UnicornHuntr:  Predict  the  success  of  early-­‐stage  startups  

Yun  Lee  +  

There  were  514,000  new  business  owners  in  2012    

…but  half  of  all  businesses  fail  within  five  years  

−  U.S.  Bureau  of  Labor  StaKsKcs  

Random  forest  classifier  •  Train/validate:  2+  year-­‐old  startups  (n  =  4565)  •  Predict:  new  startups  (n  =  1760)    Numerical  features  •  expansion  rate  •  total  pre  series-­‐A  funding    Categorical  features  •  industries  •  business  models  •  locaHon  

5-­‐fold  cross  validaKon  accuracy  =  0.8  

Mobile  E-­‐commerce  

PharmaceuKcals  

Lending,  Tech  support  

Biotechnology  

Drones  Health  insurance  

Medical  diagnosKcs  

Yun  Lee,  Ph.D.  Insight  Data  Science  Fellow