Innovative measurements in NHDRs: combining creativity with solid

methodological ground

“Making an Impact with National Human Development Reporting”, Training organized by HDRO and BRC, Almaty, 11-

15 November 2013

Mihail Peleah, Human Development Programme and Research Officer, UNDP Bratislava Regional Center

“In God we trust; all others must bring data.”

Phenomenon

Measurement

Evaluation

Action

every indicator is a proxy

context and knowledge are important

opportunity costs

Specific

Measurable

Achievable

Relevant

Time-bound

Data and indicators

• Data – the status of phenomenon – number – meaningless out of context

• Indicator – the status and tendency of phenomenon – put data in a context extracts meaning– combination of two+ sets of data– progress or regress vis-à-vis certain targets

• Ogre at swamp• Princess in tower

• Helmet, sword

• Saved princess• Positive feelings

• Love• Transformation• Reproduction

Sustainability?• Shrek 2• Shrek the Third

Externalities?

To live "happily ever after."

Indicators based monitoring chains

Input Output Outcome Impact

Intermediate Final

Financial, physical

resources

Goods and services

produced by inputs

(classrooms built,

textbooks provided)

Access to, use of, and

satisfaction with services

(enrolment, repetition,

dropout rates)

Effect on dimension

of well-being

(literacy)

Plus sustainability and positive externalities

What exactly are we measuring?

• Status of phenomenon– Stock– Flow– Input / Output / Outcome

• Sustainability of status– Ability to sustain– Efficiency / Effectiveness

• Process– The way status was achieved– Dynamics, trends

Measuring sustainable human development

• Triple nature of Sustainable Human Development– Process: type of development, focused on people

(“development of people, for people, by the people”)

– Status: achieved [average] level of human development in country

– Sustainability: ability to sustain achieved status, cost at which it is achieved

Kyrgyzstan: Why Local HDI and Municipal Capacity Index?

• To contrast human development inputs and outcomes at the level of municipality– Municipal Capacity Index—what we have in

municipality?– Local HDI—what we achieved?

• Clustering municipalities, not ranking– Data limitations– Avoiding rank run

Kyrgyzstan: Local Self-Governance

Social Exclusion Index:Why the index?

• Objective and multidimensional measure of social exclusion

• Measures status excluded or non-excluded, not ‘perception’ or ‘risk’

• Applicable for Europe and Central Asia region• Useful for policymaking

Drivers of social exclusionSpecific local conditions

Social exclusion status

Individual characteristics

interact with

in context of

…and result in

Structures and institutions; values and behavior patterns; policiesDrivers are external factors, influenced by legacies, that either speed up or slow down the process of individual vulnerabilities turning into social exclusion

(social exclusion risk factors), like poor education, disability, minority status

Predominant industry, single or multiple employment opportunities, local infrastructures, history of violent conflict or environmental disaster

of the individual in three dimensions—exclusion from economic life, social services, and civic and social participation

Social Exclusion Chain

Different combinations of individual risks, drivers and local context results in different levels of social

exclusion

If you are young person, with low education, living in village, with single company—you face high risk of exclusion

…and secondary education doesn’t help much in these conditions…

…while vibrant business environment makes a lot of difference

…economic centers offer more opportunities (even with low education)

…and much more if you are educated

++

++ + +

Source: RHDR “Beyond Transition: Toward Inclusive Societies”, 2011

Armenia AHDI: Why the index?

• Measure what achieved and at what cost• Measure of development: level and ability to

sustain• Proposed for Armenia, currently tested for Europe

• Still a proposal, with open questions: – Sustainability indicators– Ideal vs Available indicators– Dynamics and Substitutions

AHDI Construction

Status

Affordability

Context

HDI EHDI

AHDI

ArmeniaHuman Development Index 0.716 4

Extended Human Development Index 0.733 5

AHDI Affordable Human Development Index 0.571 6

% losses due to non-sustainability 22% 7

Status Life expectancy index 0.855 Education index 0.758 GNI index 0.566 Environment Index 0.786

Life expectancy at birth 74.2 Mean Years of Schooling 10.8 GNI per capita (USD PPP) 5,188 Improved water source (% of population with access)

98.6

Expected Years of Schooling 12 Air pollution PM10 (micrograms per cubic meter)

56.2

Natural resources depletion (% of GNI)

0.9

Forest area (% of base year, 1990) 75.0Waste management, Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access)

90.2

Affordability Health Affordability 0.931 Education Affordability 0.924 Standards of living Sustainability

0.790 Environmental Affordability 0.544

Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY), per 1000 pers

32 Persistence to last grade of primary, total (% of cohort)

97.7 General government gross debt (% of GDP)

35.1 Water withdrawal - Annual freshwater withdrawals, total (% of internal resources)

36.4

Energy use (kg of oil equivalent) per $1,000 GDP (constant 2005 PPP)

175 Terrestrial and marine protected areas (% of total territorial area)

8.0

Share of energy from renewable sources

35.7

ContextHealth expenditure, private (% of GDP) 2.6 Public spending on education, total (%

of GDP)3.2 HDI Loss due to inequality in income (%) 10.8 National Council on Sustainable

DevelopmentCurrent

Health expenditure, public (% of GDP) 2.0 HDI Loss due to inequality in education (%)

6.5 GINI index 30.9 Total Ecological Footprint (global ha per capita)

1.7

Health expenditure, total (% of GDP) 4.4 PISA Score on Mathematics .. Multidimensional poverty index (%) 0.0 Total biocapacity (global ha per capita) 0.7

HDI Loss due to inequality in life expectancy (%)

14.9 Pupil-teacher ratio, primary 19.3 Final consumption expenditure, etc. (% of GDP)

90.8 Biocapacity (Deficit) or Reserve (global ha per capita)

-1.0

Physicians (per 1,000 people) 3.8 Pupil-teacher ratio, secondary 6.7 Electric power transmission and distribution losses (% of output)

14.9 Bird species, threatened 12.0

Nurses and midwives (per 1,000 people)

4.8 Fixed broadband Internet subscribers (per 100 people)

2.8 Informal payments to public officials (% of firms)

16.0 Mammal species, threatened 9.0

Hospital beds (per 1,000 people) 3.7 Internet users (per 100 people) 44.0 Unemployment, total (% of total labor force)

28.6 Plant species (higher), threatened 1.0

Improved water source (% of population with access)

98.6 Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people)

125.0 Unemployment, youth total (% of total labor force ages 15-24)

45.5

Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access)

90.2 Firms offering formal training (% of firms)

30.4 CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita)

1.585

Long and healthy life Knowledge A decent standard of living Clean and balanced environment

Sustainability

Dev

elop

men

t

0.000

0.250

0.500

0.750

1.000Long and healthy life

Knowledge

A decent standard of living

Clean and balancedenvironment

Extended Human DevelopmentIndex

AHDI Affordable HumanDevelopment Index

Why the ‘micronarratives’?

• QxQ—combine the best from Qualitative and Quantitative research

• Zoom in and Zoom out—see the pattern and investigate a

case study• Suitable for all stage of policy process:

– Understanding– Planning– Implementation– Monitoring and Evaluation

• Could be a tool of empowerment and trust building

Past

Present Future

How it works?

People tell stories about the topic and tag them against some questions

When we get more and more stories patterns start emerge• easy to catch by human eye, hard to compute• less sensitive to number of stories, more sensitive to topic

Patterns and stories help identify issues, solutions and actions

and create feedback loops, involving people in solutions and monitoring

Vestibulum nec libero at libero condimentum condimentum ut at

neque.

Maecenas pellentesque porttitor lacus, eget venenatis

ipsum eleifend sit amet.

Issues

Solutions

Actions

Where we implement it?

• Montenegro — Environmentally protected areas

• Montenegro — Civil service and civilians

• Serbia — Roma people

• Belarus, Russia, Ukraine — Chernobyl-affected areas

• Belarus — people with disabilities

• Georgia, Kyrgyzstan — youth perception of development

• UNDP — internal business processes

Thanks to Borko Vulikic borko.vulikic@undp.org for this case

Example: Montenegro Environmetally Protected Areas

• Cluster of stories re: – Communities– Revenues– Source of incomes– Limitations of income or business activities

• Dig into the stories– Jeep tours were organized to protected areas– …but they raise dust clouds– …which spoil milk, the raw material for cheese– …cheese is major local commodity and source of incomes

• Solution– Move jeep trail 500 m from village

Thanks to Borko Vulikic borko.vulikic@undp.org for this case

QUESTIONS?Teamworks:https://undp.unteamworks.org/node/66611

Www:http://hdr.undp.org/http://europeandcis.undp.org/data/

Blogs:http://europeandcis.undp.org/blog/

Email:mihail.peleah@undp.org