Industrial Digital Twins & APM - ARPA-E › sites › default › files › 09. Irving-APM.pdf ·...
Transcript of Industrial Digital Twins & APM - ARPA-E › sites › default › files › 09. Irving-APM.pdf ·...
Industrial Digital Twins & APM
15 May 2019
Digital Twin Platform Leader & Chief Engineer
GE Global ResearchRUSTY IRVING
© 2019 General Electric Company - All rights reserved
© 2019 General Electric Company - All rights reserved
Outline
Industrial Digital Twin Defined and Explained
The Path to Digital Twin
Digital Twin Examples and Impact
Trends and Future Vision
© 2019 General Electric. Not to be copied, distributed, or reproduced without prior approval.
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© 2019 General Electric Company - All rights reserved
Physical AssetDigital Twin
A Learning Digital Model
f(x)TRANSFER
FUNCTION
MACHINE
LEARNING
PHYSICS
MODELS
What is a Digital Twin?
© 2019 General Electric. Not to be copied, distributed, or reproduced without prior approval.
DIGITAL TWIN INCREASES PRODUCTIVITY AND ACHIEVES
BETTER OUTCOMES FOR CUSTOMERS
+
PER ASSET MODEL
CONTINUOUSLY LEARNS
SCALABLE
BUSINESS OUTCOMES
ADAPTABLE
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3
4
2
5
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© 2019 General Electric Company - All rights reserved
The Path to Digital Twin
1990s “M&D BUILD OUT”
• Systems still Reactive,
answered the question?
“What is Happening?”
• Online centers built out
Contractual Service
Agreements become the
business model
• Tech: Mix of Neural
Networks, Case-Based,
and other
2000s “PROGNOSTICS”
• Answered the question?
“What will break?”
• Examples: Early Warning
Systems
• Tech: Prior Methods,
Machine Learning,
Statistical
2010s “REMAINING USEFUL LIFE”
• Answered the question?
“When will it break?”
• Examples: Power Plant
OnLine Condition Based
Maintenance
• Tech: Prior Methods, Deep
Learning, Usage Based
Lifing
• Now answering many
questions: “Can I run the
asset hotter?,” “When
should I Inspect?,” “When
should I replace?”
• Enables What-If Scenarios,
System Optimization
• Examples: Power Plant
Efficiency Optimizer, Aviation
Analytics Based Maintenance
• Tech: Prior Methods, Cloud
Computing, Learning
2015+“DIGITAL TWINS”
• 1st M&D Systems answered
the question? “What
Happened?”
• Tech: Rule-Based
• Examples: Diesel Locomotive
Diagnostics
1980s“BREAK & FIX”
INDIVIDUAL ASSETS
SYSTEM OF ASSETS
RULES PHYSICS AND DATA BASED MODELS PHYSICS MODELS WITH LEARNING ECOSYSTEM
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© 2019 General Electric Company - All rights reserved
© 2019 General Electric Company - All rights reserved
Continuous prediction Digital Twin – Aviation engineC
um
ula
tive
Dis
tre
ss
Cycles
ABATENominal
environment
Harsh environment Optimized
Inspection Time and Shop
Schedule
Environmental conditions
Per flight data
Prior condition
Digital TwinPhysics + AI Models
INCREASED AVAILABILITY TO CUSTOMER
SAVES TENS OF $MM IN UNNECESSARY SERVICE OVERHAULS5
© 2019 General Electric Company - All rights reserved
© 2019 General Electric Company - All rights reserved
Plant operational data;
Weather data
Operational set points for
plant optimization
Optimization Digital Twin – 6FA Turbine Combined Cycle Plant
K E Y T E C H N O L O G I E S
Twins (gas turbines, bottoming cycle)
Learning
Optimizer
© 2019 General Electric. Not to be copied, distributed, or reproduced without prior approval.
AUTOMATED OPTIMIZER + TWIN TARGETING 0.5% HEAT RATE IMPROVEMENT
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© 2019 General Electric Company - All rights reserved
APM Reference Architecture & Service Process
© 2019 General Electric Company - All rights reserved
Plant asset with sensors Controls
DCS
On-site monitor data
Firewall
Service orientated architecture – M&D Infrastructure/analytics
Central iHistorianM&D warehouse Analytics
Historian
M&D portal/visualization
Asset model, site specific
condition
Load preset
Query data
Analysis
This Architecture Scales to 6,000 Assets, 400 GW of Power, 3MM Data Points/second
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Automated
Data Analysis
Customer or
CSL
M&D Frontline
Domain
Experts
Anomaly Detected
ServiceNow
60,000 alerts
10,000 calls
10,000 reports
20,000 cases
APM Infrastructure Yields Service Process
© 2019 General Electric Company - All rights reserved
Current Trends and Next Steps
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These Trends Will Enable Trusted Autonomous Operations
Humble AI
• Aware of its own competence, can learn, prescribe safe actions
• Fosters operator trust
Cyber Security
• Digital Ghost technology that works like the human immune system
• Can detect cyber attacks even when operator panel looks ok
Edge to Cloud
• 5G will provide comm speeds that enable Cloud controlled assets
• Complex models will become realized
Robotics
• All the above will enable next gen autonomous robots
• Dull, dirty, dangerous tasks will be performed by machines
Additive Manufacturing
• Print parts at the point of care
• Machines will be able to repair themselves
© 2019 General Electric Company - All rights reserved
Ultimate Vision – Immortal Machines
© 2019 General Electric Company - All rights reserved
GE90 1995Next
Engine
Continuous linkage provides deep insights and optimized outcomes