrary.com

Results are “in the Ground”

IPET Final ReportIPET Final Report

DOJ for Release by 31 JanVOL IX - Appendices

Draft Final being prepared, initial release by early Mar, final by Jun

VOL VIII – The Risk and Reliability Analysis

DoJ for release of Final by 31 JanVOL VII – The Consequences

Draft Final being completed, Release expected by end of Feb

VOL VI The Performance –Drainage and Pumping

Draft Final in edit, Release expected by end Feb

VOL V The Performance - Levees and Floodwalls

Draft Final in edit, Release expected by 15 Feb

VOL IV The Storm

Draft Final in edit, Release expected by 15 Feb

VOL III The Hurricane Protection System

DOJ for Release of Final 31 JanVOL II Geodetic Vertical and Water Level Datums

DOJ for Release of Interim Final 31 Jan

VOL I Executive Summary And Overview

StatusVolume

Performance Evaluation of the New Orleans and Performance Evaluation of the New Orleans and Southeast Louisiana Hurricane Protection SystemSoutheast Louisiana Hurricane Protection System

Final Report of the Interagency Final Report of the Interagency Performance Evaluation Task ForcePerformance Evaluation Task Force

DOJ for Release by 31 JanVOL IX - Appendices

Draft Final being prepared, initial release by early Mar, final by Jun

VOL VIII – The Risk and Reliability Analysis

DoJ for release of Final by 31 JanVOL VII – The Consequences

Draft Final being completed, Release expected by end of Feb

VOL VI The Performance – Drainage and Pumping

Draft Final in edit, Release expected by end Feb

VOL V The Performance - Levees and Floodwalls

Draft Final in edit, Release expected by 15 Feb

VOL IV The Storm

Draft Final in edit, Release expected by 15 Feb

VOL III The Hurricane Protection System

DOJ for Release of Final 31 JanVOL II Geodetic Vertical and Water Level Datums

DOJ for Release of Interim Final 31 JanVOL I Executive Summary And Overview

StatusVolume

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7

Time (days)

Elev

atio

n (ft

)

The HazardThe Hazard

Issues: Climate DynamicsCoastal Dynamics

Probability of Surge and Wave Levelsby Locale

Surge

Waves

Rain

Central PressureMax WindsRadius to max windsSpeedTrack

Fore

nsic

Ana

lysi

sSy

stem

Wid

e A

sses

smen

t

Katrina Time History of Forces by Locale

Probability Characteristics for Set of PBL Parameters and Tracks(including potential climate variability)

Wind Field – Wind Stresses

Surge Models Wave Models

Water Levels, Overtopping, Loads on Structures, etc.

Winds:Oceanweather PBL

Offcoast Waves:WAM/Wavewatch

Nearshore Waves:STWAVE/SWAN

Local Scale Waves:Boussinesq - Parametric

Unified GridSurge model:ADCIRC withwave set-up(version 46.50)

Coupling

Integration of JPM Probabilities for Inundation Threat

Plus effects on leveesdue to waves

Joint Probability Method Joint Probability Method –– Optimum SamplingOptimum Sampling

The 2 primary dimensions for estimation of surge maxima along coast: Storm Intensity and Storm Size. Katrina is about a 400-year storm and Rita isAbout a 90-year storm in their areas of maximum effect

NOAA chart with storms versusintensity only

Chart from ADCIRC simulationsshowing that both intensity andsize affect surges at the coast

Plot of estimated cumulative kinetic energy for all storms: 1941-2005.

The Hazard is DynamicThe Hazard is Dynamic

The SystemThe System

Distribution of Types of StructuresDistribution of Types of Structures

PrePre--Katrina Katrina vsvs Authorized ElevationsAuthorized Elevations

Breach Sites and CharacterizationBreach Sites and Characterization

Post Katrina Post Katrina vsvs Authorized ElevationsAuthorized Elevations

System PerformanceSystem PerformanceFo

rens

ic A

naly

sis

Syst

em W

ide

Ass

essm

ent

CL

RainfallOvertoppingBreaching

RainfallOvertoppingBreaching

Expected Performanceby Event andArea

Katrina Performanceby Component

0.5 ft1 ft2 ft3 ft

Elevation (NAVD88 (2004.65))

Prob

abili

ty o

f Fa

ilure

1

0Global Stability

Erosion

Design

+0.5 ft

+1.0 ft

+2.0 ft+3.0 ft

Erodibility Index Factor

EpistemicUncertainty

Correlation of Levee Performance and Correlation of Levee Performance and Quality of MaterialsQuality of Materials

LegendLevee Footprint

Levee Breaches

LegendLevee Footprint

Hydraulic Fill

Hauled Fill

Drainage and Pumping Drainage and Pumping

ConsequencesConsequences

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Stage

Dire

ct E

cono

mic

Los

ses

(mill

ions

)

5% LCMean95% UC

Katrina

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

-9.9 -7.9 -5.9 -3.9 -1.9 0.1 2.1 4.1 6.1 8.1 10.1

12.1

14.1

16.1

18.1

20.1

22.1

24.1

Flood Water Elevation Nav88(2004.65)

Estim

ated

Fat

aliti

es

KatrinaDistributedLife, Cultural,Economic & EnvironmentalLossesFo

rens

ic A

naly

sis

Syst

em W

ide

Ass

essm

ent

Distributed Life and EconomicLossesby Event & Scenario

Flooding

Losses

Elevation -Exceedance

IPET Risk ModelIPET Risk Model

Hazard Reliability Flooding Losses

Scenario B

Scenario A

Risk = P(bad) x Loss Illustrative Only

Sources of RiskSources of RiskRelative Risk

0

20

40

60

80

100

Percent of Reach Risk

A B C

Scenario

BreachingOvertoppingFeatureTransition

Sources of Risk

0

5

10

15

20

25

$M/year

A B C

Scenario

NOEOrleans EastJefferson EastJefferson WestSt. BernardsSt. CharlesPlaquemines

NOAA Inundation MappingNOAA Inundation MappingRisk Model TestingRisk Model TestingKatrina Katrina –– PrePre--Katrina SystemKatrina System

Chance of InundationChance of Inundation

Vulnerability AnalysisVulnerability Analysis

Risk Informed Decisions Risk Informed Decisions

NOE5 – Reach 2

NOE4 – Reach 3

SB2 – Feature 1

OM4 – Feature 3

JE3 – Reach 4

OM5 – Reach 7

Ann

ual F

ailu

re P

roba

bilit

y, p

f

1.E-09

1.E-08

1.E-07

1.E-06

1.E-05

1.E-04

1.E-03

1.E-02

1.E-01

0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000

Loss of Life, N

1.E-09

1.E-08

1.E-07

1.E-06

1.E-05

1.E-04

1.E-03

1.E-02

1.E-01

1.E-001.E-00

1000000

High Justification

Increased Justification

Low Justification

Illustrative Only

POLICY !!