Industry Trends Q2 FY 2019-20 Trends Q2 FY 2019-2… · Industry Trends Q2 FY 2019-20 ... Industry...
Transcript of Industry Trends Q2 FY 2019-20 Trends Q2 FY 2019-2… · Industry Trends Q2 FY 2019-20 ... Industry...
© COPYRIGHT 2013, COAI 1
Industry Trends Q2 FY 2019-20
© COPYRIGHT 2013, COAI 2
Subscriber Base
Industry Subs base The total Subscriber figures has shown an little up-wordtrend in Q2FY20. total Industry subscriber base reached 119.5Crores.
Source: TRAI PMR
Industry Subs base
(in crores) Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY20 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20
Total Subscriber base
120.7 119.1 120.6 116.8 119.14 119.8 118.4 118.7 119.5
% change -0.33% 1.26% -3.15% 2.00% 0.54% -1.20% 0.26% 0.72%
120.7
119.1
120.6
116.8
119.1
119.8
118.4118.7
119.5
-0.33%
1.26%
-3.15%
2.00%0.54%
-1.20%
0.26%
0.72%
-4.00%
-3.00%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
114.0
115.0
116.0
117.0
118.0
119.0
120.0
121.0
Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20
Industry Total Subscriber base
Total Subscriber base % change
In C
rore
s
Gro
wth
Rat
e
TSP wise Subscriber base
Source: TRAI PMR
RJio & Airtel saw growth in their Subscriberfigures. While VIL has shown a negative growthrate of 2.87%.
TSP wise Subs base
(in crores) Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20
Airtel 34.75 34.43 32.94 32.46 33.00
JIO 25.20 28.01 30.67 33.13 35.60
Vodaidea 43.52 41.90 39.52 38.38 37.28
% change of Airtel -0.43% -0.92% -4.33% -1.46% 1.66%
% change of JIO 17.21% 11.15% 9.50% 8.02% 7.46%
% change of Vodaidea 0.05% -3.72% -5.68% -2.88% -2.87%
34.75 34.43 32.94
32.46 33.00
25.20 28.01
30.67
33.13 35.60
43.52 41.90 39.52 38.38
37.28
-
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20
Subscriber base
Airtel JIO Vodaidea
In C
rore
s
-0.43%
-0.92%
-4.33%
-1.46%
1.66%
17.21%
11.15%9.50%
8.02% 7.46%
0.05%
-3.72%-5.68% -2.88%
-2.87%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20
Subscriber Growth
% change of Airtel % change of JIO % change of Vodaidea
Gro
wth
Rat
e
Industry Data Subscribers as % of Total Subs
Source: Operators Quarterly results, TRAI
Data Subscribers as a % of total subscriber is increasing consistently and has reached to 52% at the end of the Q2FY20.
(In Crores) Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20
Data Subs 20.4 23.1 27.3 31.0 48.8 52.8 56.1 59.4 62.0
Total Subs 121 119 121 117 119 120 118 118 120
Data Subs as a % of Total Subs 17% 19% 23% 27% 41% 44% 47% 50% 52%
20.4 23.1 27.3 31.0
48.8 52.8 56.1 59.4 62.0
121 119 121 117 119 120 118 118 120
17%19%
23% 27%41%
44%
47%50% 52%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20
Data Subs as % of Total Subs
Data Subs Total Subs Data Subs as a % of Total Subs
© COPYRIGHT 2013, COAI 6
Voice and Data Usage
Wireless Industry data usage
(in GB)Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20
Data usage per subs per month 8.52 8.74 9.06 9.77 10.37
% change 0% 3% 4% 8% 6%
Source: TRAI PIR
The Total Industry data usage has increased by 6% in the Sept quarter.
8.52 8.74 9.06
9.77 10.37
3%
4%
8%6%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20
Wireless data usage per subs per month (GB)
Data usage per subs per month % change
Industry voice usage per subs per month
(in minutes)Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20
MOU usage per subs per month 608 627 667 692 701 691
% change 4% 3% 6% 4% 1% -1%
Source: TRAI PIR
The Industry Voice usage per subscriber per month hasdecreased 1% in Sept 2019 quarter compared to the lastquarter.
608
627
667
692701
691
4%
3%
6%
4%
1%
-1%-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
560
580
600
620
640
660
680
700
720
Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20
Industry voice usage per subs per month
MOU usage per subs per month % change
© COPYRIGHT 2013, COAI 9
ARPU
Wireless ARPU
Source: TRAI
Monthly Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) for Wireless Services was at Rs.71 at end of the Qtr March 2019.
105
113
121125
83
7671
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Monthly Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) for Wireless Services (INR)
ARPU Trends (Avg) In Sept Quarter, the ARPU of the wireless services was Rs.74.38, while the data ARPU remained at Rs. 40.48.
Source: TRAI PIR
Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20
ARPU (In Rs.) 67 70.13 71.39 74.3 74.38
DATA ARPU (In Rs.) 40 44.97 36.38 40.44 40.48
ARPU growth -2.9% 4.7% 1.8% 4.1% 0.1%
DATA ARPU change 3.1% 12.4% -19.1% 11.2% 0.1%
67 70.13 71.3974.3
74.38
4044.97
36.38 40.4440.48
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20
in IN
R
ARPU trends
ARPU DATA ARPU
-2.9%
4.7%1.8%
4.1%
0.1%
3.1%
12.4%
-19.1%
11.2%
0.1%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20
% c
han
ge
ARPU trends growth
ARPU growth DATA ARPU change
Composition of ARPU
Source: TRAI PIR
Rental Revenue 35.24 40.30%
4.72 5.40%
Revenue from calls 0.85 1.00%
Revenue from SMS 40.48 46.30%
Revenue from data Usage 3.11 3.60%
Revenue from VAS 1.5 1.70%
Other Revenue
Revenue from outroamers 1.45 1.70%
Total revenue from subscribers (1) 87.35 100%
Net inter-operator settlement charges receivable (2) -12.97
Net Revenue (ARPU) per month(1+2) 74.38
Share of Revenue from data usage is around 46.30% of the total Revenue per Subs
Revenue per subs per monthShare of Total Revenue
35.24
4.720.85
40.48
3.11 1.5 1.45
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
RentalRevenue
Revenuefrom calls
Revenuefrom SMS
Revenuefrom data
Usage
Revenuefrom VAS
OtherRevenue
Revenuefrom
outroamers
40.30%
5.40%
1.00%
46.30%
3.60%1.70% 1.70%
Rental Revenue Revenue fromcalls
Revenue fromSMS
Revenue fromdata Usage
Revenue fromVAS
Other Revenue Revenue fromoutroamers
Voice and Data Realisation
Source: TRAI
Voice and Data Realisation has fallen significantly since September 2016.
Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19
Voice realisation 48 44 31 27 24 19 16 14 12 11 13 13 13
growth rate (%) -8% -30% -13% -11% -21% -16% -13% -14% -8% 18% 0% 0%
4844
3127
24
1916
1412 11
13 13 13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Se
p-1
6
De
c-1
6
Ma
r-17
Ju
n-1
7
Se
p-1
7
De
c-1
7
Ma
r-18
Ju
n-1
8
Se
p-1
8
De
c-1
8
Ma
r-19
Ju
n-1
9
Se
p-1
9
in p
ais
e/m
in
Voice realisation
18
16
1.9 1.7 2.1 1.8 1.4 1.17 1.07 1.02 0.78 0.75 0.68
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Se
p-1
6
De
c-1
6
Ma
r-17
Ju
n-1
7
Se
p-1
7
De
c-1
7
Ma
r-18
Ju
n-1
8
Se
p-1
8
De
c-1
8
Ma
r-19
Ju
n-1
9
Se
p-1
9
in p
ais
e/M
B
Data realisation
Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19
Data realisation 18 16 1.9 1.7 2.1 1.8 1.4 1.17 1.07 1.02 0.78 0.75 0.68
growth rate (%) -11% -88% -11% 24% -14% -22% -16% -9% -5% -24% -4% -9%
© COPYRIGHT 2013, COAI 14
Financial Trends
Revenue of Telecom Sector remains under pressureGross Revenue
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Industry GR Lakh Crore 2.13 2.34 2.55 2.64 2.75 2.55
growth rate (%) 10.0% 8.9% 3.6% 4.1% -7.3%
2.13
2.34
2.552.64
2.75
2.55
2.34
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
GR
(in
Rs
lakh
cro
res)
Industry GR (in Lakh Crores) (FY)
0.62
0.58
0.58
0.59
0.58
0.62
0.60
-6.1%-1.0%
2.0%
-1.0%
5.3%
-2.5%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
0.55
0.56
0.57
0.58
0.59
0.60
0.61
0.62
0.63
Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20
GR
(in
Rs
lakh
cro
res)
Industry GR (in Lakh Crores)
Source: TRAI Reports, GR Figures includes revenue from Access ,NLD & ILD
Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20
Industry GR Lakh Crore 0.62 0.58 0.58 0.59 0.58 0.62 0.60
growth rate (%) 1.8% -6.1% -1.0% 2.0% -1.0% 5.3% -2.5%
Source: TRAI
Industries AGR for the September Quarter decreased by 4.56%, and remained at Rs.1.45 Lakh Crores
Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR)
1.41
1.58
1.761.88 1.91
1.561.45
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
AG
R (
in R
s la
kh c
rore
s)
Industry AGR (in Lakh Crores) (FY)
0.36
0.370.36 0.36 0.36
0.39
0.37
2.39%-1.12%
-0.24% -0.34%
8.88%
-4.56%
-9.00%
-6.00%
-3.00%
0.00%
3.00%
6.00%
9.00%
12.00%
15.00%
0.33
0.34
0.35
0.36
0.37
0.38
0.39
0.40
Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20
AG
R (
in R
s la
kh c
rore
s)
Industry AGR (in Lakh Crores)
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Industry AGR Lakh Crore 1.41 1.58 1.76 1.88 1.91 1.56
growth rate (%) 12% 11% -207% 1% -18%
Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20
Industry AGR Lakh Crore 0.36 0.37 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.39 0.37
growth rate (%) -7.37% 2.39% -1.12% -0.24% -0.34% 8.88% -4.56%
Source: Operators Quarterly Results
Industry EBITDA
Q1 FY17 Q2 FY17 Q3 FY17 Q4 FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20
EBITDA 14.62 13.13 11.38 10.31 9.12 9.96 10.21 9.65 9.09 7.09 8.01 10.04 12.79 13.53
Growth Rate (%) -10.1% -13.3% -9.4% -11.6% 9.2% 2.4% -5.4% -5.8% -22.0% 12.9% 25.4% 27.4% 5.7%
14.62
13.13
11.38
10.31
9.12
9.9610.21
9.659.09
7.09
8.01
10.04
12.7913.53
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
Q1
FY17
Q2
FY17
Q3
FY17
Q4
FY17
Q1
FY18
Q2
FY18
Q3
FY18
Q4
FY18
Q1
FY19
Q2
FY19
Q3
FY19
Q4
FY19
Q1
FY20
Q2
FY20
Industry EBITDA (in '000 Crores)
-10.1%-13.3%
-9.4%
-11.6%
9.2%
2.4%
-5.4% -5.8%
-22.0%
12.9%
25.4%27.4%
5.7%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
Q1
FY17
Q2
FY17
Q3
FY17
Q4
FY17
Q1
FY18
Q2
FY18
Q3
FY18
Q4
FY18
Q1
FY19
Q2
FY19
Q3
FY19
Q4
FY19
Q1
FY20
Q2
FY20
Growth in EBITDA (in %)
Industry EBITDA reached Rs. 13.53 K Crores in September Quarter.
Source: Opeartors Qtr Results, * PBT : Includes 7 Operators Figures i.e. Airtel, RCom, Rjio, Idea , Vodafone, TTML, MTNL. Vodafoneidea (VIL) included from Q2FY19 Onwards, PAT iIncludes 6 Operators Figures i.e.
Airtel, RCom, Rjio, Idea , TTML, MTNL. Vodafoneidea (VIL) included from Q2FY19 Onwards
PBT and PAT of the Industry
Q1 FY17 Q2 FY17 Q3 FY17 Q4 FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20
PBT 2.22 2.72 -1.26 -18.41 -2.70 -8.54 -0.78 -2.37 -0.23 1.59 -7.42 -6.32 -9.42 -71.20
PAT 0.20 1.16 -1.58 -17.66 -2.70 -9.77 -1.93 -3.08 -1.71 0.67 -5.29 -4.41 -6.84 -78.32
PBT of the Industry reached Rs. -71.20 K Crores , while PAT remained at Rs. - 78.32 K Crores. This is due to the Supreme Court Judgement on the AGR.
2.22 2.72
-1.26
-18.41
-2.70
-8.54
-0.78
-2.37
-0.231.59
-7.42
-6.32
-9.42
-71.20
Q1
FY
17
Q2
FY
17
Q3
FY
17
Q4
FY
17
Q1
FY
18
Q2
FY
18
Q3
FY
18
Q4
FY
18
Q1
FY
19
Q2
FY
19
Q3
FY
19
Q4
FY
19
Q1
FY
20
Q2
FY
20
Industry PBT (in '000 Crores)
0.20
1.16-1.58
-17.66
-2.70
-9.77
-1.93
-3.08
-1.71 0.67
-5.29
-4.41
-6.84
-78.32
Q1
FY
17
Q2
FY
17
Q3
FY
17
Q4
FY
17
Q1
FY
18
Q2
FY
18
Q3
FY
18
Q4
FY
18
Q1
FY
19
Q2
FY
19
Q3
FY
19
Q4
FY
19
Q1
FY
20
Q2
FY
20
Industry PAT (in '000 Crores)
Source: TRAI
Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Q4FY16 Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20
L.F + SUC 48.0 48.0 50.0 51.0 49.0 44.0 40.0 38.0 37.0 36.0 31.6 30.8 30.1 31.5 31.3 34.1 33.0
The Industry Contribution to the Government Exchequer was Rs. 3300 Crores in September Quarter.
48.0 48.050.0 51.0
49.0
44.0
40.038.0 37.0 36.0
31.6 30.8 30.131.5 31.3
34.1 33.0
Q2
FY
16
Q3
FY
16
Q4
FY
16
Q1
FY
17
Q2
FY
17
Q3
FY
17
Q4
FY
17
Q1
FY
18
Q2
FY
18
Q3
FY
18
Q4
FY
18
Q1
FY
19
Q2
FY
19
Q3
FY
19
Q4
FY
19
Q1
FY
20
Q2
FY
20
in b
nLF & SUC
Contribution to Government Exchequer in (Rs. ’00 Crores)
© COPYRIGHT 2013, COAI 20
Telecom Infrastructure
Source: TARANG Sanchaar Portal
Total Number of BTS reached 22,33,063 on November 01, 2019.Pan India 2G/3G/4G Coverage
Number of BTS (Technology Wise) (as on November 01, 2019)
BTS Type Count
GSM 5,13,873
CDMA 886
3G 3,49,937
4G 13,66,212
WiMAX 2,155
Total 22,33,063
Thank You