INTEGRATED ACTION PLAN Final Report
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INTEGRATED ACTION PLAN Final Report of the HFP Phase II Mission to Tajikistan November 2009 Prepared by the Humanitarian Futures Programme King’s College London 1
Transcript of INTEGRATED ACTION PLAN Final Report
INTEGRATED ACTION PLAN
Final Report of the HFP Phase II Mission to Tajikistan
November 2009
Prepared by the Humanitarian Futures Programme King’s College London
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nurturing a U
Overview The Humanitarian Futures Programme [HFP] first began work with the UN Country Team [UNCT] in Tajikistan in May 2008 under the auspices of the Integrated Action Plan, a partnership between HFP and UNDP/BCPR to evaluate the futures‐capacities of UNCTs in diverse geographic locations.1 Following an initial assessment of the UNCT in May 2008, HFP conducted a follow‐up mission to the country in June/July 009 to explore concrete ways to support the Government of Tajikistan, the UNCT, 2and other stakeholders to prepare for an increasingly complex future. The premise for HFP’s work in Tajikistan is based on the belief that a UN country system of the future will have to have the capacity for understanding and formulating policies that relate to a confluence of issues ranging across many sectors and disciplines in order to remain relevant. This second trip focused on the potential role of innovation, communication and technology in supporting the ability of practitioners to understand and prepare for the diverse factors impacting on human vulnerability. In this particular instance, HFP partnered with Google‐ounded InSTEDDf 2 to determine how their innovative technological tools for early
. disease detection and disaster response might be applied in the Tajikistan context The main purpose of the mission was to explore the feasibility of launching three “innovations promotion” pilot projects that would expose national stakeholders to alternative approaches to humanitarian prevention, preparedness and response. Areas of focus were based on the conclusions and recommendations of the HFP hase I Analysis Report submitted to the UN Resident Coordinator/Humanitarian oo inPC
rd ator’s office in November 2008.3
1. The objective of the first initiative was to determine how existing echnological tools and expertise in the realm of crisis mapping could be used tto support a centralized Tajikistan Risk Management System.4
2. The objective of the second initiative was to test the applicability of successful innovations promotions mechanisms from the corporate sector in
NCT culture for enhanced creative thinking and idea sharing.5
1 HFP has conducted futures-capacity assessments of UN Country Teams under the auspices of the Integrated Action Plan in the Central African Republic, Ecuador, the Philippines, Tajikistan and Comoros. 2 InSTEDD stands for Innovative Support to Emergencies, Diseases and Disasters. Full information about InSTEDD can be found at http://instedd.org/ 3 With the authorization of the UN Resident Coordinator/Humanitarian Coordinator’s Office in Tajikistan, the final report of the HFP Phase I mission has been made public. A copy of the report is available by request through the HFP office at [email protected] 4 The objective of this initiative relates directly to conclusion 6 of the HFP Phase I report which states “A vital gap in the UNCT’s futures capacity relates to its inability to bring together and analyze diverse information on key issues in a systematic and coherent way; this lack of capacity not only inhibits its effectiveness of programmes but diminishes its role in promoting a longer‐term strategic vision through the dissemination of quality analyses and other types of priority information to the wider humanitarian and development community,” November 2008.
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3. The objective of the third initiative was to explore the potential for
leveraging community‐determined or “user‐driven” innovation as a means to increase community resilience vis‐à‐vis localized risks.6
The mission was conducted over a two‐week period from 26 June through 6 July. Mission members conducted interviews of government officials, UN staff members, donors, and NGO representatives to gather data related to the three different initiatives. Mission members also traveled to the northwestern region of Zarafshan Valley at the Fan Mountain range and to the eastern region of Gorno Badakhshan in he Pamirs to assess existing disaster risk reduction approaches as well as ttechnological capabilities at community levels.7 What is to follow is a brief description of findings according to the three different mission initiatives as well as two 90‐day pilot project proposals for Initiatives I and III. Findings Initiative I: Using existing technology for integrated risk mapping One of the primary objectives of the HFP/InSTEDD mission was to explore the potential for technological support to a proposed Tajikistan Risk Management System. Since the “compound crisis” in Tajikistan during the winter of 2007‐2008, humanitarian and development practitioners have been struggling to develop ways in which to better understand the confluence of factors increasing vulnerability in the country. As a response to growing concerns about energy, food security, public health, economic instability and acute risk from natural disasters, the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Tajikistan has pushed for an integrated data ollection and analysis system to facilitate an enhanced understanding of
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chumanitarian and development interdependencies. In determining the feasibility of HFP/InSTEDD support to such a system, the mission team concentrated its attention around four lines of inquiry: 5 The objective of this initiative relates directly to conclusion 10 of the HFP Phase I report which states, “Institutional and cultural norms currently at play in Tajikistan would seem to have created a UNCT working environment that does not facilitate innovation, risk‐taking or idea exchange amongst its members,” November 2008. 6 The objective of this initiative relates directly to conclusion 7 of the HFP Phase I report which states “The UNCT has an overly restricted view of the full range of institutions, communities and networks that are available to it for the gathering of relevant information and for the development and implementation of effective activities to address futures issues,” November 2008. 7 The rationale in traveling to these two locations was to compare the Disaster Risk Response (DRR) approaches of the UN (UNDP in Zarafshan Valley) with those of the leading NGO in the country, the Aga Khan Foundation Network’s FOCUS (in GBAO), and to talk with members of the different communities with which they worked. See more on this under Initiative III further on in this report. 8 For a full analysis of the “compound crisis” of 2007‐2008, please refer to the Central Asia Regional Risk Assessment: Responding to Water, Energy, and Food Insecurity, January 2009.
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a. What were the key factors to be monitored by the proposed system9? b. What were the existing sources of data generation and analysis? c. What was the feasibility of accessing the proposed types of information? d. Which were the most capable in‐country entities to establish and manage the
system? In analyzing these four different areas, the mission team reached a conclusion about potential technological support to a Tajikistan Risk Management System. Whilst it was clear that many different actors in Tajikistan supported the idea of an integrated data analysis system and that there is a growing need to synthesize disparate and seemingly disconnected elements impacting on human vulnerability, there did not yet appear to be consensus at the time of the HFP/InSTEDD mission – either by government or international actors ‐ on what such a system would actually do. Of particular note were a number of unanswered questions surrounding the purpose of the system, the data sets that would make up its contents (including both easible and desirable), its immediate and longer‐term management, and the fmethodology for bringing all of the different pieces together. Beyond the significant academic and technical challenges related to putting such a system together, there would seem to be many unresolved institutional and political issues that require greater clarification before innovative technology could be put to ood use. Some of the outstanding issues identified by HFP/InSTEDD include the ollowigf
ng:
• Would the system be managed by the GoT with support from the UN or would it be managed entirely by the UN?
• If “housed” within the UN, would its management be led by the UN Resident i Management and Humanitarian Coordinator’s Office, by the UN Disaster R sk
• Programme or by a newly created inter‐agency entity? Would the system seek to be national or regional in nature?10
• Which donors were committed to the system over the long‐term and what were their expectations about how it would work?11
9 An early proposal had focused on [a] precipitation; [b] remittances; [c] food prices; [d] electricity generation; and [e] Nurek Dam water levels as data sets. A later break‐down of areas proposed by the UN consultant hired to study the issue of a Tajikistan Risk Management System divided risk into six areas: [a] energy; [b] climate change; [c] disasters; [d] health; [e] food security; [f] social/political issues, as outlined during a meeting in Dushanbe with Luigi de Martini, 5 July 2009. 10 Following the winter crisis of 2007‐2008, the UNCT in Tajikistan and the UNCT in Kyrgyzstan initiated a more focused dialogue about threats in the region. Regional meetings were held in April and July 2009 to discuss the feasibility of monitoring indicators jointly through a regional mechanism. 11 DFID and the Swiss Development Corporation, amongst others, have been consistent donors to the GoT REACT humanitarian coordination mechanism and to UNDP for its support of this government‐led entity. DFID also recently funded a number of UN posts designed to assist in the establishment of an integrated data collection and analysis system that would potentially be managed by REACT.
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on‐going plans for a more amManagement System. Once a
• Would the system have the capacity to collect and analyze data in such a timely manner as to function as an early warning system?12
Given the various issues still being ironed out at the country level, HFP/InSTEDD feel that – whilst there are integrated modeling technologies that could support the multi‐sector mapping of humanitarian challenges in Tajikistan ‐ the current framework for a Tajikistan Risk Management System is not yet sufficiently developed to be effectively supported by these technologies. Instead, HFP/InSTEDD propose applying these same integrated modeling tools on a much smaller scale initially through a pilot project focused on the health sector as a means to test their applicability. By introducing a technology called complex adaptive systems modeling, HFP/InSTEDD hope to provide the government and the international community in ajikistan with a visual proof of concept prototype of the applicability and Tusefulness of this technology in mapping humanitarian risks. For the proposed pilot, HFP/InSTEDD intend to work with WHO Tajikistan to apply complex adaptive systems modeling to the problem of cholera outbreak in the country. The goal here is not to cure cholera (whose treatment is, in any event, relatively straightforward), but rather to map and, hence, better understand how different factors within the country interrelate to impact on the frequency and severity of cholera outbreaks. The logic of this “small step” approach relates to HFP/InSTEDD’s wish to introduce the technology in a manageable and scale‐appropriate way. Through an integrated visual model – one that would connect the provision of electricity, water treatment, cholera bacteria growth, human infection and the perpetuation of the bacteria through poor sanitation – practitioners will be able to view for themselves how a tracking of interdependencies between disparate elements can assist in better understanding human vulnerability. HFP/InSTEDD believe that the mapping of public health within Tajikistan via this particular echnology is an excellent opportunity both to test its applicability and to create an toutput of use to humanitarian practitioners in the country.13 In short, the pilot will result in a systems dynamics diagram for this particular area of study and will also function to guide expectations and methodology as relates to
bitious and comprehensive Tajikistan Risk ctors understand the usefulness and interconnections
12 During the time of the HFP/InSTEDD mission, discussions were on‐going about what could be considered expectations of the risk management system. Apparently, early interactions with GoT interlocutors revealed that there was a certain level of wariness about such a mechanism since they feared it might raise false expectations about the government’s capacity to mitigate and respond to crises in a timely manner. 13 Complex adaptive systems modeling is a visual tool that maps the interconnections between push factors and feedback loops within a complex ecosystem. The mathematics that drives the tool varies from situation to situation; however, models generally employ some level of mathematics ‐ through algorithms ‐ to identify and alert users to anomalies in the complex ecosystem being monitored. Modeling is widely used by military and corporate actors but has thus far been never been employed in the humanitarian sphere although there is currently great interest on the part of modelers and other academics to test its applicability.
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between disparate data inputs, it is hoped that they will then be able to create a more robust conceptual framework for the inter‐sector system currently under review. Annexed to this report is a 90‐day pilot project proposal for the introduction of complex adaptive systems modeling in Tajikistan. Therein are ncluded additional details about the methodology for establishing such a model, a
nd provisional project costs. idescription of specific outputs/expected outcomes, a Initiative II: Promoting innovation within the UNCT The objective of the mission’s second initiative was to test the applicability of successful innovations promotions mechanisms from the corporate sector in nurturing a UNCT culture for enhanced creative thinking and idea sharing. During HFP’s first mission to Tajikistan in May 2008, it was noted that institutional and cultural norms in the country had seemed to create a UNCT working environment that did not facilitate innovation, risk‐taking or idea exchange amongst its members. or this reason, HFP wanted to see if successful innovations promotion mechanisms Ffrom the corporate sector might be applied within the Tajikistan context. n determining the feasibility of introducing an innovations promotion mechanism ith n
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i the UNCT, four lines of inquiry were explored:
a. What were staff perceptions with regard to their personal ability to introduce new ideas within the organization?
NCT to b. What opportunities and/or mechanisms already existed within the U
? develop and share new ideas?
c. What were the primary constraints to innovation within the UNCTd. What more could be done to promote an organizational culture of
innovation?14 In analyzing these issues, the mission team conducted a number of key informant interviews and introduced three different innovations promotion models to UN staff, asking them to comment on the feasibility of using a similar model within the UNCT. The models introduced included the Shell GameChanger, an internet platform‐based idea development bank, the IBM Jam Session, a virtual dialogue session employed to provoke discussion around one new idea, and the GoogleLabs oncept, an AskMe‐style community board created to assist staff in developing their cown new ideas.
n analy I
zing staff responses, the following findings surfaced:
• Whilst staff was generally frustrated by a perceived inability to induce change, many felt that the entire notion of innovation was personality‐ rather than institution‐driven. In other words, staff felt that, with the support of
14 For this initiative, the mission team interviewed a total of 12 UN staff members from eight different agencies. The questionnaire employed for these interviews can be accessed from HFP.
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dynamic and open‐minded supervisors, they were able to be heard with regard to some new ideas;
• Staff explained that a culture for innovation was dependent on the existence of a family‐like office atmosphere. For some staff, it was felt that such an atmosphere did exist – albeit to a limited extent ‐ within certain agencies in
e Tajikistan. What was less evident was the existence of a requisite family‐likculture across the whole of the UNCT;
• UN staff described a decreased incentive to be rewarded professionally for innovative thinking due to their own views about the longevity of their UN careers. Given that staff views few avenues for UN promotion at the national level, many young, bright staff members do not consider work with the UN a
ey long‐term situation, but, rather, a “stepping stone” or “CV builder” whilst thawait the opportunity to work and/or study abroad;
• Many of the internet platform‐based models so successful in the corporate world were not considered suitable to the Tajikistan context as staff does not have computers at home and are said to spend little time on the internet apart from what is required for immediate work‐related tasks.15
In terms of UNCT‐wide initiatives that have the potential to promote new ideas and an enhanced family‐like culture, the single idea that surfaced during the course of discussions ‐ and it surfaced repeatedly ‐ was a UN RC/HC‐generated initiative called Green Tajikistan, a multi‐agency environmental intervention that would include activities to mitigate land degradation, improve small‐scale irrigation, and conserve energy amongst others . Although still in its conceptual infancy16, this initiative would seem to have provoked a significant level of discussion and enthusiasm amongst staff members across agencies. For many staff, it was felt that this initiative could serve as a central platform to enhance UNCT‐wide innovation and idea sharing. How this would be done remains to be seen. However, one thing that is clear is that it would have to have the strong support not just of the UN C/HC, but of a coalition of senior UNCT leadership in order for it to ensure “buy‐in” Rfrom staff and, hence, to function properly. Given that HFP would not wish to introduce an innovations promotion mechanism for the sake of innovation per se but, rather, as it might relate to an emerging UN effort that agencies feel is both important to their own mandates and to the UN presence in Tajikistan overall, HFP would like to follow the development of the Green Tajikistan idea to see whether it might offer an opportunity for enhancing creative thinking and idea sharing across the UNCT. It is still uncertain whether this
15 In fact, some UN staff explained that an internet platform‐based mechanism had already been introduced within the context of UNDP programming but that it was never utilized by staff. That said, there was some indication that an internet platform‐based mechanism could potentially work for field staff as they are more dependent on the internet to remain connected with family and friends after working hours. 16 At the time of the HFP/InSTEDD mission, a consultant had apparently been hired to develop the Green Tajikistan idea and to produce a concept note for circulation to UN agencies and donors.
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effort will have a lifespan beyond the term of the current UN RC/HC.17 However, if it looks as though it might, it could provide a key opportunity for testing one of the above‐described corporate mechanisms. Another potential idea related to this initiative is to pilot one of these mechanisms within a single UN agency. In this regard, it could be useful to tailor a model to the work of the UNDP Community Programmes unit – the UN program with the largest field presence in the country – for idea sharing in relation to community resilience vis‐à‐vis localized risks. This idea would follow‐on recent efforts by the UNDP representative to promote staff incentives for creative thinking and innovation and could potentially be connected o the pilot project being proposed by HFP/InSTEDD under Initiative III should it be tsuccessful (see below). Initiative III: Leveraging innovation at the community‐level The objective of the third initiative was to explore the potential for leveraging community‐determined or “user‐driven” innovation in Tajikistan to increase community resilience vis‐à‐vis localized disaster and livelihood risks. Given the frequency with which communities are confronted with risk in Tajikistan, FP/InSTEDD wanted to explore the potential for learning from these communities H
through the harvesting of grass‐roots level ideas and approaches.
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e of the questions that the mission team sought to answer were:
a. How do communities share information about risk, including “lessons learned”?
b. How do communities prioritize risk and does this prioritization match up with international perceptions?
n c. What examples of “positive deviance” exist, if any, that could be replicated iother communities?
d. Are there particular characteristics within a community that predicated an enhanced capacity to mitigate and respond to risk?
In order to explore these questions, the team conducted multiple field visits in the regions of the Zarafshan Valley and Gorno Badakhshan. The rationale in choosing these two locations as case studies centered on their relative remoteness and high risk. It was also based on the fact that the team hoped to compare the DRR pproaches of the UN (in Zarafshan Valley) with those of the leading NGO in the acountry, the Aga Khan Foundation Network’s FOCUS (in GBAO). What became immediately evident from visits to both of these locations was that rugged terrain and poor road infrastructure prevented communities from sharing disaster information and ideas for mitigating risk in any sort of systematic or immediate way. For this reason, ways to enhance community‐level communication
of the HFP/InSTEDD mission team. In particular, the became an immediate focus
17 The current RC/HC is widely viewed as the life source behind the Green Tajikistan idea. However, his term in Tajikistan is to come to an end in 2010.
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f ollowing challenges to effective information sharing were identified:
• Lack of simultaneous communication capability within villages, between villages and to district and national response hubs for the rapid coordination of disaster response;
• Lack of regular information sharing on “lessons learned” between villages on disaster‐specific topics including localized mitigation, preparedness and response techniques through systematic, community‐driven horizontal information sharing;
• Lack of continued community‐level education on disaster‐specific topics due to the costs and logistics challenges involved in bringing village, district [Jamoat] and national‐level leadership together for vertical information sharing.
Given the above‐noted challenges and connected to the mission objective of harvesting innovative ideas about community resilience from communities themselves, HFP/InSTEDD began to consider the potential introduction of small group communication at village and Jamoat levels to enhance disaster information management between villages. At the same time, the proposed introduction of small roup community‐level messaging would allow for a cross‐fertilization of ideas gabout risk mitigation by the very persons facing those risks on a daily basis. InSTEDD has developed a small group SMS communication software – called GeoChat – that allows select individuals to communicate with each other simultaneously through “radio broadcast”‐like messages that can also be instantaneously mapped anywhere in the world on a web‐accessed computer. Whilst this technology has never been used in Tajikistan, it has been used by InSTEDD and other actors for tracking disease outbreak in other geographic ocations. HFP/InSTEDD feel its application to community‐level disaster risk
ration. lmitigation and response would be something totally new and worthy of explo The primary focus of a proposed introduction of this technology would be on community preparedness and response to natural disaster risks through enhanced horizontal and vertical lines of communication. At the same time, HFP/InSTEDD feel that it is important to maintain a holistic and open‐minded approach to community resilience in situations of multi‐dimensional vulnerability. Therefore, the project would also encourage the use of the SMS messaging tool for other forms of community‐level communication such as messaging related to disease outbreak, rop productivity, livestock well‐being, transport to and from community and cprovincial locations and the like. Employing a wide‐ranging approach to the potential uses of this communication technology, HFP/InSTEDD seek to garner a diverse range of data inputs on community‐level resilience, including novel ideas on the potential uses of the group messaging tool that would not be prescribed by external experts but would come from the community “users” themselves. This “user‐driven” innovations promotion
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project could then feed into community support activities under the auspices of NDP’s area‐based approach to development and/or DFID’s newly launched rural U
community development program in the Zarafshan Valley.18 Annexed to this report is a 90‐day pilot project proposal for the introduction of GeoChat SMS group messaging at the community‐level in the Zarafshan Valley. For this project, HFP/InSTEDD would like to partner with the UNDP Community Programme office in Ayni since its staff has already established strong relationships with Jamoat Resource Centres [JRCs] in Zarafshan Valley and could assist in identifying appropriate communities with which to test the technology. In the annexed proposal are additional details about the methodology for establishing a group messaging model, a description of specific outputs/expected outcomes, and provisional project costs.
18 DFID is to launch a region‐wide climate change adaptation program in Fall 2009. The Zarafshan Valley is a location that will be receiving funding for this initiative. Information collected during team meeting with DFID in Dushanbe, July 2009.
Project Proposal
Mapping Compound Crises in Tajikistan: Designing a Complex Adaptive Systems Model
for a Key Problem Domain Overview Since the “compound crisis” in Tajikistan during the 2007‐2008 winter, humanitarian and development practitioners have been struggling to develop ways in which to better understand the confluence of factors increasing vulnerability exponentially in the country and across the Central Asian region.19 As a response to growing concerns about energy, food security, public health, economic instability and acute risk from natural disasters, the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Tajikistan has pushed for an integrated data collection and analysis ystem to facilitate an enhanced understanding of interdependencies as they relate sto vulnerability in the country. Over the course of the last 18 months, the Humanitarian Futures Programme [HFP] has maintained a close relationship with the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Tajikistan and his team, having initially conducted a futures‐capacity assessment in the country in May 2008 and following efforts to map the confluence of longer‐term crisis drivers in the country ever since. In June/July 2009, HFP conducted a second mission to Tajikistan to explore, amongst other issues, the feasibility of using existing technological software to support a proposed Tajikistan Risk Management System. As a case study, HFP partnered with Google‐founded InSTEDD20 for this second mission to determine how their tools for early disease detection and disaster response might be applied in the Tajikistan context. Outputs would include a set of dynamics diagrams that encapsulate ‐ in a simple and understandable way – various factors within different problem domains and the most important feedbacks between problem domains. The project would also result n a thorough knowledge analysis of the applicability, user‐friendliness, and cost‐ieffectiveness of complex adaptive systems modeling in the humanitarian context. Under the auspices of this project, InSTEDD would take the lead on the technical side, providing cutting‐edge expertise in data collection and modeling technologies.
the assembly of government and international data For its part, HFP would guide
19 For a full analysis of the compound crisis of 2007‐2008, please refer to the Central Asia Regional Risk Assessment: Responding to Water, Energy, and Food Insecurity, January 2009.
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20 InSTEDD stands for Innovative Support to Emergencies, Disease and Disasters. See http://www.instedd.org for more information.
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the health sector in particular. An initial mapping of problem domains within the health sector would function to
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source participants and would also ensure that the entire process is analyzed, documenting strengths and weaknesses of the applicability of modeling to real‐life humanitarian situations. Such a partnership would allow for the testing of nnovative technology with proper accompanying evaluation of its potential uses for eview by the whole of the humanitarian community. ir Objective The purpose of the project would be twofold: [a] it would test the applicability and usefulness of complex adaptive systems modeling for the mapping of vulnerability in Tajikistan with a particular focus on public health and [b] it would guide the Government of Tajikistan and the international community as they consider a tructure and methodology for a more comprehensive Tajikistan Risk Management sSystem over the longer‐term. Further to these in‐country objectives, the monitoring of the benefits and limitations f the technology would serve as a proofofconcept for the potential introduction f this tool in other geographic locations and across sectors. oo Approach HFP/InSTEDD would like to approach the design of a complex systems model by working first and foremost with WHO Tajikistan to map a single disease cycle – cholera – with a view to exploring whether it is possible to map why and when outbreaks occur. The goal would not be to cure cholera (whose treatment is, in any event, relatively straightforward), but rather, to understand how different factors within the country, eg. public health practices, energy provision, climatic changes, and the availability of clean water interrelate to impact on the frequency and severity of cholera outbreaks. Creating such a model would offer insights into the interdependencies of these different sectors from a national perspective and would lso test the more general applicability of modeling in mapping the interconnections abetween seemingly disparate factors. FP/InSTEDD reasoning for prioritizing a mapping of the cholera disease cycle in he sHt
fir t instance is enumerated as follows:
1. The fact that WHO Tajikistan has already developed a MindMap prototype of on factors impacting on health vulnerability and is keen to work further
complex adaptive systems modeling; 2. The fact that disease‐cycle mapping is scope‐appropriate and would,
therefore, provide a realistic and useful proofofconcept prototype for later models in other sectors;
3. The fact that the outbreak of cholera is an excellent litmus test of the state of a public health system and, in particular in Tajikistan, makes the direct connection between electricity, water pump stations and public health;
4. The fact that InSTEDD has a strong background in vulnerability mapping for
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realities.
test the efficacy and usability of InSTEDD modeling software in the Tajikistan context and would also assist the UN system as it considers the feasibility and establishes a conceptual framework for a larger, mapping product that would include the study of problem domains across multiple sectors. The development of a model focusing on a single disease cycle would support decision‐makers to capture and quantify interdependencies between health metrics in a way that hierarchical and sector‐specific models cannot. Finally, it would provide a visual prototype of what such a tool might look like and how it could benefit humanitarian response planning of all kinds. This scale‐appropriate approach would limit the scope of data/collection/analysis, restrict the number of experts that would have to be nterviewed to gather adequate data sets, and minimize the cost and effort required ito build the software tools needed for this specific kind of modeling. The model would not be constructed with the intention of being fully mathematics‐driven in this first instance. Instead, modelers would seek to establish a visual tool that would bring together and analyze different relevant data sets. This visual tool would allow health practitioners and government policy makers to begin to make the connections between diverse vulnerability metrics. Methodology HFP and InSTEDD will collaborate during the course of the project [1] to ensure that the piloted technology is appropriate to the needs of the national health sector, [2] to assemble a range of appropriate data sources, [3] to make certain that complex adaptive systems modeling logic and manipulation as well as the dynamics diagrams that it produces are understood by humanitarian actors, and, finally, [4] to ocument the entire process by which the system is developed for review by dinterested humanitarian practitioners who may wish to replicate the model. In the first instance, InSTEDD will identify a small team of modelers to partner with government officials, UN staff and NGO representatives working in the health sector to craft understandable models of the core stocks and flows of goods, services, and resources within key problem domains.21 Such stocks and flows might include the stock and flow of household energy/heating and its relationship to household economics; the stock and flow of disease infections in the populace and their relation to the prevalence of seasonal migration, etc. In terms of the cholera disease cycle, in particular, contributing factors include not only the operations of water treatment facilities but electricity generation and distribution, food security, migration and so on, showing how this initial focus on cholera would in itself already be multi‐disciplinary. Given the complexity of the mapping exercise, the crafting of models would involve continual calibration and a process for constant editing to ensure that they remain grounded in community‐level health sector
21 Modelers would include experts with prior experience in planning a UN response to pandemics, in developing models for predicting climate change, and in designing dashboards for commercial and public sector officials.
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Further to the dialogue that has already been initiated between HFP/InSTEDD and WHO around a potential modeling project, HFP/InSTEDD would send a small team to Dushanbe to conduct initial consultations, to identify required data sets and collect as much fundamental data as possible at an early stage, to establish relationships between key national stakeholders and to ensure that the objectives and implementation modalities of the project are well understood by all involved. This trip would also allow for the transfer of required mapping software and erson‐to‐person training of the in‐country InSTEDD technical specialist to be hired, p(see budget below). Thereafter, the process to develop the dynamics diagrams and to collect still further data sets would be managed by a small InSTEDD managerial and technical office in Dushanbe with regular contributions by external modeling experts. These nternational modelers would then finalize the diagrams once all data sets were ssessed to be complete. ia Outputs The primary output of the project would be the creation of one specific complex systems dashboard model to map problem domains and the interactions between hese problem domains in the health sector in Tajikistan with a focus on the cholera tdisease cycle. This dashboard would provide a map of the interdependencies between the cholera disease cycle and the economic, social, and natural conditions that give rise to it. The initial model would map the primary feedback loops that control the flow of disease through both urban and rural populations. Where possible, this model ould capture measurable interactions from existing data sets, creating an initial w
proofofconcept platform for multi‐sector complex systems models. A secondary and equally important output would be a knowledge analysis of the benefits and limitations of the model, of lessons learned in crafting it, including information on education requirements to ensure modeling logic is understood by humanitarian practitioners, a realistic evaluation of the applicability of the technology to real‐life humanitarian problems and recommendations on ethodology for the further use of complex adaptive systems modeling in the context f humanitarian action. mo xpected outcomes ut om roject include: EO
c es of the p
i. Design of complex adaptive systems models that would visualize the ingle interdependencies between energy production, water treatment and a s
disease cycle in Tajikistan, namely cholera; ii. An enhanced understanding and shared vision by national actors, both
government and international, as to how to use complex adaptive systems
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thinking to manage the profound interdependencies between the nation’s health system and other public sectors;
d iii. The establishment of a social network of key stakeholders who generate ancontrol access to the variables included in the model;
. t iv The garnering of support for enhanced data‐sharing between governmenministries, international actors and community‐level entities;
v. Tested experience in the use of modeling in the context of humanitarianmitigation and response;
vi. An initial assessment – based on the outputs of the model ‐ of potential methods for local capacity building as relates to energy production, water treatment and rural/urban health.
System dynamics technology – a special notation for this proposal To understand system dynamics diagrams, one need only teach two basic concepts: 1] how to think in loops instead of lines and [2] how to track the level in a reservoir iven a certain inflow and outflow, which are called stocks and flows. [g Loops instead of lines From an early age, nearly every student is taught to map causes of observed phenomena back through lines of influence. For example, A causes B which causes C. The core of system dynamics is closing the loop and replacing the notion of “cause” ith “influence.” In most complex systems, A influences B which influences C, which w
in turn, influences A again. Take the example from Peter Senge’s book, The Fifth Discipline: filling a bath tub. Here, there is a desired level of water for taking a bath. To start from zero, one changes the Faucet Position (to open), which influences the Water Flow, which, in turn, changes the Current Water Level. Based on a comparison of the Current Water evel and the Desired Water Level, one finds a perceived gap. This gap then nfluences the Faucet Position: does one turn it off or keep it open? Li
This type of model is called a ‘causal loop diagram,’ because it traces the circles of influence around a concept. Notice that there is one independent variable (Desired Water Level). All other variables are dependent on each other. This concept of linking together causes is a powerful mechanism for capturing the relationships between concepts that we commonly parse into hierarchies and trees; although we understand variables on different branches to be related, we have weak mechanisms for showing this relationship. System dynamics bridges this gap. Stocks and Flows: Tracking Levels and Flows of Things The power of systems dynamics emerges when it is used to track stocks and flows within complex systems. In these models, stocks are like the bathtubs in the first example: they are a reservoir into which water flows. The flows into the tub are controlled by the Faucet Position. Here is another way of notating the concept:
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The cloud on the left simply indicates that some elements are beyond the bounds of the model. We really don’t care to model how the public water system brings fluid to he house and how the house’s plumbing gets it to the bathtub, so we just put those tconcepts ‘in the cloud’ to focus on bathtub dynamics. Bathtubs have an important second flow: an outflow through a drain. These drains (also called sinks) introduce an important concept: dynamic equilibrium. It is entirely possible to leave the drain open and still fill the tub, provided that the water nflow is faster than its outflow. This concept can be captured by adding another oop to the diagram for balancing the faucet and drain positions: il
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Cholera Model Applying these concepts to the cholera model requires modeling multiple systems, each of which has its own stock and flow, and then interrelating the dynamics that nfluence each other. Here, the hypothesis is that Energy Production influences ater Purification influences Cholera Levels influences Illness:
iW
The closed loops from Illness to Energy Production and Water Purification are likely very small, but stem from how Illness might impact on the number of workers available for Energy Production and Water Purification, decreasing the capacity for oth, and hence, increasing Illness. Such a dynamic would not be small during a bpandemic. As an example of the type of analysis we would pursue on the ground in Tajikistan, the following sections break down these four elements into questions about the core dynamics. Climate, Meteorology, and Hydropower Capacity Given that the primary source of power in Tajikistan derives from its hydropower generation plants, the flow of water into the reservoirs behind these dams is a ritical metric about the health of the country. This measurement is a proxy for the cpotential hydroelectric capacity of the country. Measuring the potential hydroelectric capacity inflow requires understanding both the rate of rainfall as well as the rate of glacial melt. Measuring the outflow rates requires asking questions about potential and actual outflow capacity of the dams:
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The relationship of hydroelectric power generating capacity to actual generation occurs through the water outflow rate: how much water moves though the turbines determines the amount of electricity generated. However, how much electricity is available is also a function of imports and other generation sources. There are many uestions about how Tajikistan determines how much electricity to generate nternally versus its import levels: qi
Water Treatment Water treatment requires electrical power. The available power for water purification will not be absolute level, but will vary with the rationing of power to certain hours of the day. The lags between these periods will correspond with periods of bacterial growth, especially if water purification is imperfect (but good enough). Therefore, just like balancing the inflows and outflows of a bathtub, it is important to understand the rates at which water is purified versus the rate at which bacteria grows. The following diagram begins to capture the flows of water between decontamination and recontamination (both by bacteria growth and by introduction of new vectors of contamination from infected blackwater):
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Water Consumption The link between water treatment and its consumption depends on many variables that are impracticable to guess from the outside. What percentage of people obtain their water through public water systems, which obtain it from bodies of water or rivers, and which fetch water using containers carried between a well or reservoir nd the home? Based on the answers to such questions, it would be possible to look aat alternatives for water treatment, including treatment at the source. That said, an important dynamic to capture relates to the backflow of cholera bacteria from the feces of infected individuals. Not all of this bacteria will pass through water treatment facilities, especially those that get captured in bodies of water in low‐infrastructure contexts (e.g., ponds near remote villages). Cholera Infection Capturing the infection of cholera in a population is a known art. One method for approaching the spread is a SIR model: susceptible, infected, recovered, where recovered population can become re‐infected.
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Relating the vectors of infection—particularly the type and amount of water consumed—with the contact frequency will be a modeling challenge. That link is the ey to understanding how water treatment relates to cholera outbreaks. Treatment lans, being well characterized, need not be included in this model. kp Closing Thoughts Whilst the exact flow of water from sewage to purification to drinking water (the primary avenue of infection for this bacteria) needs to be clarified, an example systems model of the process can still be constructed. Note that the above model is meant to be illustrative of a style of thinking; the mathematics behind it requires careful modeling of the flows of water, bacteria, and people in the system. Such a model can only be built through interviews with the subject domain experts in the inistries and international organizations working in Tajikistan, both in Dushanbe m
and in rural areas. Importantly, systems thinking consulting involves changing the perception of various actors in order that they move from thinking about their “small slice” or sector of the problem (water, power, epidemiology) to a view that recognizes a completely interdependent system, where the interactions get carefully plotted onto the wall for all to see (and ponder). In this way, a systems model provides a map of “what happens when.”
21
22
Project tim i
ttle
el ne September Kick‐off modeling meeting in Sea
Early October Data collection trip to Tajikistan Mid October Data munging and aggregation
h models Early November Modeling meeting in CA to build sketc
ary sketch model Late November Delivery of prelimin
mber Mid Dece Revision of models
January Models submitted to UN in Tajikistan
ate January
Review and evaluation of applicability of model/ L Production of knowledge analysis documentation
endar days due to compensate for holiday periods Timeline extends beyond 90 calduring the period of the project. *
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Budget Total project cost: USD 142,890 Item Cost per month Total Personnel Program Manager (InSTEDD) 2,500 7,500
t (H P) Project Liaison and
Knowledge Managemen F 2,500 7,500 Project Manager (MIT) 5,500 16,500 Multi‐sector consulting 5,500 16,500
Visualization 2,000 6,000 Dushanbe liaison 1,500 4,500
Material
Hardware 3,500 Software 750
T
ravel Team of 2 (US/Tajikistan x 2) 36,000
Meetings Modeling kick off meeting (x 4 modelers) 4,000 Interviews 500
Post‐mission modeling retreat (x 4 modelers) 4,000 1,000
Review
Subtotal
108,250
Miscellaneous (10%) 10,825
Overhead (20%) 23,815
Total project costs 142,890
Project Proposal
Promoting CommunityLevel Resilience to Disasters in Tajikistan:
The Introduction of Small Group Communication in Zarafshan Valley
Overview Tajikistan is a poor, landlocked country trapped in a cycle of chronic risk and vulnerability. Over 90 percent mountainous, the country is prone to small, medium and large natural disasters at a scale of 200 per annum.22 In addition, the country faces a host of potential and relatively imminent humanitarian crises driven by entrenched development challenges related to scarcity of resources and profound economic instability. As demonstrated by the compound crisis of 2007‐2008 when exceptionally cold weather caused breakdowns in the country’s energy infrastructure, damaged winter crops and reduced livestock herds, food, water and energy supplies are simply not sufficient to accommodate populations across the nation. At the same time, lack of sustainable employment opportunities has resulted n such widespread economic migration that remittances in 2008 accounted for
MF.iover 50 percent of Tajikistan’s total GDP, according to an estimate of the I In this fragile context, human vulnerability has grown increasingly acute, complicated by a rugged national topography and weak state infrastructure that impede ease of transport and communication. Problems with communication were evident during the winter crisis of 2007‐2008 when information about how different stress factors were compounding to threaten the well‐being of populations in remote locations was not reaching response hubs in a timely manner. Lack of rapid and reliable information about what was happening “on the ground” impeded ommunities from helping themselves, supporting each other and alerting
23
cgovernment and international counterparts to the severity and reach of the crisis. In May 2009, HFP and InSTEDD conducted a joint mission to Tajikistan to explore, amongst other issues, the potential for leveraging community‐determined innovations as a means to increase community resilience vis‐à‐vis localized risks. Following a 14‐day mission that brought the three‐person team to many different corners of the country and allowed its members to speak with a host of actors, including UN staff, government counterparts, donors and NGO representatives, HFP and InSTEDD identified the following challenges to effective information sharing in
.situations of natural disaster
24
22 ing by the GoT Committee on Emergency Situations during a presentation at the REACT eeting, Dushanbe, May 2008.
As noted durcoordination m23 As noted in Cash Flow From Tajik Migrants Stalls, Sabrina Tavernise, New York Times, 28 December 2008.
mf
25
1. Lack of simultaneous communication capability within villages, between
villages and to district and national response hubs for the rapid coordination of disaster response;
2. Lack of regular information sharing on “lessons learned” between villages on disaster‐specific topics including localized mitigation, preparedness and response techniques through systematic, community‐driven horizontal information sharing;
3. Lack of continued community‐level education on disaster‐specific topics due to the costs and logistics challenges involved in bringing village, district [Jamoat] and national‐level leadership together for vertical information sharing.
Given the above‐noted challenges and connected to the mission objective of harvesting innovative ideas about community resilience from communities themselves, HFP/InSTEDD would like to introduce small group communication at village and Jamoat levels to enhance disaster information management between villages. At the same time, the proposed introduction of small group community‐evel messaging would allow for a cross‐fertilization of novel ideas about risk lmitigation by the very persons facing those risks on a daily basis. InSTEDD has developed a small group SMS communication software – called GeoChat – that allows select individuals to communicate with each other simultaneously through “radio broadcast”‐like messages that can also be instantaneously mapped anywhere in the world on a web‐accessed computer. Whilst this technology has never been used in Tajikistan, it has been used by InSTEDD and other actors for tracking disease outbreak in other geographic ocations. HFP/InSTEDD feel that its application to community‐level disaster risk
ration. lmitigation and response would be something totally new and worthy of explo The primary focus of a proposed introduction of this technology would be on community preparedness and response to natural disaster risks through enhanced horizontal and vertical lines of communication. At the same time, HFP/InSTEDD feel that it is important to maintain a holistic and open‐minded approach to community resilience in situations of multi‐dimensional vulnerability. Therefore, the project would also encourage the use of the SMS messaging tool for other forms of community‐level communication such as messaging related to disease outbreak, rop productivity, livestock well‐being, transport to and from community and cprovincial locations and the like. Employing a wide‐ranging approach to the potential uses of this communication technology, HFP/InSTEDD seek to garner a diverse range of data inputs on community‐level resilience, including novel ideas on the potential uses of the group essaging tool that would not be prescribed by external experts but would come rom the community “users” themselves.
26
mudflows, roc
What is to follow is a proposed outline for the pilot introduction of small group communication software during the winter months of 2009‐2010 in Zarafshan Valley as a means to promote community resilience amongst Tajik populations onfronted with chronic vulnerability. The pilot would be rolled out over a 90‐day cperiod. Under the auspices of this project, InSTEDD would take the lead on the technical side, providing unparalleled expertise in data collection and information analysis technologies. For its part, HFP would facilitate necessary partnerships between relevant partners and would document the process by which the pilot is implemented in order to produce a knowledge analysis of this “user‐driven” communication technology. An HFP/InSTEDD partnership would allow for the esting of innovative technology with proper documentation for review by the hole of the humanitarian community.
tw Objective The project’s primary purposes are [1] to promote horizontal communication, early warning and shared response mechanisms within and across remote communities and [2] to enhance vertical flows of information both to and from central disaster preparedness and response hubs [at both district and national levels] for improved information management in the face of potential compound crises, and [3] to learn rom communities themselves about priority uses of this technology for villages ffacing acute risk. A secondary objective of the project is to study the process by which this new technology is introduced and utilized by participant communities with the view to documenting the strengths and weaknesses of the technology for review by the overnment of Tajikistan, relevant donors, and the humanitarian community at arge. Gl Approach HFP/InSTEDD would like to approach the introduction of InSTEDD’s GeoChat small group communication technology by focusing on one geographic at‐risk area, amely the Zarafshan Valley, through a close partnership with the UNDP ommu : nC
nity Programme office in Ayni. The logic for this choice is outlined below
• Zarafshan Valley is a mountainous area of acute risk where transport and oad communication are seriously constrained by rugged terrain and poor r
infrastructure; • Communities in Zarafshan Valley are regularly confronted with small,
medium and large‐scale natural disasters, including avalanches, floods, kfalls and earthquakes24;
24 For detailed information on the level of risk to natural disasters assessed in the Zarafshan Valley, please refer to the Mission East Rapid Comparative Risk Assessment: Study Among the 259 Villages of
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Resource Center [JRC] and Rapid Response Team [RRT] representatives from the
• Despite their remoteness and unpaved roads, most villages of Zarafshan Valley have adequate mobile telephone coverage25;
• Strong community leadership exists in a number of villages of Zarafshan Rapid Valley, evidenced by active Jamoat Resource Centers [JRCs] and REACT
Response Teams [RRTs] already identified by UNDP; • Strong local management of the pilot could be facilitated by the UNDP
Community Programme office in Ayni through its established network with community leaders across the district;
• HFP/InSTEDD has an existing relationship with UNDP in Dushanbe and with the UNDP Community Programme office in Ayni that would help to ensure the successful implementation of the pilot project.
As noted above, HFP/InSTEDD would employ a holistic approach that seek to garner a diverse range of data inputs, including novel ideas on the potential uses of the group messaging tool that would not be prescribed by external experts but would come from the community “users” themselves. This “user‐driven” innovations promotion project could then feed into community support activities under the uspices of UNDP’s area‐based approach to development and/or DFID’s newly aunched rural community development program in the Zarafshan Valley.al 26 Methodology FP/InSTEDD will partner with the UNDP Community Programmes office in Ayni in H
the design, implementation, and data analysis of this pilot project. It will also hire a part‐time Project Manager and Technical Specialist to be based in Dushanbe charged with [1] facilitating the establishment of relations with the appropriate national mobile carrier provider and [2] offering day‐to‐day technical assistance to the UNDP Community Programmes office in Ayni via regular monitoring visits to Zarafshan during the course of the pilot. Further to this in‐country support, there will be an InSTEDD Technical Manager and HFP iaison/Knowledge Analysis Manager who will oversee the various implementation Land data analysis aspects of the project. With the guidance of the UNDP Community Programmes office, HFP/InSTEDD will select three villages in three different provincial divisions or Jamoats as pilot groups for the introduction of the software technology. Each group will consist of no more than twelve members. The majority of members is envisioned to be Jamoat
M ashtchohi Kohi Ani and Panjikent districts, Zeravshan Valley, author: Christophe Belperron, Mission EastDRR Coordinator, Dushanbe, November 2008. 25 g Cell phone coverage and the use of GeoChat technology were rigorously tested by InSTEDD durinthree days of intense travel across the Fan mountain region in May 2009. 26 DFID is to launch a region‐wide climate change adaptation program in Fall 2009. The Zarafshan Valley is a location that will be receiving funding for this initiative. Information collected during team meeting with DFID in Dushanbe, July 2009.
villages but could also include women’s groups, village doctors and local entrepreneurs. These initial groups will not comprise central government epresentatives but will surely include a staff member from UNDP Ayni and rInSTEDD to track the development of the messaging communication. During the 90‐day pilot project, group members will be provided with inexpensive mobile telephones and trained on their use. Thereafter, a GeoChat “instance” will be created that links each of the group members with each other and links select lead group members with select lead group members from the other two villages such that there are a total of four pilot GeoChat groups ‐ three intra‐village and one inter‐village groups. Members will be provided with hands‐on training of SMS techniques and will be explained the potential benefits of SMS vs. voice communication.
At the same time, GeoChat mapping capability will be installed at three locations – in the UNDP office in Ayni, at the InSTEDD technical support office in Dushanbe, and at InSTEDD headquarters in Palo Alto – and hands‐on training provided to new users of the potential uses of the mapping technology. GeoChat mapping allows any group member with access to the Web to see a map with the location of the sender and the time of message send. Below is a visual example of the screens/information made available by GeoChat maps. With a single message, a member’s message is roadcast, located, and made part of a chronological Twitter‐like news feed for all takeholders to followbs
27:
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27 The image provided here is somewhat fuzzy. It is obviously clear as day on a computer screen.
With the assistance of the HFP Liaison and Knowledge Manager and the InSTEDD Senior Technical Manager, the in‐country InSTEDD support team will devise a standardized data analysis system in order that group members and project analysts can compare observed strengths and weaknesses of the system at the end of the trial period. This data will then be brought together and documented through the identification of important trends in order to produce a “lessons learned” analysis of the pilot for review by both in‐country and external practitioners who ay wish to replicate the pilot and/or employ the GeoChat technology in another ontext altogether. mc Output The outputs of the project would be a case study example from Zarafshan Valley as to the applicability and potential uses of GeoChat small group messaging systems
mpanying knowledge analysis report of the strengths and weaknesses of luding technological, institutional and cultural constraints.
and an accothe tool, inc xpected outcomes utcoEO
mes of the project include:
• n Valley for Enhanced horizontal and vertical information flows in Zarafshadisaster mitigation and preparedness;
• A tested pilot methodology for the introduction of small group
29
communication in the Tajikistan context for community‐resilience to disasters;
• A better understanding of the needs of communities in Zarafshan Valley through monitoring of SMS messaging with the potential to harvest “user‐
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driven” innovations through expanded use of the technology. Project timeline
rs/ October Project launch trip to Tajikistan/ obile carrieEstablishment of relationships with m Identification of pilot community groups/
Training of pilot community groups/ nology Testing of GeoChat mapping tech
November / Continued community trainin
Community data observation/g
Troubleshooting as required
ecember alysis system
Development of comprehensive data anD through analysis of incoming data sets January Knowledge analysis of pilot produced/
Recommendations submitted to UN and other stakeholders for a Phase II
endar days due to compensate for holiday periods * Timeline extends beyond 90 cal during the period of the project.
31
Budget Total project cost: USD 202,993 Item ost pe h C r mont Total Personnel
Program Manager (InSTEDD) 3,500 10,500 Project Liaison (HFP) 2,500 7,500 Project manager (Tajikistan) 4,476 17,158 Tech Lead/QA/Testing (Tajikistan) 2,000 6,000
j kistan) Developer/Localization (Ta i 1,500 4,500 Ayni Liaison Staff‐Teacher (Tajkistan) 600 1,800
Administrator (Tajikistan) 500 1,500 Engineer (InSTEDD) 4,000 12,000
Material Hardware 12,000
Software 2,500 Reference material 1,000
SMS fees for two mobile carriers 2,500 Mobile phone purchase 4,500
T ravel Project team of 2 (US/Tajikistan, twice) 36,000 Engineering team of 2 (US/Tajikistan, once) 18,000 Local requirements 3,500 International meetings 4,800 Meetings In‐country training 1,200 Project review 1,500 Office Office rental 700 2,100
ic tion Furnishings 1,500
ommunab s
Local c a 200 600 Consum le 75 225 river 300 900
D
Subtotal 153,783
Miscellaneous (10%)
15,378
33,832 Overhead (20%) Total project costs USD 202,993
