Innovation System Management

A new policy framework for accelerating low carbon technologies

Dr. Simona O. Negro

Utrecht University The Netherlands

Third International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):

Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making

16th- 17th October 2008

Innovation System Management

Introduction

•Emerging technologies still reside in development stages

• Therefore diffusion patterns are missing and cannot be used for evaluation

 How can we evaluate the success chances of an emerging technology?

Innovation System Management

Theory

•Success and failure of technology diffusion is not only determined by:

technology characteristics and economics

• But also by the social system in which a technology - and the knowledge involved - is implemented or rejected = Innovation System (IS)

Innovation System Management

System Functions (1/2)

• IS = institutions, actors and organisations

•Within the Innovation System we want to understand what ‘really happens’

•Use the System Functions approach (Jacobsson and Johnson 2001; Hekkert et al. 2007)

•Functions are the ‘actual activities’ within the IS that influence the development, diffusion and implementation of a technology

Innovation System Management

System Functions (2/2)

Function 1: Entrepreneurial Activities

Function 2. Knowledge Development

Function 3. Knowledge Diffusion through networks

Function 4. Guidance of the Search

Function 5. Market Formation

Function 6. Resource Mobilisation

Function 7. Support from Advocacy Coalitions (Lobby activities)

Innovation System Management

Approach

• Historical event analysis – map all activities 1970-2007 by literature search, interviews

•Describe the individual fulfilment of system functions

•Identify interactions between system functions

•Analyse build-up of virtuous or vicious cycles (motors of change)

Innovation System Management

The evolution of Dutch PV

Period 1970-1993: The rise

• Guidance (F4) through white paper to save energy, reduce CO2

•Research (F2) on PV provides positive results

•Entrepreneurs have high expectations (F4)

•Lobby (F7) for PV as RET

•Programmes (ISES & NOZ-PV) set up (F4)

•SES subsidy for small-scale and GEA for local authorities (F6)

->ECN and R&S higher efficiency module and pilot production line for multi c-Si PV

-> 1st modules on house roofs (Casticum, HHW, Barendrecht) (F1)

Innovation System Management

Period 1994-2000: Take-off

• 1994 Government wants to stop SES (-F4)

• Lobby manages to postpone it (F7) and obtain alternative regulations (F4)

• Take-off for PV in the NL:

•1997 Shell Solar PV production line (F1)

•Energy companies introduce PV into market (F5)

•Large-scale projects (A’dam, A’foort, HAL) (F1)

•PV seen as promising RE supply option

Innovation System Management

Period 2001-2003: Reverse of the medal

• 2001 Green energy market liberalised (-F4)

•Government cuts subsidies, because PV is over stimulated (-F6)

•Alternative subsidies (GP, WWF) and E companies (NUON, Eneco) (F6)

•Platforms such as DE Koepel and Holland Solar and dedicated campaigns (Zonzeker etc) (F7)

•1 Large-scale project ‘Floriade’ (F1)

•However, entrepreneurs uncertain about political vision, PV not priority (-F4)

•Shell leaves the NL, closes plant and production of solar panels stops (-F1)

Innovation System Management

Period 2003-2006: The fall

• 2003 Government removes EPR subsidy (-F4)

•Lobby to find replacement programmes (F7)

•MEP & net metering introduced also for PV (F5)

•However, as worldwide market grows, Dutch entrepreneurs focus on export and foreign markets due to better institutional conditions (-F4, -F5)

•R&D goes on in the NL (F2) but focussed on intern’l activities

•Holland Solar continues lobby for PV in the NL (F7) (Roadmap Solar Energy)

•2006 Govt suddenly removes MEP subsidy (-F4)

•Dutch Market collapses (-F5)

Innovation System Management

0

10

20

30

40

50

601

99

2

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

year

po

we

r (M

W)

Installed PV per year

Cumulative installed PV power

Installed PV in the Netherlands per year

Innovation System Management

Period 2007- future – Revival?

• Coalition agreement (F4)

•Platform to formulate recommendations for PV (F4)

•Revival of entrepreneurial activities (F1)

•European Science park between D-NL

•Sunrise pilot plant by Scheuten Solar

•CIS factory by APA

•R&D to lower prices and increase efficiency (F2)

Innovation System Management

System Functions Analysis

Fulfilment of System Functions of PV

0

1

2

3

4

5Entrepreneurial activities

Knowledge development

Knowledge diffusion

Guidance of the searchMarket formation

Resources

Lobby activities

Innovation System Management

Discussion

• PV not further than pre-development phase

• Virtuous cycle is mainly science based – good knowledge (F2, F3) and entrepreneurial activities (F1)

• But unstable and unreliable guidance (-F4), lack of resources (-F6) and lobby activities (-F7) hamper market formation (-F5)

• Entrepreneurs focus on export market

• Hardly any implementation in the NL = failure

• Export and high level knowledge for export = success – Aim of IS is to develop, diffuse and implement technology– Goals and targets set for the NL not reached

Innovation System Management

Conclusion

• In order to make PV successful in the NL, need to stimulate the fulfilment of certain system functions

• F4: Uniform vision shared between govt and field for commitment

• F4: PV clear role in national energy supply

• F5: tailored market introduction, net metering, tariffs

• F3: feedback from learning experiences– visibility of successful results and projects will lead to enthusiasm of buyers (F5) and investors (F6) -> more entrepreneurs that stay in the NL (F1)