Input-output analysis for assessing socioeconomic sustainability of sugarcane bioethanol production in MozambiqueMarcelo Cunha, Luiz Gustavo A. de Souza & André Argollo

Input-output analysis for assessing socioeconomic sustainability of sugarcane bioethanol production in Mozambique

INTRODUCTION

SOCIAL ACCOUNT MATRIX (SAM)

INPUT-OUTPUT APPROACH

MAIN RESULTS

FINAL CONSIDERATIONS

INTRODUCTION

THE GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE BIOENERGY PROJECT (GSB)

Feasibility and desirability of sustainable bioenergy-

intensive future

It is physically possible for bioenergy to sustainably

meet a substantial fraction of future demand for

energy services (≥ 25% of global mobility or

equivalent by 2050) while feeding humanity and

meeting other needs from managed lands, preserving

wildlife habitat, and maintaining environmental

quality?

BIOENERGY CONTRIBUTION OF LATIN AMERICA, CARIBBEAN AND AFRICA TO THE GSB PROJECT - LACAf-Cane-I

Sustainable production of Bioenergy

Availability of fertile land with good climatic conditions

Land for Bioenergy will originate from pasture

Potencially available land for bioenergy until 2050 (440

Mha) FAO (2007)

LA & Caribbean (250 Mha) and Africa (180 Mha) FAO

(2007)

LACAf-Cane, evaluate bioethanol production from

sugarcane and bioelectricity

BIOENERGY CONTRIBUTION OF LATIN AMERICA, CARIBBEAN AND AFRICA TO THE GSB PROJECT - LACAf-Cane-I

The focus of the LACAf-Cane-I project is on sugarcane and

other energy crops

The produced feedstock is expected to be used for

bioenergy: bioethanol (for gasoline substitution) and

bioelectricity, both using advanced first and second-

generation technologies

WHY MOZAMBIQUE?

WHY MOZAMBIQUE?

Biofuels are perceived to be a good alternative to fossil

fuels and a pathway out of poverty for developing

countries (Schut et al., 2010)

Biofuels may provide new incentives for investments in

agricultural research and development, offer farmers a

new source of income (Smeets et al., 2007)

Mozambique has explored the potential for renewable

energy options to meet its energy needs (Jumbe et al.,

2009)

WHY MOZAMBIQUE?

Is one of the fastest growing economies in sub-Saharan

Africa, with a growth of around 7% per year since 90’s.

(World Bank, 2008)

Despite having much more propitious agro-climatic

conditions, vulnerability to chronic food insecurity is

highest in the Northern provinces

36 million ha are arable, of which approximately 10% is

under cultivation

WHY MOZAMBIQUE?

Because of the country’s fertile lands and favorable

climate, Mozambique is attractive for agriculture, which

employs 80% of the estimated 8.8 million labor force, the

remaining 20% is involved in the industrial, transport,

communication and service sectors (Schut et al., 2010;

World Bank, 2009)

Mozambique is 100% dependent on oil imports. In 2007

around 17% of total imports value was spent in fuel and

energy

WHY MOZAMBIQUE?

Biofuels are perceived to be a good alternative to fossil

fuels and a pathway out of poverty for developing

countries (Schut et al., 2010)

Biofuels may provide new incentives for investments in

agricultural research and development, offer farmers a

new source of income (Smeets et al., 2007)

Mozambique has explored the potential for renewable

energy options to meet its energy needs (Jumbe et al.,

2009)

WHY MOZAMBIQUE?

Mozambique produces mainly sugarcane for sugar

production

Initiated in 2004, biofuel production originally dominated

by small-scale farmers, now by foreign commercial

Originally the focus was primarily on jatropha biodiesel,

now there is increased emphasis on bioethanol derived

from sugarcane and sorghum

Source: Africametro (2015)

Build a framework to analyze sustainable production

of bioethanol

Evaluate socioeconomic impacts

The importance of households consumption

Inter-sectorial relationship

Analysis of different scenarios

OBJECTIVES

THE SOCIAL ACCOUNT MATRIX FOR MOZAMBIQUE

Channing Arndt & James Thurlow (2007)

United Nations University’s World Institute for

Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER)

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Use Tables from National Account

Govenment Budget

Payment Balance

54 products/sectors

METICAL MOZAMBIQUE = 0,0251 EURO

X1 Q1 amaiz Maize X28 Q28 abeve BeveragesX2 Q2 asorg Sorghum and millet X29 Q29 aptob Tobacco curing and processingX3 Q3 arice Rice X30 Q30 apcot Cotton ginningX4 Q4 acass Cassava X31 Q31 atext Textiles and clothingX5 Q5 aroot Other root crops X32 Q32 aleat Leather productsX6 Q6 abean Pulses X33 Q33 awood Wood productsX7 Q7 agnut Groundnuts X34 Q34 apapr Paper and publishingX8 Q8 acash Cashews X35 Q35 afuel Other fuelsX9 Q9 aoils Oilseeds X36 Q36 achem ChemicalsX10 Q10 avege Vegetables X37 Q37 anmet Non-metalsX11 Q11 afrui Fruits X38 Q38 ametl MetalsX12 Q12 altea Leaf tea X39 Q39 amach Machinery and vehiclesX13 Q13 atoba Tobacco X40 Q40 aoman Other manufacturingX14 Q14 asugr Sugarcane X41 Q41 aelec ElectricityX15 Q15 acott Cotton X42 Q42 awatr WaterX16 Q16 aocrp Other crops X43 Q43 acons ConstructionX17 Q17 acatt Cattle X44 Q44 atrad Retail and wholesale tradeX18 Q18 apoul Poultry X45 Q45 ahotl Hotels and cateringX19 Q19 aoliv Other livestock X46 Q46 atran Transport and storageX20 Q20 afore Forestry X47 Q47 acomm Communication and postX21 Q21 afish Fisheries X48 Q48 afsrv Financial servicesX22 Q22 angas Natural gas X49 Q49 areal Real estateX23 Q23 amine Other mining X50 Q50 absrv Business servicesX24 Q24 ameat Meat, fish and dairy X51 Q51 apadm Government administrationX25 Q25 agmll Grain milling X52 Q52 aeduc EducationX26 Q26 apsug Sugar refining X53 Q53 aheal HealthX27 Q27 afood Other food processing X54 Q54 aosrv Other private services

THE SOCIAL ACCOUNT MATRIX FOR MOZAMBIQUE

MATRIZ DE CONTABILIDADE SOCIAL PARA MOÇAMBIQUE

ACTIVITIES PRODUCTS FACTORS FIRMS HOUSEHOLDS GOVERNMENT INVESTMENTS ROW TOTAL

ACTIVITIES 311,851 311,851

PRODUCTS 121,387 66,425 166,101 24,598 31,754 63,959 474,224

FACTORS 190,464 4,936 195,400

FIRMS 56,952 4,691 2,601 64,245

HOUSEHOLDS 123,313 47,852 4,436 175,601

GOVERNMENT 16,996 1,850 9,427 4,861 11,314 44,448

SAVINGS 3,288 4,639 8,859 -1,720 14,968 30,034

ROW 78,951 13,285 3,678 1,865 97,779

TOTAL 311,851 474,224 195,400 64,245 175,601 44,448 30,034 97,779 1,393,581

INPUT-OUTPUT APPROACH

Miller & Blair (1985)

vector (nx1), total value of sectorial production

vector (nx1), final demand values

matrix (nxn), technical coefficients of production

Total needed production to satisfy the final demand, where

Is the matrix of direct and indirect multipliers, or Leontief

Matrix

INPUT-OUTPUT APPROACH

Miller & Blair (1985)

Induced effect, the households consumption must be

endogeneized

INPUT-OUTPUT APPROACH

Guilhoto & Sesso Filho (2005) estimation procedure

Ethanol coefficients from Brazillian I-O Matrix

Production Multipliers – Type I and II

Building Scenarios

INPUT-OUTPUT MATRIX FOR MOZAMBIQUE

I-O MATRIX

amaiz asorg ariceacass

aroot

abean

agnut

acash

aoils

avege

afrui

altea

atoba

asugr

acott

aocrp

acatt

apoul

aoliv

afore

afish

angas

amine

ameatagmll

apsugafoodabeveaptobapcot

atextaleat

awood

apapr

afuel

achem

anmet

ametl

amach

aoman

aelec

awatr

acons

atrad

ahotl

atran

acomm

afsrv

areal

absrv

apadm

aeducaheal

aosrv aETH

0.000

2.000

4.000

MP-I

INPUT-OUTPUT MATRIX – TYPE I PRODUCTION MULTIPLIER

INPUT-OUTPUT MATRIX – TYPE II PRODUCTION MULTIPLIER

amaiz asorgariceacass

aroot

abean

agnut

acash

aoils

avege

afrui

altea

atoba

asugr

acott

aocrp

acatt

apoul

aoliv

afore

afish

angas

amine

ameat

agmllapsug

afoodabeveaptobapcotatextaleat

awood

apapr

afuel

achem

anmet

ametl

amach

aoman

aelec

awatr

acons

atrad

ahotl

atran

acomm

afsrv

areal

absrv

apadm

aeduc

ahealaosrv

aETHHouseh

0.000

2.000

4.000

MP-II

FINAL CONSIDERATIONS

INITIAL STAGE

NEXT STEPS

BUILDING AND EVALUATING SCENARIOS

Grazie!

Luiz Gustavo Antonio de Souza

luizgustavoeco@gmail.com