Information Technology and Processing Power The Overview Dr. Stephen Tse [email protected]

1

Stephen TseStephen Tse

Information Technology andInformation Technology andProcessing PowerProcessing Power

The OverviewThe Overview

Dr. Stephen TseDr. Stephen Tse

[email protected]

Lesson 1Lesson 1

2


History of Information/Communications

230

1430

18301870191019501990

2006

1030

630PaperGunpowder

Compass

Graphite Pencil

EraserCarbon PaperEnvelopeTransAtlantic TelegraphBell’s Telephone

TransAtlantic RadioTeletype Color TV

Optical Fiber Telstar Electronic Switch.Wireless Microwave

1st Fiber Comm PC 1st Fiber TAT

?

1600 Years

160 Years

10 YearsATM Portables Solutions PCS CDs WWW MultimediaCellular DNA E-Commerce

20026 Years

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..

The Original Patent of Telephone Delivery

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Initial Deployment of the Telephone NetworkOverhead Wires at Broadway and John Street, New York,

1890

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1890 1990

Hundred Years Later

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• The function of the Total is much bigger then the sum of individuals.• The digital economy: The age of Networked Intelligence• Bell Labs leading the Information revolution:

- 1962-Bell Labs invented packet switching protocol network. - 1969-ARPANET is formed.- 1971-Invention of EMAIL PROGRAM- 1974-Invention of Transmission Control Protocol.

• Everyone can express and do their best - Touch the basic human nature• Reach out & touch everyone vs. Blocking people• The Right Choice vs. No Choice • Experience Science vs. Physical Science• Non-equilibrium System vs. Equilibrium• Dissipative Structures vs. Atomic Structure• Synergetic/Cooperate vs. Cybernetics/Control • Opened Systems vs. Closed Systems• Disruptive Technologies vs. Traditional• Agile Architecture vs. Customized• Convulsive Market vs. Regulated Market

New System Theory: 1+1>3New System Theory: 1+1>3The Rise of the Network SocietyThe Rise of the Network Society

I. Prigogine - Order Out of Chaos, Dissipative Structures; E. Laszlo - The Systems View of the World; Arno Penzias - Harmony; Kelly, K - New Rules for the New Economy H. Haken - An Introduction to Synergetic; Bertalanffy, L - General System Theory;

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CADeModem

DSP

ASICMPEG ATM

elemediaCAD

SwitchesTransmission

1947

1999

Intel P-III Micro CPU Chip

12,000,000 Transistors

First TransistorFirst Transistor

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Customers

CAD

C++ U

e

MPEG ATM

C++ UNIX

elemediaCAD

FiberOA

SwitchesWireless Sys

19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010

1.6-2.41.6-2.4mm

1.0-1.21.0-1.2mm

0.7-0.80.7-0.8mm

0.5-0.60.5-0.6mm

0.35-0.40.35-0.4mm

0.25-0.30.25-0.3mm

0.15-0.20.15-0.2mm

0.150.15mm

64Kb64Kb

256Kb256Kb

1Mb1Mb

4Mb4Mb

16Mb16Mb

64Mb64Mb

256Mb256Mb

1Gb1Gb

4Gb4Gb

101044

101055

101066

101077

101088

101099

10101010

This is actually real text about illustrate-on drawing in razor

Silicon Chip Capacity Double Every 18 MonthsSilicon Chip Capacity Double Every 18 Months Moors’ LawMoors’ Law

Encyclopedia

One Book

One Page

Capacity

Year

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60 nm60 nm

sourcesource draindrain

182 monolayers channel182 monolayers channel

1.2 nm (~4 atoms)1.2 nm (~4 atoms)

WSixWSix

Poly-SiPoly-Si

These technologies will help enable: 250X reduction in DSP power 64 Gbit DRAM 200 GHz transistor speeds 10 GHz processor clocks

High-Performance, Atomic-Scale Transistors

- 0.08 Micron Technology- 0.08 Micron Technology

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UUNIX

System-on-a-ChipSystem-on-a-ChipDifferent Kinds of Devices are Being Combined

Acoustic reflecting

layers

Si Substrate

Piezoelectric film

Electrode . New process enables acoustic filters, memory, analog circuits and digital logic to be combined on one silicon chip

. Advantages for systems, reduced:. Size. Power. Cost. Complexity

Cellular HandsetReduced to 2 Chips

Memory

ASICDSP

Filters

Mixers/VCOLNA/PA

Low Cost High FrequencyAcoustic Filter

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Fifth Wave of Computing

Mainframe

Mini-Computer

PC-Workstation

PDA, Wireless, Handhold, Portable

Mobile Data, Wearable-PC, Smart Phone

1st Wave

2nd Wave

3rd Wave

4th Wave

5th Wave

The “Fifth Wave“ of Computing marketis greater than that of Portable, Handhold,Mini-Computer and Mainframe Combined.

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Stephen TseStephen Tse05/15/00 -- 2Lucent Technologies Proprietary

NETWORKED ECONOMY

BuildingsBuildings

HomesHomes

ComputersComputers

PeoplePeople

Smart CardsSmart Cards

SmartVendingSmart

Vending

$$$$

Smart AppliancesSmart Appliances

WirelessWireless

IntelligentTransit

IntelligentTransit

Handheld Devices

Handheld Devices

Entertainment Devices

Entertainment Devices

Communication Fuels the New

Economy

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PCS Cellular InternetToday in TelecommunicationsToday in Telecommunications

How fast? (Feb. 2000)1.6 Trillion bits/second = 13~15 M calls/sec.or 400 years daily newspaper data/second

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Global Communications GrowthGlobal Communications Growth

Telephone Subscribers Internet Hosts

BillionMillions

10,000 -

1,000 -

100 -

6 -

3 -

1 -

.3 -

.1 - | | | | | | | | | | | 1980 ‘83 ‘86 ‘89 ‘92 ‘95 ‘98 ‘01 ‘04 ‘07 ‘10

Wireless

Wired

| | | | | | | | |

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

Source: Network Wizardshttp://www.nw.com/

Internet Hosts

Least SquaresFit Projection

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Stephen TseStephen TseStephen TseStephen Tse

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Loop CostsLoop Costs

Inst

alle

d C

ost

($)

(Voi

ce)

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

1000 Fixed

WirelessWireline

Installed Cost (Voice)

Fixed Wireless Loops will increase in Bit Rate & become less expensive than Wire Loops

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PCS Cellular Internet

““Smart Antennas”Smart Antennas” Signal Processing Increase System Capacity by 1000x Signal Processing Increase System Capacity by 1000x

Enable Growth of Voice, Data & Multimedia Enable Growth of Voice, Data & Multimedia

ArrayAntennaAntenna

Omni-directional pattern Multi-directional pattern

Radio

Interferer

Direct Ray

ReflectedRays

Macro Cells

Pico Cells

Micro Cells

10-fold increase in wireless capacity - More calls (20 200 ISDN calls)

- Data/Multimedia

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SteerableAntennas

U. S. Spectrum Allocation (Freq. in MHz)U. S. Spectrum Allocation (Freq. in MHz)

FMFMTVTV TVTV SatelliteSatelliteAM RadioAM Radio Long-HaulLong-Haul SatSat

Short-HaulShort-Haul

MilitaryMilitary & Exploratory& Exploratory

0011

1010 100100 1,0001,000 10,00010,000 100,000100,000

More Efficient Spectrum Utilization + Digital Signal Processing(Digital Speech Coding, CDMA, TDMA, Flex Packet)

Better Spectrum Reuse

Macro Cells5 mile rangeCapacity = 1x

Micro Cells0.5 mile rangeCapacity = 50x

Pico Cells1000 foot rangeCapacity = 200x

Capacity = 10x Capacity = 500xCapacity = 1000x

Technology AdvancesIncreasing Wireless Capacity

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Number of Antennas0 10

Cap

acit

y (B

its/

sec/

Hz)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

20 30 40 50 60

1 GB/sec LAN

Capacity of a 10 MHz channel

New Wireless Broadband CapacitySpace-Time Layering (BLAST)

.

.

.

S1

S2

S n

.

.

.

1

2

n

.

.

.

.

.

.

Cellular/PCS< 1

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User Interface Revolution Human Machine Interface

Analog Digital

Hearing SightSpeech

TouchHandwriting

• Speech generation and recognition• Character recognition• Video• “Ease of Use” is a critical challenge to the industry

Human/Machine Interface

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Optical Networking and Bandwidth Growth

• New Network Topologies• Lower Cost Transport• Optical Processing

• New Network Topologies• Lower Cost Transport• Optical Processing

The extremely high growth rate of Internet

traffic is being matched by DWDM technology.

The extremely high growth rate of Internet

traffic is being matched by DWDM technology.

3

30

300

3000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Date of System Deployment

Fib

er s

yste

m c

apac

ity

(Gb

it/s

ec)

30

3000

Inte

rnet

Tra

ffic

(T

erab

ytes

/mon

th)

DWDMSystems

WDMSystems

1.3/1.5 m

1.5m

300

1.3m

0.8 m Wavelength

Single Fiber Capacity

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Disruptive Technologies Driving the Disruptive Technologies Driving the Communication IndustryCommunication Industry

Cellular Phone

10B

1B

100M

10M

Tra

ns

isto

rs p

er

Ch

ip

1995 2000 2005 2010

0.25µ

0.18µ

0.13µ

0.10µ

0.07µ

Probable limitfor silicon

Silicon

PC

“5ESS”Circuit Switch

0.8m Wavelength

1.3m

1.3/1.5m

1.5m WDM

WDMSystems

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Sin

gle

-fib

er

cap

acit

y (

Gb

it/s

ec) Optics

Software is key to network management and new services

Software is key to network management and new services

Years

Cap

acit

y/C

ost

Disruptive Packet Technology

ATM

IP

?

Advances in Silicon, Optics, Wireless, and Software will drive a 250-fold increase in network capacity by 2005.

Advances in Silicon, Optics, Wireless, and Software will drive a 250-fold increase in network capacity by 2005.

1995 2000 2005

1000

100

10

1

Incr

ease

ove

r A

nal

og

Cel

lula

r V

oic

e C

all C

arry

ing

Cap

acit

y

2010

Wireless

80 wavelengthsin 1998, 1,000wavelengths in2005

Multi-antenna systemincreases capacity 10x-100x

SCALPEL lithography enablesatomic-scale transistors forsystems on a chip

Protocol-agnosticQoS-enabled routers

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Technology Advances

Technologies ExamplesImprovement1998 - 2002

Integrated Circuit Density 16x 4 GBIT DRAM

Processor Speed 15x 7700 MIPS-2G

High-Speed Switching 25x 25x106 PKTS/SEC

6.4 Terabits/sec

Speech Recognition 15x 5000 WordContinuous Speech

Lightwave 3x 3.2 Terabits/sec.

Storage 25x 50 GBYTE Card

Wireless Capacity 20x Digital, Micro and Pico cells

Software Productivity up to 10x Reusable Software/

Parallel processing

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Information Technology and Processing Power The Overview Dr. Stephen Tse [email protected]

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