INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH India Banking...

INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH

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India Banking Trends Private Banks leading MCLR hike INDIA | FINANCIAL | SECTOR TREND|FORTNIGHTLY

5 October 2018

• Rising Yields: Higher inflation prospects, fears of excessive issuances of papers relative to absorption capacity, fiscal slippages and

rising crude oil prices resulted in hardening of bond yields. 10 year G‐sec increased by 160bps since Aug 2017 to 8.1% currently. While median MCLR of banks declined across tenors till December 2017, rising bond yield eventually fed into retail term deposit resulting in 1‐year median MCLR rising by 50 bps during January‐Sep 2018.

• Private Banks quicker to raise lending rate……Despite hike in MCLR, weighted average lending rate (WALR) on outstanding rupee loans continued follow downtrend as the old loans were reset at lower rates. After rising by 14 bps during January‐February 2018, WALR on fresh rupee loans declined sharply by 21 bps in March. However this was mainly driven by public banks where WALR declined by c.13bps and 4bps since Dec 2017 for outstanding loan and fresh loan respectively, compared to an increase of 8bps and 55 bps for private banks. Lending rates on fresh rupee loans for housing and vehicle loan have started to trend up

• ……and term deposit rate Weighted average term deposit rates for public and private banks have increased by 14bps and 31 bps respectively. As a result spread between yield on outstanding loan and term deposit rate for both public and private banks have compressed by similar amount. We believe banks with strong liability (CASA) portfolio should benefit under rising interest rate scenario

• Private Banks to lead margin expansion: Net interest margins is likely to expand for banks in rising interest rate scenario, we believe Private banks will lead margin expansion given their aggressive hike in MCLR and strong CASA growth, with in private banks Bandhan, DCB, Kotak and Yes Bank have been most aggressive, raising their 1 year MCLR in the range of 45‐75bps since Apr 2018. SBI has increased its 1Yr MCLR by 35bps

Chart of the week: Private Banks have been more aggressive in rising lending and term deposit rates as interest rate cycle reverses

Source: RBI, PhillipCapital India Research

Sujal Kumar (+ 9122 6246 4114) [email protected] Manish Agarwalla (+ 9122 6246 4125) [email protected]

‐0.13

0.08

‐0.07‐0.04

0.55

0.190.14

0.310.19

‐0.30

‐0.10

0.10

0.30

0.50

0.70

PSU Private SCBs

WALR‐outstanding rupee loans WALR‐Fresh rupee loans WADTDR

Change in WALR on Outstanding and Fresh loan and WADTDR since Dec 2017


Banking and Financial SECTOR UPDATE

Private Banks increased their term deposit rates ahead of PSU banks as bond yield started to rise. This reflected in uptick in WALR on fresh loans for private banks since Dec 2017 compared to decline for PSU banks

Weighted average Term Deposit rate Weighted average lending rate –Fresh rupee Loan

Source: RBI, PhillipCapital India Research However lending rate on outstanding loans continue to trend down across sector as old loans were reset at lower rates except for Large Industry and Personal Loans

Sector‐wise WALR of SCBs ‐ Outstanding Rupee Loans

Source: RBI, PhillipCapital India Research

5.05.56.06.57.07.58.08.59.0

Dec‐14

Feb‐15

Apr‐15

Jun‐15

Aug‐15

Oct‐15

Dec‐15

Feb‐16

Apr‐16

Jun‐16

Aug‐16

Oct‐16

Dec‐16

Feb‐17

Apr‐17

Jun‐17

Aug‐17

Oct‐17

Dec‐17

Feb‐18

Apr‐18

Jun‐18

Public Bank Private Bank Repo Rate

5.06.07.08.09.010.011.012.013.0

Dec‐14

Feb‐15

Apr‐15

Jun‐15

Aug‐15

Oct‐15

Dec‐15

Feb‐16

Apr‐16

Jun‐16

Aug‐16

Oct‐16

Dec‐16

Feb‐17

Apr‐17

Jun‐17

Aug‐17

Oct‐17

Dec‐17

Feb‐18

Apr‐18

Jun‐18

Public Bank Private Bank 10 Year G‐Sec

11.0 11.6 11.9 11.8 11.6 11.29.8

11.1 11.710.7 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.0 10.7

9.410.7 11.3

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Agri Industry(Large)

MSME Infra Trade ProfessionalServices

Housing Vehicle Education

Dec‐14 Mar‐16 Oct‐16 Mar‐17 Jun‐17 Sep‐17 Dec‐17 Mar‐18 June‐18

Personal Loan



Lending rates on fresh rupee loans for housing and vehicle loan have started to trend up with private Banks become more aggressive in raising MCLR rates compared to Public sector banks

WALR of Housing and Vehicle ‐ Fresh Rupee Loans Sanctioned Median 1 Year MCLR

Source: RBI, PhillipCapital India Research Bank wise change in 1 yr MCLR since April 2018 (bps)

Source:Company,PhillipCapital India Research; Red: Private Banks; Blue: Public Banks

10.511.7 12.3 12.5

8.8 9.611.1 10.8

02468101214

Personal Commercial Personal Commercial

Housing Vehicle

Dec‐14 Mar‐16 Oct‐16 Mar‐17 Sep‐17 Dec‐17 Mar‐18 Jun‐18

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

Apr‐20

16

Jun‐20

16

Aug‐20

16

Oct‐201

6

Dec‐20

16

Feb‐20

17

Apr‐20

17

Jun‐20

17

Aug‐20

17

Oct‐201

7

Dec‐20

17

Feb‐20

18

Apr‐20

18

Jun‐20

18

Aug‐20

18

Public Private

75

5345 43 40

35 3025

2015

10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80



Banking & Financial Services Trends



HFCs Funding and Liquidity Commercial paper as a % of Total Funding Asset Liability Gap (1 Yr) as a % of Total Asset

Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Funding HFCs Funding Profile Bank Exposure to NBFC

Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research

13.4%12.0%

9.8%

6.5%

2.8%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

HDFC Indiabulls Repco DHFL LIC

4.4% 2.9%

‐0.8%

‐8.0%

‐24.0%‐30.0%

‐25.0%

‐20.0%

‐15.0%

‐10.0%

‐5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Indiabulls HDFC DHFL LIC Repco

74%

45.4%36%

12% 11%

16%

33.8% 45%

43%

79%

10%

6.5%12%

13%

3%0%

14.3% 7%

31%

6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Repco DHFL Indiabulls HDFC LIC

Bank + NHB NCDs CPs Others

15%14% 13%

12%10%

9% 8% 8% 7% 7%6% 6% 6% 5%

4% 4%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Dena

Andh

ra SBI

PSU Avg

Canara

Sector

Average

Allahabad

DCB

ICICI

United Ba

nk

PVT Av

g

Axis

HDFC

Kotak

Indu

s

IDBI



Mutual Fund Exposure to NBFCs Portfolio breakup of Debt Mutual Fund CPs and CDs Outstanding (Rs bn)

Source: SEBI, RBI, PhillipCapital India Research Maturity and Rating Profile Maturity Profile of Commercial papers Rating Profile of Debt Mutual Fund Investments

Source: SEBI, RBI, PhillipCapital India Research

15.3 23.2 24.1 30.2 33.38.07.5 11.8 9.3 8.033.238.0

38.1 33.7 30.014.2

10.511.0 10.1 9.1

29.4 20.8 15.0 16.7 19.6

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Sep‐17 Dec‐17 Mar‐18 Jun‐18 Aug‐18CP CDs Corporate Debt PSU Bonds Others

‐

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Dec‐15

Feb‐16

Apr‐16

Jun‐16

Aug‐16

Oct‐16

Dec‐16

Feb‐17

Apr‐17

Jun‐17

Aug‐17

Oct‐17

Dec‐17

Feb‐18

Apr‐18

Jun‐18

Aug‐18

CP Outstanding CD Outstanding

Less than 90 days, 87%

90 days to 182 days, 11%

182 days to 1 year, 2%

G Secs & Tbills, 8%

A1 (CPs), 33%

A1 (CDs), 8%

AAA (Bonds), 23% AA (Bonds),

13% A (Bonds), 4%

BBB and Below, 0%

Others, 11%



Credit and Deposit Growth Credit and Deposit Growth (YoY) Credit growth by Sector (YoY)

Source: RBI, PhillipCapital India Research Rates 10 year GSec Rate SBI 1 year MCLR

Source: RBI, SBI, PhillipCapital India Research

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Sep‐12

Dec‐12

Mar‐13

Jun‐13

Sep‐13

Dec‐13

Mar‐14

Jun‐14

Sep‐14

Dec‐14

Mar‐15

Jun‐15

Sep‐15

Dec‐15

Mar‐16

Jun‐16

Sep‐16

Dec‐16

Mar‐17

Jun‐17

Sep‐17

Dec‐17

Mar‐18

Jun‐18

Sep‐18

Deposit (%) Credit (%) CD ratio (rhs)

‐10

‐5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Aug‐12

Nov

‐12

Feb‐13

May‐13

Aug‐13

Nov

‐13

Feb‐14

May‐14

Aug‐14

Nov

‐14

Feb‐15

May‐15

Aug‐15

Nov

‐15

Feb‐16

May‐16

Aug‐16

Nov

‐16

Feb‐17

May‐17

Aug‐17

Nov

‐17

Feb‐18

May‐18

Aug‐18

Agriculture Industry Retail Services

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

Nov‐15

Jan‐16

Mar‐16

May‐16

Jul‐1

6

Sep‐16

Nov‐16

Jan‐17

Mar‐17

May‐17

Jul‐1

7

Sep‐17

Nov‐17

Jan‐18

Mar‐18

May‐18

Jul‐1

8

Sep‐18

7.5%

7.7%

7.9%

8.1%

8.3%

8.5%

8.7%

8.9%

9.1%

9.3%

Apr‐16

Jun‐16

Aug‐16

Oct‐16

Dec‐16

Feb‐17

Apr‐17

Jun‐17

Aug‐17

Oct‐17

Dec‐17

Feb‐18

Apr‐18

Jun‐18

Aug‐18



Valuation Metrics P/B vs. RoE (Banks) P/B vs. RoA (Banks)

Source: PhillipCapital India Research Relative Price Performance Weekly Performance Monthly Performance

Source: PhillipCapital India Research

Axis

DCB

ICICI

IIBHDFC

Kotak

BOB

CBK

INBKPNB SBI

Yes

‐

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

‐5.0 ‐ 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

P/Ad

j BV

RoE

Axis

DCB

ICICI

IIBHDFC

Kotak

BOBCBK

INBK

PNB

SBI

Yes

‐

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

‐0.5 ‐ 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

P/Ad

j BV

RoA

‐5%‐3%‐3%‐3%

‐2%‐1%

0%0%

1%1%1%

2%2%

3%3%

4%5%

6%9%

‐6.0% ‐4.0% ‐2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%

KMBMUTHMGFLSGTFIIB

BOBAxis

MGMAMMFCPNBCIFCYESCBKSCUFDCBSBI

HDFCICICIINBK

‐30%‐21%

‐19%‐14%

‐13%‐12%

‐10%‐10%

‐7%‐7%‐6%‐6%‐4%‐4%

‐2%‐1%0%

3%4%

‐35.0% ‐30.0% ‐25.0% ‐20.0% ‐15.0% ‐10.0% ‐5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

YESBOB

MGFLPNB

MGMAINBKSCUFCIFCCBKIIB

KMBSGTFDCB

MMFCMUTH

SBIAxis

HDFCICICI



Valuation Table

Reco M.Cap (Rs. bn)

CMP (Rs.)

Target Price

Upside (%)

P/BV EPS BV

FY18 FY19 FY20 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY18 FY19 FY20

Private Banks Axis Bank BUY 1,495 582 630 8% 2.2 2.1 1.9 15.4 12.1 34.0 247 255 279 DCB Bank BUY 45 146 215 47% 1.6 1.4 1.2 8.0 9.8 12.4 91 102 123 ICICI Bank BUY 2,011 313 364 16% 1.1 1.1 1.0 10.5 13.5 20.9 164 172 185 IndusInd Bank BUY 971 1,614 2,170 34% 4.1 3.5 3.0 60.1 75.7 94.1 397 462 542 HDFC Bank BUY 5,336 1,964 2,530 29% 4.4 3.4 3.0 67.4 77.5 93.4 410 540 610 Kotak Bank BUY 2,073 1,087 1,545 42% 3.2 2.8 2.5 21.5 26.9 34.4 197 223 256 Yes Bank BUY 476 206 460 125% 1.8 1.6 1.2 18.4 23.6 29.0 108 127 169 PSU Banks Bank of Baroda BUY 265 100 190 90% 0.7 0.6 0.5 ‐9.2 8.4 27.9 152 161 187 Canara Bank Sell 165 225 325 45% 0.5 0.5 0.6 ‐19.1 ‐11.8 ‐3.3 427 412 406 Indian Bank BUY 113 236 425 80% 0.7 0.7 0.6 26.2 26.9 56.8 330 354 401 Punjab National Bank Neutral 178 65 104 61% 0.4 0.5 0.5 ‐44.5 ‐3.4 8.2 149 134 139 State Bank of India BUY 2,374 266 340 28% 0.8 0.8 0.7 ‐7.3 6.8 29.6 218 221 252 NBFCs

Cholamandalam BUY 182 1,161 1,960 69% 3.5 2.9 2.1 62.3 78.8 98.3 329 396 557 Mahindra Finance BUY 242 391 585 49% 2.6 2.3 2.0 13.8 21.8 27.8 151 173 195 Shriram City Union BUY 112 1,700 2,700 59% 2.0 1.8 1.6 100.8 143.5 177.9 844 946 1,097 Shriram Transport Finance BUY 244 1,076 1,925 79% 1.9 1.7 1.7 65.0 107.3 107.3 554 649 649 Manappuram Finance Neutral 62 74 125 69% 1.6 1.4 1.2 8.3 9.4 10.5 45 53 62 Magmafincorp BUY 32 120 250 108% 1.2 1.2 1.0 9.7 13.0 15.8 98 101 115 Muthooth Finance BUY 161 402 515 28% 2.1 1.8 1.6 43.0 41.9 41.9 194 224 254



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