Institutions and Policies for Scientific Water Use: Game changers for climate risk management in agriculture

Jeremy Bird International Water Management Institute

CCAFS Workshop

Colombo, 2-3 December 2013

To feed 9 billion people in 2050, we need to produce 50-70% more food and raise nutrition levels… …and at the same time reverse environmental degradation …and reduce vulnerability to climate shocks

Humanity’s greatest challenge

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Water for a food-secure world

Climate change is an additional stress

AR5: Global surface temperature change for the end of the

21st century is likely to exceed 1.5oC

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Water for a food-secure world

Managing Variability

TOO LITTLE… TOO MUCH…

Water scarcity is already common Physical scarcity: Water resource development approaching or exceeding sustainable limits

Economic scarcity: Water resources can meet needs; but human, institutional and financial capital lacking to actually harness and use these resources

Institutional scarcity: Institutions limit access to certain groups and exclude others

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Annual Rainfall Trends at Nuwara-Eliya

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Changes in Climatic Zone Boundaries by 2050

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CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY HOTSPOTS -1

Exposure Index based on: Frequency of exposure to historical droughts, floods, cyclones

Sensitivity Index based on: Population density, % employed in agriculture, irrigation water availability, agricultural diversity (crops diversity, livestock farming, fishing)

Adaptive Capacity Index based on: education level, poverty incidence, level of infrastructure development

0 – lowest vulnerability 100 – highest vulnerability

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CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY HOTSPOTS -3

Anuradhapura

Nuwara-Eliya

Ratnapura

Highly vulnerable areas are:

• Typical farming areas

• Have low socioeconomic and infrastructural assets (low adaptive capacity)

• Show high levels of exposure to historical climate extremes

• Primary food producing areas - rely heavily on water availability for agriculture

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Myanmar Dry Zone – Variability of wet season onset

McCartney et al, 2013

One response has been irrigation, but… …. we seem to be reaching the limit of ‘formal’ irrigated area

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Instead, look at a broader perspective – the rainfed to irrigated continuum

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Need to re-think water storage to manage rainfall variability – but institutional complexity

Game changers for adaptive water management –

do the right incentives exist?

Sustainable Agricultural Intensification

Unleashing the potential of 2 billion small-scale farmers who collectively produce 70% of current

global food. WLE tackles 3 key issues.

1. Ensuring the efficient use of resources so that farmers can profit with limited

environmental impact.

2. Restoring productive capacity of degraded rainfed and irrigated landscapes and

impaired water systems to improve incomes and livelihoods of farmer.

3. Reducing risk and uncertainty of poor farmers within rainfed and irrigated

landscapes resulting in improved productivity through the sustainable management of

land, water and ecosystems.

What if the benefits of canal

commands increase to meet

higher demand within the

resilience of natural ecosystems?

Identify incentives to influence

behaviour at all levels

What if the potential for

increasing the productivity of

agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa

can be realized?

Identify policy measures and

business models

What if conjunctively managed surface

and ground water resources becomes a

reality?

Address both over-abstraction

and under-utilization

What if there is a greater balance

between natural capital and the

built environment?

Bringing ecosystem services

into the discussion on

sustainable intensification of

agriculture

Provisioning services

Regulatory services

Cultural services

Supporting services

Natural basin

Crops Hydropower

Industrial Regulation of

water balance

Erosion control

Climate

regulation Soil

formation

Nutrient

cycling

Recreation

Crops Hydropower

Industrial Regulation of

water balance

Erosion control

Climate

regulation Soil

formation

Nutrient

cycling

Recreation

Intensively utilized basin

Crops Hydropower

Industrial Regulation of

water balance

Erosion control

Climate

regulation Soil

formation

Nutrient

cycling

Recreation

Multifunctional “green” basin

Natural and built infrastructure… striking a

balance – increasing the total benefit stream

Examples of institutional and policy reforms leading to more sustainable agriculture

growth exist….

others are being developed…

and more are needed

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The Bright Spots Initiative

Yield before/without project (Mg ha-1

)

0 2 4 6 8 10

Rela

tive

yie

ld c

ha

nge a

fte

r/w

ith

pro

ject

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Maize

Sorghum/millets

Pulse crops

Rice

Wheat

Cotton

Comprehensive study of 286 cases in 57 countries where individuals and communities that have adopted sustainable crop intensification systems. Bright spots influenced: 12.6 million households covering 37 million hectares increased yields by an average of 79% with average carbon sequestration of 0.35 t C ha-1 yr-1.

Pretty et al., 2006; Noble et al, 2006

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– “Free’’ electricity led to groundwater

overdraft

– Recommended separation of electricity

supply to villages and pumps and

rationing of pump supply

– It has brought substantial improvement in

and outside the water sector:

• Ground water balance improved

• Electricity distribution losses down from 31%

to 21%

• Farmers get continuous good quality electricity

schedules. Domestic supply 24/7

• Yield increases -recent agricultural growth rate

is 9.6%, the highest in India.

#1: Jyotigram in Gujarat, India Upscaling the recovery of groundwater tables and reduced

electricity usage

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Ground water policy reform in West Bengal

1. Why groundwater (GW) based solution for Bengal? • High underutilized GW potential • Low agricultural productivity

2. Research led to removal of water permits and rationalization of capital costs of initial electrification including tariffs

3. Policy change could benefit more than 5.6 million smallholders farmers

4. After policy implementation, the demand for electric pumps has risen rapidly

5. Need efficient irrigation to minimize energy use

Back on the agenda in Ghana, Tanzania, Zambia, Ethiopia, Burkina Faso and elsewhere

Unlocking the potential for smallholder agriculture to

improve the lives of smallholder farmers in 5 countries in sub-Saharan

Africa and 2 states in India

Small-scale irrigation in Africa

(Giordano et al, 2012)

Smallholder Agricultural Water Management: Potential to Impact Millions

Outputs

SSA: motor pumps

• 122 million potential rural beneficiaries

• Net revenues up to US$7.5 billion/yr.

Tanzania: motor pumps could benefit 2-3

million people.

Medium

Low

High

CURRENT ACTIVITIES:

• Assessing regional prospects (Eastern Ganga initially)

• Developing conceptual hydrological modelling of pilot design

• Selection of pilot catchments (Ganga & Chao Phraya basins)

• Determine costs and benefits of options • Identifying institutional arrangements for sharing

benefits and costs between farmers and flood agencies

Currently

Wet Season

UTFI

Wet Season

UTFI

Dry Season

Basin Scale Conjunctive Use to Mitigate Floods, Improve Livelihoods and Increase Food Security. • Store extreme flood peaks underground • Use later for irrigation • Proof of concept stage

Flood

risk in the

EGB

Potential Solution: “Under Ground Taming of Floods”.

Harvest Floods Do Not Harvest

HARVESTING FUTURE FLOODS

Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand

In the economically important

rural –urban interface it is

difficult to find a reliable

unpolluted water source

Waste water

Piped water

Using waste as a resource?

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Towards Outcomes from Safe Wastewater Use in Agriculture

2010: Co-authored the World Bank policy on wastewater

2011: Member of the UN-Water Task Force on wastewater SDG targets

2012: MoU with WHO to institutionalize collaboration on safe wastewater use

2012: Co-authored the international chapter of USEPA-USAID Wastewater Use Guidelines

2012: Two IWMI researchers joined the WHO Global Expert Group on water quality

2012: FAO Farmer Field School manual based on IWMI research

2013: Regional wastewater reuse workshops involving 160 participants from 73 countries (together with UNU, UNEP, FAO and WHO)

2013: Partnering with FAO within WLE to update the AQUASTAT Wastewater database

2013: Joining UNEP’s Global Wastewater Initiative and UNEP’s initiative to write the First World Water Quality Assessment.

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Example of a business model currently being implemented in Ghana as a Private Public Partnership :

Fecal Sludge Valorization

Water for a food-secure world Water for a food-secure world

ICT – TO FARMERS IN AFRICA

Ethiopia, Mali, Egypt, Sudan

Cell Phones

in Africa From Remote Sensing data –

to crop/ water data

to simple messages to farmers

Photo: Tom Van Cakenberghe/IWMI

These examples

demonstrate there are

water management

solutions. Together with

reduction of food waste we

can feed 2 billion more

people while reducing

agriculture’s footprint and

reducing climatic risks

The CGIAR Research Program on

Water, Land and Ecosystems (WLE)

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