Industry skills leadership The demand for skills
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Transcript of Industry skills leadership The demand for skills
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 1
Industry skills leadership
The demand for skills
presentation to
ITF conference 2013
Dr Ganesh NanaChief Economist
Business and Economic Research Ltd
12 June 2013
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 3
NZ population 2003 cf 2013
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 90+
000s
2003 2013
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 4
Change in populationover past ten years (2003 to 2013)
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 90+
000s
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 5
Change in populationover next ten years (2013 to 2023)
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 90+
000s
Statistics NZ cyclic migration scenario
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 6
Change in populationand over ten years hence (2023 to 2033)
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 90+
000s
Statistics NZ cyclic migration scenario
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 7
Summary population changesover ten year intervals
000sTotal popn
WAP (15+) 15-25 25-50 50-70 70+
2003-13 451 448 70 36 253 89
2013-23 441 411 -21 110 134 188
2023-33 382 364 22 140 -43 245
Statistics NZ cyclic migration scenario
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 8
Change in labour forceover next ten years (2013 to 2023)
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+
000s
Statistics NZ cyclic migration scenario
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 9
Labour force changes2013 to 2023 (000s)
Total 15-25 25-50 50-70 70+
301 -4 95 148 62
Statistics NZ cyclic migration scenario
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 10
Across the industries –issues, prospects and potential
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 11
0
3
6
9
12
15
Mar 04 Mar 07 Mar 10 Mar 13
$bn
Dairy export receipts12-month totals
3
4
5
6
Mar 04 Mar 07 Mar 10 Mar 13
$bn
Meat export receipts12-month totals
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Mar 04 Mar 07 Mar 10 Mar 13
$bn
Wine export receipts12-month totals
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 12
Agriculture
prospects/potential
issues/skill requirements• age of existing workforce• image
* remote / location• business expertise
* succession
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 13
0
1
2
3
Mar 04 Mar 07 Mar 10 Mar 13
$bn
Forestry export receiptsannualised totals
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 14
Forestry
prospects/potential
issues/skill requirements• age of existing workforce• turnover of existing workforce• safety• remoteness
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 15
Mining and oil & gas
prospects/potential
issues/skill requirements• mitigation environment effects• safety• remoteness
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 16
Manufacturing
prospects/potential
issues/skill requirements• wages and competitiveness• business expertise• primary processing• new markets
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 17
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Mar 03 Mar 05 Mar 07 Mar 09 Mar 11 Mar 13
milion m2
Non-residential building consents12-month total area
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 18
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Mar 03 Mar 05 Mar 07 Mar 09 Mar 11 Mar 13
000s000s
Statistics NZ
Residential bldg consents3-month totals
Rest of NZ (LHS) Canterbury (RHS)
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 19
Building and construction
prospects/potential
the future of NZ economy for next decade is in your hands
issues/skill requirements• competition for workforce from abroad• safety• building regulations
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 20
Foreign visitor nights dive
11
12
13
14
Sep 08 Mar 10 Sep 11 Mar 13
million
Statistics NZ
NZ international guest nights12-month totals
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 21
Yes, visitor numbers are climbing
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
Mar 01 Mar 05 Mar 09 Mar 13
millions
Statistics NZ
International visitorsannual totals
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 22
But, market is changing
20
30
40
50
Mar 01 Mar 05 Mar 09 Mar 13
%
Statistics NZ
International visitorsmarket share from Australia
20
24
28
32
36
Mar 01 Mar 05 Mar 09 Mar 13
%
Statistics NZ
International visitorsmarket share of VFR
0
3
6
9
12
Mar 01 Mar 05 Mar 09 Mar 13
%
Statistics NZ
International visitorsmarket share from China
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 23
Resulting in falling yields
4
5
6
7
8
Dec 03 Dec 06 Dec 09 Dec 12
$bn
Tourism export revenuesannualised totals
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 24
Tourism
prospects/potential
issues/skill requirements• customer service focus• the market (is changing fast)• business expertise
* SMEs cf larger corporates
• wages
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 25
Other servicesdomestic economy
prospects/potential
issues/skill requirements• wages / staff turnover• seen as short-term option, not career• competition for workforce
* from other industries* from abroad
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 26
Population serviceseg. education and health
prospects/potential
issues/skill requirements• wages• age of existing staff• competition for workforce from abroad
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 27
More generally
• proactive sector leadership* even in absence of growth, training required
to replace existing workforce* response to ageing, mentoring, succession* response to standards and related aspects
• use/attraction of recent migrants* skill requirements* familiarise with NZ context
• ethnicity dimension
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 28
Summary population changes2013 to 2023
000sTotal popn
WAP (15+) 15-25 25-50 50-70 70+
Māori 90 69 4 21 29 15
Total 441 411 -21 110 134 188
Statistics NZ cyclic migration and Series 6 scenarios
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 29
Economic dependency ratioratio of total popn to labour force
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2
2013 2023 2033 2043 2053
Statistics NZ cyclic migration scenario
The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 30
NZ 2023 population
161
155
156
156
165
179
187
161
139
127
142
142
145
126
107
83
53
27
14
153
148
148
149
150
165
179
163
149
140
158
155
157
135
115
94
64
37
25
200 150 100 50 0 50 100 150 200
0-4 years
5-9 years
10-14 years
15-19 years
20-24 years
25-29 years
30-34 years
35-39 years
40-44 years
45-49 years
50-54 years
55-59 years
60-64 years
65-69 years
70-74 years
75-79 years
80-84 years
85-89 years
90 years plus
000s
male female
Statistics NZ cyclic migration scenario