Inter-comparison of Operational Wave Forecasting …. 10th...10th int. workshop on wave hindcasting...

10th int. workshop on wave hindcasting and forecasting Slide 1

Inter-comparison of

Operational Wave Forecasting Systems

Jean-Raymond Bidlot, European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF),Jian-Guo Li, the Met Office, UK, (MO),

Paul Wittmann, Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre, USA, (FNMOC),Manon Fauchon, Meteorological Service of Canada, Canada, (MSC),

Hsuan Chen, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, USA, (NCEP),Jean–Michel Lefèvre, Météo France, France, (MF),

Thomas Bruns, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany, (DWD),Diana Greenslade, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, (BoM),

Fabrice Ardhuin, Service Hydrographique et Océanographique de la Marine, France, (SHOM)Nadao Kohno, Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan, (JMA),

Sanwook Park, Korea Meteorological Administration, Republic of Korea, (KMA),Marta Gomez, Puertos del Estado, Spain (PRTOS).


Motivations:Following WISE 1995, a routine inter-comparison of wave model forecasts was set-up.

It was intended to provide a mechanism for benchmarking wave forecast products.

Since the early 90’s, more wave observations have been available.

Wave forecasting is now routine at many operational centres.

The JCOMM Expert Team on Wind Waves and Storm Surges (ETWS) following ETWS-1(Halifax, 2003) endorsed the expansion of the project.

At ETWS-2 (Geneva 2007), it was agreed to continue and expand this activity.

First results were presented during WAVES97 (Bidlot et al. 1998) and a peer review paper was published (Bidlot et al. 2002).

It is now opportune to review what has been achieved.


Methodology:

Each month, model data (analysis and forecasts) are exchanged for a set of prescribed locations where wave and wind observations are made.A simple ASCII format is used.The data sets are combined at ECMWF and quality controlled in-situ observations of wind speed and direction, wave height and wave period are added to the data set.The combined data sets are made available to all participants.Summary plots and tables are also produced at ECMWF.A technical report is available at:http://www.wmo.ch/pages/prog/amp/mmop/documents/Jcomm-TR/J-TR-30/J-TR-30.pdf

http://www.wmo.ch/pages/prog/amp/mmop/documents/Jcomm-TR/J-TR-30/J-TR-30.pdf


Conclusions:

This informal inter-comparison of wind and wave model data has worked well for over 12 years.It is time to work on extending this exercise.By adding wave spectra?By comparing to remotely sensed data (Altimeter(s), SARs)?By exchanging model fields (High Resolution Diagnostic Data set (HHDR) approach, objective score approach)?


Participants :1995:• European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), global model.• The Met Office, UK, (MO), global model.• Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre, USA, (FNMOC), global model.• Meteorological Service of Canada, Canada, (MSC), 2 limited area models (N Pac. & N Atl.).

1996:

• National Centers for Environmental Prediction, USA, (NCEP), global model.

2001:

• Météo France, France (MF), global model*

2004:

• Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany, (DWD), global model and limited area models (N Sea & Med.).

2006:• Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, (BoM), global model.• Service Hydrographique et Océanographique de la Marine, France, (SHOM), global model & N Atl..• Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan, (JMA), global model.

2007:• Korea Meteorological Administration, Republic of Korea, (KMA), global model.• Puetos del Estado, Spain (PRTOS), limited area models (N Atl. & Med.).


40°S 40°S

30°S30°S

20°S 20°S

10°S10°S

0° 0°

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

50°N50°N

60°N 60°N

70°N70°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E 180°

180° 160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W

1996

40°S 40°S

30°S30°S

20°S 20°S

10°S10°S

0° 0°

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

50°N50°N

60°N 60°N

70°N70°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E 180°

180° 160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W

2002

40°S 40°S

30°S30°S

20°S 20°S

10°S10°S

0° 0°

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

50°N50°N

60°N 60°N

70°N70°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E 180°

180° 160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W

2007

In-situ observations from buoys and platforms:

Locations where wind and wave data were collocated with ECMWF model.

Quality control and processing of the data done at ECMWF

Sources: mostly via the WMO GTS, but also fromthe South African Weather Service, and recently fromBoM, Puertos del Estado, Oceanor, and SHOM.


70°S70°S

60°S 60°S

50°S50°S

40°S 40°S

30°S30°S

20°S 20°S

10°S10°S

0° 0°

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

50°N50°N

60°N 60°N

70°N70°N

160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E

Wind and wave observations at common locations for all buoys from 200706 to 200708Wind and wave observations at common locations for all buoys from 200706 to 200708

Results based on original list of buoy locations


Original list

1SEPTEMBER 2007

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 300

1

2

3

4

5

6

Analysed significant wave height and averaged buoy data at buoy 46001

avg obs ECMWF UKMO FNMOC AES NCEP METFR DWD AUSBM SHOM JMA KMA PRTOS

1SEPTEMBER 2007

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 300123456789

1011121314151617181920

Analysed peak period and averaged buoy data at buoy 46001

avg obs ECMWF UKMO FNMOC AES NCEP METFR DWD AUSBM SHOM JMA KMA PRTOS


0 1 2 3 4 5common data only, fc from 0 and 12Z for 0706 to 0708

04.89.6

14.419.2

2428.833.638.443.2

48

S.I.

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT SCATTER INDEX at all 34 buoysECMWF METOF FNMOC MSC NCEP METFR DW D AUSBM SHOM JMA KMA PRTOS


-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3B

IAS

(m)

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT BIAS at all 34 buoysECMWF METOF FNMOC MSC NCEP METFR DW D AUSBM SHOM JMA KMA PRTOS

all buoys 0706 to 0708

0 2 4 6 8HS (m) buoy

0

2

4

6

8

HS (

m)

E.C.M.W.F.

w ith averaged buoy data. fc from 0 and 12Z.Com parison of forecast(t=t+24) ECMWF w ave height

ENTRIES:

1 - 33 - 66 - 13

13 - 29

29 - 67

67 - 155

155 - 360

410014101042001420024200344004440084401144137441384413944141460014600446035460664600246005

46006460364605951001510025100351004620016202962052620816210562108621636404564046

SYMMETRIC SLOPE = 0.976CORR COEF = 0.954 SI = 0.151RMSE = 0.251 BIAS = -0.015LSQ FIT: SLOPE = 0.874 INTR = 0.195BUOY MEAN = 1.66 STDEV = 0.834MODEL MEAN = 1.65 STDEV = 0.763ENTRIES = 3456

Original list

Statistics for all buoys combined



04.89.6

14.419.2

2428.833.638.443.2

48

S.I.



-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3B

IAS

(m)


0 2 4 6 8HS (m) buoy

0

2

4

6

8

HS (m

)

MetOffice

with averaged buoy data. fc from 0 and 12Z.Comparison of forecast(t=t+24) NCEP wave height

ENTRIES:

1 - 33 - 66 - 13

13 - 29

29 - 67

67 - 155

155 - 360

410014101042001420024200344004440084401144137441384413944141460014600446035460664600246005

46006460364605951001510025100351004620016202962052620816210562108621636404564046

SYMMETRIC SLOPE = 1.106CORR COEF = 0.917 SI = 0.210RMSE = 0.403 BIAS = 0.201LSQ FIT: SLOPE = 0.960 INTR = 0.267BUOY MEAN = 1.66 STDEV = 0.834MODEL MEAN = 1.87 STDEV = 0.873ENTRIES = 3456

METOF


0 2 4 6 8HS (m) buoy

0

2

4

6

8

HS (m

)

F.N.M.O.C.

w ith averaged buoy data. fc from 0 and 12Z.Comparison of forecast(t=t+24) FNMOC w ave height

ENTRIES:

1 - 33 - 66 - 13

13 - 29

29 - 67

67 - 155

155 - 360

410014101042001420024200344004440084401144137441384413944141460014600446035460664600246005

46006460364605951001510025100351004620016202962052620816210562108621636404564046

SYMMETRIC SLOPE = 1.040CORR COEF = 0.938 SI = 0.192RMSE = 0.322 BIAS = 0.039LSQ FIT: SLOPE = 1.032 INTR = -0.014BUOY MEAN = 1.66 STDEV = 0.834MODEL MEAN = 1.70 STDEV = 0.918ENTRIES = 3456


04.89.6

14.419.2

2428.833.638.443.2

48

S.I.



-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3B

IAS

(m)




04.89.6

14.419.2

2428.833.638.443.2

48

S.I.



-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3B

IAS

(m)


0 2 4 6 8HS (m) buoy

0

2

4

6

8

HS (m

)

N.C.E.P.

w ith averaged buoy data. fc from 0 and 12Z.Comparison of forecast(t=t+24) UKMO w ave height

ENTRIES:

1 - 33 - 66 - 13

13 - 29

29 - 67

67 - 155

155 - 360

410014101042001420024200344004440084401144137441384413944141460014600446035460664600246005

46006460364605951001510025100351004620016202962052620816210562108621636404564046


NCEP


0 2 4 6 8HS (m) buoy

0

2

4

6

8

HS (m

)

MeteoFrance

w ith averaged buoy data. fc from 0 and 12Z.Comparison of forecast(t=t+24) METFR w ave height

ENTRIES:

1 - 33 - 66 - 13

13 - 29

29 - 67

67 - 155

155 - 360

410014101042001420024200344004440084401144137441384413944141460014600446035460664600246005

46006460364605951001510025100351004620016202962052620816210562108621636404564046



04.89.6

14.419.2

2428.833.638.443.2

48

S.I.



-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3B

IAS

(m)




0 2 4 6 8HS (m) buoy

0

2

4

6

8

HS (

m)

D.W.D.

with averaged buoy data. fc from 0 and 12Z.Comparison of forecast(t=t+24) DWD wave height

ENTRIES:

1 - 33 - 66 - 13

13 - 29

29 - 67

67 - 155

155 - 360

410014101042001420024200344004440084401144137441384413944141460014600446035460664600246005

46006460364605951001510025100351004620016202962052620816210562108621636404564046



04.89.6

14.419.2

2428.833.638.443.2

48

S.I.



-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3B

IAS

(m)



0 2 4 6 8HS (m) buoy

0

2

4

6

8

HS (m

)

BoM

with averaged buoy data. fc from 0 and 12Z.Comparison of forecast(t=t+24) BoM wave height

ENTRIES:

1 - 33 - 66 - 13

13 - 29

29 - 67

67 - 155

155 - 360

410014101042001420024200344004440084401144137441384413944141460014600446035460664600246005

46006460364605951001510025100351004620016202962052620816210562108621636404564046



04.89.6

14.419.2

2428.833.638.443.2

48

S.I.



-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3B

IAS

(m)



0 2 4 6 8HS (m) buoy

0

2

4

6

8

HS (m

)

S.H.O.M.

with averaged buoy data. fc from 0 and 12Z.Comparison of forecast(t=t+24) SHOM wave height

ENTRIES:

1 - 33 - 66 - 13

13 - 29

29 - 67

67 - 155

155 - 360

410014101042001420024200344004440084401144137441384413944141460014600446035460664600246005

46006460364605951001510025100351004620016202962052620816210562108621636404564046



04.89.6

14.419.2

2428.833.638.443.2

48

S.I.



-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3B

IAS

(m)




0 2 4 6 8HS (m) buoy

0

2

4

6

8

HS (

m)

J.M.A.

with averaged buoy data. fc from 0 and 12Z.Comparison of forecast(t=t+24) JMA wave height

ENTRIES:

1 - 33 - 66 - 13

13 - 29

29 - 67

67 - 155

155 - 360

410014101042001420024200344004440084401144137441384413944141460014600446035460664600246005

46006460364605951001510025100351004620016202962052620816210562108621636404564046

SYMMETRIC SLOPE = 0.914CORR COEF = 0.913 SI = 0.209RMSE = 0.394 BIAS = -0.183LSQ FIT: SLOPE = 0.919 INTR = -0.049BUOY MEAN = 1.66 STDEV = 0.834MODEL MEAN = 1.48 STDEV = 0.839ENTRIES = 3456


04.89.6

14.419.2

2428.833.638.443.2

48

S.I.



-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3B

IAS

(m)



0 2 4 6 8HS (m) buoy

0

2

4

6

8

HS (m

)

K.M.A.

with averaged buoy data. fc from 0 and 12Z.Comparison of forecast(t=t+24) KMA wave height

ENTRIES:

1 - 33 - 66 - 13

13 - 29

29 - 67

67 - 155

155 - 360

410014101042001420024200344004440084401144137441384413944141460014600446035460664600246005

46006460364605951001510025100351004620016202962052620816210562108621636404564046



04.89.6

14.419.2

2428.833.638.443.2

48

S.I.



-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3B

IAS

(m)



2004 2005 2006 2007months (median of the running averages)

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

39

42

45SI

(%

)SCATTER INDEX FOR WAVE HEIGHT at All buoys

KMA +3

KMA +1

JMA +3

JMA +1

SHOM +3

SHOM +1

AUSBM +3

AUSBM +1

DWD +3

DWD +1

METFR +3

METFR +1

FNMOC +3

FNMOC +1

NCEP +3

NCEP +1

UKMO +3

UKMO +1

ECMWF +3

ECMWF +1

Original list: wave height scatter index time series

Analysis

fc d+3

2004 2007


1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007months (median of the running averages)

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

39

42

45SI

(%


KMA +3

KMA +1

JMA +3

JMA +1

SHOM +3

SHOM +1

AUSBM +3

AUSBM +1

DWD +3

DWD +1

METFR +3

METFR +1

FNMOC +3

FNMOC +1

NCEP +3

NCEP +1

UKMO +3

UKMO +1

ECMWF +3

ECMWF +1


12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

39

42

45SI

(%


KMA +3

KMA +1

JMA +3

JMA +1

SHOM +3

SHOM +1

AUSBM +3

AUSBM +1

DWD +3

DWD +1

METFR +3

METFR +1

FNMOC +3

FNMOC +1

NCEP +3

NCEP +1

UKMO +3

UKMO +1

ECMWF +3

ECMWF +1

Original list: wave height scatter index time series

Analysis

fc d+3

12-month runningaverage

20071997



16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50SI

(%

)SCATTER INDEX FOR WIND SPEED (anemometer height corrected) at All buoys

KMA +3

KMA +1

JMA +3

JMA +1

SHOM +3

SHOM +1

AUSBM +3

AUSBM +1

DWD +3

DWD +1

METFR +3

METFR +1

FNMOC +3

FNMOC +1

NCEP +3

NCEP +1

UKMO +3

UKMO +1

ECMWF +3

ECMWF +1

Original list: wind speed scatter index time series

12-month runningAverage.

Wind speed

20071997



121416182022242628303234363840424446485052

SI (

%)

SCATTER INDEX FOR PEAK PERIOD at All buoys

KMA +3

KMA +1

JMA +3

JMA +1

SHOM +3

SHOM +1

AUSBM +3

AUSBM +1

DWD +3

DWD +1

METFR +3

METFR +1

FNMOC +3

FNMOC +1

NCEP +3

NCEP +1

UKMO +3

UKMO +1

ECMWF +3

ECMWF +1

Original list: peak period scatter index time series

12-month runningAverage.

Peak period

20071997


32°N32°N33°N 33°N

34°N34°N35°N 35°N

36°N36°N37°N 37°N

38°N38°N39°N 39°N

40°N40°N41°N 41°N

42°N42°N43°N 43°N

44°N44°N45°N 45°N

46°N46°N47°N 47°N

48°N48°N49°N 49°N

50°N50°N51°N 51°N

52°N52°N53°N 53°N

54°N54°N55°N 55°N

56°N56°N57°N 57°N

58°N58°N59°N 59°N

60°N60°N61°N 61°N

178°E

178°E 180°

180°

176°W

176°W

172°W

172°W

168°W

168°W

164°W

164°W

160°W

160°W

156°W

156°W

152°W

152°W

148°W

148°W

144°W

144°W

140°W

140°W

136°W

136°W

132°W

132°W

128°W

128°W

124°W

124°W

120°W

120°W

116°W

116°W

1

2

3

4

567

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

1718

19

2021

22

46001 40 40 40 Gulf of Alaska 46002 123 152 152 US West Coast,Oregon 46004 180 171 171 Canada West Coast, Middle Nomad 46005 180 180 180 US North-West Coast, W Astoria 46006 34 28 28 US West Coast, SW Astoria 46013 146 179 179 US South-West Coast, Bodega 46014 100 100 100 US South-West Coast, Point Arena 46023 180 180 180 US South-West Coast, Point Arguello 46029 163 180 180 US West Coast, Columbia River Bar 46035 6 6 6 Bering Sea 46036 180 177 177 Canada West Coast, South Nomad

46042 179 178 178 US South-West Coast, Monterey 46050 180 180 180 US West Coast, Yaquina Bay 46059 180 180 180 US West Coast, California 46066 180 180 180 Gulf of Alaska, S Aleutians 46083 165 167 167 Gulf of Alaska, Fairw eather Grounds 46132 154 154 154 Canada West Coast, South Brooks 46147 180 180 180 Canada West Coast, South Moresby 46205 170 161 161 Canada West Coast, W. Dixon Entrance 46206 152 152 152 Canada West Coast, La Perouse Bank 46207 157 157 157 Canada West Coast, East Dellw ood 46208 178 175 175 Canada West Coast, West Moresby

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Number of common observations for North East Pacific buoys (NEPAC) from 200706 to 200708 (wind, Hs, Tp)

26°N26°N

27°N 27°N

28°N28°N

29°N 29°N

30°N30°N

31°N 31°N

32°N32°N

33°N 33°N

34°N34°N

35°N 35°N

36°N36°N

37°N 37°N

38°N38°N

39°N 39°N

40°N40°N

41°N 41°N

42°N42°N

43°N 43°N

44°N44°N

45°N 45°N

46°N46°N

47°N 47°N

48°N48°N

49°N 49°N

50°N50°N

94°W

94°W 92°W

92°W 90°W

90°W 88°W

88°W 86°W

86°W 84°W

84°W 82°W

82°W 80°W

80°W 78°W

78°W 76°W

76°W 74°W

74°W 72°W

72°W 70°W

70°W 68°W

68°W 66°W

66°W 64°W

64°W 62°W

62°W 60°W

60°W 58°W

58°W 56°W

56°W 54°W

54°W 52°W

52°W 50°W

50°W 48°W

48°W 46°W

46°W 44°W

44°W 42°W

42°W 40°W

40°W

1

2

3

4

5

67

8

9

1011

1213 1415

1617

41001 178 177 177 US East Coast, E Hatteras 41004 101 100 100 US South-East Coast, Edisto 41010 178 179 179 US East Florida , Cape Canaveral East 44004 180 179 179 US North East Coast, Hotel 44005 55 129 129 US North East Coast, Gulf of Maine 44008 180 180 180 US North-East Coast, Nantucket 44009 180 179 179 US North-East Coast, Delaw are bay 44011 180 180 180 US North-East Coast, Georges Bank 44014 179 176 176 US East Coast, Virginia Beach

44025 0 179 179 US North East Coast, Long Island 44137 178 118 118 Nova Scotia, East Scotia slope 44138 64 178 178 New foundland, SW Grand Bank 44139 178 177 177 New foundland, Banquerau 44140 179 117 117 New foundland, Tail Of The Bank 44141 180 180 180 Nova Scotia, Laurentian Fan 44251 71 143 143 New foundland, Nickerson Bank 44255 180 179 0 New foundland, NE Bugeo Bank

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Number of common observations for North West Atlantic buoys (NWATL) from 200706 to 200708 (wind, Hs, Tp)

North EastPacificNorth WestAtlantic

Sub-areas:


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007months (median of the running averages)

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38SI

(%

)SCATTER INDEX FOR WAVE HEIGHT at North East Pacific buoys

SHOM t+048

SHOM t+000

AUSBM t+048

AUSBM t+000

DWD t+048

DWD t+000

MSC t+048

MSC t+000

FNMOC t+048

FNMOC t+000

ECMWF t+048

ECMWF t+000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007months (median of the running averages)

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38SI

(%

)SCATTER INDEX FOR WAVE HEIGHT at North West Atlantic buoys

SHOM t+048

SHOM t+000

AUSBM t+048

AUSBM t+000

DWD t+048

DWD t+000

MSC t+048

MSC t+000

FNMOC t+048

FNMOC t+000

ECMWF t+048

ECMWF t+000

North EastPacificNorth WestAtlantic

20072002


37°N37°N

38°N 38°N

39°N39°N

40°N 40°N

41°N41°N

42°N 42°N

43°N43°N

44°N 44°N

45°N45°N

46°N 46°N

47°N47°N

48°N 48°N

49°N49°N

50°N 50°N

51°N51°N

52°N 52°N

53°N53°N

54°N 54°N

55°N55°N

56°N 56°N

57°N57°N

58°N 58°N

59°N59°N

60°N 60°N

61°N61°N

38°W

38°W 36°W

36°W 34°W

34°W 32°W

32°W 30°W

30°W 28°W

28°W 26°W

26°W 24°W

24°W 22°W

22°W 20°W

20°W 18°W

18°W 16°W

16°W 14°W

14°W 12°W

12°W 10°W

10°W 8°W

8°W 6°W

6°W 4°W

4°W 2°W

2°W 0°

0° 2°E

2°E 4°E

4°E 6°E

6°E 8°E

8°E 10°E

10°E 12°E

12°E 14°E

14°E

123

4 5

6

7

8910

1112

13

14

15

16

17

18

62001 118 118 0 Gulf of Biscay, Gascogne 62024 65 115 115 Bilbao (Spain) 62025 115 115 115 Cabo de Penas (Spain) 62029 168 168 0 UK Celtic Sea shelf break (K1) 62052 113 118 0 CETMEF Ouessant (Brest) 62064 0 117 117 SHOM (Cape Ferret) 62081 169 169 117 UK East Atlantic (K2) 62082 94 94 94 Estaca de Bares (Spain) 62083 89 89 89 Villano-Sisargas (Spain)

62084 115 115 115 Silleiro Spain) 62090 1 0 0 West Ireland (M1), Aran Islands 62092 118 118 118 South West Ireland (M3), Mizen Head 62095 118 118 0 West Ireland (M6), West Coast 62105 0 134 117 UK East Atlantic (K4) 62107 118 118 118 Isle of Scilly (7 stones) 62108 0 168 118 UK East Atlantic (K3) 62163 69 118 118 UK Celtic Sea shelf break (Brittany) 64045 0 118 118 UK North-East Atlantic (K5)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Number of common observations for North East Atlantic buoys (NEATL) from 200708 to 200709 (wind, Hs, Tz)

34.5°N34.5°N

35°N 35°N

35.5°N35.5°N

36°N 36°N

36.5°N36.5°N

37°N 37°N

37.5°N37.5°N

38°N 38°N

38.5°N38.5°N

39°N 39°N

39.5°N39.5°N

40°N 40°N

40.5°N40.5°N

41°N 41°N

41.5°N41.5°N

42°N 42°N

42.5°N42.5°N

43°N 43°N

43.5°N43.5°N

44°N 44°N

10°W

10°W 9°W

9°W 8°W

8°W 7°W

7°W 6°W

6°W 5°W

5°W 4°W

4°W 3°W

3°W 2°W

2°W 1°W

1°W 0°

0° 1°E

1°E 2°E

2°E 3°E

3°E 4°E

4°E 5°E

5°E 6°E

6°E 7°E

7°E 8°E

8°E 9°E

9°E 10°E

10°E 11°E

11°E 12°E

12°E

1

23

4

5

6

7

8

9

61001 108 116 0 Ligurian Sea (Cote d'Azure) 61002 115 115 0 Gulf of Lion 61196 97 114 114 Begur (Spain) 61197 53 53 53 Mahon (Spain) 61198 113 114 114 Cabo Gata (Spain)

61280 114 14 14 Tarragona (Spain) 61281 91 91 91 Valencia (Spain) 61417 114 114 114 Cabo de Palos (Spain) 61430 114 111 111 Dragonera (Spain)

1 2 3 4 5

6 7 8 9

Number of common observations for Western Mediterranean Sea (WMED) from 200708 to 200709 (wind, Hs, Tz)

Euro Atlantic

Western Mediterranean Sea


0 1 2 3common data only, fc�from 0 and 12Z for 200708 to 200709

04.5

913.5

1822.5

2731.5

3640.5

45S.

I.SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT SCATTER INDEX at 17 NEATL buoys

ECMWF METOF FNMOC MSC NCEP METFR DW D AUSBM SHOM JMA KMA PRTOS

0 1 2 3common data only, fc from 0 and 12Z�for 200708 to 200709

05.511

16.522

27.533

38.544

49.555

S.I.

10m WIND SPEED SCATTER INDEX at 14 NEATL buoysECMWF METOF FNMOC MSC NCEP METFR DW D AUSBM SHOM JMA KMA PRTOS

0 1 2 3common data�only, fc from 0 and 12Z for 200708 to 200709

02468

101214161820

S.I.

MEAN PERIOD SCATTER INDEX at 13 NEATL buoysECMWF METOF FNMOC MSC NCEP METFR DW D AUSBM SHOM JMA KMA PRTOS

0 1 2 3common data only, fc�from 0 and 12Z for 200708 to 200709

04.5

913.5

1822.5

2731.5

3640.5

45

S.I.

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT SCATTER INDEX at 9 WMED buoysECMWF METOF FNMOC MSC NCEP METFR DW D AUSBM SHOM JMA KMA PRTOS

0 1 2 3common data only, fc from 0 and 12Z�for 200708 to 200709

05.511

16.522

27.533

38.544

49.555

S.I.

10m WIND SPEED SCATTER INDEX at 9 WMED buoysECMWF METOF FNMOC MSC NCEP METFR DW D AUSBM SHOM JMA KMA PRTOS

0 1 2 3common data�only, fc from 0 and 12Z for 200708 to 200709

02468

101214161820

S.I.

MEAN PERIOD SCATTER INDEX at 7 WMED buoysECMWF METOF FNMOC MSC NCEP METFR DW D AUSBM SHOM JMA KMA PRTOS

Euro Atlantic Western Mediterranean Sea

Hs

wind

Tz


70°S70°S

60°S 60°S

50°S50°S

40°S 40°S

30°S30°S

20°S 20°S

10°S10°S

0° 0°

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

50°N50°N

60°N 60°N

70°N70°N

160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E

Wind and wave observations at common locations for all buoys from 200708 to 200709Wind and wave observations at common locations for all buoys from 200708 to 200709

Latest list


0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

Frequency (Hz)0

100

200

300

400

E(f)

(m2 s)

wind speed = 0.00 m/s, wind direction (ocean. convention) = 0°buoy: Hs= 0.00 m, fm= 0.000 Hz, fp= 0.000 Hz U10=43.27 m/s, u*= 3.18 m/s, windsea direction = 299°ey8s: Hs= 16.20 m, fm= 0.079 Hz, fp= 0.067 Hz U10=43.27 m/s, u*= 3.17 m/s, windsea direction = 295°ey8s: Hs= 13.54 m, fm= 0.085 Hz, fp= 0.067 Hz

Qp= 1.156, Dir. Spread = -nanHs= 13.54 m, fm= 0.085 Hz, fp= 0.067 Hzat xxxxx ( 29.00°, -88.80°) at depth 220.0 m21:00Z on 17.08.1969ey8s 1045 AN alpha= 0.1Normalised 2-D spectrum for


ey8sey8s

xxxxx

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

Frequency (Hz)0

20

40

60

80

100

E(f)

(m2 s)

wind speed = 0.00 m/s, wind direction (ocean. convention) = 0°buoy: Hs= 0.00 m, fm= 0.000 Hz, fp= 0.000 Hz U10=32.30 m/s, u*= 2.60 m/s, windsea direction = 26°ey8s: Hs= 10.41 m, fm= 0.097 Hz, fp= 0.090 Hz U10=32.30 m/s, u*= 1.66 m/s, windsea direction = 7°ey8s: Hs= 8.32 m, fm= 0.096 Hz, fp= 0.074 Hz

Qp= 0.968, Dir. Spread = 0.647Hs= 8.32 m, fm= 0.096 Hz, fp= 0.074 Hzat xxxxx ( 29.00°, -88.80°) at depth 220.0 m00:00Z on 18.08.1969ey8s 1045 AN alpha= 0.1Normalised 2-D spectrum for


ey8sey8s

xxxxx

Extension: wave spectra ?


Extension: wave spectra ?


75°S75°S70°S 70°S

65°S65°S60°S 60°S

55°S55°S50°S 50°S

45°S45°S40°S 40°S

35°S35°S30°S 30°S

25°S25°S20°S 20°S

15°S15°S10°S 10°S

5°S5°S0° 0°

5°N5°N10°N 10°N

15°N15°N20°N 20°N

25°N25°N30°N 30°N

35°N35°N40°N 40°N

45°N45°N50°N 50°N

55°N55°N60°N 60°N

65°N65°N70°N 70°N

75°N75°N

10°E

10°E 20°E

20°E 30°E

30°E 40°E

40°E 50°E

50°E 60°E

60°E 70°E

70°E 80°E

80°E 90°E

90°E

110°E

110°E

130°E

130°E

150°E

150°E

170°E

170°E 180°

180°

160°W

160°W

140°W

140°W

120°W

120°W

100°W

100°W

80°W

80°W

60°W

60°W

40°W

40°W

20°W

20°Wwithout data assimilation (ew3d)

model analysis hindcast from 2006-12-01 to 2007-02-28

-0.75-0.65-0.55-0.45-0.35-0.25-0.15-0.050.050.150.250.350.450.550.650.75

757570 70

656560 60

555550 50

454540 40

353530 30

252520 20

151510 10

550 0

5510 10

151520 20

252530 30

353540 40

454550 50

555560 60

656570 70

7575

10

10 20

20 30

30 40

40 50

50 60

60 70

70 80

80 90

90

110

110

130

130

150

150

170

170 180

180

160

160

140

140

120

120

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40

20

20with data assimilation (ew46)

model analysis hindcast from 2006-12-01 to 2007-02-28

-0.75-0.65-0.55-0.45-0.35-0.25-0.15-0.050.050.150.250.350.450.550.650.75

Extension: comparison with altimeter Hs ?


ENVISAT RA-2 SWH St. Dev. Diff. with respect to WAM

Envi

sat A

ssim

.

unre

solv

ed b

ath.

revi

sed

diss

ip.

799

+ Ja

son

IFS

+ A

SCA

T

02-0

7-20

02

01-0

1-20

03

03-0

7-20

03

01-0

1-20

04

02-0

7-20

04

01-0

1-20

05

02-0

7-20

05

01-0

1-20

06

03-0

7-20

06

01-0

1-20

07

03-0

7-20

07

02-0

1-20

08

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60St

. Dev

. of D

iffer

ence

(m

)

GlobalNHTropicsSH

~no data ~no data

Extension: comparison with altimeter Hs ?


Extension: field comparison ?

High Resolution Diagnostic Data set(HRDDS)(see Adrian Hines’presentation


Extension: field comparison: scores as in atm. forecasting


Conclusions:

This informal inter-comparison of wind and wave model data has worked well for over 12 years.It is time to work on extending this exercise.By adding wave spectra?By comparing to remotely sensed data (Altimeter(s), SARs)?By exchanging model fields (HHDR approach, objective score approach)?

Inter-comparison of Operational Wave Forecasting …. 10th...10th int. workshop on wave hindcasting...

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Transcript of Inter-comparison of Operational Wave Forecasting …. 10th...10th int. workshop on wave hindcasting...