Innovation Dynamics : Industry & Technology Roadmapping IAP 2003 ~ 1/21/03 Joost Bonsen...

InnovationDynamics:

Industry & Technology Roadmapping

IAP 2003 ~ 1/21/03

Joost [email protected]

http://web.media.mit.edu/~jpbonsen/

mailto:[email protected]

http://web.media.mit.edu/~jpbonsen/

• Tech-Industry-level of observation. & analysis• Broad faculty participation, Multi-Disciplinary• Covering the Emerging Technology spectrum• Viewing Business Implications & Context of

Technology trends• Unifying, Big-Picture perspective• Long-term view, “futurecasting”• Neutral-ground for discussion among industry players

& MIT research sponsors• Appealing to MBA, MEng, & industrially-inclined PhD

students through 15.795 TRM Research Seminar

Technology Roadmapping(TRM)

Technology Roadmapping

Fall Semester 2002 Class Offering

Emerging MIT Sloan research theme

Generalizing & Enriching Historic Technology & Demand Trends• Historical Efforts

– Moore’s Law– Electronic Devices– Sematech Roadmap– Disk Drives

• Ongoing– Optical Networking– Wireless

• Future– New technologies

…

Moore’s Law

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010103

104

105

106

107

108

109

Transistors per chip

Year

80786PentiumPro

Pentium80486

8038680286

8086

80804004

?

Source: Joel Birnbaum, HP, Lecture at APS Centennial, Atlanta, 1999

Source: Fine, MIT

101 100 10-1102

104

106

108

Number of chip components

Feature size (microns)

1010

1012

1018

1014

1016

10-2 10-3

Classical Age

Historical Trend

SIA Roadmap2010

CMOS

19952000

2005

1970

1980

1990

Roadmap for Electronic Devices

4oK

Quantum Age

77oK

295oK

Quantum State Switch

Horst D. SimonSource: Fine, MIT

International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors ‘99

Year 2005 2008 2011 2014

Technology (nm) 100 70 50 35

DRAM chip area (mm2) 526 603 691 792

DRAM capacity (Gb) 8 64

MPU chip area (mm2) 622 713 817 937

MPU transistors (x109) 0.9 2.5 7.0 20.0

MPU Clock Rate (GHz) 3.5 6.0 10.0 13.5

Source: Fine, MIT

Disk Drive Development1978-1991

Disk Drive Generation

14”

8”

5.25”

3.5”

2.5”

DominantProducer

IBM

Quantum

Seagate

Conner

Conner

Dominant Usage

mainframe

Mini-computer

Desktop PC

Portable PC

Notebook PC

From 1991-98, Disk Drive storage density increased by 60%/year while semiconductor density grew ~50%/year. Disk Drive costper megabyte in 1997 was ~ $ .10

Approx cost perMegabyte

$750

$100

$30

$7

$2

Source: Fine, MIT

Voice growth

TDM line rategrowthData growth

Optical networkcapacity growth

Cap

acit

y

OC12OC48

OC192

Optical Networking

Time

OC768

Source: Fine, MIT

1 2 3 4 5

Timeline Now Starting Starting 3-5 years 5-15 years

Stage Discrete Components

Hybrid Integration

Low-level monolithic integration

Medium Monolithic integration

High-level monolithic integration

Examples MUX/DEMUX

TX/RX moduleOADM

TX/RX moduleOADM

OADM, TransponderSwitch Matrix

Transponder

CoreTechno-logies

FBGs, Thin-film, fused fiber, mirrors

Silicon Bench, Ceramic substrates

SilicaSiliconInP

InP, ?? InP, ??

How manyFunctions?

1 2-5 2-5 5-10 10-XXX

Industry Structure

Integrated Integrated/Horizontal

Integrated/Horizontal

Optical Technology Evolution:Navigating the Generations

with an Immature Technology

HELIXDOUBLEHELIXDOUBLE

Dr. Yanming Liu, MIT & CorningSource: Fine, MIT

Supply Chain Volatility Amplification:“The Bullwhip Effect”

Customer Retailer Distributor Factory Tier 1 Supplier

Information lagsDelivery lagsOver- and underorderingMisperceptions of feedbackLumpiness in orderingChain accumulations

SOLUTIONS:Countercyclical MarketsCountercyclical TechnologiesCollaborative channel mgmt. (Cincinnati Milacron & Boeing)

Equipment

Source: Fine, MIT

Supply Chain Volatility Amplification:Machine Tools at the tip of the Bullwhip

"Upstream Volatility in the Supply Chain: The Machine Tool Industry as a Case Study," E. Anderson, C. Fine & G. Parker Production and Operations Management, Vol. 9, No. 3, Fall 2000, pp. 239-261.

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991

% C

han

ge, Year

to Y

ear

% Chg. GDP % Chg. Vehicle Production Index% Chg. Net New Orders Machine Tool Industry

Source: Fine, MIT

What are TRM essentials?

• Performance indicators

• Innovations over time, trendlines

• Physical limitations

• Value Chains

• Industry Structure

…

Benefits of MIT Tech Roadmapping

• Observing Value Chain Evolution over time• Language for discussion between management &

technology world• Structured basis for interaction Cross Value Chains,

between academia & industry, spanning basic research through application

• Bridging between vertical “silos” of research – e.g. MicroPhotonics LIDS Media Lab eBiz Center

• Publishing Collaborative Tech Roadmaps– Risk goes down, Capital Investment goes up (generally)

Other Roadmapping Efforts

• ITRS – International Technology Roadmapping for Semiconductors– http://public.itrs.net/

• Electricity Technology Roadmap– http://www.epri.com/corporate/discover_epri/roadmap/

• Steel Industry Technology Roadmap– http://www.steel.org/mt/roadmap/roadmap.htm

• Lighting Technology Roadmap– http://www.eren.doe.gov/buildings/vision2020/

• Robotics & Intelligent Machines RM– http://www.sandia.gov/Roadmap/home.htm

Technology AND Industry Roadmaps

• Not just focus on technologies

• Which technology gets adopted is often determined at the Industry level

• How technology is adopted (or not): what are economic & business issues

TRM Industry-Benefits

• Economic context for technology decisions & investments

• Lowering Risks for capital investments

• Not Stalin’s 5-year plans – rather, coordination & collaboration, co-optition

Components of MIT’s Technology Roadmapping Effort (are at Least)1. Business cycle dynamics (e.g., systems dynamics-like

models of the bullwhip effect)2. Industry structure dynamics (e.g., rigorous version of

the double helix in Fine’s Clockspeed book)3. Corporate strategy dynamics (e.g., dynamicize Porter-

like analyses for players in the value chain)4. Technology dynamics (e.g., the Semiconductor Industry

Association's roadmap built around Moore's law)5. Regulatory Policy Dynamics (e.g. Cross-National, Cross

Sector

Source: Fine, MIT

TRM Value Chain vs Component Dynamics

Economic / Business

Cycle Dynamics

Industry Structure Dynamics

Corporate Strategy

Dynamics

Customer Preference Dynamics

Emerging Technology Dynamics

Regulatory / Policy

Dynamics

CB E FDA

The Fine Helix

Integral/Vertical

Modular/Horizontal

DOJ 1984Telecom Act 1996

NicheCompetitors

1998

2000

Pressure toIntegrate

Pressure toDis-Integrate

Economies of Scope(single provider, PTN)

Market Power (local carriers)

Broadband,Convergence

HighComplexity

Organizational(and regulatory)

Rigidities

Source: Carroll, Srikantiah & Wolters 2000; Telecom.LFM769.Spr00.ppt

Generalizing & Quantifying Clockspeed

• Benefits to comparing between Industries

• Looking at Fast Industry Dynamics– Cross-species Benchmarking

• Quantify & Ultimately Model these Dynamics, improve theoretical understanding

Different Degrees of Industry Aggregation

• Communications Roadmap– Optical Communications

• MicroPhotonics

– Wireless• Personal Area Networking• Cellular G3, G4, G5

• Medical Imaging– MRI

• Functional MRI

• Nanotechnology– Precision Engineering

• AFM

– Biological Engineering• Bacterial Robotics

TRM Technology Domains(including, but not limited to…)

Established• Semiconductors• Photonics• Genomics /

Proteomics / Celleomics

• Wireless• MEMS• Smart Materials

Emerging• Soft Lithography• Neurotechnology• Nanotechnology• Organotechnology• Biological Engineering• Gerontechnology• Autonomous Systems

MIT Emerging Technology Matrix:http://web.media.mit.edu/~davet/notes/emerging-tech-mit.html

MIT Strategic Technology Thrusts1. Information Technologies = Ever more sophisticated

computation & communication, leveraging mind & media.2. Biomedical Technologies = Medical engineering,

perfecting the health & life sciences.3. Tiny Technologies = Investigating and fabricating ever

smaller systems, at scales from micro thru nano4. Complex Systems = Large scale, socio-political & econo-

technological systems.5. Developmental Innovations = Appropriate and leapfrog

technologies for tackling challenges in developing & emerging regions

Richly Interwoven MIT Themes

2. BioTech 3. TinyTech

1. InfoTech

4. Complex Systems

5. Developmental Innovations

http://web.mit.edu/

MIT Matrix1.

Info2. Bio

3. Tiny

4. Compl’x

5. Develop’l

MIT Research

LCS/AI, Media, eBiz, Mkting

POPI, CBE, Whitehd, McGrn

MTL, ISN, MicroPht, MPC

CEEPR, Sloan, AGS

Digital Nations, TDP, Globalization, MISTI

AcademicCourses

1, 6, 18, MAS

HST, BE, 6, 7

3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 16

SDM, 6, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 21

1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 11, 15, 17

Extra-curriculars

MediaTech

Bio-Strategy

TinyTech Consulting SEID, ATF

MIT Alum Startups

Akamai, Dir’ctHit

Amgen,

Biogen

Gen’tec

Surface-Lgx, eink, Angstr’m

HP, Raytheon

AfricaOnline, Evergreen Solar

http://web.media.mit.edu/~jpbonsen/MIT-Emerging-Technology-Matrix.htm


Transformative Innovations,

Emerging Hard & Soft Technologies,

Disruptive Challenges

Global Business Strategy, Accelerating

International Development

Effective Organizations,

Culture-Crafting Entre- & Intra-

preneurial Leadership

TechnologyEntrepreneurship &Strategy Dynamics

Dynamic,Networked

Organizations

Developmental Innovations,

MicroFinance

Innovation

Global

Leadership

Core Sloan Themes

http://mitsloan.mit.edu/index.html

Unifying Strategic Themes

Global Development

Effective Leadership

Transformative Innovations

Finance, Accounting, &

Economics

Manag’nt Sci, Functional Disciplines

Behavioral & Policy Science

Strat & Org’ns

Classic MIT Sloan Disciplinary Strengths

Un

ifyin

g S

tra

tegi

c T

hem

es

MIT Sloan

Classic Disciplinary Strengths

Global Development

Entrepreneurial Effectiveness



Economics



Strat & Org’ns


MIT Sloan

MIT Sloan Capabilities

Global Development

Effective Leadership



Economics



Strat & Org’ns


Un

ifyin

g S

tra

tegi

c T

hem

es

MIT Sloan Matrix

SloanMatrix

Sloan Matrix

Global Development

International

Mgt

Global Value Chains, TechMaps

Entrepreneurial Policy

Effective

Leadership

Financial Engineering, Management

Business Dynamics

Tech-Biz

Ventures


Virtual Customer

Tech Strategy


Economics



Strat & Org’ns


Un

ifyin

g S

tra

tegi

c T

hem

es

Innovation

Global

Leadership

VentureFinance

http://mitsloan.mit.edu/index.html

Mapping Sloan Faculty to MIT’s Emerging Strategic Tech Sectors

1. Info Tech

2. Bio Tech

3. Tiny Tech

4. Comp’x Systems

5. Develop’t

Innovations

Strategy

MTIE

Org/HR

Finance

Marketing

Operat’ns

Prod Dev

Faculty Interests @ Levels of Analysis

EconomicGrowth

MarketDifferentiation

VentureCapital

ValuingIP

TraderPsychology

GlobalSupply Chains

TechnologyRoadmaps

BusinessDynamics

Marketing-Engineering Links

BuyerDecision-Making

GlobalStrategy

TechnologyStrategy

EntrepreneurialCulture

GroupDynamics

InventorEthos

Econ-omy

Sector

Firm

Group

Indi-vidual

Geo-graphy

Market/

Tech

Organi-zation

Theme

Idea

Levels x Discipline

Econ-omy

Sector

Firm

Group

Indi-vidual

Geo-graphy

Market/

Tech

Organi-zation

Theme

Idea


Economics



Strat & Org’ns

EconomicGrowth

MarketDifferentiation

VentureCapital

ValuingIP

TraderPsychology

GlobalSupply Chains

TechnologyRoadmaps

BusinessDynamics

Marketing-Engineering Links

BuyerDecision-Making

GlobalStrategy

TechnologyStrategy

EntrepreneurialCulture

GroupDynamics

InventorEthos

Research ClustersAt Various Levels of Analysis…

Technology Roadmap

Technology VentureObservatory

OpenSourceInitiative

Virtual CustomerInitiative

Emerging Tech-BizLive Cases

Econ-omy

Sector

Firm

Group

Indi-vidual

Geo-graphy

Market/

Tech

Organi-zation

Theme

Idea

Weaving together Interest Clusters at Various Levels of Analysis…

Technology Roadmap




Emerging Tech-BizLive CasesION

Econ-omy

Sector

Firm

Group

Indi-vidual

Geo-graphy

Market/

Tech

Organi-zation

Theme

Idea

Innovation Observatories:Further Possibilities

Technology Roadmap




Emerging Tech-BizLive Cases

Global DevelopmentObservatory

Venture Capital Observatory

Creative Communities Observatory

Decision Neuropsychology Lab

Social Network Observatory

Econ-omy

Sector

Firm

Group

Indi-vidual

Geo-graphy

Market/

Tech

Organi-zation

Theme

Idea

Innovation Observatories:Technology Roadmapping

Technology Roadmapping

Econ-omy

Sector

Firm

Group

Indi-vidual

Geo-graphy

Market/

Tech

Organi-zation

Theme

Idea

http://mph-roadmap.mit.edu/

EQUIPMENT MAKERS

END USERS

COMP- ONENTS

SERVICE PROVIDERS

CONTENT & APPLICS

•Silicon•Gaas•InP•Polymers•Steppers•Etchers•MEMS•Insertion•Etc..

•Lasers•Amplifiers•Transceiver •Filters•Processors•Memorys•Fiber•ASICS•MEMS•DSP’s•Etc..

•Routers•Switches•Hubs•Base Stations•Satellites•Servers•Software•O/S•Etc..

•Wireless•Backbone•Metro •Access•Substations•Satellites•Broadcast Spectrum•Communic Spectrum•Etc..

•Long distance•Local Phone•Cellular•ISP•Broadcast•Hot Spots•Cable TV•Satellite TV•VPN’s•MVNO’s•Etc..

•Music•Movies•Email•VoIP•POTS•Shopping•ERP•SCM, CRM•Surveillance

•eBusiness•Etc..

•Computers•Phones•Media Players• Cameras•PDA’s•Weapons•Etc..

NETWORKOWNERS

Proposed MIT Communications Roadmap Consortium

DEVICESMATERIALS &PROCESS EQUIP

•Business•Consumer•Gov’t•Military•Education•Medical•Etc..

MPC, MTLLIDS, RLE

eBusiness,Oxygen,

Media LabITC

LCS

Source: Prof. C. Fine, MIT

Why Value Tech Roadmapping?

• Trends -- Statement of historic performance improvement and extrapolations into future

• Consensus – Shared opinion about likely future developments

• Commitment -- Shared willingness to pursue particular technologies

• Co-Investment -- Basis for agreement on pre-competitive research funding

• Understanding -- Method of understanding broader socio-economic context of broad technology trends

15.795 Technology Roadmapping

Professor Charlie Fine, TA Joost BonsenFall 2002

This seminar will explore the purposes and development ofTechnology Roadmaps for systematically mapping out possible development paths for various technological domains and the industries that build on them. Data of importance for such roadmaps include rates of innovation, key bottlenecks, physical limitations, improvement trendlines, corporate intent, and value chain and industry evolutionary paths. The course will build on ongoing work on the MIT Communications Technology Roadmap project, but will explore other domains selected from Nanotechnology, Bio-informatics, Geno/Proteino/Celleomics, Neurotechnology, Imaging & Diagnostics, etc. Thesis and Special Project opportunities will be offered.

(An example Masters Research Seminar)

TRM Class Goals

• Collaborative efforts between 1-3 students, MIT researchers, & Industry Sponsors

• Across MIT research areas• Cross Industry Benchmarking• Partnered with Industrial Sponsors• Attract students passionate about technology

sector, however broadly or narrowly defined• Committed to producing coherent & complete

Tech Roadmap (Draft 1.0) during Fall Semester

Engaging Masters Students in MIT Sloan Research Agendae• Business school disconnect

• Unfortunate and sub-optimal

• We’re prototyping a new path

• Help show that it works!

Seminars & Conferences

• Part of 9 units is required attendance of relevant technology seminars throughout MIT.

• Find them through http://web.mit.edu Google & so forth. Plus Word-of-Mouth.

High TRM Student Expectations

• Serious commitment of time & interest• Literature review & substantial interviews• Attend talks & seminar series in that tech

sector, that’s part of the course– E.g. http://web.mit.edu/mphotonics/www/sem

-series.shtml

• Data gathering & presentation smithing• Crafting a draft PPT & DOC by semesters

end

http://web.mit.edu/mphotonics/www/sem-series.shtml










TRM Academia Speakers (and Labs to Engage)

• Marty Schmidt, MTL / MEMS– http://www-mtl.mit.edu/mtlhome/

• Bruce Rosen, Martinos / NeuroMRI– http://hst.mit.edu/martinos/

• Bob Brown & Alice Gast, MIT’s Research Directors

• Ned Thomas, Soldier Nanotech– http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/nr/2002/isnqa.html

• Eric Lander, Whitehead / Genomics– http://www.wi.mit.edu/news/genome/lander.html

• Bob Langer, Biomaterials, Drug Delivery– http://web.mit.edu/cheme/langerlab/langer.html

• Victor Zue & Rod Brooks, LCS/AI Labs, Project Oxygen– http://www.lcs.mit.edu/ & http://www.ai.mit.edu/ & http://oxygen.lcs.mit.edu/

• Doug Lauffenberger, Biological Engineering– http://web.mit.edu/be/

• E. Sachs, 3D Printing– http://web.mit.edu/tdp/www/

• Neil Gershenfeld, Media Lab / Ctr Bits & Atoms– http://cba.mit.edu/

• Tom Knight, AI Lab / Computation & Biology– http://www.ai.mit.edu/people/tk/tk.html

TRM Seeds Working Collaborations w/ MIT Labs &

Sponsors• Generalizing beyond MicroPhotonics

Center & Communication Roadmap

• Engaging Lab Directors as speakers in 15.795 TRM seminar– Ask them to speculate about the important

trends in their areas & to proto-roadmap– What would they like? What would their

sponsors like?

TRM Literature

• MicroPhotonics Center– http://mph-roadmap.mit.edu

• Example Theses– http://mitsloan.mit.edu/research/

clockspeed/main.html

• References– http://www.sandia.gov/Roadmap/

http://www.sandia.gov/Roadmap/

Fin

Joost Bonsen [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Innovation Dynamics : Industry & Technology Roadmapping IAP 2003 ~ 1/21/03 Joost Bonsen...

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