Indonesia votes 2014 (1)

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Indonesia Votes 2014

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Indonesia votes 2014

Transcript of Indonesia votes 2014 (1)

Page 1: Indonesia votes 2014 (1)

Indonesia Votes 2014

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Indonesia’s national elections are fast

approaching…

• Indonesia's parliamentary (legislative) and presidential (executive) elections

will soon take place.

• The legislative elections will select parliamentary members.

• The executive elections will select the next president and vice president.

• The presidential election in July will coincide with the Muslim fasting month of

Ramadan, but this is unlikely to impact election schedules, as the second

round of the last 2009 presidential election also took place during Ramadan.

Legislative Elections on April 9, 2014

First Round Presidential Elections on July 9, 2014

*Due to Indonesia’s absolute majority vote system, the first round vote can be followed by a second round vote – with the two highest votes from the first round moving to a second round run-off election – if none of the candidates achieve an absolute majority.

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How voting works…

• The Indonesian General Election Commission (Komisi Pemilihan Umum or KPU), supervises and is responsible for carrying out elections across Indonesia.

• The 2014 presidential elections will be carried out in accordance with Law No. 28 of 2008 on the Elections of President and Vice President.

• The country is working towards e-voting in the hope of implementing the new system in time for the general elections.

• The basis of the e-voting system is electronic identity cards (e-KTP) which have been prepared since 2012 nationally, and have been trialed in six districts/cities, namely Padang (West Sumatera), Denpasar (Bali), Jembrana (Bali), Yogyakarta (Central Java), Cilegon (West Java), and Makassar (South Sulawesi).

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Who can run for President?

• The Indonesian political system

allows any eligible individuals to

run for president and vice

president.

• However, support from major

political parties is crucial in

determining their electability (a

minimum threshold must be met in

the legislative elections).

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Who can run for President?

• In reality, only candidates endorsed by major parties have a chance of competing, but parties will want to back popular candidates who can carry through the popular vote.

• Being a popular party is not enough. Indonesia’s presidential elections are still popularity contests. Personality really does matter. This is why a popular candidate backed by a number of smaller parties could still beat a less popular candidate backed by one of the major political parties – as long as the threshold is met, anything can happen.

• Short-term political trends can decide elections. For example, current President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, was not seriously considered as a serious presidential candidate until a few months before the election season commenced and his personal popularity grow.

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Political parties

• In recent years, the number of political parties contesting major elections has varied considerably.

• In 2004, 24 parties contested the national elections and 16 secured enough seats to be represented in the national parliament. Meanwhile, there was a significant increase of candidates in 2009.

• However, due to the regulation on the electoral threshold, since 2009 the number of parties eligible as contestants in the election has reduced. Of 38 parties participated in the national elections, only 9 were able to secure seats in the national parliament.

• Since 1999, the number of political parties that are eligible to contest the general elections fell from 48 to 12 in 2014 – an increasing consolidation of power among a few major parties.

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Political parties competing in 2014…

• This year, 12 parties will compete in the national elections and

three more have been authorized to run candidates in Aceh province*.

*The Aceh local parties’ participation is based on the Helsinki MoU between the Indonesian Government and Free Aceh Movement (GAM) to end conflict in the province.

• It is expected that the presidential candidates who hope to mount an

effective campaign will need to secure

the support of at least one of the major

parties as well as several other smaller parties.

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Which political parties are eligible to

compete?

To compete in the 2014 national elections, parties are required by

the KPU (General Election Commission) to have:

a regional chapter in every province in the country.

a chapter in at least 75 percent of each province’s regencies

or municipalities

a chapter in at least half of each regency’s or municipality’s

districts

at least 1,000 official members

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Indonesia’s national parties

Democrat National Party (NasDem) Party of the Functional Groups (Golkar)

National Awakening Party (PKB) Prosperous Justice Party (PKS)

Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra)

National Mandate Party (PAN) United Development Party (PPP)

Peoples Conscience Party (Hanura) Crescent Star Party (PBB)

Indonesian Justice and Unity Party (PKPI) Meanwhile, the three Aceh parties consist of Aceh Peace Party (PDA), Aceh National Party

(PNA), and Aceh Party (PA)

• Indonesia has 12 national parties. These parties are increasingly being consolidated into a smaller and smaller number of major national parties.

• For example, although there are a number of national parties only the PDIP, the Democratic Party and Golkar have large numbers of seats in parliament. Often even large parties have to go into coalition partnerships with smaller parties to field Presidential tickets in order to be eligible for the parliamentary seat eligibility threshold.

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Presidential candidates

• Speculation continues as to who will be Indonesia’s eventual Presidential candidate. There are a number of high-

profile candidates, some officially declared and some not.

• The front row contenders are Joko Widodo, known more commonly as ‘Jokowi’ from the PDIP and Prabowo

Subianto from Gerindra. For Jokowi to be able to run, he will first need the backing of PDIP party leader

Megawati Sukarnoputri (herself a past president and potential candidate for 2014). This is the ‘will he wont he’

soap opera that continues to transfix the Indonesian media.

• So far, other strong contenders include Dahlan Iskan*, Gita Wirjawan*, Hayono Isman, Jusuf Kalla, Megawati

Sukarnoputri, Pramono Edhie Wibowo*, Wiranto and Aburizal Bakrie. But anything could happen….

* Members of the party of Indonesia's incumbent President, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (who is term barred), the Democratic Party is languishing in the polls. These candidates are currently competing in the party’s convention to choose who will be the Democratic Party presidential candidate.

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Understanding the

parliamentary process

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The parliamentary structure

For the 2014 legislative elections, the total numbers of seats contested are

20,389 with the following breakdown:

The above figures include seats in the national, provincial, and district legislative assemblies. Indonesia’s newest

province, North Kalimantan, will not be represented in any of these assemblies until 2019.

* Indonesia’s parliament is technically the two constituent houses sitting in joint session.

Level Institution Seats contested

National People's Representative Council

Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat (DPR) 560

National Regional Representative Council

Dewan Perwakilan Daerah (DPRD) 132

Province

Propinsi

Regional House of Representatives Level I

Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat Daerah I (DPRD I) 2,137

Regency

Kabupaten/Kota

Madya

Regional House of Representative Level II

Dewan Perwakilian Rakyat Daerah II (DPRD II) 17,560

Total 20,389

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The national level: The People's Consultative Assembly (MPR)

The national level parliament, the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), is bicameral.

It consists of two houses:

the Lower House: the House of Representatives (Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat) with 560

seats

the Upper House: the Regional Representative Council (Dewan Perwakilan Daerah)

with 132 seats

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The national level: The People's Consultative Assembly (MPR)

• MPR is one of the highest state institutions in the Indonesian constitutional system.

• Members of the MPR consist of DPR and DPD members who have been

elected through general elections.

• Currently, the MPR is not part of the legislation process except for constitutional amendments. Before

the amendment of the 1945 Constitution, the MPR was acting as the Supreme Council of State.

• Today, the MPR’s position is equal

to other higher institutions such as the Presidency, DPR, DPD, Supreme Audit Agency (BPK), Supreme Court (MA), and Constitutional Court (MK).

• The MPR has the authority to amend and enact the Constitution, inaugurate the President and/or Vice President and may only dismiss the President and/or Vice-President during his/her term of office in

accordance with the Constitution. Based on 1945 Constitutional Amendments.

• The MPR shall convene in session at least once every five years in the capital of the state. This is when the

two houses sit jointly together, the MPR is in session.

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The provincial level: Provincial Legislative Assemblies

• At the provincial level, 33 of Indonesia’s 34 provinces have

their own Provincial Legislative Assemblies (Dewan

Perwakilan Rakyat Daerah-I).

• The add up to a combined total of 2,137 seats.

• Each province is subdivided into regencies or

municipalities - 508 in all - though only 497 of these have

their own District Legislative Assemblies (Dewan

Perwakilan Rakyat Daerah-II). A combined total of 16,895

seats are up for grabs at the district level.

*Jakarta’s six districts and North Kalimantan’s five districts will not elect District Legislative Assemblies in 2014.

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The national parliamentary election

campaign

• The campaign

period for the 2014

legislative elections

will start from January 11 to April 5

2014.

• These are some of the most recent polls

and predictions…

All tables reproduced with permission from Reformasi Weekly; see http://www.reformasi.info/

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The national parliamentary election

campaign

Indonesia has a number of rules in regards to national election campaigning:

• Outdoor rallies, banners, large meetings, and campaign advertisements in mass media will only be allowed from March 16 to April 5.

• Between January 11 and March 16, meetings can have a maximum of 1,000 attendees for lower house campaigns and 250 attendees for district or city campaigns; election authorities must be given prior notification of the meetings.

• Campaigning will cease four days prior to the election. Then, from April 6–8, there will be a “cooling-down period”.

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The national parliamentary election campaign:

The allocation of DPR seats

• How seats are allocated The House of Representatives is divided into electoral districts (a province, a district, and a combination of districts), and each electoral district has between three and ten seats.

• The voting process On voting day, voters receive a House of Representatives ballot containing a list of each party’s candidates who are running for a seat in their electoral district. Voters select their preferred candidate from the list. Each vote counts for both the party and the candidate.

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The national parliamentary election campaign:

The KPU (General Election Commission)

process

• KPU then calculates what is known as the “quota” for each electoral district.

• The quota is defined as the total number of valid votes obtained by political parties that meet the national threshold for parliamentary representation (3.5 percent of the national vote) divided by the total number of seats in that electoral district.

• A two-round allocation system is then used to determine the winning candidates.

THE TWO-ROUND ALLOCATION SYSTEM

In the first allocation round, parties receive a seat for each quota they meet, and the

votes used to reach these quotas are then deducted from the relevant party’s total.

Each party that receives seats is required to allocate them to whichever of its

candidates received the most votes. Some parties may not meet the quota, and every

party will have votes remaining.

In the second allocation round, the parties are first listed in decreasing order of their

remaining votes. The unallocated seats are then distributed one by one according to

this sequence until all seats are filled. In the unlikely event that two parties have the

same number of votes remaining when entering this round, the seat goes to the party

with the wider geographic distribution in the electoral district (note that it is impossible

for a party to receive more than one additional seat in this second round).

THE OPEN LIST SYSTEM

The open-list system was introduced in 2009 and is designed to do two things:

give smaller parties a fair shot at obtaining a parliamentary seat and force

candidates from the same party to compete against each other for votes.

Before 2009, Indonesia used closed-list proportional representation in which

votes were cast only for a preferred party. Seats were then allocated to parties

in proportion to the votes cast, and the party (not the voters) would choose

which of its members would represent the constituency

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The local parliamentary election campaign:

Provincial and District Legislative Assemblies

• The Provincial and District Legislative Assemblies have a similar seat allocation system, but a 2012 decision by the Indonesian Constitutional Court ruled that a political party does not need to meet the 3.5 percent national threshold to win a seat in these assemblies.

• Thus the quota for electoral districts at the provincial and district levels consists of the total valid votes cast in the district divided by the total number of seats in the district.

• Electoral districts for the provincial and district assemblies are made up of regencies/municipalities and sub districts, respectively, and have between three and twelve seats.

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The local parliamentary election campaign:

Regional Representative Councils

The Regional Representative Councils use a simpler voting system.

• Voters in each province choose one candidate on the provincial ballot, and the four candidates who win the most votes in each province then become representatives in the upper house at the national level.

• Although most candidates for these posts are affiliated with parties, their party affiliations are irrelevant because they serve on the assembly in a personal capacity and not as party functionaries.

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The Presidential

nomination process

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Presidential nomination requirements

• According to the 2008 election law, only parties or coalitions

controlling 20% of DPR seats or winning 25% of the popular

votes in the 2014 parliamentary elections will be eligible to

nominate a candidate.

• This law is unlikely to be amended before the 2014 elections.

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Presidential nomination requirements

• In the presidential election, Indonesians vote for a ticket that includes a president and vice president. The pair that receives more than 50 percent of the vote nationwide and more than 20 percent of the vote in over half the provinces wins.

• If no clear winner emerges in the first round, the two front-runners (that is, the two tickets that received the highest percentage of the national vote in the first round) compete in a run-off

election, which will be held in September 2014 if it is required. Of the three general elections after the reform era, only one in 2009 required a second round. For this year’s election, the government has not yet decided upon the timing for the second round.

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Who can run?

• Another issue with presidential nominations

is that they do not necessarily have to be

MPR members to run for office.

• Presidential candidates can be nominated

from all walks of life, from ex-generals, to academics, technocrats to dangdut

singers.

• Most of all, successful candidates need to be able to lead coalitions and unite

different factions. As has been discussed,

to run for president a nominee usually has

to be nominated by two or more parties to reach the required DPR seat threshold.

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After the election:

The appointing of Ministers and the Cabinet

• The appointment of ministers is the president’s prerogative right. The

president will determine and appoint ministers who will form the

government and run the country.

• The overall total of ministries is set at 34. There is no specific

requirement for ministerial appointments and they do not, for

instance, require approval by the DPR.

• Some appointments are usually from outside government and

political parties, for example technocrats or industry leaders.

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Potential Presidential

candidates and their chances

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WHO HOW CHANCES

Aburizal Bakrie

Billionaire and chairman

of Golkar political party

Golkar is a long-standing political party, once the political wing of the Suharto military

dictatorship. Of all of the Indonesian parties, it has the strongest and most well-

organized local and regional political base. Golkar is a member of the loose ruling

coalition. It is likely Golkar will emerge from the legislative elections as the largest

party; conceivably large enough to control the House without forming a coalition.

Golkar will be certain to field a presidential candidate and Bakrie is already confirmed

as its choice. The Bakrie family has a colorful reputation in business circles. The

challenge is for Bakrie the statesman to be perceived differently from Bakrie the

controversial businessman

In a presidential poll without Jokowi,

Bakrie has a chance, thanks to Golkar's

formidable electoral machine, of winning.

But his low opinion polling puts him in 3rd

place behind Jokowi and Prabowo

Subianto. There were signs that the party

was unhappy at the level of funding he was

providing the party leading to a media

squall he should be replaced (which calls

seems now to have dissipated)

Megawati Sukarnoputri

former President and

head of the PDI-P political

party

The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) is the party of the rural poor;

after Golkar it has a large and solid base. Megawati is the daughter of Indonesia's

founder, Sukarno, and (like the Ghandi dynasty in India) this gives more influence to

Megawati than her disappointing and underachieving one term as President (2001-

2004) suggests she deserves. As first Vice President of the democratic era, she

assumed the top office when President 'Gus Dur' was deposed in July 2001

(essentially at the behest of Indonesia's current president, then security minister).

Surrounded by a dense group of flattering acolytes that have prospered under

Indonesia’s favour-based politics, she may choose to run a third term. There are few

signs that she connects with Indonesia’s young voters

Still beloved by her close supporters, but

very few others, Megawati may have

passed her political prime. Some of her

biggest fans hope she will not stand “and

lose” again for the 3rd straight time. Logic

suggests she be 'Kingmaker' for Jokowi

but Megawati has an indefatigable

sense of her own destiny. Some talk of

Bakrie suggesting a PDI-P/Golkar tie-up

with him as VP, which might have legs

Prabowo Subianto

Head of the Gerinda

party. Controversial ‘tough

guy’

The former special forces general who has been alleged to have ordered human

rights abuses in the dying days of the Suharto military dictatorship that ended in 1998

(he also has a controversial reputation from his time commanding special forces in

occupied East Timor after Indonesia's invasion and suppression of the East

Timorese: currently on US visa ‘black list’ and that of some EU countries). Although

superficially a nationalist party, observers say he is the most 'can do' candidate to

speed up reform and will - if elected - do much to open Indonesia to foreign

investment and reduce the power of the oligarchs (who have a love/hate relationship

with him). Irrational when angry / formidable temper. Media barons fear he will

reintroduce press censorship

Gerinda may struggle to pass the DPR

threshold to field a presidential candidate

without buddying-up with another

candidate. But in a race without Jokowi

he could be the candidate to beat. The

Indonesian media (and their owners) fear

him and allege he will suppress free

speech (Indonesia, remember, currently

has the freest press in Asia). Equally

looks a winner if young voters don’t

turn out

The candidates: old establishment

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The candidates: political rock stars?

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WHO HOW CHANCES

Joko ('Jokowi')

Widodo

Governor of Jakarta

and member of the

PDI-P

A political rock star whose surprise win in the Jakarta gubernatorial elections in 2012

set off a political tsunami in Indonesia; underlining the dissatisfaction with the

current ruling political elite. Known as 'Jokowi' and a man of the people he is,

arguably, as yet untested in complex government but, given how many of the

electorate in 2014 are under 30, and given by then he'll have over 2 years of

gubernatorial experience, this is unlikely to stop him should he stand. As polls for

the April 9 DPR elections stand, PDI-P should be able to field its own candidate. If it

can't - and must buddy-up - we say it is very unlikely that Jokowi would accept being

anyone's VP (not even party-leader Megawati's), preferring to keep his powder dry

for 2019. Every other smaller party will want to be his VP candidate. In recent weeks

however there are signs that Megawati believes she is still the woman to lead

Indonesia (thwarting Jokowi) but this could be a bluff until the last moment

All polls to date suggest he is unbeatable as a

candidate for Presidency but Jokowi has been

gnomic and (we say) he will only stand if the head

of the PDI-P, Megawati, steps aside and asks him

to. This will require a humility on the part of

Megawati that will not come easy to her. That said,

only the election poll will count and in the fierce

heat of campaigning Jokowi might be outclassed

by Prabowo as a candidate and PDI-P outclassed

by the Golkar electoral machine

Wiranto

Head of the Hanura

party

Another former general with a controversial past: most seriously alleged by the UN

to have deliberately overseen human rights abuses in East Timor during Indonesia's

eventual withdrawal, which saw terrible massacres. Led the Indonesian Military

(TNI) during the downfall of Suharto and, paradoxically, is credited with not using the

Army to impose a new military regime (but is accused of orchestrating human rights

violations with Jakarta militias, especially against the Chinese community, in 1998).

Stood unsuccessfully as VP candidate in 2009 (on the ticket of former Vice

President and Aceh peace negotiator Josef Kalla). Was Golkar's presidential

candidate in 2004

The only thing that makes Wiranto a viable

candidate is the money and extensive TV media

machine from recent party convert, billionaire

media tycoon and extrovert, Hary (one 'r')

Tanoesoedibjo, who would be VP candidate if

Hanura passes the DPR threshold (which we think

unlikely). Could be someone’s VP candidate if

he delivers Hary T’s money (e.g. to Bakrie or

Prabowo)

Gita Irawan Wirjawan

Until very recently was

Minister for Trade

Once – but perhaps no longer – considered a 'rock star' amongst foreign investors,

this US-educated millionaire was the westernized foreign face that greets inward

investment. Some expressed frustration at his lack of ability to deliver, however, and

saw him as having more profile than power within the Indonesian government. His

resignation from office to pursue the Democrat candidature was controversial. Fans

say he is 'rich enough not to have needed corruption’. Critics dislike his agitprop

economic nationalism and he stands criticized for supporting vested interests in

areas like food import quotas in order to curry favor with the Democrat party power

base

All the things that made Pak Gita popular with

foreigners conspire against grass-roots popularity

in Indonesia. His gambit to lead the Dems is to say

he can connect better with Indonesia's young

electorate than the President's brother-in-law,

General Pramono (and this may be true). The fact

he is still mostly perceived as corruption-free may

also be attractive to a party currently imploding

under the weight of corruption investigations of its

leading members

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The candidates: the family firm

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WHO HOW CHANCES

Pramono Edhie Wibowo

Former armed forces

chief and brother-in-law of

the current president

Some observers of Indonesian politics say the current president, Yudhoyono,

is steering the wreckage of his party to be a family dynasty, as his Democratic

Party tumbles ceaselessly in the polls. The troubled Dems have been holding

a confusing and ill-defined Primary process to select their candidate for 2014,

and Pramono is widely touted for the role. It is a cliché of Indonesian politics

to say that voters prefer a general. This was true for Yudhoyono's two wins in

2009 and 2004 but, arguably, that was an older generation of voters who had

just lived through 30 years of military dictatorship and, in the early ‘000s, when

Indonesia seemed on the edge of splintering chaos. No sign younger voters

feel this today. Wibowo looks like a family favorite to be a DP candidate in the

unlikely event the Democrats win enough votes in the DPR to field their own

presidential candidate

Being Yudhoyono’s brother-in-law makes him a

safe pair of hands for the Yudhoyono family –

keeping the place warm for a future son to stand

perhaps - but does not add to his electability; nor

perhaps does being a former general in a country

where so much of the electorate in 2014 will be

under 30 years old and have not served in the

military. Unlikely to win presidency if a

candidate (and polls currently suggest the

Democrats may not pass the DPR threshold to field

their own candidate, without buddying-up with at

least one other party)

Hatta Rajasa

Chairman of the PAN

party and Coordinating

Minister for the Economy.

His daughter is married to

one of the current

president's sons

Rajasa is a fascinating figure. A modernizer who is closest to political

Islamists, and a social conservative who is also passionate about modern art,

but it should be noted that his name is being brought up in a current corruption

scandal more often than is wise for a would-be president. Some controversy

too over how leniently his son was treated by the courts, having been charged

with vehicular manslaughter. That said, he would be a formidable campaigner

(his campaign machine has been in place for months). Mining and oil & gas

foreign investors are highly suspicious of him (which probably helps him

electorally). The Economist and its ilk will likely not write kindly of him, come

the time, but they don’t have a vote. Among – with Jokowi - the most

economically-nationalist of all the viable candidates but he also has a

reputation as a can-do minister

PAN may struggle to win enough votes to field its

own Presidential candidate. His supporters would

love him to be VP candidate in a Jokowi/PDI-P

presidential bid (but it is hard to see what Jokowi

would gain from this); more likely to be a VP

candidate with with Bakrie/Golkar or

Prabowo/Gerinda. We think he could be just the

chap to be VP on a Prabowo ticket which, in a race

without Jokowi, could beat a Megawati/Bakrie

ticket.

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• Whoever wins the next election faces a number of significant policy challenges.

• It is also uncertain as to what policy direction the new president will take, as many of Indonesia’s politicians and political parties fail to articulate a detailed “manifesto” during the election period.

• For business, understanding the new government and the new policy landscape will be a substantial but crucial public affairs challenge.

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Stephen Lock

Edelman Indonesia

[email protected]

THANK YOU