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Indonesia’s Clean & Renewable Energy Overview and Prospects
Transcript of Indonesia’s Clean & Renewable Energy Overview and Prospects
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Indonesia’s Clean & Renewable Energy Overview and ProspectsMedco Power IndonesiaApril 2021
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MedcoEnergi is an integrated energy & natural resources company
MedcoEnergi 2020’s Production: Oil and Gas of 100 mboepd, gross power of 3.6 GW, and mining stockpile of 96 Mlbs copper, 42 Koz gold
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Medco Power is gearing up for the next energy transition
Geothermal Renewables O&MGas to Power
“Becoming Clean Independent Power Producer (IPP) and Reliable Operation & Maintenance
(O&M) Services Company of Choice”
EnergyTransition
Decarbonisation
Gas as Transition
HigherElectrification
Decentralization
Digitalization
EnergyStorage
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Medco Power ProfileMEB Gas 85 MWBatam Island
DEB Gas 85 MWBatam Island
Gas 20 MWBatam Island
ELB Gas 76 MW Batam Island
EPE Gas 12 MW South Sumatra
MPE Gas 12 MW South Sumatra
TJBPS Coal 1,320 MW (O&M)Central Java
Gas 50 MW (O&M)Lombok
Gas 25 MW (O&M)Nias Island
Gas 100 MW (O&M)Pontianak
Gas 100 MW (O&M)Lampung
Gas 50 & 25 MW (O&M)Bangka – Belitung
Gas 75 MW (O&M)Paya Pasir
Gas 75 MW (O&M)Duri
MRPR 275 MWRiau
ELB Gas 40 MW Batam Island
MPSI 275 MW (O&M)Riau
Luwuk Gas 40 MW (O&M)Luwuk
Ijen Geothermal 110 MWEast Java
BJI Mini Hydro 9 MWWest Java
PPP Mini Hydro 9 MWWest Java
SOL Geothermal 330 MWNorth Sumatra
MGS Geothermal 330 MW (O&M)North Sumatra
Gas Coal
Owned and operated by MPI
MPI JV and 3rd party plants operated by MPI
Geothermal Hydro
Sulut 1 100 MW (O&M)North Sulawesi
Timor 1 100 MW (O&M)Timor
Bonjol Geothermal 60 MWWest Sumatra
IBEA Best Clean & Renewable Co. (MPI)
Gold Proper
Asian Power Award (MRPR)
Gold Proper Award (TJBPS)
Total IPP & O&M Capacity ~3,600 MW
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Fundamentally, Indonesia is well positioned to cultivate its renewable energy sector
Jakarta
Bali
Timor
MoluccasIndonesia Energy Mix, Mtoe
Energy Source Potential (GW)
Geothermal 23.9
Hydro 94.5
Solar 207.9
Wind 60.6
Biomass 32.6
Ocean 17.9
Renewable Energy Potential in Indonesia
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Indonesia’s Population 2020 – 2050FMn People
243 242272
305 339373
408
243 242 266 295327
357390
2019 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Optimistic Moderate
Indonesia’s Electricity Demand (2019 – 2030F)TWh
Indonesia’s GDP Growth (2019 – 2022F)
2020-2.2%
5,0%
2019
4.4%
2021F
3.1%
4.8%
2022F
3.8%
Coal
Crude Oil
Gas
Renewables
Available resources for renewables
Growing population and economy
Government’s target for renewables capacity
Government’s policy on renewable
4 Sup’t Regulation for Renewable, e.g.:
Source: Fitch Solution, EMIS, EIA, DEN, SKK Migas, IESR, MEMR, MPWPH, RUPTL 2021-2030, World Bank, MPI analysis
Replacement of BOOT scheme with BOO scheme
MEMR Reg. No 4/2020
273 287 299 310 318 326 331
20252020 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Presidential Decree on Renewable (Draft) Renewable tariffs
a
b
30%
25%22%
23% 25%
20%24%
31%
39%
31%
20%
11%
2025 2050
2020
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2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
7372063
31044616
91579910
1061112724
1486116148
Power Market in Indonesia
Forecast
Planned Renewable Generation CapacityAdditional Capacity (MW)
39%
13%
5% 3%
40%
Others
Geothermal
Hydro/Mini Hydro
56%
22%
23%
Coal CombinedCycle
Gas/Gas Engine Base Renewable
Retail (Solar Rooftop) Power Plant CapacityProjected Capacity (MW)
154 94
5 1377 22
14
4402 47
94
4985
6271 71
47 7870
583 11
19 1728 24
03
4756 51
18 5628 64
55
7716 82
80
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
PLN IPP
Source: RUPTL 2021-2030, IESR, HEESI, MPI analysis
Planned Power Plant Generation Capacity%
7.6 16.7 30.468.3
100.5139.2
184.5236.2
294.5359.3
430.6508.4
592.7
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Moderate scenarioPessimistic scenario
Note: Others are Biomass, Waste, Tidal
Others: Solar, Wind, BiomassWaste, Tidal, Hybrid
Planned Renewable Plants – PLN vs IPPAdditional Capacity (MW)
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Renewable challenges in Indonesia
GeothermalExploration risk
Social resistance and water usage in national park
SolarLocal content requirements
Land acquisition
Gas to Power
Infrastructure and scattered demand
Complex stakeholder structure
WindDemand-resource matching
EPC experience
Preference of short-term low cost energy
sources
Renewable energy tariff
Regulatory & policy uncertainty
Land acquisitions
Renewable Challenges
However, with the government of Indonesia putting efforts to solve issues on renewables, these challenges can also be viewed as opportunities for the power players.
HydroBankability (e.g., mini hydro)
Permitting issues
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Extensive experiences working with IFC & Japanese companies
Sarulla Geothermal (330 MW)
• Shareholders: INPEX Corp, ITOCHU Corp, Kyushu Electric, Ormatand Medco Power
• Lenders: JBIC, Commercial Japanese Banks, ADB, SocGen, ING
• Shareholders: Mitsubishi Corp, Korea Gas Corp, Pertamina(Persero) and Medco Energi
• Lenders: JBIC, MUFG, Mizuho Bank, Ltd., SMBC, and Korea Exim Bank
Donggi Senoro LNG
Medco Power x Kansai Electric Power Strategic Alliance
Expectations
Technology
Financing
New Business Opportunities
• Shareholders: Medco Power, RATCH
• Lenders: IFC, ADB, SMBC, MUFG
Riau CCPP (275 MW, COD 2021)
This document contains certain results of operation, and may also containcertain projections, plans, strategies, policies and objectives of the Company,which could be treated as forward looking statements within the meaning ofapplicable law. Forwards looking statements, by their nature, involve risksand uncertainties that could cause actual results and development to differmaterially from those expressed or implied in these statements.
PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk and PT Medco Power Indonesia do notguarantee that any action, which should have been taken in reliance on thisdocument will bring specific results as expected.
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