Institut für Wasserbau Universität Stuttgart Lehrstuhl für ... · Institut für Wasserbau...
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Institut für WasserbauLehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie
Prof. Dr. rer. nat. Dr.-Ing. András Bárdossy
Universität Stuttgart
Integration and Calibration of a conceptual Rainfall-Runoff-Model in the framework of a Decision Support System for River Basin Management
Götzinger, J.; Bárdossy, A. [email protected]
Net income fromagriculture
Surface water availabilityand quality
Groundwater Flow &Transport
IWS-GW: MODFLOW/MT3D
Land use and landresources information -
regional scale:UHOH-IBS: SLISYS
Crop productivity- field scale:
TF:EPIC
river morphology/freshwater ecology
SJE:CASIMIR
Surface water fluxesand balance:
IWS-SW: HBV/LARSIM
Climate change, water policy and economic scenarios
Total water demand andwaste water load
SEI: WEAP
Agroeconomicvaluation model
UHOH-IFE/SOW-VU
Total Waterdemand
Groundwater availabilityand quality
Populationgrowth
Fooddemand
Foodproduction
Water treat-ment costs
Water quality insurface waters:
LH/AUTH: MONERIS
Economic security Ecological and hydrological securityFood security and social acceptance
Exchange Parameters: 1: Soil, terrain, climate and vegetation information; 2: yield, biomass,water and nutrient balance and transport, water consumption,
pesticide load; 3: yield, biomass,water and nutrient demand; 4: Surface water, sediment, pesticide and nutrient loss; 5: Recharge, load; 6: Water demand
from agriculture; 7: Reflux treated water and load; 8: Sediment and nutrient load; 9: Groundwater Surface Water interaction; 10 water flux in river network;
11 water availability in rivers, lakes and aquifers
Economy Landuse Water
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growth
Integrated evaluation of economic, ecological and social indicators
A Regional Model for Integrated Water Management in Twinned River Basins
Plochinge n 1981-1987, calibrate d for Rottw e il
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Abstract
In this approach the hydrological model HBV
was adapted to allow for a spatially highly
discretized simulation of daily groundwater
recharge that is transferred to the groundwater model which returns modeled base flow to
the flood-routing module of the rainfall-
runoff-model. Regionalisation and optimization
methods lead to an objective and efficient
calibration in spite of the large number ofparameters. The representation of model
parameters by transfer functions of catchment
characteristics enables a consistent parameter estimation. By
establishing such relationships, the model was calibrated for the parameters of the transfer function instead of the model parameters
themselves. Simulated annealing using weighted Nash-Sutcliffe-
coefficients of variable temporal aggregation assists in an efficient
parameterisation. ww.rivertwin.org
MOSDEW(Model for Sustainable Development
of Watersheds)
• GIS-based user interface, database
and external submodels
• coupled submodels are started in
case of a scenario run, e.g.:
hydrological model HBV
Location of project basinsSubmodel interfaces in MOSDEW
Topography of upper Neckar catchment (3211 km2)
MONERIS
QUAL2K
WEAP
CASIMIRCoupling of the water balance model
Simulated discharge (m3/s) using regionalised parameters
Simulated discharge and baseflow (m3/s) at calibration station
Annual groundwater recharge HBV (left) and Armbruster (right)
Model concept HBV
• Grid-based (1 km2)
• Fully distributed process description
• Parameter estimation by transfer
functions of catchment characteristics
• Calibration of the parameters of
the transfer functions instead of the model parameters
1SkQ percperc ⋅=
222SkQ ⋅=
α+
⋅=1
111SkQ
),,( soiltypelanduseflowtimeGp =
Central Europe:Neckar basin
Central Asia:Chirchik basin
West Africa:Oueme basin
Regionalized parameters and basis for regionalization
Parameter Regionalized by
Upper reservoir, non-linear recession constant Flow time, land use
Upper reservoir, non-linear recession exponent Land use
Upper reservoir, linear percolation constant Field capacity, wilting point
Upper reservoir starting water level Soil class
MODFLOW
Soil-Parameters from SLYSIS
Climatic Variables from Downscaling
Groundwater Recharge
Baseflow
Input:
• statistical downscaling
and External Drift Kriging
• regional soil and
landuse database
information system
Output:
• spatially distributed
groundwater recharge =
boundary condition for
the groundwater model
returning baseflow• discharge at river network nodes
Results
• Discharge in similar, uncalibrated catchments can be
simulated using a priori defined transfer functions of readily
available catchment characteristics (Regionalisation)
• Model performance suited well for river basin management,
water availability, water quality and habitat ecology simulations
• Areal groundwater recharge simulations reproduce model results of Armbruster (2002)108 mm107 mmStandard deviation
207 mm175 mmMean
References:
Armbruster, V.: Grundwasserneubildung in Baden- Württemberg, Freiburger Schriften zur Hydrologie (17), Institut für Hydrologie, Freiburg, 2002.
Bergström, S.: The HBV model. In: Singh, V.P., (Ed.), Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology, Water Resources Pub., Littleton, CO, pp. 443-476, 1995.
Hundecha, Y. and Bárdossy, A.: Modeling of the effect of land use changes on the runoff generation of a river basin through parameter regionalization of a watershed model, Journal of Hydrology, 292, 281-295, 2004.
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•Local variations through different model approaches (1 km2: r=0,44)
• Large-scale pattern matches well (25 km2: r=0,7)
Discharge