Indonesia : Sustaining Momentum, Driving Competitiveness, adn Inclusiveness by Lukita D. Tuwo
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Transcript of Indonesia : Sustaining Momentum, Driving Competitiveness, adn Inclusiveness by Lukita D. Tuwo
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The Hague, 13 September 2013
Dr. Lukita Dinarsyah TuwoVice Minister of National Development Planning/
Vice Chairman of the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas)
Republic of Indonesia
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Steady High Economic Growth and Increasing Per Capita Income &GDP
Source: Bappenas , BPS, World Development Indicators
Economic Growth 2004 – 2012 (%)
GNI & GDP Percapita 2003 –
2012 (US$)
impact of global
financial crisis
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Declining Open Unemployment and Poverty
Open Uneployment 2004 – 2013 (Feb)
Source: Bappenas , BPS,
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Annual Inflation Rate 2004 – August 2013
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Declining Government’s Debt to GDP Ratio
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Demographic Dividend
Indonesia has one of the world’s youngest demographic profile, with 60 % of population below 30 years of age. The ratio of children (0-14 years) and elderly (over 64 years) to the productive population has declined to 45 %
today from 75 % in 1975. By 2025, 67 % of the population will be betwen 15 and 64 the most productive years. It is essential that the
real incomes of the most productive population continue to rise in order to maximize the benefits of this demographic devidend.
Source: BPS
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In 2012 : 53% live in urban area.
In 2025 : projected 65% live in urban area
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FAST GROWING URBANIZATION
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Dare to Dream…
“Imagination will carry us
to worlds that never were.
But without it we go nowhere.”
Carl Sagan
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MP3EI: Vision 2025
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GDP: US$ 700 Billion Income/capita: US$ 3,000
GDP: US$ 4.0 – 4.5 trillion Income/capita: US$ 14,250 – 15,000 (country with high income)
2025
2045
GDP: US$ 15.0 – 17.5 trillion Income/capita: US$ 44,500 – 49,000
~ 10 world largest economies~ 10 world largest economies~ 9 world largest economies~ 9 world largest economies
2011 – 2014 economic growth: 6.4 – 7.5%
2015 – 2025 economic growth:7.5 – 9%
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.
Increase value, adding and expanding value chain for industrial production processes, and increase the efficiency of the distribution network.
Encourage efficiency in production and improve marketing efforts to further integrate domestic markets to push for competitiveness and strengthen the national economy.
To push for the strengthening of the national innovation system towards an innovation-driven
economy
MP3EI: 3 Main Elements
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SSources of Wealthources of Wealth……
Wealth of TheWealth of TheNationNation
““Competitiveness”Competitiveness”ProduProductivityctivity
InnovationCapacity
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1 KE Sumatera
2 KE Jawa
KE Bali – Nusa Tenggara3 KE Kalimantan
KE Papua – Maluku 4 KE Sulawesi
Economic CentreMega Economic centre Special Ec.Zone SEZ + FTZ
DenpasarDenpasar
MataramMataram
JakartaJakarta
MedanMedan
PekanbaruPekanbaru
JambiJambi
LampungLampung
SemarangSemarang
BanjarmasinBanjarmasin
PalangkarayaPalangkaraya
PontianakPontianak
MakassarMakassar
ManadoManado
KendariKendari
GorontaloGorontaloManokwariManokwari
JayapuraJayapura
1
2
3 4
SerangSerang
MamujuMamuju
IMT-GTIMT-GT
BIMP-EAGABIMP-EAGA
SurabayaSurabaya
MeraukeMerauke
KupangKupang
SamarindaSamarindaSofifiSofifi
WamenaWamena
SorongSorong
AmbonAmbon
PaluPalu
Banda AcehBanda Aceh
PadangPadang
BengkuluBengkulu
JogjakartaJogjakarta
PalembangPalembang
Tj. PinangTj. Pinang
Pkl. PinangPkl. Pinang
6 Economic Coridors : Commodity Based Comparative Advantage
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6
5
5
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ECONOMIC
DISTANCE
Padang
Singapore
Balikpapan
Makassar
Jayapura
Padang
2.7
Singapore
1.0
Balikpapan1.3
Makassar1.7
Jayapura3.4
GEOGRAPHICDISTANCES
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Connectivity Challenges
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15.32
13.67
15.61
11.70
14.08
4.88
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00
Jabotabek
Surabaya
Medan
Makassar
Indonesia (Avg)
Japan
Logistics Costs 15.32 13.67 15.61 11.70 14.08 4.88
Jabotabek Surabaya Medan MakassarIndonesia
(Avg)Japan
Sources: LPEM-UI
3,5% 5,0% 5,7% 5,9% 7,1%
96,5% 95,0% 94,3% 94,1% 92,9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Nasional Asing
Logistic cost relatively high, on average 14,08% of sales. National shipping line share very low (International Shipping: National 7,1%,
Foreign 92,9%; Domestic Shipping: National 79,4% , Foreign 20,6%).
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LOGISTIC COST
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“Efforts and courage
are not enough
without purpose and
direction.”
John F. Kennedy
What direction we are heading…
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GLOBAL COMPETITIVE INDEX : Improve substantially in 2013/2014
2012/2013 2013/2014
TOTAL 50 38
1. Basic Requirement 58 45
a. Institution 72 67
b. Infrastructure 78 61
c. Macro Econ. 25 26
d. Health & Primary Educ. 70 72
2. Efficiency Enhancers 58 52
(Higher educ., market efficiency, labor, financial market, technology)
3. Innovation & Sophistication 40 33 16
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Economic:Economic:Increased Increased value addedvalue added
Facilitate Facilitate acceleration of acceleration of bussines sector bussines sector investment investment
Promote Promote R&D R&D InnovationInnovation
Integrate Integrate sectoral and sectoral and regional regional developmentdevelopment
Government Government Role : Role :
regulator, regulator, facilitator and facilitator and
catalisatorcatalisator 17
SUSTAINABLE GROWTH WITH EQUITY
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Wind of Change...
"It is not the strongest of the species
that survives, nor the most intelligent;
it is the one that is most adaptable to
change.“
Charles Robert Darwin (1809-82)
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