Integrated Modeling of Land Use and Land Cover Change · Integrated Modeling of Land Use and Land...
Transcript of Integrated Modeling of Land Use and Land Cover Change · Integrated Modeling of Land Use and Land...
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Integrated Modeling of Land Use and Land Cover ChangeJennifer KochDepartment of Geography and Environmental Sustainabi l i tyThe Univers ity of Oklahoma
Monica Dorn ing , Ross Meentemeyer, Doug la s Shoema kerCenter for Geospat ia l A na ly t i csN or th Ca ro l ina S tate Un ivers i ty
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Overarching Question
Land-use and land-cover change modelArtificial representations of interactions in the land-use system
◦ Analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics
◦ Evaluate future development
◦ Test hypotheses
Methods◦ Modelling and simulation
◦ Scenario exercise / alternative futures analyses
Sustainable natural resource management
How do land management decisions affect terrestrial ecosystems?
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Urbanization
Grimm, N. et al. 2008. Global change and the ecology of cities. Science 319(5864): 756.
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Charlotte, NCObserved Patterns – 1986 Forest & Farmland
Developed LandWaterCharlotte
93%
5% 2%
Meentemeyer et al. 2013. FUTURES: Multilevel simulations of emerging urban-rural landscape structure using a patch-growing algorithm. Annals of the Association of American Geographers
0 20 4010 Km
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Charlotte, NCObserved Patterns – 1996
82%
16%2%
0 20 4010 Km
Forest & FarmlandDeveloped LandWaterCharlotte
Meentemeyer et al. 2013. FUTURES: Multilevel simulations of emerging urban-rural landscape structure using a patch-growing algorithm. Annals of the Association of American Geographers
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Charlotte, NCObserved Patterns – 2006
74%
2%24%
Forest & FarmlandDeveloped LandWaterCharlotte
0 20 4010 Km
Meentemeyer et al. 2013. FUTURES: Multilevel simulations of emerging urban-rural landscape structure using a patch-growing algorithm. Annals of the Association of American Geographers
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Charlanta Mega-region
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Objectives1. Simulate urbanization patterns under different conservation based planning scenarios
2. Assess resulting impacts to different conservation planning goals
Dorning, M.A.; Koch, J.; Shoemaker, D.A.; Meentemeyer R.K. (in review) Simulating urbanization scenarios reveals tradeoffs between conservation planning strategies. Landscape and Urban Planning.
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Conservation Planning Goals1. Protect Priority Resources
NCWRC. 2013. Green growth toolbox handbook. http://www.ncwildlife.org/Conserving/Programs/GreenGrowthToolbox.aspx
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1. Protect Priority Resources
Conservation Planning Goals
NCWRC. 2013. Green growth toolbox handbook. http://www.ncwildlife.org/Conserving/Programs/GreenGrowthToolbox.aspx
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Conservation Planning Goals2. Limit Landscape Fragmentation
NCWRC. 2013. Green growth toolbox handbook. http://www.ncwildlife.org/Conserving/Programs/GreenGrowthToolbox.aspx
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FUTURES
Meentemeyer et al. 2013. FUTURES: Multilevel simulations of emerging urban-rural landscape structure using a patch-growing algorithm. Annals of the Association of American Geographers
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FUTURESPOTENTIAL
tier1
Value
High : 0.999665
Low : 0.00033315
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FUTURESDEMAND
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FUTURESPGA
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FUTURES
2032
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Scenario 1. Status Quo Growth
2032
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Scenario 2. Development ExclusionStatus Quo Development Exclusion
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Scenario 3. Development Constraint
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Scenario 3. Development ConstraintStatus Quo Development Constraint
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Scenario 4. Reduced DemandStatus Quo Reduced Demand
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Scenario 5. Infill DevelopmentStatus Quo Infill
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Scenarios 6-96. Reduced Demand + Infill
7. Reduced Demand + Development Constraint
8. Infill + Development Constraint
9. Reduced Demand + Infill + Development Constraint
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Analyze Outcomes1. Conflicts: Impacts to priority resources
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Analyze Outcomes2. Patterns: Impacts to forest and farmland
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Analyze Outcomes2. Patterns: Impacts to forest and farmland
Fahrig, L. 2003. Effects of habitat fragmentation on biodiversity. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 34: 487-515.
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Conflicts
DE = Development exclusion RD = Reduced demandDC = Development constraint I = Infill
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Conflicts Patterns
DE = Development exclusion RD = Reduced demandDC = Development constraint I = Infill
Status Quo Development Exclusion
More fragmentation-same area forest and farmland-more patches-smaller patches
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Conflicts
DE = Development exclusion RD = Reduced demandDC = Development constraint I = Infill
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Conflicts Patterns
DE = Development exclusion RD = Reduced demandDC = Development constraint I = Infill
Status Quo Reduced Demand
Less fragmentation-more forest and farmland conserved-fewer patches-bigger patches
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Conflicts
DE = Development exclusion RD = Reduced demandDC = Development constraint I = Infill
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Conflicts Patterns
DE = Development exclusion RD = Reduced demandDC = Development constraint I = Infill
Status Quo Infill
Less fragmentation-same area forest and farmland-fewer patches-bigger patches
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Competing PoliciesDevelopment Constraint + Infill
DE = Development exclusion RD = Reduced demandDC = Development constraint I = Infill
Development Constraint
More fragmentation
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Competing PoliciesDevelopment Constraint + Infill
DE = Development exclusion RD = Reduced demandDC = Development constraint I = Infill
Development Constraint Infill
Less fragmentationMore fragmentation
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Competing PoliciesDevelopment Constraint + Infill
DE = Development exclusion RD = Reduced demandDC = Development constraint I = Infill
Development Constraint Infill
Less fragmentationMore fragmentation
Less fragmentation than Development ConstraintMore fragmentation than Infill
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Conclusions
• Explored urbanization scenarios based on hypothetical land use policies
• Used unique modeling method to represent conservation planning strategies
• No single strategy was best for achieving all conservation goals
• Effective planning requires assessment of tradeoffs between different priorities
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Applications and Limitations
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Applications and Limitations
?
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Thank You!Jennifer Koch – [email protected]
Geography and Environmental Sustainability
The University of Oklahoma
Monica Dorning, Ross Meentemeyer, Doug Shoemaker
Center for Geospatial Analytics
North Carolina State University
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FUTURES Performance
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FUTURES Performance