Ingo Hartlief Presents Our Cpecial Report About German Office Market
-
Upload
ingo-hartlief -
Category
Real Estate
-
view
41 -
download
0
Transcript of Ingo Hartlief Presents Our Cpecial Report About German Office Market
SPECIAL REPORT – GERMANY 21: GERMAN REGIONAL OFFICE MARKETS
Attractive office locations beyond Top 7 cities
Ingo Hartlief, COO der CORPUS SIREO Holding GmbH & Co. KG, Mitglied des Executive Committee und Vorsitzender der Geschäftsführung des CSAMC
Frankfurt – September 2013
Asset Mangement Commercial
CONTENT
1. Ingo Hartlief 03
2. Regional office markets 04
3. Bonn 06
4. Dortmund 07
5. Hanover 08
6. Leipzig 09
7. Nuremberg 10
8. Contact & Disclaimer 11
Asset Mangement Commercial
“Following the stable sideways movement of the office market index at the end of 2013, moderate growth is now anticipated for 2014. The good economic climate in Germany is indicating that rental levels will continue to be high.”
Ingo Hartlief is COO of CORPUS SIREO Holding GmbH & Co. KG.
In addition, Ingo Hartlief currently holds the following offices: CEO of CORPUS SIREO Asset Management Commercial GmbH, Organe de Contrôle of CORPUS SIREO Investment Management S.à r.l., Managing Director of CORPUS SIREO Asset Management Retail GmbH and Managing Director of CORPUS SIREO Residential Asset Management GmbH.
Mr. Hartlief holds a degree in business administration and was a Member of the Executive Board at Union Investment Real Estate in Hamburg from 2002 to 2010.
From 1999 to 2002 Ingo Hartlief led the Essen based Viterra Gewerbeimmobilien GmbH. Previously, he worked for three years as Area Director of Viterra AG.
From 1991 to 1996 Ingo Hartlief was responsible for the Services- and Real Estate Division as well as the Corporate Real Estate Management as part of the Executive Board staff at E.ON AG.
INGO HARTLIEF
Bonn Dortmund Hanover Leipzig NurembergContact &Disclaimer
Regional office markets
Ingo Hartlief
Asset Management Commercial
BACKGROUND: GERMANY 21 – REGIONAL OFFICE INDEXSETTINGS, LOCATIONS & METHODOLOGY
Previous situation: low market-transparency of regional office markets, limited market-information available
Market expertise CORPUS SIREO: regional presence in 10 offices and nationwide network of real estate experts
Identification of Key Regional Cities: selection of 14 cities based on varied criteria including dynamic growth prospects, absolute market size as well as own expertise
Index compilation:
Methodology: indexation of compounded asking-rent level
Database: publicly available data out of over 100 separate sources (c. 4 million data sets)*
Co-operation partner: empirica ag (empirica-Preisdatenbank)
Frequency: half-yearly with new focal city in each edition, currently 5th edition (Dortmund, release date 10/2013)
Key Regional Cities and Office JobsRegional Office Index as basis of the current special report:
4
Change in Office jobs 2007 – 2025 (in %)
Source: Corpus Sireo, empirica*Print-Media and Online-Advertisements
Regional office markets
Ingo Hartlief Bonn Dortmund Hanover Leipzig NurembergContact &Disclaimer
Asset Management Commercial
MANAGEMENT SUMMARYREGIONAL OFFICE MARKETS – STRENGTH THROUGH STABILITY
5
Market attraction: Increasing transaction volumes within German real estate markets confirm ongoing interest of domestic and foreign investors alike with office properties being the main target
Investor focus: prime properties in the “Top 7” markets are especially sought after, resulting in a shortage of supply and falling property yields
Stability: In contrast, key regional cities offer lower volatility of rents and property yields, limiting market risk, thus ensuring continued positive performance
Solid tenant base: Local / regional origins of SME’s act as a guarantor of long-term tenant demand and less speculative office developments
Increasing importance: Attractive investment opportunities and favorable entry prices in regional office markets act as an alternative to “Top 7” markets, especially for risk-averse investors
Market liquidity: increasing transactional volumes in key regional markets reflect growing investor demand
Regional office markets
Ingo Hartlief Bonn Dortmund Hanover Leipzig NurembergContact &Disclaimer
Asset Management Commercial
FORMER FEDERAL CAPITAL WITH STRONG PUBLIC SECTOR
Source: PMA, Brokers, Corpus Sireo Research 2013
6
BONN – ATTRACTIVE OFFICE SUB-MARKETS ALONG THE RHINE
Rental Level – Office Submarkets Selected Transactions
Market Assessment
► Persistent tenant demand from the public and business sector positively effecting the office market
► Strong demand from the public sector and downstream services respectively the IT sector
► Comparatively high rents and low vacancy rates
► Submarkets in focus: former government district and “Bonner Bogen”
Deal-Date
Price (m. €)
Adress Purchaser Size (sqm)
Yield (%)
2013 Q1 n/a Wielandstraße 4 JV Pareto 9,800 n/a
2012 Q4 12.5Kanada Haus,Fr.-Wilhelm Straße
Aberdeen Asset Mgmt. (sale)
4,700 n/a
2012 Q3 65.2Maanderbaus,Fr.-Ebert-Allee 36
GIZ n/a n/a
2012 Q1 20.9Andreas-Hermes-Straße
IFK Sachwertfonds
n/a 7.2
BONN 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014* 2015* Trend
GDP growth (%) 2.4 1.6 0.5 -0.1 1.0 1.3
Unemployment (%) 6.1 5.2 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.3
Vacancy rate (%) 3.00 3.50 3.60 4.10 4.20 5.00
Prime rent (EUR/sqm/month)
15.00 16.00 16.00 15.90 15.90 15.75
Prime yield (%) 5.80 5.50 5.50 5.40 5.40 5.50
Source: Brokers, Thomas Daily, IZ, Corpus Sireo Research 2013
Office market Bonn:rent levels
Deviation from average rent (=0)
below -25
-25 to -15
-15 to -10
-10 to -5
-5 to 5
5 to 10
10 to 15
15 to 25
25 to 50
above 50
Built-up area
Green space
Other area
BonnRegional
office markets
Source: empirica Preisdatenbank (IDN Immodaten GmbH) Infas geodaten 2007
Dortmund Hanover Leipzig NurembergContact &Disclaimer
Ingo Hartlief
Asset Management Commercial
FORMER CAPITAL INDUSTRY IN TRANSITION
Source: PMA, Brokers, Corpus Sireo Research 2013
7
DORTMUND – YOUNG OFFICE MARKET WITH POTENTIAL
Rental Level – Office Submarkets Selected Transactions
Market Assessment
► Largest city of the Ruhr area, advanced stage within the structural transformation process from industrial base to services
► Strong revitalisation activities, development of new office and technology parks within the city
► Stable office market in terms of demand and rents, homogeneous development of central and peripheral areas
► Submarkets in Focus: Phoenix-See, Phoenix West
Deal-Date
Price (m. €)
Adress Purchaser Size (sqm)
Yield (%)
2013 Q2 n/a Heppingstraße Private Investor 3,000 n/a
2012 Q4 n/aHarpen-Zentrale, Voßkuhle 38
Harpen Immobilien
6,500 n/a
2013 Q3 n/aEhem. Hauptsitz Hoesch-Union
Peach Property Group
15,000 n/a
2012 Q3 25.0 Westenhellweg 52Aachener Grundvermögen
3,700 n/a
DORTMUND 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014* 2015* Trend
GDP growth (%) 0.2 1.7 1.6 1.0 1.6 2.1
Unemployment (%) 11.7 11.1 10.3 10.4 10.6 11.3
Vacancy rate (%) 5.7 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.4
Prime rent (EUR/sqm/month)
13.00 13.20 13.20 13.30 13.40 13.50
Prime yield (%) 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.1 6.1
Source: Brokers, Thomas Daily, IZ, Corpus Sireo Research 2013
Office market Dortmund: rent levels
Deviation from average rent (=0)
Bonn Dortmund
below -25
-25 to -15
-15 to -10
-10 to -5
-5 to 5
5 to 10
10 to 15
15 to 25
25 to 50
above 50
Built-up area
Green space
Other area
Source: empirica Preisdatenbank (IDN Immodaten GmbH) Infas geodaten 2007
Regional office markets
Hanover Leipzig NurembergContact &Disclaimer
Ingo Hartlief
Asset Management Commercial
LARGEST REGIONAL MARKET OUTSIDE THE TOP 7
Source: empirica, Experian, Broker, Corpus Sireo Research 2013
88
HANOVER – STATE CAPITAL WITH FOCUS ON INSURANCE
Rental Level – Office Submarkets Selected Transactions
Market Assessment
► Largest regional office market outside the “Top 7” with 5.4 million sqm of office space
► Divergence of rental levels of central and peripheral locations with clear user preference for inner-city office locations
► Strong brownfields revitalisation activities and conversion areas, particularly in central locations
► Submarkets in Focus: Downtown and Podbielskistraße
Deal-Date
Price (m. €)
Adress Purchaser Size (sqm)
Yield (%)
2013 Q2 about 10 Karmarschstraße Family Office ca. 1,000 n/a
2013 Q1 21.3Hans Boeckler Allee 11
Inovalis 11,500 7.1
2012 Q4 14Grosse Packhofstraße Aachener Grund 3,800 n/a
2012 Q1 25.8Grammophon BP, Podbielskistraße
Dundee Internat. REIT
19,500 n/a
HANOVER 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014* 2015* Trend
GDP growth (%) 3.8 3.0 1.4 0.9 2.0 2.3
Unemployment (%) 7.7 7.5 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.5
Vacancy rate (%) 5.00 4.80 4.30 4.10 4.80 4.70
Prime rent (EUR/sqm/month)
12.80 13.50 14.0 14.10 14.10 14.10
Prime yield (%) 6.20 6.10 5.80 5.75 5.80 5.80
Source: Broker, Thomas Daily, IZ, Corpus Sireo Research 2013
Dortmund Hanover
below -25
-25 to -15
-15 to -10
-10 to -5
-5 to 5
5 to 10
10 to 15
15 to 25
25 to 50
above 50
Built-up area
Green space
Other area
Office market Hanover: rent levels
Deviation from average rent (=0)
Source: empirica Preisdatenbank (IDN Immodaten GmbH) Infas geodaten 2007
BonnRegional
office marketsLeipzig Nuremberg
Contact &Disclaimer
Ingo Hartlief
Asset Management Commercial
ECONOMIC CENTRE IN EASTERN GERMANY
Source: empirica, Experian, Broker, Corpus Sireo Research 2013
99
LEIPZIG – DYNAMIC LOCATION WITH DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Rental Level – Office Submarkets Selected Transactions
Market Assessment
► Large office market in eastern Germany with 3.5 million sqm of office space and positive regional economic development
► Strong take-up of office space in relation to total stock resulting in positive rent development
► Low volume of completions, potential for further positive market development through falling vacancy rates
► Submarkets in focus: “Graphisches Viertel”
Deal-Date
Price (m. €)
Adress Purchaser Size (sqm)
Yield (%)
2013 Q2 n/aAlte HauptpostAugustusplace
KSW GmbH 27,000 n/a
2012 Q4 n/aJacobi Palais, Dittrichring 1
Leipziger urban Planning
6,100 n/a
2012 Q3 n/aTriasMarkgrafenstraße DEVK 6,300 n/a
2012 Q1 n/aForum am BrühlR.-Wagner-Straße
JV Caleus Capital u.a.
26,500 n/a
LEIPZIG 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014* 2015* Trend
GDP growth (%) 1.2 2.9 0.6 1.0 2.1 2.4
Unemployment (%) 13.1 12.1 11.9 12.1 12.2 13.1
Vacancy rate (%) 20.80 18.70 17.70 17.40 16.90 16.70
Prime rent (EUR/sqm/month)
11.00 11.50 12.00 12.20 12.40 12.40
Prime yield (%) 6.30 6.30 6.30 6.10 6.10 6.20
Karte Nürnberg
Source: Broker, Thomas Daily, IZ, Corpus Sireo Research 2013
Office market Leipzig:rent levels
Deviation from average rent (=0)
Hanover Leipzig
below -25
-25 to -15
-15 to -10
-10 to -5
-5 to 5
5 to 10
10 to 15
15 to 25
25 to 50
above 50
Built-up area
Green space
Other area
Source: empirica Preisdatenbank (IDN Immodaten GmbH) Infas geodaten 2007
DortmundBonnRegional
office marketsNuremberg
Contact &Disclaimer
Ingo Hartlief
Asset Management Commercial
STRONG METROPOLITAN AREA IN THE NORTH OF BAVARIA
Source: empirica, Experian, Broker, Corpus Sireo Research 2013
1010
NUREMBERG – REGIONAL MARKET WITH INCREASING FOCUS ON SERVICES
NUREMBERG 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014* 2015* Trend
GDP growth (%) 4.1 2.7 0.7 1.1 2.2 2.6
Unemployment (%) 9.0 7.0 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.4
Vacancy rate (%) 7.60 6.80 6.80 6.60 7.80 7.70
Prime rent (EUR/sqm/month)
11.50 12.00 12.00 12.10 12.00 12.00
Prime yield (%) 5.70 5.50 5.40 5.40 5.40 5.40
Rental Level – Office Submarkets Selected Transactions
Market Assessment
► Industrial decline offset by strengthened service orientation (e.g. consumer and market research)
► Focus on owner-occupiers and pre-letting, few speculative development projects
► Locations outside the inner city with strong rental dynamic, inner city office locations with highest rents
► Submarkets in Focus: Downtown and Eastern Inner Ring
Deal-Date
Price (m. €)
Adress Purchaser Size (sqm) Yield (%)
2013 Q2 n/a Königstorgraben 7 Kochinvest 2,600 n/a
2013 Q1 about 17Parcside, Am Stadtpark 2
Dundee Internat. REIT
8,800 n/a
2012 Q2 48.6 Karl-Martell-Str. 60Dundee Internat. REIT
25,000 6.20
2012 Q1 20.7Tank & Rast HQ, Hermes-Straße 7
IFK Sachwertfonds
about 10,000 7.7
Source: Broker, Thomas Daily, IZ, Corpus Sireo Research 2013
Office market Nuremberg: rent levels
Deviation from average rent (=0)
Leipzig Nuremberg
below -25
-25 to -15
-15 to -10
-10 to -5
-5 to 5
5 to 10
10 to 15
15 to 25
25 to 50
above 50
Built-up area
Green space
Other area
Source: empirica Preisdatenbank (IDN Immodaten GmbH) Infas geodaten 2007
HanoverDortmundBonnRegional
office marketsContact &Disclaimer
Ingo Hartlief
Asset Management Commercial
YOUR CONTACT REGARDING RELATED QUESTIONSCONTACT
Martin LippmannSenior Manager
Advisory
Jahnstr. 6463150 HeusenstammT: +49 6104 664 371M: +49 170 76 93 [email protected]
More information about CORPUS SIREO, Services and Market Surveys can be found at our website:
11
Contact & Disclaimer
Residential Report Office Index
Link to the download-area of recent office market reports(english / german):
https://www.corpussireo.com/CORPUSSIREO/Presse/Downloads.aspx
Ingo HartliefCEO
CS Asset- & Investment Management
Jahnstraße 6463150 HeusenstammT: +49 6104 664 100M: +49 178 778 [email protected]
LeipzigHanoverDortmundBonnRegional
office marketsIngo Hartlief Nuremberg
Asset Management Commercial
DISCLAIMERIMPORTANT NOTICE
12
COPYRIGHT: All rights to this edition reserved. Reprinting, including excerpts, subject to prior written permission. Photographs, charts, and layout designed by the editorial desk are protected by applicable copyright laws. The data and information contained in this publication are based on publicly available sources that the editor deems trustworthy. The CORPUS SIREO group of companies assumes no warranty regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information. Any opinion offered represents the current assessment of the editor. No warranty is assumed in regard to the opinions and forecasts ventured. Specifically, no liability is assumed for future developments in the real estate economy. The data and information contained in this publication is subject to change without notice both during the time of its publication and thereafter.
Contact & Disclaimer
LeipzigHanoverDortmundBonnRegional
office marketsIngo Hartlief Nuremberg