Instruments to increase climate policy ambition before 2020
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Transcript of Instruments to increase climate policy ambition before 2020
06/07/2014
Pre-2020 Climate Policy: Instruments to increase ambition Öko Institut
Ecofys
ISI Fraunhofer-Institut
© ECOFYS | |
Steps in the project
06/07/2014
Screening current activities
• Selection of countries
• Selection and analysis of indicators for identifying country activities
Defining thematic areas
• Evaluation of country activities
• Definition of thematic areas
• Analysis of thematic areas
• Selection of thematic areas for detailed analysis
Detailed analysis of thematic areas
• Qualitative analysis
• Quantitative analysis
Objective: Identify best practice policies and their
potential impact on climate change mitigation pre-2020.
© ECOFYS | |
Step 1: Screening current activities
Changing Activity Energy efficiency Renewables Low carbon (other than renewables)
Non-energy
General Strategies and targets: 69%
Electricity
Performance standards
22%
Support schemes (e.g. feed-in
tariff)
49%
Tax exemptions
6%
Carbon pricing schemes 25%
Industry
Strategies
6%
Voluntary agreements
24%
Fuel quota
36%
CCS support schemes
<3%
Regulation
(Not evaluated)
Carbon pricing schemes: 31%
Buildings
Programmes
8%
Product standards and building codes
55%
Tax exemptions
40% Not evaluated
Energy taxes: (Not evaluated)
Transport
Modal shift programmes
14%
Vehicle standards
23%
Direct subsidies and fuel quota
50%
E-mobility programmes
14%
Energy taxes: (Not evaluated)
AFOLU Strategies
28%
Regulations / planning
39%
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0% 25% 50% 75% 100%Scale:
Percentage coverage of climate policies in 38 countries, including the largest emitters, derived from evaluating 1200 policies
© ECOFYS | | 06/07/2014
Step 2: Identification of thematic areas
Support for renewable electricity generation
•High activity rate
•High mitigation potential
•Short term implementation still possible, with long term transformational effect
Light-duty vehicle emissions
•Medium activity rate
•High mitigation potential
•Often cost neutral in the long term; potential to increase ambition till 2020
Energy efficient electric appliances
•High activity rate
•High mitigation potential
•Often cost neutral in the long term; potential to increase ambition till 2020
Methane from fossil fuel production
• Low activity rate
•High mitigation potential
• Low cost option
© ECOFYS | |
Support for renewable electricity generation
Best practice policies analysed
Germany, UK, China, Morocco
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2010 2020Frozen
Technology
2020Reference
2020 Policypotential
(Regional)
2020 Policypotential
(Best
practice)
Em
issio
ns fro
m e
lectr
icity g
enera
tion (
GtC
O2)
Annual emissions intensity trend for electricity production
Germany -2.1%
China -1.7%
UK -2.9%
Morocco -4%
Emissions reduction potential
from regional upscaling of best practice policies
3.1 GtCO2
Common policy design features Market instruments (Feed in tariffs, purchase guarantees); Public sector investment.
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© ECOFYS | |
Light-duty vehicle emissions
Best practice policies analysed
EU, Japan, U.S., China
Annual LDV trends
Fuel economy Emissions
EU +6.5% -1.3%
Japan +3.9% -2.3%
U.S. +4.0% -2.0%
China +6.7% +4.7%
Emissions reduction potential
from regional upscaling of best practice policies
0.8 GtCO2
(Reversing emissions trend for LDVs)
Common policy design features Standards with flexible compliance mechanisms and supporting policies (e.g. fuel taxation).
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2010 2020Frozen
Technology
2020Reference
2020Policies
(Regional)
2020Policies(Best
practice)
Glo
bal LD
V E
mis
sio
ns (
Gt
CO
2)
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© ECOFYS | |
Methane from fossil fuel production (reducing APG flaring)
Best practice policies analysed
Norway, Russia
Russian APG flaring rate
2010 2020 (with policy)
26% 5%
Emissions reduction potential
from upscaling of Russian trends to top-5 flaring countries
164 MtCO2
Common policy design features Permit and license system, requiring plan for gas utilisation.
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2020 FrozenTechnology
2020Reference
2020 PolicyPotential
Top-5
fla
ring c
ountr
ies e
mis
sio
ns (
Mt
CO
2e)
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© ECOFYS | |
Electric appliance energy efficiency
Best practice policies analysed
Japan, South Korea, EU
Annual Household Energy Efficiency trends
Emissions intensity Emissions
EU -1.9% +1.0%
Emissions reduction potential
from upscaling of EU trends to OECD countries
0.56 GtCO2
Common policy design features Standards with support from labelling schemes and tax incentives.
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2010 2020 FrozenTechnology
2020Reference
2020 Policypotential
Em
issio
ns fro
m e
lectr
icity d
em
and in r
esid
ential
and c
om
merc
ail s
ecto
r
(Gt
CO
2)
06/07/2014
© ECOFYS | |
Thank you
Öko Institut
Sean Healy
Ecofys
Thomas Day
ISI Fraunhofer-Institut
Vicki Duscha
06/07/2014