Integrating Climate Services with Decision Support in Uganda’s Adaptation and Development Strategy

Uganda | United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)

13 November 2017

Project/Programme Title: Integrating Climate Services with Decision Support in Uganda’s Adaptation and Development Strategy

Country(ies): Uganda

National Designated Authority(ies) (NDA): Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development

Accredited Entity(ies) (AE): United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)

Date of first submission/ version number:

2017-11-13

Date of current submission/ version number

n/a

PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE Template V.2.0

GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 1 OF 12

A. Project / Programme Information (max. 1 page)

A.1. Project or programme ☒ Project

☐ Programme

A.2. Public or private sector

☒ Public sector

☐ Private sector

A.3. Is the CN submitted in

response to an RFP?

Yes ☐ No ☒

If yes, specify the RFP: ______________

A.4. Confidentiality1 ☐ Confidential

☒ Not confidential

A.5. Indicate the result areas for the project/programme

Mitigation: Reduced emissions from:

☐ Energy access and power generation

☐ Low emission transport

☐ Buildings, cities and industries and appliances

☐ Forestry and land use

Adaptation: Increased resilience of:

☒ Most vulnerable people and communities

☒ Health and well-being, and food and water security

☐ Infrastructure and built environment

☐ Ecosystem and ecosystem services

A.6. Estimated mitigation impact (tCO2eq over lifespan)

N.A.

A.7. Estimated adaptation impact (number of direct beneficiaries and % of population)

6.4 million, 15.42% of population.

A.8. Indicative total project cost (GCF + co-finance)

Amount: USD __35__

A.9. Indicative GCF funding requested

Amount: USD __25___

A.10. Mark the type of financial instrument requested for the GCF funding

☒ Grant ☐ Reimbursable grant ☐ Guarantees ☐ Equity

☐ Subordinated loan ☐ Senior Loan ☐ Other: specify___________________

A.11. Estimated duration of project/ programme:

a) disbursement period: 6 years

b) repayment period, if applicable: Not applicable

A.12. Estimated project/ Programme lifespan

20 years

A.13. Is funding from the Project Preparation Facility requested?2

Yes ☒ No ☐

Other support received ☐ If so, by

who:

A.14. ESS category3

☐ A or I-1

☒ B or I-2

☐ C or I-3

A.15. Is the CN aligned with your accreditation standard?

Yes ☒ No ☐ A.16. Has the CN been shared with the NDA?

Yes ☒ No

☐

A.17. AMA signed (if submitted by AE)

Yes ☐ No ☐

If no, specify the status of AMA negotiations and expected date of signing:

A.18. Is the CN included in the Entity Work Programme?

Yes ☐ No

☐

1 Concept notes (or sections of) not marked as confidential may be published in accordance with the Information Disclosure Policy (Decision B.12/35) and the Review of the Initial Proposal Approval Process (Decision B.17/18). 2 See here for access to project preparation support request template and guidelines 3 Refer to the Fund’s environmental and social safeguards (Decision B.07/02)

PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE Template V.2.0

GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 2 OF 12

A.19. Project/Programme rationale, objectives and approach of programme/project (max 100 words)

The project will reduce vulnerabilities of communities to climate change related natural disasters in Uganda by enhancing national capacities to produce and deliver end-to-end, user centred climate information products and services (CIPS) and broaden their effective use till the last mile.

The implementation approach is to 1) strengthen National Neteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) to provide end-to-end, timely, actionable and targeted CIPS, and 2) broaden the effective use of CIPS in decision-making throughout Uganda by instituting procedures and building capacities of both intermediate and end-users.

UNDP will serve as the Accredited Entity and the Ministry of Water and Environment (MWE) will serve as the Executing Entity.

B. Project / Programme details (max. 8 pages)

B.1. Context and Baseline (max. 2 pages)

Climate Vulnerabilities and Impacts

Uganda has highly diverse climate information needs. It has 16 climatic zones1, 14 agro-ecological zones2, six bio-geographical zones and eight major drainage basins. Uganda’s population and economy remain largely reliant on agriculture and natural resources which are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Agriculture is mostly subsistence based and less than 1% of the land is under irrigation. Performance of agriculture has a direct impact on poverty levels as it employs 73% of the working population and over 74% households own land3.

The frequency of natural disasters in Uganda between 1990 and 2014 was the highest for floods (51%), drought (17.1%), storms and landslides (11.4% each) and earthquakes (8.6%)4.

Temperature increases: The frequency of hot days5 and average temperatures have increased particularly in the south-west of Uganda. Average annual minimum and maximum temperatures went up by ~0.5-1.2°C and ~0.6-0.9°C from the periods 1951-1980 and 1981-2010 respectively. Under high emissions scenarios, mean annual temperatures are projected to rise by ~4.7°C from 1990 to 2100 and by ~1.3°C even if global emissions decrease rapidly. Heat waves are expected to increase from 10 days to ~225 days on average in the high and 65 days in the decreased emission scenario6. Coupled with a decrease in the frequency of cold days, this has extended the range of vectors, increasing incidents of malaria in upland regions. Ice caps on the Rwenzori Mountains have shrunk and wildlife habitat has fragmented and degraded7,8 negatively impacting tourism.

Droughts are the most severe climate change related natural disaster in Uganda. There has been an increased frequency and longer duration of droughts leading to loss of crops and livestock. The 2010/11 drought caused an estimated loss of US$ 1.2 billion, about 7.5% of Uganda’s GDP that year9. Regional models suggest drying in most parts of Uganda in August and September by the end of the 21st century10 and a decline in surface water discharge in the Upper Nile Basin11. A decline in agricultural productivity is expected due to increased variability of the rainy season and drought. Models suggest a 20% reduction in maize yields in the north-western parts of the country12 and a reduction of 8.6% and 18.1% nationally in maize and beans respectively by 205013. A decreased suitability for important perennial cash crops such as tea and coffee14 due to increased temperatures and increase in pests is expected. Droughts have also affected water resources and hydro-power production.

Floods and landslides: According to the IPCC15, there is a high likelihood of flood impact on food systems, infrastructure and spread of water borne diseases. Estimated damages from floods in Kampala alone are between US$3.7 and 17.6 million by 2025 and between US$33.2 and 101.7 million by 2050 if adaptation measures are not implemented16. Climate variability and excessive rain events leading to flooding and landslides have severely affected lives and livelihoods of communities in regions such as Mt. Elgon in the past 20 years. About 31% of the total population in Uganda lives in mountainous areas and is potentially vulnerable to landslides17.

Thunderstorms and extreme weather events: Recent climate simulations for Lake Victoria suggest that warmer temperatures will make the lake a hotspot for night-time storms. By the end of the century, “superstorms" that presently occur once every 15 years18 will occur almost annually. Extreme rain events are projected to increase 2.4 times over the lake than the surrounding land. This will increase the annual estimate of 5,000 deaths among fisherman on the lake19.

National Priorities and Country Ownership

Uganda is a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement. Its commitments towards mitigation of climate change and increasing adaptation and resilience to impacts of climate change are articulated in the National Adaptation Programmes of Action20 and the report on Intended Nationally Determined Contributions21. Relevant national policies include the Vision 204022, the Second National Development Plan23 and the National Climate Change Policy7. Uganda has a National Policy for Disaster Preparedness and Management24 a ten-year Climate Smart Agriculture Programme2 and an Agriculture Sector Strategic Plan25 for climate change adaptation in the crucial agricultural sector. The enactment of the National Meteorological Authority Act, 201226 transformed the Meteorological Department into the Uganda National Meteorological Authority and gave effect to regional and international conventions and MoU's, including with the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). The GoU formalised mechanisms for integrating CIEWS with adaptation and disaster preparedness through the formation of a National Emergency Coordination and Operations Centre under the Department of Disaster Preparedness and Management. The National Emergency

PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE Template V.2.0

GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 3 OF 12

Coordination and Operations Centre coordinates the formulation and dissemination of early warnings and advisories between ministries, emergency services, multilateral agencies and international and national NGOs.

Barriers

There are serious barriers impeding the development of fully operational, sustainable, end-to-end CIEWS and in producing and disseminating credible, actionable CIPS. Consequently, early warnings to most high impact weather, water and climate events and advisories and services necessary to support climate change adaptation are not being formulated or delivered. There is a decoupling between the limited production of CIPS by NMHS and their effective use by government entities at all levels, NGO, individuals, and private enterprises. End users and first responders are not equipped to use CIPS to make decisions that would help adapt to climate change related natural hazards or take action to prepare for or to mitigate their impacts.

Insufficient and poor quality of hydro-meteorological data: A third of the districts in Uganda have operational weather stations, less than 10% of the 1000+ rain gauges are operational27 and under a third of the required meteorological and climatological data is transmitted to the Global Telecommunications Network of the WMO28. The network of automatic surface water level and ground water stations is inadequate for water resources monitoring or accurate drought early warning systems. Crucial components of many weather stations need repair or are missing. Most of the older equipment has not been calibrated, often for over two decades. Quality assurance and control (QA/QC) systems to identify and correct errors in observations are not used. Most historical weather records with Uganda National Meteorological Authority are not digitised. Manual observations remain offline, adding to the backlog of analogue data. “Traditional observation infrastructure” with manual data transmission and recording is preferred without considering the associated O&M costs.

Lack of local upper air and surface observations limits the accuracy of sub-synoptic and mesoscale analyses, warnings, and forecasts needed for decisions such as crop planting. Data and information from Earth Networks, an up-stream commercial data service for lightning location, surface observations, and forecast guidance, is only partially used. There is minimal integration of local surface and regional lightning data with satellite data which is essential for producing warnings of severe thunderstorms and flash floods. Forecasters do not evaluate the end-use and impacts of advisories, early warnings, or general forecasts. Procedures to verify, validate and receive feedback on warnings, forecasts, and advisories are non-existent.

Limited interpretation and analysis of climate information: Limited analytic capacities impede the use of available climate data. Weather stations and facilities of NMHS lack essential hardware, software, and trained personnel. For e.g. seasonal analysis and downscaling of global and regional climate model outputs at the ICPAC facility in Nairobi is limited to a few meteorologists. Focal Point Technical Officers appointed to the Inter-Agency Technical Committee of National Emergency Coordination and Operations Centre lack capacities to properly analyse climate information products. Software used by the Department of Water Resources Management lacks functionality for integrated water resources management, for automated generation of early warnings for (riverine) flood or for agricultural or hydrological droughts. Furthermore, Department of Water Resources Management does not use any satellite products which are a cost-effective source of high quality data. Available expertise and potential collaborations with local, regional and international partners who could assist production and dissemination of CIPS remains largely untapped. This includes GIS facilities at National Emergency Coordination and Operations Centre and long-term agreements for integrated water resources management and hydrologic early warning systems under the CIRDA project29.

Lack of user focus in development and packaging CIPS: Mechanisms for structured engagement of NMHS with users to inform CIPS design and packaging are missing. This prevents climate services from becoming user-centred, gender-disaggregated and locally relevant. Information needs of vulnerable groups30 as well as those of the public and the private sector are not addressed. Currently, advisories and early warnings are highly technical, gender agnostic and reliant on print and email. The limited capacity in NMHS to meet the growing need for specially tailored climate services for commercial users is creating a growing market for private weather services. This further undercuts the relevance, role and value of NMHS and is becoming barriers to mutually beneficial opportunities in public-private partnerships31.

Poor communication infrastructure and weak institutional arrangements for dissemination of climate services: Lack of communication infrastructure limits two-way communication within and between NMHS facilities at different locations and disaster management committees and Emergency Coordination and Operations Centres at district, sub-county and villages. Protocols and SOPs for coordinated action on advisories and early warnings are weak, particularly at the local government level. Duplication and inconsistencies in advisories and early warnings issued simultaneously by Uganda National Meteorological Authority and National Emergency Coordination and Operations Centre causes confusion and negatively impacts public perception of NMHS.

Lack of local capacities in use of CIEWS for on-ground decision making: Poor capacities of Disaster Management Committees at the district and sub-county level, poor delegation of tasks and ill-defined roles are a barrier to timely and effective response to disasters. Lack of resources including physical infrastructure and staff, and lack of capacities of first responders at sub-county emergency response centres remain major impediments in using CIPS to inform local adaptation action. Local NMHS staff report directly to the headquarters and have no formal mechanism to share information or assist nearby local government agencies. In many districts, available NMHS staff are not members of the district Disaster Management Committee. National ministries often have no links beyond a focal point at the district level, effectively isolating them from local extension workers.

PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE Template V.2.0

GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 4 OF 12

Excessive centralisation and lack of integration of CIEWS in decision making: Local governments lack operational flexibility in project implementation and emergency response as they rely on central ministries for funding. Both national and local government policies lack mechanisms to trigger release of funds and resources to disaster affected regions when early warnings or advisories are issued. Most past and current projects lack strategies for integrating CIEWS in decision making. Centralised approaches in climate information gathering and analysis exclude local agencies who house, operate and maintain the equipment. The consequent lack of ownership precludes meaningful local participation in data gathering, validation and feedback to NMHS

B.2. Project / Programme description (max. 3 pages)

Project Objective

To reduce vulnerabilities of communities to climate change related natural disasters in Uganda by enhancing national capacities to produce and deliver end-to-end, user centred CIPS and broaden their effective use till the last mile. This will involve two components; 1) strengthening national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHS) to provide end-to-end, timely, actionable and targeted CIPS, and 2) broadening the effective use of CIPS in decision-making throughout Uganda by instituting procedures and building capacities of both intermediate and end-users.

The project will target a critical need identified by the GoU for a fully operational, end-to-end CIEWS. The timely production and targeted delivery of credible CIPS tailored to user needs coupled with enhanced capacities in their effective use will reduce vulnerabilities of marginalized groups such as small-holder and subsistence farmers, herdsmen, fishermen, women, children, and the elderly. It will inform disaster preparedness and adaptation and mitigation action across sectors and increase the resilience of communities and economies at local, regional, and national levels.

Components and Activities

In output 1: Intermediary users32 will be identified and assisted in collaborating with the NMHS to formulate, develop and deliver climate services tailored to specific decision-maker and end-user needs. This will ensure strategic and optimal investments of GCF funds in equipment, infrastructure and training of technical and professional staff. It will reorient NMHS towards a demand driven public service which responds and adapts to user requirements. Facilities for data handling, communication and analysis at the National Emergency Coordination and Operations Centre will be improved and capacities of the Focal Point Technical Officers strengthened. A gender specialist will be engaged to ensure gender main-streaming and disaggregation in the production of climate services. This will transform the collection, processing and analysis32,33 of climate data to produce credible, timely, and actionable CIPS meeting user requirements across sectors generating appropriately tailored and packaged weather, water, and climate information as advisories and forecasts, alerts and early warnings.

Output 2: Communication channels, procedures, policies and protocols will be re-worked for both vertical and horizontal integration and decentralisation of CIEWS across government policies and sectors. Mechanisms will be instituted for delivery and feedback of climate information and separately for early warnings and advisories. Capacities and procedures at the level of first responders will be strengthened along with communications and emergency response infrastructure at Emergency Coordination and Operations Centres in disaster prone areas. Partnerships with other initiatives will be forged to build capacities of local, community based and civil society organisations, and to incorporate and build upon innovative strategies piloted and implemented elsewhere. Members of the district Disaster Management Committee will be designated for translation and localisation of climate advisories and early warnings into local languages to incorporate indigenous knowledge and practices and the local context.

The direct/measurable beneficiaries of the proposed project are 6.4 million Ugandans (15.42% of the population) who live in droughts, floods and landslide prone districts. This includes the 3.6 million exposed to drought, the one million affected by floods4. It also includes about 1.8 million Ugandans who are vulnerable to landslides34 and over 150,000 who are engaged in fishing35. Indirect beneficiaries include both government and non-governmental agencies engaged in disaster management and humanitarian support and their beneficiaries. The government and the private sector will benefit from long term planning, particularly in agriculture, infrastructure, health and natural resources management. The aviation, logistics, commercial agriculture, telecommunications, insurance and tourism industry will also benefit.

The proposed project requires an investment of 25 million USD over 5 years, ~50% of which will be for strengthening the hydro-meteorological (hydromet) network, data and capacities, while ~45% will be for capacity building, outreach and last-mile dissemination and use of CIPS. The remaining ~ 5% will used for project management, including regular external audits and evaluations of the NMHS.

Output 1: Strengthen collection, generation and interpretation of climate information to ensure the formulation of targeted, timely and detailed weather, climate, and hydrological forecasts, early warnings and advisories.

Activity 1.1: Upgrading and expanding the GoU national hydromet monitoring network.

State-of-the-art, low-maintenance and cost-effective equipment such as all-in-one automatic weather stations will be used to restore and enhance the surface observing network and extend it to cover the remaining 2/3rd of the districts. Automatic, autonomous, solar powered and telemetry capable ground water level and quality stations will replace antiquated units improving accuracies of observations while minimising O&M costs. Virtual surface water level stations based on satellite altimetry data will further reduce O&M costs by reducing reliance on in-situ observations. This will be combined with satellite based soil moisture and evapotranspiration observations for agricultural and hydrological drought monitoring and early warning. Modern equipment such as lightening location sensors will be optimally sited on cell towers for real time tracking,

PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE Template V.2.0

GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 5 OF 12

development, evolution and movement of hazardous thunderstorms. Data will be transmitted via cellular networks and integrated with satellite imagery in GIS based analyst and forecaster workstations. Regular O&M will be ensured by upgrading existing facilities and deploying mobile automated calibration laboratories with trained technicians. Private upstream data providers will be engaged where appropriate, to reduce costs of expanding the hydromet network, assist in data collection and explore avenues for marketing CIPS. Data collected by the rejuvenated networks will contribute to the GTS as per international agreements. A systematic preservation and digitisation of historical and manual data will be undertaken and archived in CLIMSOFT.

Activity 1.2: Strengthening capacities in analysis and validation of climate information.

Facilities at Uganda National Meteorological Authority, Department of Water Resources Management and National Emergency Coordination and Operations Centre and the number and capacities of Focal Point Technical Officers will be enhanced to deliver user-centred climate services across sectors. Weather forecasting and climate information product development will be improved by strengthening computational infrastructure and software to meet archival and processing needs and to facilitate use of big-data analytics and cloud computing. National capacities will be strengthened through increased investments in staff training, higher education and research collaborations with national, regional and international agencies. Mechanisms will be instituted for data QA/QC and technical evaluations and reviews of capacities of NMHS by experts in the field and a formal system for forecast verification will be put in place.

Activity 1.3: Enhancing user and private sector engagement in design of climate information products and services.

User needs for CIPS will be identified through regular and structured consultations by the NMHS with users both within the government and the private sector. Capacities in the NMHS will be enhanced to engage with users, identify how they are affected by hydromet processes and developing CIPS that meet their requirements. Mechanisms for co-design and development of climate services will be instituted to ensure user-centred and targeted formulation of CIPS. Two-way communication between users and NMHS will strengthen integration of local conditions and indigenous knowledge and practices with climate services. A gender and a social vulnerability expert will work closely with the NMHS to ensure advisories and early warnings are gender disaggregated and account for the differential impact of natural disasters on women and vulnerable groups. Citizen sensing initiatives will be launched in colleges, schools, agricultural cooperatives, NGOs and civil society organisations who will be engaged in using smart phones, low-cost open source micro-controllers and sensors to improve awareness and public participation while supplementing the hydromet network and restoring damaged equipment which would otherwise be discarded.

Activity 1.4: Enhancing dissemination of climate information products and services.

Access to climate services will be simplified and scaled up by providing a modern web-portal based delivery of CIPS in addition to conventional dissemination channels and voice driven services in local languages currently available in a few areas36. User friendly web interfaces and application programming interfaces for automated software based access will be set up providing users with near-real-time access to weather forecasts, early warnings and routine updates of advisories. The potential for providing small farmers with index insurance products will be explored. Sharing of climate information and products with regional and international partners will be strengthened. Public-private partnerships with cell phone companies, the media, and other enterprises will be formed to assist in the timely dissemination of CIPS to dispersed communities and individuals. A multi-disciplinary communications team will re-package advisories to suit different platforms and will collaborate with broadcasters and network/data providers and potential sponsors in the private sector. Technical bulletins will be simplified to facilitate translations and combined with educational and awareness activities helping to rejuvenate the sagging public perception of climate services in Uganda.

Output 2. Last mile delivery and effective use of tailored weather and climate-based early warning and advisories for planning and decision making across sectors, agencies and levels of government.

Activity 2.1: Strengthening use of climate services by first responders and end users.

Communication infrastructure, basic facilities and capacities of extension workers and staff will be rebuilt for the Disaster Management Committee and Emergency Coordination and Operations Centres at the district and sub-county levels. Standard operating procedures, communication chains and protocols will be established from the national to the district, sub-county and parish level. Training will be provided to all actors involved in the use of climate services to improve response to and monitoring of natural hazards. Innovative applications of ICT combined with GSM and internet based services, radio and television networks will be used to boost one and two-way communication between NMHS and end-users/first responders. This will be leveraged to institute transparent and routine assessments and feedback of field conditions and use of climate services37.

Activity 2.2: Localising and decentralising interpretation of climate services.

Staff from NMHS weather-stations will be appointed as ex-officio members of nearest district Disaster Management Committee and Emergency Coordination and Operations Centres to participate in meetings and assist in the interpretation of advisories and early warnings. Members of the district and sub-county Disaster Management Committee along with first responders at the sub-county and parish levels will be designated for translation, localisation and re-interpretation of climate advisories and early warnings. This will ensure climate services are accessible to end-users and incorporate indigenous knowledge and practices.37,38

Activity 2.3: Integrating climate information in development planning and execution of adaptation programmes at national and local government levels.

PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE Template V.2.0

GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 6 OF 12

A systematic and comprehensive integration of CIEWS in the decision-making process of relevant departments and as a cross cutting issue in government policy and programmes will be taken up. Reporting of the NMHS to the Inter Agency Technical Committee will be strengthened and MoUs and policy documents will be formulated and strengthened to ensure free flow of information between NMHS and users. CIEWS will be integrated with decision support tools and software packages through collaborations with on-going efforts and hiring additional resources. Capacities of on-ground staff from NGOs and civil society organisations will be built through targeted training programmes and workshops to use the dissemination tools more effectively.

Activity 2.4: Strengthening policies for last-mile communication and response to early warnings and advisories.

Policy measures will be instituted to strengthen the chain of command and reporting structures between line ministries and extension staff at the district level, specifically the departments of production, health, education and engineering. Mechanisms and SOPs will be instated wherein early warnings and advisories issued by National Emergency Coordination and Operations Centre trigger the release of funds to relevant regions and sectors in the local government for disaster response. The potential for increasing allocations from relevant line ministries in the national government in response to early warnings and advisories and diversifying sources of revenue for local-government agencies involved in emergency response will be explored.

Implementation Arrangements

In order to strengthen the regulatory framework and policies the project will establish mechanisms for regular monitoring and evaluation of CIEWS in Uganda by external experts drawn from regional and international bodies. Formulation and formalization of pending agreements and MoUs between NMHS and users both within other government ministries and departments as well as private agencies will be completed. The project will be implemented following UNDP’s National Implementation Modality, according to the Standard Basic Assistance Agreement between UNDP and the GoU, the Country Programme Action Plan, and as policies and procedures outlined in the UNDP Programme and Operations Policies and Procedures. The Implementing Partner for this project is the MWE. The MWE is accountable to UNDP for managing the project, including the monitoring and evaluation of project interventions, achieving project outcomes, and for the effective use of UNDP resources. The following parties have entered into agreements with MWE to assist in successfully delivering project outcomes and are directly accountable to the MWE as outlined in the terms of their agreement: 1) Uganda National Meteorological Authority – MWE. 2) Department of Water Resources Management – MWE. 3) Department of Disaster Preparedness and Management – OPM. 4) National Agricultural Research Organisation (NARO) – Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF). 5) Ministry of Health (MoH). 6) Ministry of Local Government (MoLG). 7) Ministry of Information, Communications Technology and National Guidance (MoICT) - Uganda Communications Commission (UCC). 8) Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MoSTI) - Uganda National Council for Science and Technology (UNCST). The Project Board is comprised of the following organisations: 1) MWE-Uganda National Meteorological Authority. 2) MWE-Department of Water Resources Management. 3) OPM-DRDPM. 4) MAAIF-NARO. 5) MOH. 6) MoLG. 7) UNDP. 8) MoSTI–UNCST, 9) MoICT - UCC and 10) Ministry of Economic Planning and Development.

The Project Board is responsible for making, by consensus, management decisions when guidance is required by the Project Manager. Project Board decisions will be made in accordance with standards that shall ensure management for development results, best value money, fairness, integrity, transparency and effective international competition. In case a consensus cannot be reached within the Board, final decision shall rest with the UNDP Programme Manager. The Project Board will meet monthly. The Project Manager will run the project on a day-to-day basis on behalf of MWE within the constraints laid down by the Project Board. The Project Manager function will end when the final project terminal evaluation report and other documentation required by the GCF and UNDP, has been completed and submitted to UNDP. The Project Manager is responsible for day-to-day management and decision-making for the project. The Project Manager’s prime responsibility is to ensure that the project produces the results specified in the project document, to the required standard of quality and within the specified constraints of time and cost.

Key financial and operational risks and mitigation measures

Category Risk Mitigation measures

Financial O&M costs of the hydro-meteorological network cannot be sustained by the RoU.

The GoU will provide a written commitment for co-financing this proposal which covers O&M costs.

Optimal use of PPP and upstream data providers through service contracts which cover O&M and data processing.

Operational Changing requirements of the government and private sector not met by NMHS.

Quantitative assessment tools such as the USAID Sustainable CIS project tool54 used to evaluate NMHS capacities to and delivery of user requirements on a regular basis as part of QA/QC procedures.

Operational CIPS not accessible to end-users, particularly vulnerable groups due to limited access and linguistic barriers.

Gender and communication experts engaged to ensure CIPS are geared towards women and indigenous groups.

Multiple communication channels including innovative use of radio, cell phones and community knowledge workers.

Operational Damage to hydro-meteorological equipment by natural wear/tear, wildlife and vandals.

Installation of equipment in protected locations.

Use of inexpensive solid state and robust equipment such as all in one automatic weather stations and lightening sensor networks.

PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE Template V.2.0

GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 7 OF 12

Use of telemetry as well as on-site data archival to ensure data is not lost in case of damage to equipment.

Operational Trained staff are deputed, transferred or leave their positions creating a capacity gap.

Training is provided to only those staff who have long term positions and who give undertaking to continue work for a minimum specified period before seeking transfer.

Mechanisms for staff to provide training to colleagues.

Multiple staff trained to ensure redundancy.

Operational Data generated is not shared with stakeholders

Open data policy based on WMO resolution 4055 to ensure data for public good is made accessible.

Use of automated systems for archival and sharing of data between intermediate users in government and other partner institutes.

MoU established between NMHS and users to ensure unfettered access to relevant data.

Operational Disturbance to indigenous communities on account of hydro-meteorological instrumentation.

Explicit permissions and prior, informed consent will be obtained prior to any installation on community or private lands.

Sites located on government lands or with pre-existing installations such as cell towers will be given preference.

Operational Impacts on wildlife and the environment on account of hydromet instrumentation.

Hydromet equipment causes minimal pollution or disturbance. It requires limited space and is quiet or completely silent. Modern installations are solar powered and largely autonomous.

B.3. Expected project results aligned with the GCF investment criteria (max. 3 pages)

Expected Impact

The project is expected to increase preparedness to drought, heat-waves and facilitate better adaptation to reduced and variable rainfall for approximately 8.6% of the population which includes farmers, pastoral and agro-pastoral communities largely in the "cattle corridor". It will increase the preparedness to floods amongst a million Ugandans (2.4%) living in the flood prone regions around lakes and rivers which cover nearly 17% of the countries area. Improved early warnings of thunderstorms will greatly benefit about 150,000 fishermen, many of who operate in the great lakes, and will reduce the loss of lives which is presently estimated at 5,000 per annum. The project will help reduce vulnerabilities of the 1.8 million Ugandans who reside in mountainous regions and are exposed to risks of prolonged rainfall leading to landslides.

Fundamental and long-term improvements in the collection, production and delivery of CIEWS in Uganda will be made. GCF resources will be invested in ensuring that the latest technologies and innovations in hydromet observing technologies are used to transform the way Uganda monitors the weather, water, and climate. The use of new, cost effective technologies such as lightning locations sensors or cell phone tower signal analysis39 combined with increased use of satellite data will be expanded to transform Uganda National Meteorological Authority and Department of Water Resources Management's observing capacity. More emphasis will also be given to budgeting and staffing for operation and maintenance of systems. Advanced, mobile and laboratory based calibration systems will be pressed into service and broken-down hardware revived using low cost micro-controllers and sensors40. Further, the project will unlock the potential to utilise historical records hitherto unavailable for analysis in combination with real-time datasets through completing the transition to the WMO-compliant CLIMIS data management system.

Innovative technologies and analytical tools leveraging advances in big-data analytics will be expanded and maintained to improve the accuracy and resolution of CIPS. Collaborations with renowned research and development agencies in the field will be further strengthened and new ones forged to ensure the adoption of rapidly evolving technologies and techniques in gathering and analysing climate information. Rigorous monitoring and assessment schedules will be instituted involving independent teams comprised of national and regional agencies. Scientists and technical staff from Uganda National Meteorological Authority, Department of Water Resources Management, National Emergency Coordination and Operations Centre and members of the AITC will be trained in the use of state of the art software and models for both short and long-term programmes for capacity development.

The improved forecasting ability will be combined with strategic user needs-centred design41 and sustained and reliable delivery of high quality application-based climate products and services42 to boost user confidence. Packaging and delivery of climate services across the last mile will leverage technological advances and the expanding cell phone networks, popular radio and television channels and the growing use of social media and feature phone technology.

The project will revitalise the reach and usage of climate services in Uganda. Rapport between NMHS with communities will be built through citizen sensing initiatives. Systems for feedback from beneficiaries on quality and usability of the CIPS will be put in place along with a formal forecast verification system. State of the art, cloud-based applications with web-enabled interfaces will be made operational for two-way communication to provide near-real time data, dynamic advisories and early warnings to mobile cell phones, smart phones and internet users36,43–45. Cell phone based technologies will be put to use for voice, SMS and data networks based transmission for data collection and CIPS dissemination.

PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE Template V.2.0

GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 8 OF 12

Opportunities in commercialisation of climate services will be fully exploited by focussing on high growth and high volume sectors46–48 such as aviation, logistics and commercial agriculture. The project will strengthen public-private partnerships and long-term service agreements and contracts with upstream and downstream data providers, data and voice carriers.

Institutional mechanisms (MoUs, agreements) will be put in place to strengthen intra and inter-agency communications and free flow of data and information between NMHS and all stakeholders. New, streamlined SOPs between central agencies and local government departments and extension workers will be established, removing the current disconnect between national and local-government agencies.

Active engagement with on-ground local government extension staff in agriculture and water resource management, and emergency management personnel, charged with managing field equipment, validation of forecasts and providing ground conditions will democratise the analysis of climate information. These ground staff will be empowered through strengthening of capacities and resources, creating a sense of ownership of the data and transforming the overly centralised system of the current CIEWS into a participatory process.

Paradigm Shift Potential

The focus of this project is the effective use of CIPS to assist decision making and planning. This will reduce vulnerabilities from and support adaptation to climate change induced natural hazards. A paradigm shift from a centralised, top-down to a user-centred and application-based approach will make CIPS more credible, relevant, and accessible to end-users. This is a departure from business as usual approach and will fundamentally alter the way NHMS operate and serve their country, by making them key development and climate adaptation actors. Sustaining O&M of the hydromet network will be based on broadening the clientèle for CIEWS in the government and private sector. A shift towards delivery of targeted products to users and expansion of private sector engagements will enable Uganda National Meteorological Authority to ensure necessary support from the government for O&M and assist cost recovery of commercial services.

Contribution to climate-resilient development pathways

The delivery of user-targeted CIPS will rapidly expand the clientèle and re-position NMHS as providers of climate services that are an integral part of planning and decision support for climate-resilient development in both the public and private sector. This project will learn from and build and consolidate upon work piloted under past and ongoing initiatives. It will leverage existing policy frameworks and implement recommendations from assessments and studies assessing hydromet networks27, forecast operations, SOPs for CIEWS and the production and delivery of tailored CIPS, and business plans46

and strategies47 for marketing CIPS.

Private sector partnerships will be strategically utilised to save costs and take advantage of new technologies and analytic expertise in the gathering and analysis of climate information replicating the positive experiences from the NMHS of Nigeria and South Africa49. Costs of dissemination of climate services to the last mile will be reduced through raising advertising revenues with private television and radio stations and by extending innovative climate service delivery pioneered in Uganda by HNI, a NGO and Airtel, a cellular network36. Collaborative business models with upstream data provides such as TAHMO and Earth Networks will be explored for niche commercial sectors such as aviation, tourism, commercial agriculture and logistics. Monetisation of climate services will be done in niche commercial markets based on a cost recovery model as demonstrated in Nigeria. Innovative strategies such as packaging free subscriptions to a voice or SMS based climate services with inputs will be used for high volume-low value sectors such as agriculture.

Potential for learning and knowledge sharing

A dynamic and collaborative research effort in meteorology, forecasting and modelling will fuel innovations and ensure that NMHS in Uganda continue to use cutting edge technologies and deliver state of the art CIPS across sectors. The enormous potential offered by citizen sensing initiatives involving the use of smart phones, inexpensive micro-controllers, sensors and loggers will be fully tapped to improve the density and reach of hydromet networks and to build a close rapport between NMHS, community based organizations and educational institutes.

The project will maximize the potential for knowledge and learning through a three pronged strategy of i) supporting the training and capacity building of staff from NMHS and local-government agencies by engaging educational institutes as well as NMHS staff based at district stations ii) ensuring opportunities for higher education in relevant fields through national and international scholarships for long term NMHS staff and institutional funding to relevant research departments and iii) floating competitive research grants in relevant areas for collaborative projects which involve multidisciplinary teams from national, regional and international agencies. Furthermore, awareness programs through public broadcasts and citizen sensing initiatives with colleges, schools, agricultural cooperatives, NGOs and civil society organizations will be undertaken.

Contribution to the creation of an enabling environment, regulatory framework and policies

The project will create an enabling environment which facilitates the use of CIEWS for decision making in on-ground adaptation through i) reviving and strengthening communications between NMHS and local-government agencies and first responders down to the sub-county and parish level, ii) building capacities of district, sub-county and village level disaster management committees as well as community based organization through regular training programmes and iii) strengthening emergency operations centres and the district and sub-county level by restoring communications and infrastructure.

In order to strengthen the regulatory framework and policies the project will establish mechanisms for regular monitoring and evaluation of CIEWS in Uganda by external experts drawn from regional and international bodies. Formulation and formalization of pending agreements between NMHS and users both within other government ministries and departments as well as private agencies will be undertaken.

PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE Template V.2.0

GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 9 OF 12

Policies will be put in place to ensure i) line ministries and National Emergency Coordination and Operations Centre at the national level have accountable staff at the local government level down to the extension worker or LC3; ii) technical staff from Uganda National Meteorological Authority are ex-officio members of relevant Disaster Management Committees and actively participate in meetings and take up capacity building of relevant members of these committees; iii) early warnings and advisories automatically trigger the release of funds and resources for emergency and adaptation to relevant regions.

Country Ownership

The two outputs and associated activities are aligned with the four priority areas of the Global Framework for Climate Services and seek to operationalise its five component50 within existing policies and priorities of the GoU. The proposed project aligns with and contributes to Uganda’s priorities for climate resilient development and strategies and plans. This includes NAPA submitted in 2007 and the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions submitted more recently. The project supports important national policies including the Vision 2040 and the Second National Development Plan. It is closely aligned with the National Climate Change Policy and the National Policy for Disaster Preparedness and Management which provide the institutional framework within which the project will operate. The Uganda National Meteorological Authority Act provides and enabling environment for modernizing CIEWS and demonstrates Uganda’s commitments to support CIEWS as an integral component of disaster preparedness and management.

Uganda has a consistent track record of supporting climate change adaptation and mitigation. Both the national and the local governments have partnered with a number of international agencies on projects piloting and promoting climate change adaptation in various sectors. Government agencies have been party to public-private partnerships and service agreements with up-stream data providers such as Earth Networks and downstream mobile networks such as Airtel, for gathering and dissemination of climate information and services. Uganda National Meteorological Authority is actively working on refining the business model and service portfolio for the aviation industry and is exploring opportunities in providing customized services to commercial agriculture – all of which provide a precedent and important learning for the project to build on. Uganda’s is an active participant in a multi-country programme led by the UNDP called Climate Information for Resilient Development in Africa. This Global Environment Facility, Least Developed Country Fund supported project strengthens the capacity of partner countries, to develop and operate modern climate information and early warning systems. This has played a significant role in guiding the country strategy in rebuilding Uganda’s CIEWS.

Needs of the recipient

Between the period of 1987 and 2010 there have been: i) six major droughts affecting 3,431,000 persons and claiming 194 lives; ii) three major floods affecting 1,221,545 and claiming a hundred lives. iii) eight epidemics affecting 100,000 and claiming 935 lives, mostly from water borne diseases in the flood prone areas and iv) four major landslides affecting 8,500 and claiming 308 lives24 in Uganda. There is a loss of 5,000 fishermen annually due to drowning caused by thunderstorms and extreme rain events in Lake Victoria alone.

The GoU requires approximately US$ 258 million, approximately 1.6% of its annual GDP per annum over the next decade and a half to address climate change concerns. However, the total expenditure on climate change-relevant actions is well below 1% of the GDP51. Funding available to local governments has declined from 23% in 2005/06 to 16% in 2011/12. This severely constrains their capacities to implement adaptations programs. Given the huge development challenges and the ongoing humanitarian crisis with cross border refugees, CIEWS is often overlooked during budgetary allocations both by the government and by external development and aid agencies.

Uganda’s reliance on regional partners for developing forecasts and advisories needs to reduce in order to make CIEWS respond to local needs. Capacities of technical staff who manage weather stations and are part of extension services are severely limited putting severe constraints on O&M and quality of services provided to end users.

Stakeholder Engagement in Project Design

This concept note is based on extensive stakeholder engagements with end users and first responders as well as distr ict and national government agencies, civil society organisations, NGOs and private sector service providers. Over 30 different meetings and discussions have been held over a period of three and half months towards preparation of this document. Field visits were made to 16 districts, including Kampala for a geographical representation in stakeholder engagements. The consultations included group discussions, one-on-one interviews and presentations of the proposal concept to get focussed feedback from a spectrum of stakeholders.

A detailed stakeholder engagement plan will be developed and implemented during the feasibility study for this project. An extensive and in-depth consultation with stakeholders will be taken up keeping in mind differential vulnerabilities of women and indigenous groups from different climatic and agro-ecological zones. The consultation will ensure engagements with communities affected by the major climate induced hazards from different regions of the country. This will be based on the GCF environmental and social safeguards and stakeholder consultation guidelines. It will lead to the development of a detailed report and methodological framework for future engagements with stakeholders.

C. Indicative financing / Cost information (max. 3 pages)

C.1. Financing by components (max ½ page)

Component Indicative cost GCF financing Co-financing

PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE Template V.2.0

GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 10 OF 12

(USD) Amount

(USD)

Financial Instrument

Amount

(USD)

Financial Instrument

Name of Institutions

Output 1 19 14 Grant 5 Grant GoU and UNDP

Output 2 16 11 Grant 5 Grant GoU and UNDP

Indicative total cost (USD)

35 25 10

C.2. Justification of GCF funding request (max 1 page)

Investments in the generation and effective use of CIPS are reported to have a highly positive rate of return provided there is a fully functional CIEWS utilised as a public service across sectors and regions leading to reduced losses to lives, livelihoods and infrastructure52. This, however, requires a nationwide enhancement of hydro-meteorological data gathering, processing, analysis and dissemination in conjunction with a comprehensive strengthening of capacities to utilise CIPS effectively based on international best practices. The substantial funds needed for this transformation and strengthening of CIEWS and their use are not presently available either in the public or private sector within Uganda.

Furthermore, the returns from the effective use of CIPS are highly dispersed, difficult to quantify and cannot be monetised as the vast majority of the users in least developed countries such as Uganda are from poor, subsistence based, vulnerable communities. This does not preclude the commercialisation of climate services in niche areas within the largely underdeveloped market for such services in Uganda. Among these niche markets are aviation, commercial agriculture, tourism and logistics. However, tapping these markets to the fullest can only partially recover costs of operations within the specific niche service. Public private partnerships can also improve efficiency and the reach to the last mile allow NMHS to leverage latest technologies and analytics which improve their sustainability once the basic infrastructure and capacities for a functional CIEWS are in place. This was demonstrated in Nigeria and South Africa during the recent AMCOMET forum in Addis Ababa in September 201749.

There are no alternative sources for funding a comprehensive intervention that is needed in the restoration of CIEWS to meet CIPS needs in Uganda. Financial resources that have been raised thus far are for small pilot scale initiatives and/or very specific regions. Accurate, sub-synoptic, meso-scale predictions of weather events and early warnings however require a nationwide hydromet network with sufficiently dense (spatially and temporally) observations of both surface and upper atmospheric parameters. Existing and proposed initiatives in both the public and private domain tend to be spatially constrained and to prioritise weather data that meets niche requirements. For example, soil moisture levels to optimise watering cycles on commercial farms, or water level measurements at specific locations. Even complete access to such data cannot meet the requirements of NMHS. Other initiatives and funding sources will help is the piloting of new techniques which overcome challenges in dissemination of CIPS to the end user. The proposed project will therefore consolidate the lessons learned and seek to scale up successful piloted initiatives and projects.

According to the eighth review of Uganda’s economic performance under the Policy Support Instrument by the IMF53, Uganda's economy has slowed owing to drought in the Horn of Africa, regional conflict, and slow credit growth. Debt management in Uganda needs to be improved according to the report and its reliance on central bank financing needs to be reduced. The report predicts a decline in social spending in real terms and raises concerns about the projected debt trajectory and an increase in public debt. The report advocates strong expenditure controls and revenue generation through strengthening tax regimes and compliance.

There are severe fiscal constraints on the GoU which are exacerbated by the ongoing drought and refugee crises and combined with an increased pace of public debt accumulation. There are concerns about food security, decreased social spending and a projected deterioration of the net international investment position in the medium term. Given these constraints and the fundamentally non-revenue generating nature of the project, this is a fit case for consideration as a grant from the GCF.

C.3. Sustainability and replicability of the project (exit strategy) (max. 1 page)

Sustainability of CIEWS in Uganda will hinge upon its relevance to the government for supporting decisions in various sectors and the sense of ownership that the government and communities have towards the NMHS. A firm and detailed commitment from the GoU for operation and maintenance of the equipment along with continued support through salary and benefits to staff engaged in NMHS and implementation of adaptation programs of the local governments is therefore justified. Letters of commitment to this end will be provided by the GoU.

Uganda’s growing economy provides increasing opportunities to commercialise CIEWS in niche areas, allowing for a partial

recovery of costs. A deepening and strengthening of engagements with the private sector both through public-private partnerships and targeted sales of climate services will be explored. This is expected to help recover costs from provision of climate services to certain sectors such as aviation, logistics, commercial agriculture and infrastructure. Private engagement could be used to reduce the costs and improve the reach of CIPS to end users. Other development initiatives launched by multilateral agencies and NGOs will provide incremental but important support to this initiative through testing and piloting of new technologies and approaches in the gathering of climate information and dissemination of CIPS.

PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE Template V.2.0

GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 11 OF 12

The return of investments in CIEWS has been estimated to be between 4 and 36 fold, largely due to the large scale social and economic benefits from protection of life, livelihoods, services and infrastructure52. Restoring CIEWS and ensuring it plays an important part in decision support for adaptation will have its most prominent impact on the agricultural sector. Timely and accurate early warnings and advisories are expected to significantly reduce losses due to drought, such as during 2010/11 where an estimated US$ 1.2 billion was lost, equivalent of 7.5% of Uganda’s GDP in 20109. They will help reduce losses in agriculture by forewarning farmers and livestock owners about onset or delay in rains. Analysis of patterns in extreme weather events will reduce loss of life of fishermen, it will help engineers incorporate design safeguards for both public and private infrastructure. It will reduce loss of life to disease and help prevent epidemics by allowing time to prepare for medical interventions in regions likely to face an increase in water borne and vector transmitted diseases. Improved climate services will also improve safety and reduce losses in sectors such as aviation and logistics. Conservation efforts would be assisted in preparing for eventualities such as forest fires and the tourism industry through better forecasts and anticipation of extreme events. Gender disaggregated climate services will ensure that advisories and early warnings account for the disadvantages that women face in terms of social and cultural norms and practices which often constrain their access to resources, mobility and assets making them more vulnerable, especially during emergencies.

C.4 Engagement among the NDA, AE, and/or other relevant stakeholders in the country (max ½ page)

Representatives of government agencies and authorities from both national and local-government, multilateral agencies and technical and field based staff from Uganda National Meteorological Authority and district level line departments were met. This included participation in a meeting of the National Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction to better understand the nature of discussions and procedures followed for identifying critical hazards and formulating advisories and early warnings. These interactions with stakeholders provided valuable insights into challenges faced by the NMHS in the O&M of the hydromet network at different levels, from single observation units to synoptic stations and specialised aviation related observations. Limitations and opportunities in the analysis of hydromet data and development of early warnings and forecasts were discussed. First-hand accounts of challenges they faced were provided by first responders met in district offices as well as staff at National Emergency Coordination and Operations Centre in formulation and dissemination of advisories. Interactions with NGOs working on innovative ways to supplement hydromet data and improve dissemination of early warnings and advisories provided a better understanding of the constraints at the policy level.

Members of civil society organisations including farmer associations and women organisations were met to understand challenges in accessing and using CIPS for decision making. Interactions with private sector organisations involved in upstream data provision as well as dissemination provided valuable insights into opportunities and challenges in public-private partnerships and commercialisation of CIPS in Uganda.

The AMCOMET Africa Hydromet Forum at Addis Ababa49 was also attended, which helped further align the document with regional and international policies. A number of important lessons were learned and incorporated from interactions with members of international and regional agencies such as the World Bank, WMO and ICPAC. Some unique approaches to public-private partnerships followed by NMHS from other countries such as Nigeria and innovations in technology and monitoring frameworks such as the TAHMO led initiatives and the USAID Sustainable CIS Project were also incorporated. A cross sectoral view of challenges and opportunities of using CIEWS to inform on-ground action was developed on this basis. Repeated presentations of findings during workshops and meetings with stakeholders were conducted to ensure their priorities were adequately reflected in the document.

D. Supporting documents submitted (OPTIONAL)

☒ Map indicating the location of the project/programme

☒ Diagram of the theory of change

☐ Financial Model

☒ Pre-feasibility Study

☐ Evaluation Report of previous project

Self-awareness check boxes

PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE Template V.2.0

GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 12 OF 12

Are you aware that the full Funding Proposal and Annexes will require these documents? Yes ☒ No ☐

• Feasibility Study

• Environmental and social impact assessment or environmental and social management framework

• Stakeholder consultations at national and project level implementation including with indigenous

people if relevant

• Gender assessment and action plan

• Operations and maintenance plan if relevant

• Loan or grant operation manual as appropriate

• Co-financing commitment letters

Are you aware that a funding proposal from an accredited entity without a signed AMA will be reviewed but

not sent to the Board for consideration? Yes ☒ No ☐