Influence

Freewrite

Do trailer parks cause tornadoes?

Why or why not?

Why would somebody ask that?

Why do I ask?

• Don’t forget to turn this in for participation credit!

Tornados and trailer parks

The problem of “buying votes”

• Interest groups do give – To members on committees important to their

policy area– More money right before an important vote

• Members do vote with the groups that give them money

• Problem of simultaneous causation

Which is cause and which is effect?

Interest group gives a

campaign contribution

Member votes with interest group

Member takes issue positions

favorable to an interest group

Interest group lobbies member

When members of Congress decide how to cast a vote, what

do they consider?

How do members of Congress make decisions?

Determinative Major importance

Minor importance

Not important

Constituents 7% 31% 51% 12%

Fellow MC’s 5% 42% 28% 25%

Party leaders 0% 5% 32% 63%

Interest groups 1% 25% 40% 35%

Administration 4% 14% 21% 61%

Staff 1% 8% 26% 66%

How do MC’s make decisions?

• Fellow members

• Constituents

• Interest Groups

• President

• Party

• Staff

Complexity of Interest Group influence

Member of Congress

Constituents

Party

Other members

Interest Group

Campaign Contributions & lobbying

Going public

Campaign contributions

/ revolving door

loyalty

Interest groups and the public

• Get own members to write to/visit member of Congress– Particularly MC’s own constituents!

• Lobby the public– Get journalists to cover group’s issue/

research/demonstrations– Run TV ads about upcoming vote– Take part in the culture war

Complexity of Interest Group influence

Member of Congress

Constituents

Party

Other members

Interest Group

Campaign Contributions & lobbying

Going public

Campaign contributions

/ revolving door

loyalty

Methodological issues

• Of course they’d say that.

• Is there a mechanism?

• How to take all factors into account?– “Statistics”!

Research conclusions

• PAC contributions don’t buy votes on issues that constituents are aware of, or party cares about

• PAC Contributions may influence…• committee votes on amendments• level of member activity• tax and regulatory bills (low profile) more

than spending bills

How could we prove that campaign contributions/access/lobbying

affects congressional outcomes?

Interest group gives a

campaign contribution

Member votes with interest group

Member takes issue positions

favorable to an interest group

Interest group lobbies member