Innovation in the Building Sector – Major Trends and Developments · 2015. 4. 20. · 4 October...

Innovation in the Building Sector – Major Trends and Developments

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke Wuppertal Institute

Presentation at the 13th Climate Technology (CTI) Workshop

4 - 5 October, Berlin 2012

4 October 2012 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

Thesis

  The building sector has the largest potential for cost-effective GHG reduction and resource protection

  Failure to foster energy efficiency in new and retrofited buildings will lock countries into

disadvantages (e.g. higher energy costs and import dependency, less security of supply)   Building markets are complex; country specific comprehensive policy packages must address

market failures - recognizing development status and climate zones   Proven policies, technologies and knowledge already exist for near zero energy buildings, but

policies must follow a step wise approach adapted to local conditions   (Resource-) efficiency buys time and creates co-benefits, but „rebound effects“ must be avoided   Global Knowledge Management is needed to foster know how transfer on green/efficient buildings


The Great Transition to a Global Low Carbon Society Barriers, favourable factors, costs and benefits (Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) 2011)


Low-carbon technology development: Optimistic perspectives


World Energy Outlook 2010: Efficiency = 50% of the solution. What about the social embeddedness of technologies?

IEA 450 ppm CO2eq scenario to achieve 2° target


Buildings sector energy consumption in the IEA scenario (Source: IEA, Energy Technology Perspec7ves 2010)


Global energy consumption for heat and cooling 2050 Global Energy Assessment (state of the art vs .BAU)

Source: GEA 2011/2012


Large „lock-in“-effects of moderate efficiency strategies End use energy for heat and cooling in China and India (Source: Ürge-Vorsatz et al., 2012)

China India

China India


Energy and Water consumption in CPA up to 2030 Washing maschines in „BAU“ (Scenario A) vs. „Max efficiency“ (Scenario B)

Energy consumption TWh/a Water consumption qkm/a

Assumptions:

•  Region: CPA – Centrally planned Asia (Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, N.-Korea, Laos, Macau, Mongolia, Vietnam) •  Technology change from vertical Axis technology to Horizontal Axis ("European-style") washing machines combined with an average washing temperature of 30°C •  BAU-Scenario (A) = 20% BAT market share in scenario 'BAU' •  Max-Efficiency-Scenario (B) = 100% BAT market share in scenario 'Energy Efficiency‘

Source: bigEE 2012


South Asia (SA):Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Fiji, French Polynesia, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka. Source: bigEE 2012

Electricity consumption for fridges in South Asia 50% cost-effective reduction (Scenario B) comp. to BAU (Scenario A)


Chinese example: The power of „NEGAWatts“ Savings from energy efficiency standards for appliances

Source: Marc. D. Levine, LBNL, 2012


(Pre-)financing the up front costs of

energy system transition – unproductive capital should be redirected:

• Reduce subsidies on fossil fuels (775 bn $, Oil Change 2012 ) • Internalize external costs (fossil, nuclear)

•  Allocate 0,5% of global private capital assets (ca.180 trillion US$, WBGU 2012)

4 October 2012 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke  30.09.12

Global investment in energy system transition up to 2050 (Scenario: no nuclear; universal access to energy; improved energy security; 20 C goal)

Source: WBGU; GEA 2012


Motivate and prioritize efficiency strategies

14


Strategic approach: What efficiency standards are possible

according to climate zone and development?


2-step strategy towards highly-efficient building performance with net surplus energy:

A global step wise approach to efficient buildings

!1.  Reduce unsustainable energy demand from a high to a low level by designing more efficient demand and supply performance (Easy Efficiency) 2.  Set more ambitious standards and implement onsite green power generation systems to deliver surplus energy within an annual energy balance (Advanced)


How climate zones influence building standards Comparison of simulation results of buildings (useful energy; simula2ons by ECOFYS and Wuppertal Ins2tute)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Cold Cold Cold Temperate Temperate Temperate Temperate Temperate Temperate Hot - Humid Hot - Humid Hot - Humid

Helsinki Helsinki Helsinki Shanghai Shanghai Shanghai Athens Athens Athens Abu Dhabi Abu Dhabi Abu Dhabi

Conventional LEB ULEB Conventional LEB ULEB Conventional LEB ULEB Conventional LEB ULEB

[kWh/(m²a)]

Useful Energy Heating Useful Energy Cooling + Dehumidification


How climate zones influence building standards Comparison of simulation results of buildings (Wuppertal Ins2tute and Passive House Ins2tute compared)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

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Cold Cold Cold Temperate Temperate Temperate Temperate Temperate Temperate Hot - Humid Hot - Humid Hot - Humid

Helsinki Helsinki Jekaterinburg Shanghai Shanghai Shanghai Athens Athens Tokyo Abu Dhabi Abu Dhabi Dubai

Conventional ULEB PHI Conventional ULEB PHI Conventional ULEB PHI Conventional ULEB PHI

[kWh/(m²a)]

Useful Energy Heating Useful Energy Cooling + Dehumidification


New Buildings: Good Prac7ce Example in Jordan

19 Source: bigEE 2012


New apartment building Good practice example in Austria

Lodenareal Innsbruck, Austria Type of building Apartments Treated floor area (TFA) ca. 26.000 m² Building volume ca. 167.000 m³ Number of apartments 354 Year of completion 2009 Building Services and Envelop •  Energy consumption < 15 kWh/m2/a (-80%)

•  Ventilation system with heat recovery.

•  Triple Glazing U-Value ca. 0.8 W/m2K

•  300 mm Façade Insulation

Costs •  11% more expensive than standard new building ; 7% are covered by

subsidies, 4% by energy savings.

8

4.2.2 Unterzentrale

Die übertragene Wärme wird über Pufferspeicher (gekoppelt mit Solaranlage) ins Versorgungsnetz übertragen. Diese Verteilleitungen versorgen jeweils zwischen 82 und 96 Wohnungsunterstationen, in welchen sich die Warmwasserbereitung bzw. die Unterverteilung der Heizung jeder Wohnung befindet. 4.2.3 Solaranlage

Auf den Dächern der Bebauung werden insgesamt ca. 1050m² Solarflächen aufgeteilt auf 4 Unterstationen installiert, welche in die Unterverteilung eingespeist wird. Dies entspricht ca. 3 m² je Wohnung. Der effektive Jahresenergiebezug durch die Solaranlage beträgt mindestens 350 kWh/m² Kollektorfläche. Jährlicher Energiegewinn durch Solaranlage: > 367.500 kWh/Jahr Die gewonnene Solarenergie wird über einen Wärmetauscher in 5 bzw. 6 Puffern (je Unterzentrale) mit jeweils 2.500 Litern Inhalt gespeichert, mittels Umschaltventilen geschichtet und ins Verteilnetz eingespeist. Die Puffer werden komplett eingehaust und die Hohlräume mit Zelluloseflocken ausgeblasen, um möglichst wenig Energie zu verlieren.

Solaranlagen Bauteil din a4 im Juli 2009


Renovated apartment building Good practice example Freiburg

Freiburg, Germany Location Germany Type of building Social Housing Treated floor area (TFA) ca. 7200 m² Surface/Volume ratio 0,26 m-1

Number of apartments 139 Year of completion 1968 Year of refurbishement 2009

Building Services and Envelope SerSeaenvelop •  Heating Consumption ca. 15 kWh/m2/a (CHP) •  Ventilation system with heat recovery •  Photovoltaics on the roof ca. 25 kWp •  Triple Glazing U-Value ca. 0.7 W/m2K •  200 mm Façade Insulation U-Value ca. 0.15 W/m2K

Costs •  Additional building costs per qm € 600 (energy saving measures only;Subsidies by programme

„Social City“ and credit at reduced interest .


P&M to overcome barriers for efficient and green buildings


Classification of barriers for energy efficiency in buildings

Source:BPIE 2012


POLICY PACKAGE for

ENERGY EFFICIENCY in NEW BUILDINGS

Governance framework for energy efficiency

Specific policies and measures for energy efficiency in new buildings

Energy efficiency targets & planning

Energy efficiency infrastructure & funding Eliminating distortions

Regulation Information Incentives & financing

Capacity building & networking

Promotion of energy services

RD & and BAT promotion

No silver bullet to foster efficiency in buildings Policy packages are needed!


Status: Voluntary and mandatory energy standards

Source: UNEP/DTIE, 2007


Illustration of an integrated policy packages Combined voluntary and mandatory measures (e.g.MEPS)

Source: Following Tholen and Thomas 2011, Waide 2006

  Mandatory minimum energy standards (MEPS) for buildings are a necessary to push the buildings to higher efficiency

  Green buildings certifications face greater challenges and should thus be started on a voluntary base

  Market transformation using push and

pull components can accelerate impacts


Environmental aspect

Low Energy Buildings and Green Buildings

Ultra Low Energy Building Green Buildings

Operating Energy High energy savings – factor 3 to 4 Energy saving depends on energy standard (ASHRAE for LEED, EnEV for DGNB) < PH standard

Embodied Energy Can be higher than green buildings Low - due to stringent material selection

Ultra Low Energy Building Green Buildings

Additional up front investment

•  3 -10% in European countries

•  Depends on the level of certification (e.g. 2 -7% for US (LEED) and UK (BREEAM) and 6 - 18% for India)

Economical benefits

•  Up to 80% energy savings •  Payback time 4-19 years

•  The higher the performance level the the longer the payback time


The European / German approach


Development of minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) Case study: new buildings in Germany


Source: EC / DG ENER, Holl 2010

Roadmap towards Nearly Zero Energy Buildings •  In 2020 all new buildings in the EU

will have to be nearly zero energy buildings

•  For buildings owned and occupied

by public authorities already 2018 •  Intermediate targets to be set by

2015 •  For existing buildings: Member

States shall take measures towards nearly zero energy buildings

EPBD 2002

Recast EPBD 2010

Nearly Zero Energy

Buildings 2018/2020

2000

2010

2020

Europe: Recast of EPBD in 2010 (EPBD = Energy Performance of Buildings Directive)


Types of financial instruments in Europe supporting energy efficiency in buildings

Source:BPIE 2012

Innovative


Measures conducted by EEOs in the residential sector in EU Estimated annual spending by companies 1, 2 bn €/ a

Source: BPIE 2012


UK´s Green Deal The new UK “flagship” to support energy efficiency

  Problem: Consumers are reluctant to install energy efficiency due to upfront costs   UK Government plans a Green Deal – a finance mechanism by which households can

get energy-efficiency measures at no upfront cost   Payment by residents of the home through a service charge on energy bill   Charge tied to the property – you only pay if you’re benefiting from the measures, and

not if you move out   Main criteria: expected fuel bill savings will exceed repayment charge   No guarantee: Due to the impact of consumer behavior on energy use Source: Own description; after: UK Department of Energy and Climate Change, 2012

http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/what_we_do/consumers/green_deal/green_deal.aspx


Germany´s “Energiewende”: Efficient buildings

(retrofit of the building stock) play a key role


“Revolutionary Targets” (Chancellor Merkel) Energy Concept, Federal German Government, 28 September 2010

; Reduktion Wärmeverbrauch

-80% ; reduction


Pathway to Carbon Free Cities – The Example of Munich 2058

•  Blueprint for the restructuring of cities

–  50% of the worlds population live in cities consuming more than 70% of the energy

–  50% of cities in the year 2050 are still to be built

•  The „Munich Vision“: Reduce CO2 up to 90% •  Study on behalf of Siemens AG


Key options to reduce CO2 by 90% in Munich

Source: Wuppertal Institute 2009

2008 Buildings Transport Electricity 2058

- 89%


Is efficient sufficient?


Sustainability

Sufficiency

Consistency/Resilience

25% less energy/raw materials per $ GDP are “eaten up” by 82% global economic growth! Only an integrated approach “efficiency +

sufficiency + consistency” leads to sustainable development

Rebound Effect: Efficiency gains are

„eaten up“ by increased demand

Efficiency

Sustainaible patterns of consumption and

production

Reduction of specific impacts per product/service


More dwellings and more consumption of appliances have overcompensated the specific efficiency gains in buildings!

Trends in EU Housing Efficiency, 1990-2004

Source: Is efficient sufficient? ECEEE 2010

total

specific


Steep growth of „the middle/consumer classes“ in CIT In 2050 50% of „middle classes“ consumption in China and India

; EEA, SOER, 2010


New smart policy packages needed: Reduce rebound effects and support life style changes!

System adjustments

Direct: Binding energy saving targets (EU 2011/2012) Energy efficiency obligations for utilities (EU ESD 2012) Reduction of subsidies and internalizing ext. cost of nuclear/fossil fuels Caps, e.g. dynamic standards for fleet consumption of cars (EU) Bonus/malus regulations e.g. for cars („feebates“) More ambitious targets for EU ETS Progressive standards (e.g. ICT) Ecotax

Indirect: Structural change to less resource intensive sectors (i.e. services) Promotion of renewable energy in coordination with energy efficiency “ProgRress” (German Program Ressource Effciency)

Behavioral change Sustainable consumption, promotion of common goods, education… Reducing societal disparities (e.g. income, wealth, access)…


Conclusion

1. Technologies to increase energy efficiency in existing and new

buildings are available 2. Smart policy packages are needed to foster energy efficient and

green buildings   Sticks (Standards, Regulation, Law, Compliance Control)   Carrots (Grants, Fiscal incentives, Energy Performance Certificates, Labeling)   Tambourines (Information, Social Marketing campaigns) 3. Global knowledge management and networks can foster

wordwide technology/ know how transfer to avoid „Lock-in-“effects


International bigEE network Starting with China, India,South Africa continued with Mexico..?. (Source: Wuppertal Institute 2010)

Cooperation with international networks like

SBC (IEA/IPEEC)

Thank you for your attention!

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Innovation in the Building Sector – Major Trends and Developments · 2015. 4. 20. · 4 October...

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