In#Search#of#“The#Middle#Class”:# CanadiansUnder#Financial ... ·...

In Search of “The Middle Class”: Canadians Under Financial Stress

Wave 2:

Tes<ng Possible Pla@orm Policies April 2015

Methodology

2

• Methodology/Sample: Online survey of randomly-‐selected sample of 1,007 adult (18+) Canadians

•  Field Window: March 16 – 18, 2015 Wave 1 of study (N=1,003) conducted November 3 – 5, 2014.

No notable changes in results since Wave 1. New quesQons added about Next GeneraQon, Business, Children, & a large number of PotenQal Policies.

•  Reliability: As a guideline, a probability sample of this size carries a margin of error of ± 3.1%, 19 =mes out of 20. Margin of error is larger for sub-‐segments. Data weighted by most current gender, age, & region Census data, to ensure sample reflects actual popula=on of adult Canadians.

Region Number of interviews Margin of error

Atlan=c Canada 102 ± 9.8%

Quebec 201 ± 6.9%

Ontario 302 ± 5.6%

Prairies (Man/Sask) 101 ± 9.7%

Alberta 150 ± 8.0%

Bri=sh Columbia 151 ± 8.0%

Canada 1,007 ± 3.1%

Key Themes

3

Key Themes

4

•  Half of Canadians Self-‐IdenQfy as Middle Class

•  But, Middle Class Issues are Canadian Issues are Middle Class Issues

•  Because Most Canadians Feeling Financial Stress from All Corners •  Immediate and Long-‐Term Personal Finance Issues Reign

•  Middle Class not seen as Secure, A`racQve, A`ainable DesQnaQon

•  Financial Pinch, Low OpQmism re: Future •  Low Confidence in Social Mobility

•  No Magic Policy Bullet to Help Financially-‐Strained Public

5

Toss Out the Old Adage – Not Everyone Feels Middle Class

6

Q2: Thinking about both your social and financial place in society, which of the following would you say best describes you and your household? Base: Total Sample (n=1,007)

Half Of Canadians Self-‐IdenQfy As Middle Class, But 46% IdenQfy as Working Class or Poor • Households in $100K+ (73%) and $60-‐100K (61%) income brackets view themselves as middle class,

whereas those Under $60K do not (32%). • Quebecers (72%) are much more likely to self-‐iden=fy as middle class, compared to a slim majority in Man/Sask (51%) and less than half in the Atlan=c (47%), Alberta (47%), BC (47%), and Ontario (42%).

3

51%

38%

8%

Upper class

Middle class

Working class

Poor

7

Top Current Issues Facing Canadians are Pocketbook Issues, Regardless of Self-‐IdenQfied Class or Income Bracket

8

Q1: What are the biggest issues for you and your family these days? Base: Total Sample (n=1,007). Mul<ple Men<ons Allowed.

Top Current Issues Facing Canadians: Pocketbook Issues Dominate

30% Money

(Personal Finances & Income)

43% (Rising) Cost of

Living

38% Cost of Food & Groceries

30% Health System/Costs

26% Personal Health

27% Taxes & Gas Prices

24% UQliQes & Bills

23% Economy & ReQrement (Cost)

22% Personal Debt (Managing/Payments)

9

Q3: Thinking about the cost of living and your personal financial situaJon, are you currently... Base: Total Sample (n=1,007)

Few Canadians Feel Financially Secure

3%

31%

52%

14%

8%

44%

38%

10%

Falling behind on your monthly expenses

Just ge^ng by, with no savings

Ge^ng ahead, with some savings

Financially secure

Canadians Self-‐Iden=fied "Middle Class"

Financial strain is universal, as few Financially Secure: 9% of $60-‐100K Income Bracket & 23% of $100K+ Income Bracket

10

GeneraQonal YardsQcks: Progress & ExpectaQons

11

Q4: How strongly do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? Base: Split sampled quesJon: Half the sample asked one *BeRer Off* quesJon (n=504); Half asked *Worse Off* quesJon (n=503)

Canadians Split, Feel Li`le Financial Progress Compared to Parents. Middle Class Feel Be`er, Working Class Feel Worse

18%

18%

32%

39%

36%

28%

14%

15%

I am financially WORSE OFF than my parents were

I am financially BETTER OFF than my parents were

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

57%

50%

• Self-‐idenQfed Middle Class (68%) feel becer off, but Working Class (66%) and Poor (81%) feel worse.

12

Q4: How strongly do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? Base: Split sampled quesJon: Half the sample asked one *BeRer Off* quesJon (n=504); Half asked *Worse Off* quesJon (n=503) New ques<on in Wave 2

Pessimism for the Next GeneraQon – Across All Demographics

21%

6%

51%

33%

25%

45%

3

16%

The next generaQon will be WORSE OFF than my generaQon

The next generaQon will be BETTER OFF than my generaQon


39%

72%

13

PerspecQves on Employment Stability, Mobility, & Pay are Grim

14

Q4: How strongly do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? Base: Employed N=569, Unemployed N=52

Pessimism about Job Hunt & PromoQons, And Salary Not Keeping Pace with Cost of Living

45%

8%

8%

40%

37%

38%

13%

33%

25%

2

22%

29%

My salary has not increased to the same degree that my cost of living has increased

[IF EMPLOYED]

I am opQmisQc about genng promoted at my current job [IF EMPLOYED]

I am opQmisQc about finding a job [IF UNEMPLOYED]


45%

46%

85%

15

Financial Stress about the Future

16

Q4: How strongly do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? Base: Total Sample (n=1,007)

More than Three-‐Quarters of Canadians are Worried about Health Care Costs & ReQrement Savings as They Age

37%

33%

40%

49%

18%

16%

5

2

I’m worried about having enough savings for when I want to reQre

I’m worried about the cost of healthcare for me/my family as we/

they get older


82%

77%

17

Canadian Parents Financially Stressed about their Kids

18

Q4: How strongly do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? Base: EducaJon quesJon asked of Parents of children of any age (n=595). Work quesJon asked of Parents of children aged 18+ (n=352).

Canadian Parents also Concerned about their Kids: Costs of EducaQon and Finding a Job aqer School

52%

47% 12%

18%

35%

34%

31%

32%

22%

16%

My kids are having trouble finding work in their field

I won’t be able to afford post-‐secondary educaQon for my kids


19

Pessimism about Middle Class, And Low Confidence in Social Mobility

20

7%

17%

9%

39%

53%

39%

41%

24%

38%

13%

6%

14%

I’m opQmisQc about the future of Canada’s middle class

I am confident that *my kids* can move beyond their current socio-‐economic class

through hard work

I am confident *I* can move beyond my current socio-‐economic class through hard

work


48%

70%

46%

Q4: How strongly do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? Base: Total Sample (n=1,007). *My Kids* quesJon: New ques<on in Wave 2. Asked of Parents with children of any age. (n=595)

Low Confidence in Social Mobility & Pessimism about Middle Class, But Parents Moderately OpQmisQc about Own Children

• Self-‐idenQfed Poor (37%) are not confident about personal social mobility. Working Class (46%) and Middle Class (50%) are split. The Upper Class (87%) is confident.

• Self-‐idenQfed Poor Parents (58%) are least confident about social mobility of their children. Parents in Working (70%), Middle (70%), and Upper (89%) Class categories moderately confident.

• Self-‐idenQfied Working Class (42%) least op=mis=c about future of middle class. The Poor (46%) and Middle Class (48%) are split. The Upper Class (63%) are moderately op=mis=c.

21

How do our Leaders Help a Public under Financial Stress? No Magic Policy Bullet.

22

Q4: How strongly do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? Base: Total Sample (n=1,007) Business ques<on = new ques<on in Wave 2.

Income Equality is an Important Issue, And The Public is PoinQng Fingers at The Very Rich & Business

34%

38%

37%

51%

48%

51%

13%

12%

11%

2

2

1

Businesses are not sharing enough of their financial success with the majority

of their employees

Income inequality is no longer about the gap between the rich and the poor, but rather the very rich and everyone else

Income inequality is an important public issue


88%

85%

86%

23

Q5: What type of impact – if any – do you think each of the following iniJaJves would have on you and your family, if introduced? (n=1,007) New ques<on in Wave 2. *Net Intensity Score = Very Posi<ve Impact minus Very Nega<ve Impact

Policy-‐TesQng – Top Tier: Public Feels Middle Income Tax Cut, Investments in Health Care & CPP Would Have Most PosiQve Impact

36%

31%

30%

48%

47%

40%

5

9%

10%

3

4

3

5

5

10%

3

4

7%

Lower income taxes on Canadians in the middle

income brackets.

Increased funding of Canada’s health care

system.

Increased funding of the Canadian Pension Plan

(CPP).

Very posi=ve impact Somewhat posi=ve impact Somewhat nega=ve impact Very nega=ve impact No impact Don't know / Unsure

+33

+27

+27

Net Intensity Score*

24

Q5: What type of impact – if any – do you think each of the following iniJaJves would have on you and your family, if introduced? (n=1,007) Net Intensity Score = Very Posi<ve minus Very Nega<ve. *Income spliXng included following defini<on: “i.e. allowing the spouse in the higher income tax bracket to move to a lower tax bracket by assigning some of their income to the spouse in the lower tax bracket (when doing their tax returns).”

Policy-‐TesQng: Middling Scores, Pessimism for PSE & ReQrement Tax Breaks, Income-‐Splinng, Infrastructure, Taxes on Rich/Business

24%

28%

22%

21%

20%

20%

36%

36%

45%

44%

36%

31%

11%

10%

10%

9%

9%

19%

3

8%

6

5

4

7%

20%

13%

11%

13%

23%

15%

5%

5%

7%

8%

7%

8%

Tax deducQons for reduced post-‐secondary educaQon tuiQon

Higher income taxes on Canadians in the highest income brackets

Higher tax incenQves for reQrement savings

Increased funding to repair & build transport, transit, other

infrastructure

Reducing income tax for families w/ children via income splinng*

Higher corporate taxes


+21

+16

+16

Net Intensity Score

+20

+16

+13

25

Q5: What type of impact – if any – do you think each of the following iniJaJves would have on you and your family, if introduced? (n=1,007) New ques<on in Wave 2. Net Intensity Score = Very Posi<ve Impact minus Very Nega<ve Impact.

Policy-‐TesQng – Bo`om Tier: General Public PessimisQc about Impact PotenQal of Child-‐Focused Funding/Tax Breaks & Business IncenQves

16%

16%

15%

16%

14%

12%

12%

34%

32%

32%

40%

38%

40%

40%

12%

11%

8%

11%

11%

9%

11%

4

5

5

6

5

4

4

28%

30%

33%

18%

19%

28%

22%

6

5

6

10%

13%

7%

11%

Incr. funding to create affordable day care / child care spaces

Incr. tax deducQons for children’s acQvity expenses

Increased tax deducQons for child care expenses

Financial and tax incenQves to businesses if they hire more employees

Financial and tax incenQves to businesses to encourage producQvity improvements

Financial and tax incenQves to new businesses

Financial and tax incenQves to business to encourage research and innovaQon


+12

+9

+8

Net Intensity Score

+11

+10

+8

+10

ImplicaQons for PoliQcs & Policy

26

•  A CauQon Flag for Invoking “The Middle Class”

•  Logical Focus from PoliQcal and Policy PerspecQve •  But, Less as a Group of People (Only RepresenQng Half) •  More as a Great Home and DesQnaQon to Strive For

•  Restore Image of “Middle Class” as Secure, A`racQve, A`ainable with Language and Policies about:

•  Helping, Strengthening, and Expanding “The Middle Class” •  Relieving Financial Stress = Logical First Step, Speaks to All •  Difficult Challenge, No Magic Policy Bullet re: Appeal, Impact, Credit

•  Must Restore Faith in Merit-‐Based Social Mobility

•  A Difficult Challenge, but Exclusionary and Dangerous to Neglect

www.pollara.com

www.pollara.com

Craig Worden

ExecuQve Vice President [email protected] 416.921.0090 Ext. 2235

In#Search#of#“The#Middle#Class”:# CanadiansUnder#Financial ... ·...

Documents

Transcript of In#Search#of#“The#Middle#Class”:# CanadiansUnder#Financial ... ·...