Indonesia Energy Transition Dynamic and The Prospect of NPP

By

Dr Tumiran.

❑The Board Member of The National Energy Council of

Indonesia, 2009-2014, 2014-2019

❑Board Expert Chair, Indonesia Smart Grid Association

❑Chairman of The Jury of The Indonesia Best Electricity Award, 2015, 2016, 2017,2018,2019

❑Expert board member, Indonesia Electricity Association

❑Board Expert of Indonesia Electricity Magazine,

❑Dean of Engineering Faculty, Gadjah Mada University (2008-2012)

Indonesia : consist of more than 17.000

Island, with population of 265 Million

Introduction : Based Line Energy POLICY

❑ World energy supply in the future is oriented to consume much more green and clean energy sources

❑ Increasing Energy Consumed to 2040 in Asia Pacific Region will be dominated by China, India, and south

east Asean Region

❑ Indonesia as part of Asean Country is an archipelago consisting of over 17000 islands with a population of

about 262 million.

❑ Currently Indonesia's economy is being pushed to accelerate economic growth in various sectors.

❑ The main objective of encouraging its economic growth is accelerating job creation, enhancing the

nation's competitiveness

❑ The energy sector is believed to be the main sector to drive its economic growth along with the

acceleration of infrastructure development such as, new road and highway development, addition and

construction of new railways, construction of new bridges and build and renovate port in many islands.

❑ The development of energy to 2050 is guided by The National Energy Policy to 2050 which has been

established through government regulations No. 79/2014 and approved by the parliament.

❑ It is projected that in 2050-year Indonesia's energy demand will reach 400 MTOE with the composition of

energy mix which consists of 22 % gas, 25% oil, 30 % coal and new and renewable energy will reach at

least 23%. By 2050,

❑ the national energy demand will reach 1,000 MTOE with energy mix composition consist of 24 % of gas, 20%

of oil, 25 % of coal and 31 % of new and renewable energy

CURENT SITUATION

❑ In line with energy demand growth and to optimize in managing of its

energy resource, Indonesia Parliament and the Government has set up a

new law in Energy (law no. 30, 2007).

❑ Based on this law, now Indonesia has had an Institution to manage its

National Energy Policy. This Institution is called as The National Energy

Council (NEC) and In Indonesia is Called DEN. Indonesia

❑ Indonesia has had National Energy Policy to 2050, declared as

Government Regulation PP. No 79/2014

❑ For action plan as the guidance to the Ministerial level for implementing

NEP, The president of Republic Indonesia has issued the President

Regulation No. 22/2017

❑ In line NEP guidance, Regional Province must set-up The Regional Energy

Planning which it called RUED Province

❑ Based on this, NEC has responsible to monitor for implementing them.

Energy Consumed

Energy Consumed

Energy Consumed

Energy

Consumed

Year

• Economic growth

• Population Growth

• Industrial Growth and creating job

• Offices, building, apartement and

hotel growth

• Better social welfare

• Culture lifestyle change

Factors affecting

demand growth

Factors Affecting Energy Demand Growth in

Indonesia

Covid-19

Impact (-??)

Optimistic scenario

Pesimistic Scenario

ENERGY MIX TARGET TO 2050

46%

18%

31%

5%

25%

22%

30%

23%

20%

24%

25%

31%

Energy Total: 194 MTOE

Power Plant: 51 GW

Energy Consumpt: 0.8 TOE/cap

Electricity Consumpt: 776

KWh/cap

2013 2025

Energy Total: 400 MTOE

Power Plant at least : 115

GW

Energy Consumption: 1.4

TOE/cap

Electricity Consumption:

2.500 KWh/cap

Energy Total: 1.000 MTOE

Power Plant at least : 430

GW

Energy Consumption: 3.2

TOE/cap

Electricity Consumpt:

7.000 KWh/cap

2050

NREOilGasCoal

a. Consume of gas increase

b. Consume of coal increase

c. Consume of oil increase

d. Contribution of RE Increased

Government Effort to accelerate the Use of RE

23%

in

2025

INDONESIA New

and targeted

Hydro

Biofuel

Waste

to

energy

Geo-

thermal

Solar

PV

Wind

Energy

Tidal

Energy

Government

efforts to achieve

the goal• One Door One Stop Permit Policy

• Financing scheme

• Fiscal incentive

• Tax policy

• Campaign

• R&D

• etc

Local business

/community

/universityForeign

investors

/consultants

/community

/university

Nuclea

r: ???

EnergyEfficiency

Gas, Renewable, and Nuclear

Environment and Low Carbon

Security

Economy

Sustainability

In the Context of

Nuclear Energy

Balance of Security, Economy and

Environment Sustainability

Security Economy

Sustainability

Environment and Low Carbon

Continuity/ Energy

Efficiency

Gas, Renewable, and Nuclear

The selection of energy

sources depend on:

1. energy resources

2. Pricing

3. Sustainability of

supply

4. Characteristic

supply needed

5. Distribution area,

6. Environmental

consideration

7. Political decision

8. GDP of the country

Asia pacific Countries Dominated in

Energy Consumed

According to IEA projection Scenario,Asia Pacific Energy Demand Growthwill be dominated by

❑China

❑India

❑South East Asia Countries

Chinas Electricity Power Capacity and Electricity Production Development

Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Installed Capacity

(GW)

Thermal

Nuclear

Hydro

Wind

PV (Sun)

Biomass and

others

1,378

932 (67%)

20 (1,4)

304 (22%

96 (6,9)

24,8 (1,7%)

1,88

1,525

1,005 (65%)

27,2 (1,7%)

319,5 (20,9)

130,7 (8,5%

42,2 (2,7%)

0,853

1,650

1,060 (64,2)

33 (2%)

332 (20,1%)

147 (8,9)

76 (4,6)

1,777

1,104 (621)

35,8 (2,01)

343 (19,3)

163 (9,1)

129 (7,2)

1,899

1,143 (60,1)

44,6 (2,3)

352 (18,5)

184 (9,6)

174 (9,1)

Production (TWH)

Thermal

Nuklir

Hydro

Wind

PV (Sun)

Biomass and

others

5,680

4,302 (75,7%

133 (2,3)

1,060 (18,6%)

159 (2,7

23 (0,4%

0,545

5,739

4,230 (73,7%)

171 (2,9%

1,112 (19,3%)

185 (3,2%

39 (0, 6%)

0,147

6,022,

4,327 (71,8%)

213 (3,5 %)

1,174 (19,4%)

240 (3,9 %)

66 (1,1%)

6,417

4,555 (70,9%)

248 (3,8 %)

1,193 (18,5 %)

303 (4,7 %)

116 (1,8 %)

6,994

4,923 (70,3%)

294 (4,2%)

1,232 (17,6%)

366 (5,2% )

177 (2,5 %)

consupti

on

Industry 5,693 4,964 5,163 5,492 5,875

Residential 693 728 807 870 9685,639 5,693 5,971 6,362 6,844

58

Gwe

in

2020

Po

pp

ula

tio

n

aro

un

d o

f 1,5

M

Ele

ctr

icity C

on

sum

ptio

n

>4500

Kw

H/c

ap

ita

Total

NPP:

127 GW

NPP Prospect in Indonesia

In the scenario to reach the target of NRE to 23% in 2025 and 31

% in 2050 in the National Energy Mix, it is almost impossible

without supporting by NPP in the context of : continuity, reliability,

quality, security of supply and pricing.

Related to that, in NEP, in article 11, paragraph 3 has been

stated that shall be utilized by taking account the security of the

national scale, reducing carbon emission and keep prioritizing

the potential Renewable Energy according to its economical

values, as well as to consider it as the last option by paying close

attention to the safety factor.

Pemilihan Sumber Daya Energi Primer

Ketersediaan local, regional atau impor

Penguasaan dan karakteristik konversi (continuous atau intermitten)

Struktur cost yang ekonomis

Kharakteristik demand yang mau di pasok

❑ Batubara❑ Gas❑ BBm

NUKLIR

ETHydro

Panas BumiBio-massBio-fuel

PVWind

Proces Konversi, Efficiency, production cost

Energy Sources:

1. Fossil

Coal, Gas and Oil

2. Renewable Energy

Geothermal

Hydro

Wind

Sun

Waste

Bio

Tidal

etc

3. Nuclear : PWR, BWR (uranium)

Memerlukan Teknologi process konversi yang

berbeda dengan sumber daya energi yang

berbeda. Menghasilkan efisiensi yang berbeda

dan kharakteristik out-put yang berbeda

Punya

karakteristik

yang

berbeda

beda,

pengaruh

alam sangat

kuat

Bagaimana Meletakkan Nuklir di

dalam komposisi energi mix:

1. Keamanan/Security : limited resources gas, batubara, minyak, ET yang continues

2. Ekonomis/Teknis: memerlukan listrik kapasitas besar dancontinue untuk mengejar ketertinggalan ekonomi: nuklirsifat continue dapat mengggantikan fungsi fosil, based load. EBT lian kecuali panas bumi bersifat intermitten untuksaat ini.

3. Keberlanjutan/Lingkungan: Indonesia dapat memaksakantidak memerlukan nuklir, walaupun ET bisa mencapai 31% di tahun 2050, tetapi ketergantungan batubara akan terusmeningkat, emisi Co2 akan terus meningkat.

4. Sustainable Development: Indonesia memelukanpengembangan wilayah, memerlukan energi listrik yang besar, penciptaan lapangan kerja

The Answer is Indonesia Need NPP

Political Support

₋ Government has already made efforts to involve public in providing input, advice and recommendations with

respect to the use of nuclear science and technology,

especially a plan to build NPPs. However, it is not

optimal yet and all should be involved

₋ In the discussion of National Energy Policy Design the House of Representatives and in particular Commission

VII (energy, science and technology, and the

environment), a strong support to the introduction of

nuclear power plant is given.

Regarding the IAEA Milestone Guideline for

Introducing NPP, The present status of the

Indonesian Program is entering the Second Phase:

“ Project Decision Making”.

Indonesia was done feasibility study, continuation

of site selection and evaluation, strengthen the

public acceptance and HRD.

But until now Indonesia has not set up NEPIO

(Nuclear Energy Program Implementation

Organization) yet.

Addressing of Infrastructure Issue

THANKYOU