Integrating Climate Change Concern into Sustainable Development Strategy-

A Case Study of China

Ying ChenResearch Centre for Sustainable Development (RCSD)

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)

International Workshop on Climate Change and Sustainable Development

7-8 April, 2006, New Delhi, India

Outline

Climate change and it impacts in China

Energy, mitigation and sustainable development in ChinaChallengesNew goalsPolicies & measuresEffectiveness & potentials

Climate is Changing and Impacts are unevenly felt.

Changes of annual average temperature in China (1951-2001)

Changes of annual rainfall in China (1956-2002)

Adverse impacts of climate change on natural and human systems

Land degradation Biodiversity losses Increase of weather-related disasters,

particularly floods and droughts Decreased water availability Reduction in potential crop yields Coastal zones and marine systems Increase in the risks for human settlements

and human health Increased energy demand for space cooling

Economic losses resulted from weather-related disasters (1949-2004)

Eco

no

mic

lo

sses

(b

illi

on

RM

B)

300

250

200

100

150

50

Flood, August 1999

Nanning airport, Guangxi, 2001

Wuzhou,Guangxi, 2 July 2005 Heilongjiang, 11 June 2005

Houses collapsing in flood Aug. 1999

Drought in Hainan province

Water pollution in Yellow River

Typhoon, July 2005, in Zhejiang province

Summer of 2005, in Nanjing, Jiangsu province

Access to safety drinking water

These impacts are results of both climatic and non-climatic factors, which are generally difficult to quantify.

Assessment methodology and tools have to be improved to get a better understanding.

Adaptation is a necessary strategy at all level. There is an urgent need for developing countries to

build adaptive capacity. Some autonomous adaptation measures have been

demonstrated effective. More efforts and necessary resources needed to

build adaptive .

Building adaptive capacity

Energy, Mitigation and Sustainable Development

Great Challenges China is in a accelerated process of industrialization and urbaniza

tion, shifting from labour-intensive to capital intensive phases.

The energy demand has surged since 2002 when a new round of i

nvestment-driven economic growth began.

The energy mix dominated by coal could not be shifted.

Although currently the energy consumption and emission per cap

ita are lower than world average level, China will loss the advanta

ges soon.

With increase of oil imported (40% in 2004), energy security conc

ern is growing.

Air pollution and acid rain are still sever environmental problems.

Energy intensity (tce/10000yuan) has decreased by 45% within 1990-2004 but increased since 2002

2.89 2.792.57

2.42.26 2.18 2.11

1.921.71

1.6 1.51 1.47 1.45 1.5 1.58

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5Equivalent to 700 Mtce of Energy saving, 1050 tons SO2 and 440 MtC emissi

ons reduction

GDP is Calculated with comparable price in 2000;

Increases of energy consumption, emissions, population and GDP (1990-2003)

World China EU15 JapanOther Asian

countriesUS Africa

PE（ PJ) 8296322167

(1/4)8435 3005 19430 14786 6848

GHGs emissions

(MtCO2)4247.6

1463.4

(1/3)196.1 188.6 1063.1 886.8 215.2

Population growth

(million)1022.3

153.2

(1/7)16.8 4.1 414.2 40.9 225.3

GDP

(b$2000)9523.5

962.5

(1/10)1816.9 768.3 791.5 3275.0 195.5

Distribution of Acid rain areasFailed to achieve the goal of 20% reduction by 2005 blow the level of 2000, set up by the Tenth Five-year Plan

Well known recipes

Conservation Renewables Fuel switching Deployment and transfer of existing

technologies Development of new technologies

Energy Intensity of Selected Energy-Intensive Products (1990-2004)

Unit 1990 2004Reduced

(%)

Coal burned for power generation

g/kwh 427 376 11.9

Comparable energy consumption of Steel

kgce/t 997 702 29.6

Comparable energy consumption of cement

kgce/t 201 157 21.9

Comprehensive energy consumption of Ethene

kgce/t 1580 1004 36.5

Comprehensive energy consumption of ammonia

synthesis (large scale)kgce/t 1343 1184 11.8

National mid to long-term energy conservation plan (issued in Nov. 2004)

To reduce energy intensity from 2.68 tce in 2002(1990 price) to 2.25 tce/10000 yuan by 2010, energy saving rate 2.2% per year, and further to 1.54 tce/10000 yuan by 2020, energy saving rate 3% per year;

Specific energy saving targets for • main energy intensive products• main energy-consuming equipment • Energy management system

Priority sectors• Industry, transport, buildings for commercial and r

esidential use

Selected Key Energy Saving Projects

These projects will

produce 240 Mtce energy

savings potentials.

Oil saving and alternatives

CHP

Green Lighting

Government energy saving

Waste heat recycling

Monitoring and technical service

The 11th Five-year Plan (2006-2010)

Plan to reduce energy intensity 20% below 2005 level by 2010;

Controlling CO2 emissions is for the first time specified as one of the tasks for the country over the next 5 years.

Top 1000 Program To monitor and guide 1010 large energy users selected from 9 sectors

for energy efficiency improvement in 2004, each of them consumed over 0.18 Mtce and consumed 670 Mtce

in total, 48% of industrial and 34% of the primary energy consumption in China.

Series PAMs are under considerations including providing economic incentives

262

75

58

128101

240

9722 25

iron and steel

non-ferrous metal

coal

power

petro.and petrochem.

chemicals

construction materials

texitile

paper

Renewables development and nuclear power

Over 60,000 small scale hydropower stations in

rural area

26 windfarms, 375MWe in 2000

Eco-building design and demonstration

Law of Renewable Energy issued in Jan. 2005 Plan to increase the share of renewables in energy mix from the cu

rrent 7% to 10% by 2010 and to 15% by 2020. Nuclear power is also an option, expected to reach 4% of electricit

y generation by 2025.

A nation wide comprehensive campaign:building a resource-efficient and

environment-friendly society

Multi-stakeholders ParticipationGovernment, taking a leading role Industry: great potentials to be achieved NGOs: initiating projects advocating conservation Individuals: taking actions in daily life and

exchanging experiencesThe media: raising public awareness

NGOs: 26 Energy Saving ℃Action for Air Conditioner

3R- Reduction, Reuse and Recycling

waste Food

One-off consumables in hotel

over-packed moon cake

Clean Development Fund (CDF)-the first carbon-driven fund in China

Sources: charges on CERs from CDM projects, particularly HFC-23 projects 65% to be charged;

Objectives: helping national wide actions to address climate change including,research and training for capacity buildingMitigation & AdaptationFacilitating preparation of CDM project;

A long way to go…

International cooperation is of great importance to integrate climate change concerns into sustainable development strategyCapital assistance Technology transfer and cooperation Institutional capacity building, including policy

instruments, perception, etc.

Implications of irreversibility of large investment and infrastructure construction