Indus Basin Irrigation

04/21/23 Potential for Water Wars 1

WATER MANAGEMENT

SHIFTING SANDS OF ORIGINAL ASSUMPTIONS;EMERGING ISSUES AND OPTIONS; ANDSTRATEGIC BRAINSTORMING

Compiled by: Dr. M.S Shafique


1. GENERAL INFORMATION

Water Management


POTENTIAL OBJECTIVE OF BASIN WATER MANAGEMENT

To meet water needs of different entities / sectors like domestic consumption, agriculture, livestock and industry within each unit of a basin as per water rights agreed.


SCOPE OF Water Management

In order to secure set objective, it can be defined as a process of acquisition of water from reservoirs, watershed zones, aquifers and / by rain-harvesting; water allocation among various sectors and regions within a basin; water distribution as agreed among all stakeholders; water application / consumption and disposal without causing any or minimum negative impacts / externalities.


Potential Objective of Irrigation Water Management

To supply the essential moisture for plant growth, which includes the transport of essential nutrients; and

To leach or dilute salts in the soil.


Irrigation Water Management

In view of the already set objectives of irrigation practice, irrigation management consists of determining when to irrigate, the amount of water to apply at each irrigation and during each stage of plant growth, and operation and maintenance of irrigation system.


Jammu Kashmir


Schematic Diagram of the Pakistani Indus Basin System


Ravi, Beas and Sutlej Linking in the Indian Indus Basin


Indian Indus Basin Irrigation System


River System Linking in India


History- Water Acquisition & Distribution within the Indus Basin


2. Indus Water Treaty 1960 –Between India & Pakistan


SIGNING OF INDUS WATER TREATY ON 19 SEPT. 1960


Indus Water Treaty 1960

Plan India PakistanInitial Indian 29 MAF/Year 90 MAF/Year

Initial Pakistani 15.5 102.5

Revised Indian All water from the E. Rivers & 7% of W. Rivers

Some water from E. rivers & 93% W. rivers

Revised Pakistani

30% E. rivers & nothing from W. rivers

70% E. rivers and all of W. rivers

World Bank Proposal

Entire flow from eastern rivers

All flow from the western rivers


INDUS WATER TREATY 1960


INDUS WATER TREATY 1960

Annexure A EXCHANGE OF NOTES BETWEEN GOVERNMENT OF INDIA AND GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN

Annexure B AGRICULTURAL USE BY PAKISTAN FROM CERTAIN TRIBUTARIES OF THE RAVI

Annexure C AGRICULTURAL USE BY INDIA FROM THE WESTERN RIVERS

Annexure D GENERATION OF HYDRO-ELECTRIC POWER BY INDIA ON THE WESTERN RIVERS

Annexure E STORAGE OF WATERS BY INDIA ON THE WESTERN RIVERS

Annexure F NEUTRAL EXPERT

Annexure G COURT OF ARBITRATION

Annexure H TRANSITIONAL ARRANGEMENTS


HOW DID THIS HAPPEN?

Ferozepur and Madhopur head-works given to India. June 1947, Kashmiris revolted against Maharaja of

Kasmir. Mahraja signed accession with India on 26th October

1947. Standstill Agreement signed on 18 December 1947. India cut off supplies from Ferozepur on 1st April

1948. Inter-dominion agreement signed on 4th of May 1948.


1960 Treaty

Despite indications to contrary India and Pakistan eventually signed international water treaty in 1960

Critical to disputes resolution was the intervention of the World Bank

Both countries had applied to W.B. for development loans Dispute arose in 1948 – Stulej River – India had control of

water that could turn entire Punjab region in desert – result

WB decided to refuse develop. loans to India and Pakistan


1960 Treaty

WB would approve loans if 3 conditions were met:

1)Indus basin had enough water for both countries

2) The basin was treated as a single unit implying all the rivers were to be discussed

3) Past grievances put aside and technical rather than a political focus retained


1960 Treaty

WB plan = divide Indus basin – India = 3 eastern rivers = Sutlej Beas Ravi

Pakistan – Chenab , Jhelum and the Indus Infrastructure needed to divide the basin – paid

for by the party benefiting under the beneficiary pays principle

Pakistan – not fully convinced refused to sign until 1958

Treaty formalized 1960


WATER USE FOR AGRICULTURE BY INDIA FROM WESTERN RIVERS


STORAGES PERMITTED FOR INDIA ON THE WESTERN RIVERS FOR HYDRO-POWER GENERATION


ORIGINAL ASSUMPTIONS


ASSUMPTIONS PRIOR TO THE INDUS WATER TREATY

Kashmir was bound to become part of Pakistan and hence efforts remained directed to hold on to Hyderabad state; and

Consequences of last minute changes in boundary commission regarding Madhupur and Ferozpure headworks were not fully realized.


SHIFTING SANDS OF PRE-IWT ASSUMPTION

No resolution of Kashmir in sight; No Hyderabad, Juna-Garh & Mandour;

and No Madhupur and Ferozpur headworks

and hence NO Ravi, Satluj and Beas (indirectly).


Original Assumptions about Sharing International River Basin

Lower riparian can not be deprived of established water use by an upper riparian;

Water can not be diverted to areas beyond river basin; and

No party is expected to manipulate or change an internationally agreed and signed treaty without due consent of other relevant party(ies).


Shifting sands of Original Assumptions about Sharing International River Basin

India Created conditions to deprive Pakistan waters from Ravi, Satluj and Beas;

India diverted water to non Indus Basin area of Rajhistan via Indra-Gandhi canal;

India is further creating conditions by developing HEP to manipulate flow downstream to Pakistan; and

India is developing capacity / potential to either starve Pakistan of water or generate devastating floods if and when required.


3. DEVELOPMENTS AFTER INDUS WATER TREATY


TARBELA DAM –THE INDUS


MANGLA DAM -JHELUM


ONGOING DEVELOPMENTS

Power, Politics & Population Pressures have tempted India to come up with dozens of power and irrigation projects


“Power Projects” on Chenab

Scheme MW Scheme MW

Gypsa 225 Dulhasti 780

Kirthai 400 Baglihar 900

Naunut 400 Sawal Kot 1200

Bursar 275 Salal 690

Parwal Dul 375


Projects on Jhelum

Krishanganga / Neelam Wullar Barrage Uri II


BAGLIHAR DAM ON CHENAB IN JAMMU


Neelam / Krishanganga River


Indian Plan for Diverting Krishanganga River


SAWALKOT HEP -CHENAB


SLAL HEP –CHENAB RIVER


4. OUR SITUATION

The Indus Water Treaty (1960) signed with India under Stress

Reactive instead of Proactive Approach of Pakistani Policy Makers


A1. INDUS WATER TREATY UNDER STRESS

No interference was agreed by India and Pakistan in the natural flows of the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab) and eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas and Sutlej), respectively.


A2. INDUS WATER TREATY UNDER STRESS

Strong perception exists in Pakistan that India is NOT abiding by the core principles of the treaty by either implementing or planning projects under the guise of hydroelectric generation with no downstream flow changes


A3 INDUS WATER TREATY UNDER STRESS

Pakistan strongly object to the designs of such projects for having potential to change / disrupt flows downstream

Some Indians are reacting to get out of the treaty obligations based on Pakistan’s objections to an agreed use of water for power generation


Average Annual River Flows


CHANGES IN IBIS FLOWS

River Av. Annual FlowMAF (1922-61)

Av. Annual FlowMAF (1960-95)

Indus 93.0 60.25

Jhelum 23.0 23.0

Chenab 26.0 25.7

Ravi 7.0 5.8

Sutlej 14.0 5.8

Kabul 26.0 22.3

Total 189.0 142.8


5. INDUS WATER STRESS AVOIDING STRATEGY

It is in the interest of India and Pakistan to follow the treaty in letter and spirit:

If projects-designed use only the run of the river water, Pakistan should not object; and

If the opted designs can have potential to disrupt supplies D/S, India must take steps to satisfy Pakistan


CAUTION FOR ALL CONCERNED

Undisturbed flow from the western rivers is must for survival of the country – no one should be allowed to play with it as it is matter of life and death for Pakistan.

We must have a strategy to ensure so. Absence of such strategy could spell disaster for the entire region!!!!


PAKISTAN’S WATER VISION 2025


WATER VISION 2025 (Pak)


WATER VISION 2025 (PAK)


STORY OF RIVER WATER APPORTIONMENT IN PAKISTAN


Province-wise Irrigated Areas


Irrigation Basin Irrigation System


CANAL WATER DIVERSIONS & OUTFLOW TO SEA


River water utilization

Pre Independence – To date MAF•Pre independence 64•Pre Indus water treaty 78.6 •Pre Mangla (1966-67) 87.7•Pre Tarbela 98.9•Present 105

• Water accord allocation117.35


How Did This Happen?

Any relevant history, facts, or strategies Original assumptions that are no longer

valid


History–Water Acquisition &Distribution within Pakistan


Anderson Committee 1935-37

pROVINCE cANAL sYSTEM

kHARIF / SUMMER CROPS (MFA)

rABI /WINTER CROPS (maf)

ANNUAL(maf)

Sindh Sukkar Barrage

15.25 9.34 24.59

Punjab Thal 2.17 0.98 3.15

Haveli 2.66 0.83 3.49

Panjnand 2.70 0.58 3.28

Satluj Valley Canals

9.16 2.08 11.24

Sarhad 0.18 0.13 0.31


Rao Commission / Sindh –Punjab Draft Agreement -1945

province annual allocation (maf)

Punjab 48.33

Sindh 44.82

Sarhad 5.01

Balochistan 1.22

Total Annual Allocations 99.38


Ad-hoc Water Allocation Formula-1947-91

province annual allocation (Maf)

Punjab 53.94

Sindh 44.09

Sarhad 5.63

Balochistan 1.69

Total Annual Allocations 105.35

Flood & Surplus Water Allocations (%)

Punjab 37

Sindh 37

Sarhad 14

Balochistan 12


Fazal-e-Akbar Committee-1970

Province For Kharif / summer crops (MAF)

for rabi / winter crops (MAF)

Total annual allocations (MAF)

Punjab 37.20 15.23 52.43

Sindh 33.61 10.18 43.79

Sarhad 3.38 1.94 5.32

Balochistan 2.22 0.48 2.70

Total Annual Allocations (MAF) 104.24

Surplus Water Allocations (%)

Punjab 40

Sindh 40

Sarhad 13

Balochistan 7


Anwar-ul-Haq /Haleem Commission-1980-82

province For kharif / summer crops (MAF)

for rabi / winter crops (MAF)

total annual allocations (MAF)

Punjab 34.60 19.83 54.49

Sindh 28.11 14.93 43.04

Sarhad 1.80 1.29 3.09 +3 = 6.09

Balochistan 1.29 0.82 2.1

Total Annaul Allocations (MAF) 105.72


Facts about Water Allocation

Changes in irrigated areas as canal commands developed;

Hydro-politics due to the division of the Indus Basin between India and Pakistan;

Creation of one unit of the present Pakistan; Re-division of one unit into four provinces;

and Provincial Hydro-politics in Pakistan


Strategies Opted by Stakeholders

Use of historic reports & commission to established water rights;

Use of political power to enhance individual positions;

Showing more water losses from Attock to Chashma Barrage; Showing excessive losses from Sukkar to Kotri reach of the Indus River; and

Taking advantage of strategic location.


Non-existing Original Assumptions

Supply-based equitable water rationing, based on per unit area, does not hold any more;

Crop-based terminology has been used to increase supplies per unit area of the CRBC;

Many times enhanced supplies per unit area in NWFP, and

Canals of Muzaffar Garh and DG Khan with extra flow; Sindh enhanced canal capacity to consume more

water /unit area; and Originally, there was no consideration for groundwater

and drainage.


ISSUES REGARDING WATER DISTRIBUTION AS PER WATER ACCORD OF 1991

Trust deficit regarding water distribution; Hydro-politics is holding back CBM like telemetry to function; Water Accord of 1991 is based on 117.35 MAF whereas

canal diversion remained below 106 MAF; Without additional storages, it is not possible to distribute

water as per 1991 Accord; Current situation demands perpetual distribution of short

supplies and hence debate goes on; and Current composition of IRSA is a theater of provincial hydro-

politics only.


Alternative Courses of Action

Fortunately, river-water apportionment accord is already in place since 1991;

Water apportionment Accord of 1991 is the only course to follow to keep our federation in tact;

All efforts should be directed to ensure that all provinces get their agreed share when enough stored river water to avail; and

For water distribution, Confidence building measures like telemetry system should be given a chance to work.


History –Water Acquisition & Distribution at Provincial level


Water Sources for Acquisition & Distribution

Canal Water; Groundwater; Wastewater; Drainage water; and Rain-water.


Water Management & Governance

Provincial Irrigation Departments for both management & governance – Past; and

Provincial Irrigation Departments for Governance and Provincial Irrigation and Drainage Authorities for Management – Current Direction.


Issues regarding provincial Water Acquisition & Distribution

Inter-provincial Hydro-politics; Organizational; Manipulation of the on-going change process; Battle over “Sir” or “Service” Orientation; Over-staffing; PID and / PIDA only concerned with limited water

sources; Corruption and slipping of perks of old times; Clueless-ness about making service sustainable, etc.


Options regarding Provincial Water Acquisition and Distribution

Pandora box of acquisition of water after 1991 Accord must not be allowed to open;

Human discretion for water distribution should be minimized by appropriate CBMs;

On-going reforms should be implemented in letter and spirit to make water distribution client-oriented;


Water Acquisition & Application at Farm Level


Original Assumptions – Farm Level Water Management

Famine-protection was its main objective; Cropping intensity was designed around 50-75%; Agriculture was conceived as subsistent instead of

commercial enterprise; Salinity and drainage concerns were not addressed; Water management was based on water rationing

rather water demanded or required; Groundwater was not part of this equation, etc.


Facts about On-farm Water Management

Cropping intensity has jumped to 125-200%; Agriculture is becoming like a commercial

enterprise; Groundwater extraction is quite common; Population explosion, increases in irrigated

areas, increase in high delta crops with too little additional water storages are facts on ground;

Marketing system favors middle-man rather for producer and consumer, etc.


Issues associated with On-farm Water Acquisition & Management

Groundwater quality & use concerns; No planned adjustments for intensive and commercial agriculture; Questionable profitability from agriculture as compared to other

sectors; Too cheap canal water; Switching difficulties from supply-based to demand base water

availability; Questionable conditions for efficient water application means;

and Not enough forward thinking and creation of conditions for

growing different crops in different zones based of water requirements, etc.


Options for On-farm Water Acquisition and Management

Creation of conditions favorable for water efficient application systems to switch profitable commercial crops adjacent to a market like the Middle East;

Facilitated use of acceptable quality ground-water (either as such or by treatment);

Opting ways to convert supply-based to demand –based system;

After making agriculture profitable enterprise, charge full price of canal water for encouraging efficient use of water; and

Proactive water management from now to face water crises later.


Basin-wide Recommendations


Indus Basin related Recommendations

Priority should be given to the Indus water projects NOT to loose Pakistan’s due share under the Treaty 1960.

Think-tanks on trans-boundary water management. IWT & Water Apportionment Accord of 1991 must be

made part of curriculum of all concerned education centers.

CBMs should be agreed and implemented for a smooth functioning of the Treaty.

Most Important: Keep creating conditions that will be there to face off worst case scenario if not, enjoy the fruits of efficient water management as such.


Recommendations for Water Distribution within Pakistan


Recommendations for Water Distribution within Pakistan

Accord of 1991 must be followed in its true letter and spirit – going back must not be an option;

New dams must be built without any further delay to implement 1991 Water Accord;

Focus must shift to CBMs to ensure water distribution as per the Accord instead of promoting distrust among stakeholders;

Agree to a plan of water sharing shortages; & Reorganize IRSA to make a neutral body.


Recommendations on Provincial Level


Recommendations about Water Management within each Province

Institutional reforms in irrigation departments must be followed in its true letter and spirit and should not be treated like a routine formality;

To encourage client orientation, management and regulatory departments should be detached;

Each province should either hold on to its share or sell its surplus water to encourage water efficiency and additional revenues;

To avoid discrimination, each province should devise new water allowance measures for equitable distribution; and

Each tail of secondary canal must have data loggers installed to ensure permitted supplies.


Recommendations about On-Farm Component


Recommendations for On-Farm Water Acquisition and Management

Studies are required to convert a supply-based system into demand-based system for making use of modern efficient water application;

Conditions should be created for horticulture as well as floriculture to save water as well as to turn subsistent source to commercial & profitable agriculture;

Proper groundwater extraction and use should be facilitated;

Studies should be initiated for rain-water harvesting and use modern systems to apply water efficiently.


Vision of Efficient On-Farm Water Application


Our Vision for the Future

Pakistan must manage its water resources most efficiently by initiating and creating necessary conditions now that favor crops of high value with low water requirements that are delivered by high efficiency application modalities aimed at addressing expected water flows and facilitating switch from subsistent to profitable agriculture within a time frame of say 10 years.

Alternative vision could be to make Pakistan an industrialized country within a specified period like Malaysia did under Mahatir Muhammad.


Summaries


Summary-1

In view of the prevailing conditions, Indus Water Treaty was the best possible outcome and focus should NOT be on finding faults rather exerting pressure by proposing CBMs to ensure its honest and sustainable implementation.

We must put in place necessary proactive measures to counter a situation that can arise if India gets capability and will to starve of water or flood Pakistan.


Summary -2

Water Apportionment Accord of 1991 must be treated as a sacrosanct agreement for the federation of Pakistan.

Focus must shift from finding faults with the Accord to ensure its sincere implementation by putting in place CBMs like telemetry system;

To distribute water as per the Accord, additional storages are unavoidable.


Per Capita Water Availability over Time


Storage per Person


Canal Withdrawal & Flow to Sea


Summary-3

Institutional reforms for provincial water management and regulation must be owned and supported by all concerned;

Groundwater extraction, quality management and use should be facilitated by holding one specific service body formally responsible; and

Off-system water storages should be studied for rain-water harvesting for its sale to users by companies.


Summary-4

For efficient water use as well as addressing future concerns for shortages of water, favorable conditions should be given due consideration right from now to face off devastation at eleventh hour;

Proper groundwater use; Trial for rain-water harvesting; & Plan proper use of wastewater.

Indus Basin Irrigation

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