Indonesian Forestry Outlook 2020

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    Indonesian Forestry Outlook 2020

    Pusat Rencana dan Statistik Kehutanan

    Departemen Kehutanan Republik Indonesia

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    Introduction

    Current state of forests and forestry

    Factors that influence the future state offorests and forestry

    Probable scenarios and their implications

    The State of Indonesia forests and forestry in2020

    Recommended strategic actions and policies

    Outline

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    Determining involved forestry experts, and collecting andclarifying preliminary data

    Identifying forest resources potential and issues and developinga base analysis that picture the current state of Indonesia

    forests and forestry Conducting two focus group discussions to get important feed

    backs and to identify factors that influence the future state offorests and forestry as well as to develop probable scenariosand their implication

    Writing a draft report that pictures the future state of Indonesiaforests and forestry in 2020, and contain recommendedstrategic actions and policies that need to be followed up

    Conducting two a one-day workshops that discusses the draftreport before completing the Indonesia Forestry Outlook 2020.

    Introduction:Methodology

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    Trends in forest resource

    Wood and wood products

    Wood as a source of energy

    Non-Wood forest products

    The Service functions of forests Key issues

    Current State ofForests and Forestry

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    Land Use in Indonesia

    (Total Land Area 187.9 million ha)

    Limited Production

    Forest

    14%

    Conservation Forest

    11%

    Protection Forest

    16%

    Permanent Production

    Forest

    19%

    Non-Forest Area

    28%

    Conversion

    Production Forest

    12%

    Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005

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    Land Cover by Island

    0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

    Papua

    Kalimantan

    Sumatera

    Sulawesi

    Maluku

    Jawa

    Bali & Nusa Tenggara

    Islands

    Million ha

    Forested Land

    Not Forested Land

    No Data

    Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005

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    Land Cover by Function(Total Land Area 187.9 million ha)

    14.4

    22.1

    18.2

    20.6

    10.7

    8.0

    4.0

    5.6

    5.8

    12.6

    11.1

    44.2

    1.5

    2.3

    1.7

    2.0

    1.0

    2.2

    0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

    Conservation Forest

    Protection Forest

    Limited Production

    Forest

    Permanent Production

    Forest

    Conversion

    Production Forest

    Other Land Area(APL)

    Million ha

    Forested Land

    Not Forested Land

    No Data

    Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005

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    Forest Area, by Function and Island

    (Total Forest Area 133.6 million Ha)

    0.0

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    20.0

    25.0

    30.0

    35.0

    40.0

    45.0

    Papua Kalimantan Sumatera Sulawesi Maluku Jawa Bali & Nusa

    Tenggara

    MillionHa

    Conversion Production Forest

    Permanent Production Forest

    Limited Production Forest

    Protection Forest

    Conservation Forest

    Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005

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    Growing Stock of Indonesia Forests

    Primary forest 56.5 152.0

    Secondary forest 51.3 103.2

    Plantation Forest 97.3 97.3Damaged forest 26.6 55.5

    Primary forest 63.5 171.1

    Secondary forest 25.0 56.5

    Damaged forest 13.0 46.5

    Primary forest 47.7 146.8Secondary forest 26.6 82.2

    Damaged forest 11.5 47.4

    Primary forest 32.2 127.6

    Secondary forest 23.1 53.6

    Damaged forest 13.0 38.0

    Convertible Production

    Forest

    Forest Function

    Production Forest

    Protection Forest

    Conservation Forest

    Growing Stock (M3/Ha)

    Commercial

    speciesAll species

    Forest Condition

    Source: Calculated based on Neraca Sumberdaya Hutan 2002 (MOF, 2004)

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    Change in forest cover in 2000-2003

    2000 2003 2000 2003 2000 2003 2000 2003

    A. Forest Area 29.4 28.7 24.3 28.8 6.9 3.3 60.6 60.8

    B. Non-Forest Area 3.4 2.4 32.1 35.5 3.8 1.3 39.4 39.232.9 31.1 56.4 64.3 10.7 4.6 100.0 100.0

    A. Forest Area 14.0 16.2 8.9 6.7 0.5 0.5 23.4 23.4

    B. Non-Forest Area 3.7 6.9 70.0 69.3 2.7 0.4 76.6 76.6

    17.7 23.1 79.2 76.0 3.2 0.9 100.0 100.0

    A. Forest Area 49.4 48.0 19.5 25.1 7.0 3.5 75.9 76.6

    B. Non-Forest Area 6.2 5.3 15.3 17.1 2.6 1.1 24.1 23.4

    55.5 53.2 34.8 42.2 9.7 4.6 100.0 100.0

    A. Forest Area 38.2 42.5 8.9 12.0 15.5 8.0 62.7 62.5

    B. Non-Forest Area 6.7 5.6 25.5 28.3 5.0 3.6 37.3 37.5

    44.9 48.1 34.6 40.3 20.5 11.6 100.0 100.0

    A. Forest Area 17.9 19.3 17.0 15.1 4.1 4.7 39.0 39.1

    B. Non-Forest Area 9.1 17.6 45.2 40.6 6.6 2.8 61.0 60.9

    27.1 36.9 62.2 55.6 10.7 7.5 100.0 100.0

    A. Forest Area 46.0 49.3 21.5 25.7 23.6 16.0 91.1 91.1

    B. Non-Forest Area 2.2 2.3 4.6 5.7 2.1 1.0 8.9 8.9

    48.2 51.6 26.2 31.4 25.6 17.0 100.0 100.0

    A. Forest Area 73.7 77.9 10.8 14.7 12.8 4.8 97.3 97.3

    B. Non-Forest Area 1.5 1.5 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.1 2.7 2.7

    75.2 79.4 11.7 15.7 13.1 4.9 100.0 100.0

    A. Forest Area 44.7 45.7 17.0 20.8 9.2 4.5 70.9 71.1

    B. Non-Forest Area 4.3 4.2 22.0 23.5 2.8 1.2 29.1 28.9

    49.0 50.0 39.0 44.3 12.0 5.7 100.0 100.0

    ISLAND

    PERCENTAGE OF FOREST COVER

    FORESTED LAND NON FORESTED LAND NO DATA TOTAL

    SUMATERA

    Total

    JAVA

    Total

    KALIMANTAN

    Total

    SULAWESI

    Total

    BALI & NUSATENGGARA

    Total

    MALUKU

    Total

    PAPUA

    Total

    INDONESIA

    Total

    Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005

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    Production Forest Area by Forest Condition

    Production Forest Area (60.9 million ha)

    Primary Forest

    24%

    Secondary Forest

    36%Plantation

    4%

    Not Forested Land

    30%

    No Data

    6%

    Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005

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    Production Forest Area by Condition and Major Island

    Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005

    Production Forest Area (60.9 millions ha)

    0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0

    Papua

    Kalimantan

    Sumatera

    Sulawesi

    Maluku

    Jawa

    Bali & Nusa

    Tenggara

    Million ha

    Primary Forest

    Secondary Forest

    Plantation

    Not Forested Land

    No Data

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    The Development of Forest Concessionaires, 1993-2007

    Source: Executive, Indonesia Strategic Forestry Data, MOF, various years

    0.00

    10.00

    20.00

    30.00

    40.00

    50.00

    60.00

    70.00

    1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

    Year

    Millionha

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    Un

    it

    Area (Million ha)

    Unit

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    Distribution of Forest Concessionaires in NaturalProduction Forest as of August 2007, by company type

    21520.4

    131.0

    87 6.6

    8 0.8

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    Unit Area (Million Ha)

    Percentag

    eJoint-VentureState-Shared Equity

    State-Owned

    Private

    Source: Executive, Indonesia Strategic Forestry Data 2007 ( MOF 2007)

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    Yield and rotation of Indonesia's fast growing species

    Acacia auriculiformis 12 - 23 8 -1 7

    Acacia magnium 46 - 50 9

    Agathis loranthifolia 27.7 - 24.9 30 - 50

    Paraserianthes falcataria 37.4 15

    Anthocephalus cadamba 20 - 24 5 - 10

    Araucaria cuninghamii 17.0 - 18.5 9.5Cassia siamea 15 17

    Casuarina equisetifolia1

    10 - 20 7 - 10

    Dalbergia latifolia 23.7 40

    Eucalyptus deglupta 24.5 - 34 9

    Gmelina arborea 35 7

    Maesopsis eminii 13 - 34 10

    Musanga smithii 14 - 19 9.5

    Pinus merkusii 19.9 - 22.4 15 - 25

    Pinus caribaea 24 7

    Swietenia macrophylla 15 - 20 40 - 50

    Sesbania grandiflora 25 31in ton/ha/year

    Species

    Mean annual increment

    at an operationas scale

    (m3/ha/year)

    Age (year)

    Source: Manual Kehutanan (MOF, 1992)

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    Certified Forest Management Units in Indonesia Under

    LEI Timber Certification Scheme as of September 2007

    Source: The Indonesian Ecolabeling Institute

    FMU Gross Area (ha) Issuance Year Forest Type

    PT. Diamond Raya Timber 90,957 2001 Natural Forest

    PT. Intraca Wood Manufacturing 250,000 2001 Natural Forest

    PT. Inhutani I, Unit Labanan 82,240 2001 Natural Forest

    PT. Sari Bumi Kusuma 147,600 2002 Natural Forest

    PT. Erna Djuliawati 184,206 2003 Natural Forest

    PT. Sumalindo Lestari Jaya II 269,660.10 2003 Natural Forest

    KPS Ds. Selopuro-Wonogiri 262.77 2004 Community-basedForest

    KPS Ds. Sumberejo-Wonogiri 547.77 2004 Community-basedForest

    Koperasi Wana Manunggal Lestari 815.18 2006 Community-basedForest

    Wono Lestari Makmur 1,179.00 2007 Community-basedForest

    Catur Giri Manunggal 2,434.24 2007 Community-basedForest

    Total 1,046,098.13 - -

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    Community Forest (Hutan Rakyat - private lands )

    Community Forest or Hutan Rakyat(Total area 1.57 millions ha)

    Jawa

    50%

    Bali dan Nusa

    Tenggara

    12%

    Kalimantan

    9%

    Sulawesi

    13%Sumatera

    14%

    Maluku

    1%

    Papua

    1%

    Community forest plantations are about 124.467 ha

    (Hutan Kemasyarakatan - public lands )Source: Executive, Indonesia Strategic Forestry Data, MOF, various years

    Source: Direktorat Bina Usaha Perhutanan Rakyat (2004)

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    Deforestation

    Source: Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2007

    0.90

    1.80

    2.83

    1.08

    0.00

    0.50

    1.00

    1.50

    2.00

    2.50

    3.00

    3.50

    4.00

    1982-1990 1990-1997 1997-2000 2000-2005

    Hectare(m

    illions)

    I d i L d ti i 1994 2006 b

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    Indonesia Log production in 1994-2006, by source(Changes in source and quality)

    0.0

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    20.0

    25.0

    30.0

    35.0

    1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000*) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

    Year

    Volume

    (MillionM3

    Natural Production Forest ( RKT ) Conversion Production Forest (IPK) Izin Sah Lainnya ( ISL )

    Plantation (Perum Perhutani) Industrial Plantation Forest (HTI)

    Source: Executive, Indonesia Strategic Forestry Data 2007 ( MOF 2007)

    F t A d l d ti th i d 1994

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    Forest Area and log production over the period 1994-2006 by Major Island

    20%

    39%3%

    9%

    2%

    0%41%

    39%8%

    3%

    5%

    3%22%

    7%

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    Area Log production

    Share(%

    )

    Papua

    Maluku

    Sulawesi

    KalimantanBali dan Nusa Tenggara

    Jawa

    Sumatera

    Sources: Areas were calculated based on Rekalkulasi Penutupan Lahan Indonesia 2005, Centre of ForestInventory and Mapping, 2005; Log production based on Indonesia Forestry Statistics, 1994-2006

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    State of Indonesia wood products Industry in 2006

    Item

    Wood industry

    Sawnwood &Woodworking

    Plywood &Veneer

    PulpFurniture

    (2005)

    Number ofCompany (Unit)

    1600 (602); 90%are SME

    130 (83) 13Mostly Home

    industry

    Installed Capacity

    (mn M3 or mn Adt)10.49 11.09 6.45

    Production

    (mn M3 or mn Adt)4.46 4.66 5.67

    Export Quantity

    (mn M3 or mn ton)2.3 2.91 2.80 0.8

    Export Value(US$bn)

    1.29 1.30 1.12 1.9

    Export destinations EU, USA,Japan, China

    Japan, USA,UK

    China, S.Korea,Italy, Japan

    USA, Japan,Holland, France

    Sources:BRIK (2006), MOF (2007); APKI (2007)

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    Rapid growth and structural change in Indonesian woodindustry during 1980-2006

    Sources: Sawnwood dan Plywood+Veneer (FAO 2008); Woodworking+Block+Particle (MOF 2007); Pulp(APKI 2007)

    0.0

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    20.0

    25.0

    1980 1993 2006

    Year

    MillionM3orAdt

    Sawnwood Plywood Veneer Block Board Wood Working Particle Board Chipwood Pulp

    Change in Indonesia wood industry structure as

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    Change in Indonesia wood industry structure asindicated by round wood equivalent (RWE) consumption

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    1980 1993 2006

    Year

    RWEConsumption

    Pulp

    Woodworking+Block+Particleboard+Chipwood

    Plywood+Veneer

    Sawnwood

    Sources: Sawnwood dan Plywood+Veneer (FAO 2008); Woodworking+Block+Particle (MOF 2007); Pulp(APKI 2007)

    Declining in utilization rate of Indonesia wood products

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    Declining in utilization rate of Indonesia wood productsindustry capacity (1987-2006)

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    1987 2006

    Year

    Utilizatio

    nrate(%

    Sawnwood Plywood+Veneer Pulp

    Sources: Sawnwood dan Plywood+Veneer (FAO 2008); Woodworking+Block+Particle (MOF 2007); Pulp(APKI 2007)

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    Source: Computes based on FAO (2008)

    Indonesia Export Values of Wood Products

    (1980-2006)

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    6,000

    1980 1993 2006

    Year

    Million

    USD

    Wood CharcoalPulp and Paper

    Wood Based Panel

    Sawnwood

    Chips and Particles

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    Indonesia Import Values of Wood Products

    (1980-2006)

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    1,200

    1980 1993 2006

    Year

    Million

    USD

    Wood CharcoalPulp and Paper

    Wood Based Panel

    Sawnwood

    Chips and Particles

    Source: Computes based on FAO (2008)

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    Indonesia's Shares to the World Wood Products Exports

    (1980-2006)

    0.0%

    5.0%

    10.0%

    15.0%

    20.0%

    25.0%

    30.0%

    35.0%

    1980 1993 2006

    Year

    Percentag

    e(%)

    Chips and Particles

    Sawnwood

    Wood Based Panel

    Pulp and Paper

    Wood Charcoal

    Source: Computes based on FAO (2008)

    Biomass: 35% 37% of Final energy consumption

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    Source: Statistics of Energy Economics (2007)

    Biomass: 35%-37% of Final energy consumptionWood energy: 80% of Biomass energy consumption

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    Source: Statistics of Energy Economics (2007)

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    Non-Wood Forest Products

    Total Exports Value (USD 2.62 billions)

    Other

    9%

    Spiritus Oil resin0%

    Ter Kayu

    0%

    Bahan

    Penyamak/Gambir/T

    annin

    2%

    Terpentin

    3%

    Rattan handycraft

    2%

    Fauna

    1%

    Flora

    0%

    Sirlak, Getah dan

    Damar

    73%

    Wood charcoal10%

    Semi-finished rattan

    products

    9%

    Sources: Indonesia Forestry Statistics, MOF, various years

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    Conservation Forest

    Terresterial Conservation Area

    0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0

    Sumatera

    Jawa

    Bali dan Nusa Tenggara

    Kalimantan

    Sulaw esi

    Maluku

    Papua

    Million Ha

    Cagar Alam (Strict Nature Reserve) Suaka Margasatwa (Wildlife Sanctuary)

    Taman Wisata Alam (Nature Recreational Park) Taman Buru (Game Hunting Park)

    Taman Nasional (National Park) Taman Hutan Raya (Grand Forest Park)

    Source: Indonesia Forestry Statistics 2006 (MOF 2007)

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    Conservation Forest

    Marine Conservation Area

    0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

    Sumatera

    Jawa

    Bali dan Nusa Tenggara

    Kalimantan

    Sulaw esi

    Maluku

    Papua

    Million Ha

    Cagar Alam (Strict Nature Reserve) Suaka Margasatwa (Wildlife Sanctuary)

    Taman Wisata Alam (Nature Recreational Park) Taman Nasional (National Park)

    Source: Indonesia Forestry Statistics 2006 (MOF 2007)

    T l N b f Vi i

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    Total Number of Visitors

    0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

    Year

    Thousan

    dp

    eople

    Taman Nasional (National Park)

    Taman Hutan Raya (Grand Forest Park)

    Taman Wisata Alam (Nature Recreational Park)

    Total Number of Foreign Visitors

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

    Year

    Thousan

    dp

    eople

    Source: Indonesia Forestry Statistics 2006 (MOF 2007)

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    Key issues

    Illegal logging and trade

    Revitalization of forest industry

    Deforestation and natural forest degradation

    Poverty alleviation of communities around forests

    Land tenurial disputes, especially related to customarylaw communities

    Establishment of community forest

    Establishment of forest management unit

    Improvement of forest governance

    Improvement of human resource quantity and qualityin forestry sector

    Improvement of forestry research and developmentfunctions

    Factors that influence the future state of forests and

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    Factors that influence the future state of forests andforestry: Distribution of population, forestry and poverty

    Source: BPS (2003) and World Bank (2006)

    Forest, Rural Pop'n, & Poverty Indicators

    0.0%

    10.0%

    20.0%

    30.0%

    40.0%

    50.0%

    60.0%

    70.0%

    80.0%

    1 Sumatera 2 Java 3 Kalimantan 4 Sulawesi 5 Bali & NTT 6 Maluku 7 Papua INDONESIA

    % State Forest w/ Actual Cover % Prov Area w/ Actual Forest Cover (incl. private)

    % Rural Pop'n (% Pop'n Perdesaan) BPS 2003 % in Poverty (% Penduduk Miskin) BPS 2003

    Factors that influence the future state of

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    There have been important and growing changes inregulatory structures, transparency, scrutiny andinvolvement of civil society in Indonesia.

    The spotlight on illegal logging has intensified.

    Anti-corruption forces in government forestry agencies,private industry, NGOs and the media are workingtogether against the entrenched special interests of thepast, which continue to wield great influence.

    New laws are being passed or considered ontransparency, conflict resolution, agrarian reform,natural resource management and civil service reform.

    It is recognized that the forestry policy environment ismulti-sector in character and requires interdepartmental

    and multi-stakeholder approaches

    Factors that influence the future state offorests and forestry:The political and institutional environment

    Factors that influence the future state of

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    Gross Domestic Product: 3.3% - 4.3% (1993 -2005)

    Foreign Exchange: US$ 6.24 bn or 11.7% (1997) , US$5.41 bn or 6.1% (2006)

    Government Revenue:Rp 1.16 tn or 1.7%Rp 3.37 tnor 0.7% (1993-2005)

    Direct Employment: 500 600 thousand employees

    Factors that influence the future state offorests and forestry:Economic changes

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    Probable scenarios and their implications:

    Rationale for scenario definition

    Scenarios analysis is developed based on two mostuncertain or unpredictable variables in Indonesia: thegovernance and economic development factors

    By doing this, policy measures can be developed that

    take the main risks to the sector into account This also provides an opportunity to reflect on forestry

    as one of many sectors within a dynamic economy

    P b bl i d h i i li i

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    Probable scenarios and their implications:

    Scenarios

    Focus on total degraded forest area because of the vastland area involved (33.4 million ha), the rapid rate ofchange of land status from forested to non-forested, therelatively unmanaged status and the most obvious andlogical places to begin to think about rationalizing the

    forest estate and allowing more equitable and pro-pooraccess and activities

    Rehabilitation and plantation development are thereforeof central importance to the forestry sector in Indonesiagiven the reduction in supply from natural forests

    Two major forestry policy objectives: forest rehabilitationand plantation development were then consideredwithin the two factors chosen: (a) effectiveness of policyimplementation and institutions, and (b) economic

    growth rate

    P b bl i d h i i li i

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    Probable scenarios and their implications:

    Scenarios

    Fasteconomic

    growth

    2. Unsustainable growthForest rehabilitation unlikely

    Development of privately ownedplantations possible but somegovernment support needed.

    Little chance of development ofcommunity plantations althougheconomic development may helpresolve land disputes.

    4. Sustainable developmentForest rehabilitation andplantation developmentproceed on the basis ofeffective policy implementationand sufficient investment.

    Sloweconomic

    growth

    1. Socio-economicdevelopment stalls

    Forest rehabilitation unlikely

    Plantation development unlikely.

    3. Low-growth development

    Forest rehabilitation stillpossible but only with policymeasures based on allocationof land and rights rather thaneconomic incentives.

    Poor policy implementation Effective policy implementation

    Probable scenarios and their implications:

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    FOREST

    AREAWOOD

    PROCESSINGPRICES &

    COSTS

    Revenue,Profit, TaxesIN

    DICATORS

    Prod. Volume

    Forest Areas

    PLANTATIONS

    ENVIRON. COSTS

    EMPLOYMENT

    ALT. LAND USES

    Data Sources

    Neraca Sumber Daya Hutan

    Statistik Kehutanan and BPS

    Respected published sources

    Value (monetized) measures

    Timber harvest & processing

    Environmental services lost

    Production on alt. land uses

    Physical measures Forest area & planting by forest type

    Timber harvest & volume of processed wood

    Gross Revenue, Tax Revenue, Profit

    Numbers of people employed

    Probable scenarios and their implications:Scenario Analysis Approach

    The State of Indonesia forests

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    Forest resources

    Wood and wood products

    Wood as a source of energy Future of non-wood forest products

    Service functions of forests

    Social functions of forests

    The State of Indonesia forestsand forestry in 2020

    Forest resources:

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    Forest resources:The Current and Future State, by forest type and scenario

    Forestry Outlook Scenarios: Physical Indicator Comparison Areas of

    Different Types of Forest

    0.00

    20.00

    40.00

    60.00

    80.00

    100.00

    120.00

    140.00

    Forest in 2006 S1 S2 S3 S4

    Millionha

    Primary Forest Secondary Forest Plantations SILIN Non-Forested

    Forest resources:

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    2006 2008 2010 20122014 2016 2018 2020

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    55

    60

    65

    MillionsofHectar

    es

    Forestry Outlook Scenarios: Physical Indicator Comparison

    Trend of Damaged Forest Area

    S1S2S3S4

    Forest resources:Trend of total damaged forest areas during the period 2006-2020

    Forest resources:

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    Forest resources:Trend of total primary forest areas during the period 2006-2020

    2006 2008 20102012 2014 2016 2018 2020

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    MillionsofHectar

    es

    Forestry Outlook Scenarios: Physical Indicator Comparison

    Trend of Primary Forest Area

    S1S2S3S4

    Forest resources:

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    Forest resources:The forest resource under Sustainable development scenario (S4)

    8.5

    13.3

    10.1

    5.3

    31.0

    10.5

    5.5

    5.3

    10.7

    5.6

    3.9

    12.2

    0.63.3 3.21.7

    0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.

    Production Forest

    Protection Forest

    Conservation Forest

    Convertible ProductionForest

    Million ha

    Primary forest

    Secondary forest

    Not forested

    TPTII System

    Pulpwood Plantation

    Community Timber Plantation

    Timber Plantation

    Wood and wood products:

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    Wood and wood products:Annual projection of timber production 2007-2020

    Forestry Outlook Scenarios: Physical Indicator Comparison

    Trend of Timber Production

    0

    25

    50

    75

    100

    125

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    Milli

    on

    sofM3

    S1S2S3S4

    Wood and wood products:

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    Wood and wood products:Annual projection of pulpwood production 2007-2020

    Forestry Outlook Scenarios: Physical Indicator Comparison

    Trend of Pulpwood Production

    0

    25

    50

    75

    100

    125

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    Millio

    nsofM3

    S1S2S3

    S4

    W d d d d t

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    Wood and wood products:Product, consumption, exports, and growth

    The annual production and consumption growths ofplywood, block board, sawnwood, and pulp would beincreased in the range of 10%-15%, 28%-34%, 17%-23%, and 9%-10%, respectively; while, their annualexport growths would be increased in range of 12%-

    17%, 28%-34%, 17%-23%, and 7%to- 8%, respectively. Plywood, veneer, and block board industry would still

    face a log deficit until the year of 2017, but, they couldexpand their capacities by 45% for plywood, veneer,and block board industry and by 32% for sawnwood

    industry, if timber production level in the year 2020 isachieved.

    Pulp industry could expand its installed capacity sincethe year of 2009 and it could be even tripled if timberproduction level in the year 2020 is achieved.

    Wood as a source of energy:

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    ood as a sou ce o e e gyProjection of Indonesia energy mix (National Energy Policy, KEN)

    Non-wood forest products and forest services:

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    pChanges in environmental costs and forest stock value 2006-2020

    Forestry Outlook Scenarios: Comparison of Value Indicators

    Environmental Costs & Changes in Forest Stock Value

    -8,000

    -6,000

    -4,000

    -2,000

    0

    2,000

    4,000

    6,000

    8,000

    10,000

    S1 S2 S3 S4NPVMillio

    nsUSD

    Environmental Costs

    Change in Plantation Forest Stock (Value)

    Change in Natural Forest Stock (Value)

    Change in natural forest stocks implies change in natural forest capacity to provide NWFP andforest services so the future of non-wood forest products and forest services were addressedthrough estimating changes in natural forest stock values

    Over the period 2006-2020, total changes in environmental costs and forest stock value rangesfrom US$3.91 billions to US$7.48 billions, respectively. Of which, +US$0.25 billions to

    +US$0.29 billions is due to changes in natural forest stock value given the future state ofIndonesia forest resources in 2020

    Social functions of forests:

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    Social functions of forests:Direct employment generation over the period 2006-2020

    Given the future state of Indonesia forest resources in 2020, there would be also direct employmentgeneration in the range of 675-836 thousands even though there may be substantially larger

    numbers of people who are forest dependent and people who work in small-scale sawmills andother processed wood industries

    Forestry Outlook Scenarios: Comparing Employment Potential (but

    not indirect jobs)

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    1,000

    S1 S2 S3 S4

    AverageJobsp

    eryear(in1000

    Logging Ind. Timber plant. Pulpwood plant. Plywood ind.

    Blockboard ind. Sawnwood ind. Pulp ind.

    Recommended strategic actions and

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    Recommended strategic actions andpolicies:

    Strategic actions and policies focus on economic developmentand poverty alleviation options in degraded Production Forest,and promotion of environmental service delivery in degradedProtection Forest and Conservation Forest

    Options for economic development and poverty alleviation:

    Promoting community-company partnerships to open newkinds of benefit sharing for timber production to plantingmore trees for production/timber uses

    Promoting Community forestry, social forestry, cooperativesand Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs)

    Opening space for communities and smallholders to beinvolved in forest utilization and management with longertime horizons

    Providing technical assistance on management, models, andcross-learning

    Recommended strategic actions and

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    Recommended strategic actions andpolicies:

    Options for producing environmental services and benefits:

    Rehabilitating steep slopes and riparian land

    Supporting land re-classification that harmonizesslope/condition with function

    Reconfirming steep areas as watershed protection forests, incollaboration with local stakeholders and governments

    Considering high conservation value forests within theprotection forest areas as candidate areas for reallocationinto conservation areas, especially if they are part of criticalwildlife corridors or within the range of endangered orendemic species

    Recommended strategic actions and

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    Recommended strategic actions andpolicies:

    Options for Improving Governance and Management:

    Supporting Forest Monitoring and Assessment System(FOMAS) to improve transparency and rule of law

    Building capacity to carry out law enforcement

    Amending national laws and regulations to strengthen lawenforcement efforts

    Prosecuting those behind major forest harvesting,processing and transportation crimes to improve lawenforcement

    Reducing impacts of land clearing and the risks of fire Defining and marking boundaries to prevent encroachment

    and allow community self-policing

    Recommended strategic actions and

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    Recommended strategic actions andpolicies:

    Options for Improving Governance and Management:

    Developing and implementing a mechanism in all levels ofgovernment to address concerns, resolve conflicts, processgrievances, settle claims, and compensate for loses

    Supporting institutional development to help clarify roles andresponsibilities for district/province governments inmanagement, implementation, licensing, and monitoringactivities on forestlands

    Capacity building in regional government forestrybureaucracies

    Developing community-oriented and collaborativemanagement approaches to promote, establish, support andsustain dialogue and decision processes on the futureorganization and management of the forestry sector