Innovating from a Legacy Platform, Micro Focus Developers Conference Keynote by Jack Shaw, Visionary...

I ti fInnovating from a Legacy Platform

Jack Shaw (@jackshaw)(@j )April 17, 2012

A View of the Future

© 2012, Confidential and Proprietary Information of Breakthrough Business Technologies, LLC, All Rights Reserved

The Queen Elizabeth


Boeing 707


A Valuable Legacy, but…


An Extinct Species?


Homo COBOLProgrammerensis as spotted on a System 390 in 1999.

The First Four Waves of Business Technologygy

Mainframe Internet

2000s

PC Client/Server


60s – 70s 2000s80s 90s

Each Wave of Business Technologygy

• Requires deployment of a critical mass of its predecessor wave to achieve rapid growth and broad acceptance.

• Has an exponentially greater impact on business and society than its predecessor.


20th Century Computing


21st Century Computing


Something Remarkable in 2011


The Worst Technology PredictionsThe Worst Technology Predictions…

EVER!EVER!

No Need for Phones

"Th A i h"The Americans have need of the t l h b t dtelephone, but we do not. We have plenty

f b "of messenger boys." – Sir William P hi fPreece, chief engineer, British P t Offi 1876


Post Office, 1876

Global Internet Users will Double –and most will be Mobile


Explosive Growth of Tablets

• 2011 Worldwide tablet sales were about 63.6 million units, a63.6 million units, a

• 261.4% increase from 2010 sales of 17.6 million units, according to Gartner, Inc. , g ,

• Tablet sales will experience strong growth through 2015 when sales are forecast to reach 326.3 million units.

• 2015 PC market will be only just ahead at 535 million units.

• Tablets alone are going to have effective


parity with PCs within 4 – 5 years.

Consumerization of IT


Ubiquitous Computing

“Ubiquitous computing is inevitable.” Within the next few years, you won't be anywhere that

hyou won't have access to any data plus massive computational capabilities ”computational capabilities.

— Bill Wulf, President


US National Academy of Engineering, 2002

Cloud Computing


$11B $30B in 5 Years!

• Market research firm IDC• Market for public cloud IT servicep• Expected to grow at an average rate of

21.6% between 2009 and 201421.6% between 2009 and 2014• Reaching almost $30 billion.

Th t t f b t• That compares to revenue of about $11 billion in 2009.


6 Ways Cloud Computing Will Change Businessg

• A new generation of products and services.

• More tolerance for innovation and

i t ti f• The rise of new industry leaders and IT vendors.

experimentation from businesses.Th l i• Reconciliation of SOA

with the cloud and other • The slow-moving,

dinosaur firms will h t bl k inew IT models.

• More self-service IT

have trouble keeping up with more nimble adopters and fast


from the business-side. adopters and fast-followers.

Breakthrough Technologies Timeline

MobileCloud

InternetWWW

Cloud

Past Recent Past Immediate Future Intermediate Future

WWWe-Commerce


2000 2010 – 2011 2012 – 2013 2015

Fasten Your Seatbelts


No Future In Television

"Television won't be able to hold onto any market it capturesmarket it captures after the first six months. People will

t ti d fsoon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night." --y gDaryl Zanuck, film producer, co-founder of 20th Century Fox


of 20th Century Fox

The Fifth Wave

Mainframe Intelligent SystemsInternetPC Client/Server


60s – 70s 2010s2000s80s 90s

Big data—a growing torrent

• $600 to buy a disk drive that can store all of the world’s music

• 5 billion mobile phones in use in 2010 • 30 billion pieces of content shared on Facebook every30 billion pieces of content shared on Facebook every

month • 40% projected growth in global data generated per year

vs.vs. • 5% growth in global IT spending • 235 terabytes data collected by the US Library of

Congress by April 2011Congress by April 2011 • 15 out of 17 sectors in the United States have more data

stored per company than the US Library of Congress


Source: McKinsey Global Institute, “Big data: The next frontier for innovation, competition, and productivity”

Big Data


Business Decisions

"Most discussions of decision making assume that only senior executives make d i i h l idecisions or that only senior executives' decisions matter. This is a dangerous mistake ”This is a dangerous mistake.— Peter Drucker

Peter Drucker, "What Makes an Effective Executive," Harvard Business Review Vol 82 No 6


Business Review, Vol. 82, No. 6, June 2004

Decision Management

Decision Management (DM) is a systematic approach to automateDecision Management (DM) is a systematic approach to automate and improve decisions across the enterprise.

It allows businesses to:

Make more profitable and targeted

decisions

In the same way, over and over again

While being able to adapt “on-the-fly”


PRECISION CONSISTENCY AGILITYFAST LOW COST

Beyond BI & Data Warehousing

“B i I t lli ” i t ti• “Business Intelligence” is retrospective.– Looking at historical data for trends– BI systems designed for:y g

• Occasional• Low volume • Manual use

T i d• Trained experts• Decision Management is forward looking.

– Continuous– Real-time– High Volume– Operational decisions


Operational decisions– Existing staff

The Limits Of PC Memory

"No one will need more than 637KB of memory for a personal computer. 640KB ought to be enough for anybody."


computer. 640KB ought to be enough for anybody. –Bill Gates, co-founder and Chairman of Microsoft


“Big Data”Decision Management

CloudMobile

g

InternetWWW

Mobile

WWWe-Commerce



2000 2010 – 2011 2012 – 2013 2015

DM and Intelligent Systems

• Implementing DM means automating (some) decisions, BUT

• Gaining the full benefits of DM means automating many decisions.

• While some decisions can be automated using just simple, “If, Then, Else” program logic,just simple, If, Then, Else program logic,

• Many more decisions can be automated by using intelligent systems technologies


using intelligent systems technologies.

Intelligent Systems Technologies

B i R l M t S t• Business Rules Management Systems• Constraint Programming• Optimization Algorithms• Pattern RecognitionPattern Recognition• Predictive Analytics

B i B li f N t k• Bayesian Belief Networks• Case Based Reasoning


• Cognitive Systems

What Cognitive Systems Do

• Capture the Knowledge of Human Experts in Knowledge Bases

• Uses Knowledge in Knowledge Bases to – Reason about information flowing through the system

h h b i il– In the same ways that experts reason about similar information.

• Works 24 X 7• Works 24 X 7• Never forgets anything relevant• Can “think” 10 000 times faster than people


• Can think 10,000 times faster than people.

Autonomous Systems


Watson –and the Jeopardy Challenge p y g


Business Impact of Cognitive Systemsg y

• Expert analysts assessed the threat risks of certain individualsthe threat risks of certain individuals based a few dozen queries in an average of one hour

• Now Cognitive System makes the same assessmentsb d 10 000 ibased on over 10,000 queries in an average of one minute.

• Result:• Result:• Higher Accuracy

Fewer False Positives or Negatives


– Fewer False Positives or Negatives • Productivity of Analysts increased 50 Times!

Inevitable Surprises



Probabilistic Reasoning

“Big Data”Intelligent

Cognitive Systems

CloudMobile

gDecision Management

InternetWWW

Mobile

WWWe-Commerce



2000 2010 – 2011 2012 – 2013 2015

Burj Khalifa – Dubai


A Valuable Legacy – Modernized!


Last Mainframe Unplugged?

“The last mainframe“The last mainframe will be unplugged by 1996 "by 1996." – 1991

Stewart AlsopEdit i Chi f


Editor-in-ChiefInfoWorld

Homo COBOLProgrammerensis


Homo COBOLProgrammerensis as spotted on a System 390 in 1999.

The Natural Environment forH. Cobolprogrammerensis


H. Cobolprogrammerensis toH. Generalprogrammerensisp g

• COBOL developers can no longer be ONLY COBOL developersCOBOL i l d i• COBOL programming roles tend to require business awareness skills as well as programming language expertiselanguage expertise.

• MUST separate presentation logic (UI) and business codeand business code.

• Integration is a major strength of COBOLComposite Applications: Java XML SOA


– Composite Applications: Java, XML, SOA

Why Modernize?

I di l ld d• Immediate access to real world data• To integrate with third parties web applications• To interface with Mobile apps• To interface with Cloud• To integrate with packages for Data Analytics,

BI, and Decision ManagementThe Result:• Significant reduction in mainframe costs


Significant reduction in mainframe costs • Soaring customer satisfaction levels

New Pastures for Hunting Its Natural Prey*y


*The Bug

Time for Change

• It’s not enough to accept changeaccept change

• It’s not even enough to embrace change

You’ve got to SEEK OUT change.


g g

Change & Progress

“Change does not necessarily yassure progress, but progressbut progress implacably

i h ”requires change.”


Historian Henry Steele Commager

Follow Up

• Jack Shaw, PresidentBreakthrough Business Technologies

• M: 770-910-5969M: 770 910 5969• [email protected]• www.e-com.com• www gplus to/JackShaw• www.gplus.to/JackShaw• www.Twitter.com/JackShaw• www.YouTube.com/user/JackShaw4728• www facebook com/JackShawTechnology• www.facebook.com/JackShawTechnology• www.LinkedIn.com/in/JackShawTechnology• www.BusinessTechnologyFuturist.WordPress.com


Innovating from a Legacy Platform, Micro Focus Developers Conference Keynote by Jack Shaw, Visionary...

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