Ingenuity Theory Can Humankind Create a Sustainable Civilization?

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Ingenuity Ingenuity Theory Theory Can Humankind Create a Sustainable Civilization?

Transcript of Ingenuity Theory Can Humankind Create a Sustainable Civilization?

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IngenuityIngenuity TheoryTheory

Can Humankind Createa Sustainable Civilization?

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Are we creating a world Are we creating a world that’s too complex to manage?that’s too complex to manage?

INGENUITY THEORYINGENUITY THEORY

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Do the “experts” really knowDo the “experts” really knowwhat’s going on?what’s going on?

INGENUITY THEORYINGENUITY THEORY

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Are we really as smart asAre we really as smart aswe think we are?we think we are?

Are we really as smart asAre we really as smart aswe think we are?we think we are?

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Can we solve the problems Can we solve the problems of the future?of the future?

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War in the Persian GulfWar in the Persian Gulf

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Blackouts in North America and EuropeBlackouts in North America and Europe

Deadly heat waves in Europe and IndiaDeadly heat waves in Europe and India

Millions affected by AIDS in AfricaMillions affected by AIDS in Africa

The lightening spread of SARSThe lightening spread of SARS

Suicide attacks in the Middle EastSuicide attacks in the Middle East

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Is there something new here?

INGENUITY THEORYINGENUITY THEORY

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Are the problems we’re Are the problems we’re confronting becoming harder?confronting becoming harder?

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Two Questions

If so, can we solve them?If so, can we solve them?

Most definitely

Too often not

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H.G. Wells

““Hard imaginative thinking has Hard imaginative thinking has not increased so as to keep pace not increased so as to keep pace with the expansion and with the expansion and complications of human societies complications of human societies and organizations.” This is “the and organizations.” This is “the darkest shadow upon the hopes darkest shadow upon the hopes of mankind.”of mankind.”

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Sets of instructions that tell Sets of instructions that tell us how to arrange the us how to arrange the constituent parts of our constituent parts of our physical and social worlds in physical and social worlds in ways that help us achieve ways that help us achieve our goals.our goals.

Ingenuity

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Economic paradigm

Human beings are:Human beings are:““Rational ConsumersRational Consumers”

Key concepts:Key concepts:Consumption/production;Consumption/production;Investment/savingInvestment/saving

Factors of production (or system inputs):Factors of production (or system inputs):Capital and labor Capital and labor Sometimes land and ideasSometimes land and ideas

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Ingenuity paradigm

Human beings are:Human beings are:““Pragmatic Problem-Solvers”Pragmatic Problem-Solvers”

Key concepts:Key concepts:Ingenuity requirement and supplyIngenuity requirement and supply

Factors of problem-solvingFactors of problem-solvingor system inputs:or system inputs:Matter, energy (work), and ingenuityMatter, energy (work), and ingenuity

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Human beings use ingenuity ingenuity

To guide the application of energy energy

To arrange the matter matter around them(including materials and people)

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In ways that they hope will solvetheir problems

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Two types of ingenuity

SocialSocialTechnicalTechnical

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Is our requirement Is our requirement for ingenuity rising?for ingenuity rising?

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Greater ComplexityGreater Complexity through through structural deepeningstructural deepening(adding sub-systems and internal links)(adding sub-systems and internal links)

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A Simple NetworkA Simple Network

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Greater ComplexityGreater Complexityby adding nodes and linksby adding nodes and links

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Greater VelocityGreater VelocityBecause of a higher rate of transferBecause of a higher rate of transfer

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Greater VelocityGreater VelocityBecause of a higher rate of transferBecause of a higher rate of transfer

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Greater VelocityGreater VelocityBecause of a higher rate of transferBecause of a higher rate of transfer

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Greater VelocityGreater VelocityBecause of a higher rate of transferBecause of a higher rate of transfer

Amount of material, energy, and/or information transferredper unit time alongnetwork links

1900 2000 2100

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ComplexityComplexityPacePace

Connectedness andConnectedness andScopeScope

Globalization

of all humankind’s activitiesof all humankind’s activities

Involves a rapid increase in theInvolves a rapid increase in the

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Changes in Temperature and in CO2 Concentration Over Time

Thousands of Years before Present

Tem

pera

ture

(

from

the

pres

ent c

ore

tem

pera

ture

of

-55.

5 C

)C

O2 C

oncentration (ppmv)

CO2 (right axis)

Temperature (left axis)

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Changes in Temperature and in CO2 Concentration Over Time

Thousands of Years before Present

Tem

pera

ture

(

from

the

pres

ent c

ore

tem

pera

ture

of

-55.

5 C

)C

O2 C

oncentration (ppmv)

CO2 (right axis)

Temperature (left axis)

Projection

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Can we always supply the Can we always supply the ingenuity we need?ingenuity we need?

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The ingenuity supply chain

BrainsBrains

ScienceScience

PoliticsPolitics

MarketsMarkets

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Practical constraints on science

Some problems are intrinsically hardSome problems are intrinsically hard

Costs escalate as research progressesCosts escalate as research progresses

Society may not be supportiveSociety may not be supportive

Scientific institutions may not function wellScientific institutions may not function well

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The ingenuity supply chain

BrainsBrains

ScienceScience

PoliticsPolitics

MarketsMarkets

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Ingenuity Ingenuity GapGap

Time

Supply

Requirement

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What does this situation What does this situation mean for our future?mean for our future?

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Widening gulfs between

richrich

weakweak

poorpoor

powerfulpowerful

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